Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ trimmed -10 bps from its 6 month and 1 year fixed home loan rate offers. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also trimmed -10 bps from some of its key term deposit rates. It now has only one offer at 6% (nine months), all the rest below. The Co-operative bank raised its 3 month rate +10 bps to 4.30% but cut its one year rate -10 bps to 5.85%. First Credit Union has changed rates too, today, as has Credit Union Auckland.
GROWTH LOW OR NEGATIVE
Payments network Worldline (ex-Paymark) said April was another tough month for retailers, but slight improvements are showing in some sectors. Spending through Core Retail merchants in their network slowed again, with growth rates across most retail sectors remaining low or negative.
"DON'T SEE FUTURE GROWTH"
ANZ Investments has reportedly told clients it is throwing in the towel on its $3 bln FUM wholesale funds business (about 10% of their overall business), shutting it down by the end of August. This won't have any impact of its main retail funds management business dominated by its KiwiSaver schemes.
FURTHER DECLINES
New motor vehicle sales declined further in April, but in line with the usual trend of a softer month for what is the start of the financial year for many. At 9,238 registrations, April is -9.2% lower than April 2023 and -5.1% lower than April 2022. On a year-to-date basis, 2024 is -10.4% lower than 2023, 23.9% lower than 2022 and 27.4% lower than 2021.
CASH ACCESS WITHERS FAST
The RBNZ is becoming increasingly worried about the distribution challenges of cash as that traditional payment method withers. It is a particular issue in rural communities, and it seems the problem momentum is rising faster than they expected.
YOU SHOULD USE A PASSWORD MANAGER FOR YOUR BANK LOGIN
Use a password manager for internet banking. Details here.
PARTY DONATION INFLATION HIGH
The Electoral Commission has released its 2023 party donation and loan returns data. It shows TPM got $161,000 in donations, NZ First $1,877,000 in donations plus a $225,000 loan, ACT got $4,263,000 in donations (no loans), the Greens got $3,315,000 in donations (no loans), Labour got $4,769,000 in donations (no loans), and the National Party got a massive $10,383,000 in donations (no loans). Three parties that did not win any seats outraised TPM. All up it is close to $26 mln in donations for the 2023 election campaign. It is interesting that Labour+Greens raised 80% of what the Nats got. You might expect the Nats to top the list and parties of the Left to struggle. But they did surprisingly well at fundraising. In 2020, the total donated was only $8.7 mln.
ASB, BNZ ON TRACK FOR FIRST OPEN BANKING API DEADLINE
Payments NZ, the company that governs NZ's core payment systems, has published an update on where the big four banks are at in terms of implementing the first API open banking standard. Payments NZ, in which the four banks are shareholders, set a deadline of May 30 for this. Payments NZ says only BNZ and ASB are assured of meeting the deadline, with ANZ and Westpac having actions in progress to try and meet the deadline. The four banks are in identical positions for the second deadline of November 30.
LOANS FOR A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION
In addition to low-interest EV personal loans and home-loan top ups to help consumers make their homes more energy-efficient, Westpac has launched "a new Sustainable Equipment Finance Loan" with "a competitive five-year rate for business customers". But their release gave no indication of any discounted interest rate for these business equipment loans. Supposedly the costs of these loans is covered by the "savings" from the related sustainability projects.
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be on the soft side to end the week. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 60 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate holding during their holiday at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps to 4.87% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.91% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.58%. Their 2yr is now at 4.88%, so the curve is shallower at -30 bps inverted.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% today and heading for a weekly rise of +0.8%. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade and also heading for a weekly +0.8% rise. Tokyo is closed for a holiday. Hong Kong is up +1.2% in early Friday trade. Shanghai is also closed for a holiday. Singapore is up +0.4%. The S&P500 ended its Thursday session up +0.9% and for the four trading days this week is down a net -0.7% with one day to go for the week.
OIL HOLDS SOFT
The oil price is soft again today from this time yesterday, down about -50 USc at just over US$78.50/bbl in the US, while still just over US$83.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$19 from yesterday, now just under US$2300/oz.
NZD HOLDS FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has risen another +½c over the past 24 hours, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up almost +½c at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69, and up about +20 bps.
BITCOIN RECOVERS SOMEWHAT
The bitcoin price has risen to US$59,413 a +3.5% recovery from this time yesterday. But it is down a net -7.9% from this time last week. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.2%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
81 Comments
The oil price is soft again today
One commenter has been posting repeated warnings about oil prices rising to new highs, leading to higher inflation and higher for longer interest rates, to conclude that NZ house prices will collapse a further 40%. Be careful who you listen to.
Commenters should be careful what they wish for.
BREAKING: Reuters reports that 'Russian military personnel have entered an air base in Niger that is hosting U.S. troops' after the West African country asked Washington to withdraw its military personnel from the country. Link
:), so says TASS !
Yes, we must thank Vlad for reinvigorating the MIC. Something to spend the last resources on. Just what the planet needed on entering biosphere collapse and economic decline, a little fascist empire builder sending his mindless drones on a mission to thieve someone else's property on a huge scale.
....a little fascist empire builder sending his mindless drones on a mission to thieve someone else's property on a huge scale.
Insert no-context-added link to some ad-riddled tankie doomer blog as a reply.
But seriously, with that sort of comment you won't be getting any rubles deposited into your account next week.
Yes, one has to be careful of Tass and RT but Tass is quoting a Frenchman Emmanuel Todd. What his credentials other than historian and anthropologist is something else. Saying its from Tass can mean its possibly propaganda. Is Emmanuel Todd a Russian stooge? I don't know but to label its from Tass and hence straight out propaganda is questionable.
Who is that, Yvill?
I haven't noticed anyone making that comment - seriously.
Who is it?
It sounded like an amalgamation of various inaccurate punts about what'll happen.
No, it's a specific commenter who's name escapes me at the moment, he has repeated this several times in the last few months.
What-a-Wally?
Imagine a fairy godmother says you can be king of the land but on one condition. What’s that?, you ask. Okay every morning you must wake up and front the people, look them in the eye and tell them that the awful little court jester whom you hate is doing a wonderful job as ambassador. No matter how stupid or ignorant the comments made by the jester…he is working extremely hard and doing a wonderful job as ambassador. Now where’s that crown?
The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps to 4.87% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.91% and up +1 bp from yesterday.
Note the OECD’s new fiscal deficit forecasts (third row from bottom) and how little progress they see being made in closing that large gap. Link
6 bev units in light commercial , vs over 3000 ice units.
Some work to do here if we are going to crack our emission targets.
"If the Jefferies analysis is correct (and we believe it is), then an EV will reach carbon-emission parity with an internal-combustion vehicle just as its battery requires replacement. "
More than one lifecycle study over recent years has concluded this.
It is hard to take them seriously when they say that a battery becomes unusable after 200k on the clock. Modern EVs aren't Leafs.
I also bet they only take into account of the CO2 from burning petrol, not extracting and refining too.
You're better than posting links like that Audaxes
Better? Yet to observe that?
Yeah, so many errors in that BLOG,I stopped reading after 2 paragraphs.
Why repost this nonsense?
Comfort?
Though, personal car travel is still a bit unfeasible to prioritise for the future, from the looks of wider reading. Looks like shared transport modes will be more in the reach of average folk.
"How Hipkins hid the $400 million school move blowout
The Post reports:
As parents, teachers and community leaders shivered together on that wintry morning, the project was already in trouble: costs had blown out from an estimated $63m to a staggering $405m.
$400 million to move two schools is just crazy. That is almost a cost of $200,000 per student!"
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2024/05/how_hipkins_hid_the_400_million_scho…
Loser school boy politician hides enormous failure (this is one of many). Not surprising, and of course, no comment from him. Barking at passing cars is much more important for him, and probably more relevant given his intellect.
ANZ "throwing in the towel" on its 3 billion of funds under management. Ah yeah right, selling off the business and goodwill is more than llikely to make a poltus of cash.
Kiwibank and the taxpayer is probably the target buyer. As a 7 percent return, ANZ get 15 years of income paid up-front as a lumpsum.
Retired-Poppy would the capital gain on this transaction be taxable or non-taxable under inland revenue depts intention rules?
More likely is that ANZ Investments doesn't offer a compelling service to the competitive wholesale market and the funds were leaking out the door anyway. Kiwisaver is much less competitive, particularly if the fund manager is owned by the same crowd who owns a Kiwisaver platform...
Shouldn't labour+ greens donations be compared to National + Act, as opposed to National alone?
I still want to know why the "we are the best at business" parties get such a comparably poor ROI from their spend. Not very good are they.
I would say Luxon's likeability in what has become presidential style elections. Shouldn't be that way but it is.
For Act, most nzers just don't like their policies.
Agreed.
I think if National had run a more likeable candidate (e.g. someone like Erica Stanford but with a bit more experience under the belt) it would have been an ass-whoppin' of prime 1989 Mike Tyson proportions.
Chippy is hardly that likeable himself - if polling data is much to go on - but if I had to be stuck on a plane next to either you best believe I'd be channeling my inner Lower Hutt bogan.
In other words, National won in spite of Luxon, not because of him. He's never going to be a John Key (wealthy, detached guy who can somehow mix it as an 'everyman' when it counts).
Don't mind Luxon at all. Have not agreed with all policies, but never would for any party.
But Luxon is straightforward and clear.
?
I don’t mind him either. But he seems a bit deceitful to me - comes across as very centre but loves hanging out with nutbars like Seymour and Brown.
Agreed.
Given that Act is National's party to attract the further right than National are, I question why Act and National are ever considered separate parties.
" TPM got $161,000 in donations, NZ First $1,877,000 in donations plus a $225,000 loan, ACT got $4,263,000 in donations (no loans), the Greens got $3,315,000 in donations (no loans), Labour got $4,769,000 in donations (no loans), and the National Party got a massive $10,383,000 in donations (no loans)."
And there you have it folks, $16M for NACTNZF vs $8M for Labour/Green/TPM.
That's how you buy an election and why we're seeing all the donations having to be paid back in fast track/ no debate / no regulatory impact statements: e.g. tobacco, landlords and real estate industry, ICE trucking, landbankers, etc...
Would be great to get the breakdown of big donations to see who is going to be paid back big time. I'm not surprised Shane Jones wants more power, he's got a lot of promises to funders to keep.
Winton will be wanting plenty in return for their 100k donation.
Fast-track of ‘Sunfield’ in Takanini incoming….
100% . Our reputation for not being particularly corrupt is about to take a hit. At least it might boost some Chinese/Russian/Iranian investment
That's about as analogous as likening 7% inflation to Weimar era hyperinflation.
$6 for every voter
Some likely resonance in that outcome. Courtesy of the late Mike Moore’s not cryptic warning - don’t piss ‘em off.
Where is the issue. It was clear the loser Labour Party needed to be routed, totally. People stumped up to make it happen and the job was done. That’s how it works. Obviously people realises TPM were a bunch of crackpot racist and the donations reflect that, ie no one supports that sort of nonsense.
Pot, kettle.
Your really are indoctrinated, eh?
Sad.
That one almost overloaded my irony meter.
Not really, it basic math. The right had an objective, got organised, funded it, and did it. Not so many people were interested in what the left were offering, they didn’t get the funding, support and they didn’t have the talent, and they lost. It happens all around the world, all the time. Private and public sector. If you lose and you have a dumb idea and less funding it’s obvious why, and hardly corruption as you seem to think. Only the exceptional win with less funding than their competition (Team New Zealand being one of these). They have exceptional talent and they win with less resources. Labour and the Greens and TPM are hardly in that category and so they lost. Badly.
Electric flying taxis to arrive by 2025
https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/127572/electric-air-taxis-are-way…
As I read this article, I was wondering if Interest readers were in favour of pioneering new technologies and exciting new directions for mankind, if most people understood that, we have modern transport, medicine, communication etc... today because a few adventurous people dared to dream about a better future....
Reading the comments section, it's clear that the majority of commenters are a sad bunch of old farts who have long ago let go of their childhood dreams and adventure.
Self driving cars ... Need I say more?
Yes, say more, what's your point ?
They were meant to be here in NZ by now, taking over the whole place. I haven’t seen any, and I doubt I’ll see one in the next 5 years, and I doubt they will make up a significant proportion for 30+ years.
And when we do get them they’ll cause more issues than they solve.
JJ, the difference between the 1% successful people and the other 99%, is that successful people accept that there are challenges and obstacles to overcome in any new endeavour, whereas the other 99% say: "Oh well, I tried, it didn't work". Later on, they blame their situation (I wasn't born at the right time is a perennial favourite) and point out how "luicky" the 1% of successful people who didn't give up, were.
if elon could achieve that it would reduce car ownership overnight, like he says most cars only get used for a small percentage of the day and the rest of the time parked up but with driverless tech they would all be available as ubers when not needed and with such a big fleet supply would force pricing down to such a level that a lot of people would not bother to buy a car
Except that small percentage of the day most people need to use a car is at the same time, i.e. at the beginning or end of the work/school day. The same times the cars' owners needs to use them.
If you wanted an efficient way to commute people without them driving themselves, public transport stomps all over self driving cars.
Except that public transport only goes to one place, and if you dont want to go to that place you have to spend twice as long going to that place and then changing to another bus/train (or two, or three) to finally get to the place you want to go. And if you need to go to two or three different places (eg. daycare dropoff, then school dropoff, then work) then you have no chance of doing that unless you leave at 5am in the morning.
However, rideshare software can solve the problem of too many cars on the road at peak times. Determining who in the area is requesting a ride to the same place you want to go, and then picking up both of you (this actually already exists now in the Uber app). So the number of cars on the road will be reduced, and it will be much more time efficient and convenient than using public transport and spending hours trying to get anywhere.
You also wont have to sit around bus stations waiting to be beaten up or stabbed. Bonus.
Who knew childish dreams could trash the planet so completely?
Population growth trashes the planet, not dreams. Seriously, are you not a little bit ashamed of having no dreams?
It's 2024 dude. We want to complain how bad everything is, and completely ignore how amazing it is at the same time.
Tear it all down!*
* So long as I can keep or improve the amount of amenities I have.
Well, sorry for not jumping on the complaining bandwagon
Do dreams need to be new technological inventions?
I am more interested in the dreams of authors, poets, musicians, artists, philosophers
I think ancient wisdom is far more inspiring than most tech things. But that’s just me
So each to their own ey Yvil?
You enjoy 21st century dental though, right?
The evolution homo sapiens is undertaking is exponential in its speed increases. We are undertaking large epigenetic change in years that would previously taken thousands, if not tens of thousands of years.
It's not the be all and end all, but it's also fantastic and remarkable to watch where we can take it.
If you're wanting life in a more visceral sense, then throw your phone in the river.
Flying cars are not 21st dental, they are more like electric pepper grinders
They're all bi-products of the same mechanism.
We can't really pick and choose what we get based on what we prefer, or don't want. It's an all or nothing type deal.
Much ancient philosophy is aware of this.
HM, dreams certainly don't need to be in technological inventions, they can of course be in any field.
Yvil complaining about the commenters on here again? Yawn.
It makes a change from his usual rant ... "the majority of motel guests are a sad bunch of old farts who have long ago let go of their childhood dreams and adventure."
He's posting from Bali again
If silicon is prone to make your dreams come true
You could probably say the same thing about nightmares too
LOL. Swaps tell the story.
Wondering why your power bill is increasing? You'll never see this on the MSM
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/law-regulation/gentailers-spend-180m…
There's an ugly word for these "facilitating payments"
Edit: discussed in detail here
https://theplatform.kiwi/podcasts/episode/craig-stobo-on-nzs-decline-in…
I am not surprised that the gravy train rolls on......
The tribes have "power". Oh what a great big rod we've made
They must not have much faith in the incoming fast track process then. Or does it not cover consent renewals?
Was pre election - I've just edited to post another link with more detailed commentary on this
They’re just gaming the system same as anyone else would. This is what we’ve created for ourselves.
Im amazed that corruption isn’t rampant given how obstructive and expensive the system has become.
that is what they want a user pays regime in NZ so why are you surprised when people have worked that out and are jumping on the gravy train.
Corruption in this field of grievance is rampant - and one of the architects was the arrogant twat Chris Finlayson supported by a PM named John Key who allowed the UN declaration to be signed and changed the Foreshore and seabed Act
a pox on them both
the nice words are "marketing expenses"!
Because business desk is not MSM?????
Wonder if people would notice without the words Ngai Tahu hapu there acting as a trigger.
Notice the other recipients weren't named.
Incredible value in the hydro schemes. Just a pity it reflects negatively in the average consumers bill due to capture further up stream.
The NZD is holding its own 59.80
who said it would be plunging
People who aren't aware exactly how dire it is, most other places.
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