A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rates changes, housing softness deepens, building consents weak, consumer sentiment holds, swaps hold lower, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None here today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today either.

NOT UPBEAT
CoreLogic says the housing market was soft in January and February, with the value growth rate slowing.

NOT DOWNBEAT
The February ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment survey reports consumer confidence rose another 1 point in February to 94.5, driven by a lift in perceptions of future conditions. But, worryingly, the same survey shows inflation expectations lifted for a second month, up from 4.3% to 4.5%. Consumers don't think inflation is tracking the right way.

THE BRAKES ARE ON
The value of building consents issued for new housing was down -$4 bln in the January year as building consents for new housing sank to their lowest level in five years. Townhouse and apartment consents are still falling faster than standalone house consents. Elevated build costs, higher interest rates, and yet-to-recover house prices continue to discourage investment in new housing. 

EVEN WEAKER
Even though there was a flurry in January, non-residential building consents are falling even faster year-on-year, as developers retreat. The non-residential sector accounted for less than half of total consents in January, and that is for the first time in two years.

CAN YOU HELP US?
We're running a car insurance survey to start revealing how premium costs are shifting by insurer, a crowd-sourced attempt to bring increased transparency to the insurance sector. Feel free to share the survey with others in your wider friends and family groups (and on social media)

SHINING A LIGHT ON INDIVIDUAL BANKS ...
For readers who use our key bank metrics tool, note that we have updated the data to December 2023 (from the RBNZ Dashboard resource). One this this revealed was a fall in profitability at ANZ in Q4. The tool also enables a deep inspection, by bank, of many other key metrics.

AND FOCUSING IT ON BANK PERFORMANCE
We have also updated our Bank Leverage resource, shining a long light on bank performance. Savers especially can het some high level views on individual banks from these tables.

LOOKING AHEAD
In a note to clients, Westpac strategists say markets now view forward rate prospects that the hiking cycle has ended and an easing cycle will be next. They say that "the NZ swap curve remains inverted, but less so than a few months ago. We expect this disinversion (or steepening) to continue for much of this year, eventually resulting in a positively slope curve between 2yr and 10yr."

RATINGS RATIONALE FOR ANZ'S PREF SHARE ISSUE
S&P says they will assign the expected 'BBB' long-term credit rating to the perpetual preference shares that ANZ New Zealand proposes to issue. (The preference shares will qualify as additional Tier 1 capital. That is five notices below ANZ's AA- institution rating, a one notch deduction for the subordinated status of the capital instrument, another two notches for the risk of partial or untimely payment, and another two notches for their expectation that the Australian government is unlikely to support these perpetual preference shares.

MORE MEDIA WOES
TVNZ has reported a -$16.8 mln loss for the six months to December 2023. It is very tough in traditional medialand, especially when Facebook/Google/Social all feast free and eat your lunch.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed again today. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate recovered a minor +1 bp to 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday at 4.14%. The China 10 year bond rate has stayed down at 2.38%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to 4.82%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.75% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.26% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now down to just on 4.64% and so that key inversion is still -38 bps.

EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late trade today, and will probably end the week down -0.2%. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in early afternoon trade heading for a +1.1% weekly rise. Tokyo has opened up +1.8% and if that holds will end its week up +1.4%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open heading for a weekly loss of -1.0%. Shanghai is also little-changed and if that holds it will book a +0.5% weekly rise. Yesterday's late session gain helped. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday session up +0.5% on the S&P500 index.

OIL UNCHANGED
Oil prices are little-changed from this time yesterday, now just on US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now at just on US$82/bbl.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2044/oz and up +US$9 from this time yesterday.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has slipped slightly from this time yesterday, now at just on 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now still just on 70.1 today and also unchanged.

BITCOIN STOPS RISING
The bitcoin price has stalled today, now at US$61,109 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.6% today.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».