Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None here today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either.
NOT UPBEAT
CoreLogic says the housing market was soft in January and February, with the value growth rate slowing.
NOT DOWNBEAT
The February ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment survey reports consumer confidence rose another 1 point in February to 94.5, driven by a lift in perceptions of future conditions. But, worryingly, the same survey shows inflation expectations lifted for a second month, up from 4.3% to 4.5%. Consumers don't think inflation is tracking the right way.
THE BRAKES ARE ON
The value of building consents issued for new housing was down -$4 bln in the January year as building consents for new housing sank to their lowest level in five years. Townhouse and apartment consents are still falling faster than standalone house consents. Elevated build costs, higher interest rates, and yet-to-recover house prices continue to discourage investment in new housing.
EVEN WEAKER
Even though there was a flurry in January, non-residential building consents are falling even faster year-on-year, as developers retreat. The non-residential sector accounted for less than half of total consents in January, and that is for the first time in two years.
CAN YOU HELP US?
We're running a car insurance survey to start revealing how premium costs are shifting by insurer, a crowd-sourced attempt to bring increased transparency to the insurance sector. Feel free to share the survey with others in your wider friends and family groups (and on social media)
SHINING A LIGHT ON INDIVIDUAL BANKS ...
For readers who use our key bank metrics tool, note that we have updated the data to December 2023 (from the RBNZ Dashboard resource). One this this revealed was a fall in profitability at ANZ in Q4. The tool also enables a deep inspection, by bank, of many other key metrics.
AND FOCUSING IT ON BANK PERFORMANCE
We have also updated our Bank Leverage resource, shining a long light on bank performance. Savers especially can het some high level views on individual banks from these tables.
LOOKING AHEAD
In a note to clients, Westpac strategists say markets now view forward rate prospects that the hiking cycle has ended and an easing cycle will be next. They say that "the NZ swap curve remains inverted, but less so than a few months ago. We expect this disinversion (or steepening) to continue for much of this year, eventually resulting in a positively slope curve between 2yr and 10yr."
RATINGS RATIONALE FOR ANZ'S PREF SHARE ISSUE
S&P says they will assign the expected 'BBB' long-term credit rating to the perpetual preference shares that ANZ New Zealand proposes to issue. (The preference shares will qualify as additional Tier 1 capital. That is five notices below ANZ's AA- institution rating, a one notch deduction for the subordinated status of the capital instrument, another two notches for the risk of partial or untimely payment, and another two notches for their expectation that the Australian government is unlikely to support these perpetual preference shares.
MORE MEDIA WOES
TVNZ has reported a -$16.8 mln loss for the six months to December 2023. It is very tough in traditional medialand, especially when Facebook/Google/Social all feast free and eat your lunch.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed again today. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate recovered a minor +1 bp to 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.14%. The China 10 year bond rate has stayed down at 2.38%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to 4.82%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.75% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.26% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now down to just on 4.64% and so that key inversion is still -38 bps.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late trade today, and will probably end the week down -0.2%. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in early afternoon trade heading for a +1.1% weekly rise. Tokyo has opened up +1.8% and if that holds will end its week up +1.4%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open heading for a weekly loss of -1.0%. Shanghai is also little-changed and if that holds it will book a +0.5% weekly rise. Yesterday's late session gain helped. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.5% on the S&P500 index.
OIL UNCHANGED
Oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday, now just on US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at just on US$82/bbl.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2044/oz and up +US$9 from this time yesterday.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has slipped slightly from this time yesterday, now at just on 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now still just on 70.1 today and also unchanged.
BITCOIN STOPS RISING
The bitcoin price has stalled today, now at US$61,109 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.6% today.
Daily exchange rates
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Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
50 Comments
The sooner this govt Start cracking down on beneficiaries who abuse the system the better, hang on, is this the biggest beneficiary piss take so far. He's taking us taxpayers for a ride.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/benefit-mansion-christopher-luxo…
Just so I understand, he owns 7 freehold properties and has chosen to charge the tax-payer $52k pa - the first PM to do this in 34 years.
He clearly doesn't need the money and is laying off people left right and centre.
This is terrible judgement on his part, maybe god told him to do it?
I don't believe he "thinks" he's taking the public for a ride, but I think he's tone deaf and doesn't understand how this looks. Which is not good. And he had the opportunity to steer perceptions away from the grift.
He really blew this early. Much like Team Cindy.
Problem is that his corporate career is probably to blame to some extent. Less so at Unilever (even though everything would have been paid for in his CEO role - accom, kids' private schools, wining and dining) and definitely at Air NZ. Behaviors become ingrained. Even though he's not doing anything wrong 'legally'. Like Nancy Pelosi and her stock trades.
Poor judgment any way you look at it, but politically undeniably dumb. He is still new to parliament but heavens above he should have known better than to lead with his chin on this one. As well, his inner circle, advisors or whatever, must be acting little better than the three blind mice.
I know that Labours 6yrs profligacy is going to take a decade to recover from (as is the case with every Labour Govt since Douglas). And that most politicians are rorting as much as possible.
That's irrelevant: Luxon just hung his hypocrisy around his neck forever.
Yep, to talk about Labour using New Zealanders as an ATM and then making us pay $52,000 per year so that he can *checks notes* live in his own house which is mortgage free.
I will repeat what I've been saying for about a year now, he is the worse National leader in living memory.
Labour’s “profligacy” is a direct result of John Key’s national party from 2008-2017 not putting any funding into social services or state sector buildings.
labour builds what it can and gets accused of “over spending”
national then comes in and cuts everything back to the bone. Voters notice that things are turning to buggery and go back to Labour
Labour begins the painstaking process of undoing National’s dodgy deals and takes ownership. Ends up having to spend thrice what would otherwise be required had National actually spent money
ad nauseum
the ferry debacle is the most relevant example. All National had to do to save $1bn was to pass legislation dictating Kings Wharf as the site of the new terminal, but no, lets just kick the kan down the road and wait for the inevitable disruption on SH1 and sell it off because “private sector will do better”.
when, since 1984, has the private sector EVER done better in NZ at delivering social goods and services? Absolutely no time at all. I refer you to Toll.
I understand the Green Party has some sort of retirement scheme for their MPs where they get the allowance, rent their Wellington apartment off the scheme, and get the profit kicked back to them at exit. Or something like that.
Does anybody have accurate info on that.
Then there is interest deductibility angles as well. Several angles as well
Try this IT Guy. It's old news, but it would good to know the update.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/33953/green-party-to-sell-super-fu…
Been watching the clock have you agnostium? Excited? Waiting to post your daily anti Nat post? At least you are consistent.
I have no problem with it. He has to live somewhere decent. And it's irrelevant that he owns or rents or has a mortgage or not. If he did not have to stay in Wellington, he probably would not have bought it anyway.
Are you one of the Wellington useless crew who were incapable of maintaining Premier House? Or even keeping the leaks out? Which even Grant Robertson said had eau du 80's motel
KH - You've gone down several notches in my estimation.
There is a world of difference between dispassionate appraisal of fact, and pre-held bias. Usually traceable to assumptions, and the unwillingness to reject same via research.
Irrespective of political hue, the guy is a klutz. Lacking nuance - lacking antennae. Key had both in spades and survived; this fellow hasn't and is doomed. Won't be there in 3 years.
And that's BEFORE and external pressures come on - global war (over what's left), major weather events, global recession/collapse...
the apple does not fall far from the tree.....
but they are all on the make, did Ginny Anderson rent her own building as a MP office?
That said do I need super... probably not, but have I paid WAY MORE tax then most... sure thing.... I think I DeSErvE it... so will take it.
Via Linkedin (Madison Reidy). Hardly confidence instilling.
Big debt bills are forcing commercial developers to sell millions worth of property.
Auckland's largest office owner Precinct Properties has sold about $700m worth, while Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP), managed by Northwest has sold $220m and Argosy Property Limited recently $20m.
"When interest rates revert as fast as they have, and when values come down ... You’ve got to stay in front of it." Precinct CEO Scott Pritchard told me.
But he has a solution - offshore investors.
Watch the full episode on YouTube here: https://lnkd.in/gG-ChJXx
next summer we revert to yields that are cash flow positive in resi... be prepared winter is coming
its all a cycle, but be quick or you may miss out HA HA HA... bag holders going to suffer here for buying at the top
Gold here is still cheap, and if things blow up with taiwan and china its a great insurance policy
It would be nice for MPs to be treated the same as most other employees. You have to pay for your housing, bills, food, most transport to work (except required business trips), you are expected to live where your job is and if WFH that location needs to be paid for and secured by you. If you are required to have a mobile for communication you pay for the costs of it in general and the ongoing bills. Most health costs are also paid by you (even funded insurance does not cover most of them, many are denied health insurance outright in NZ and often does not cover preexisting conditions). You know the same level of personal responsibility required for below minimum wage funded health workers. Health workers face more danger in the course of their jobs and at home as well as police and teachers. Yet we don't treat them with even half the support required to do their jobs and pay for the cost of living. Which is why many need a partner to help fund them, especially for housing. Yet MPs are the highest paid of all public services and trot out the woe is me lines.
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