A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; ANZ & others changed retail rates, various reports of decline, RBNZ worried about cash, swaps soft, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ANZ trimmed -10 bps from its 6 month and 1 year fixed home loan rate offers. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ also trimmed -10 bps from some of its key term deposit rates. It now has only one offer at 6% (nine months), all the rest below. The Co-operative bank raised its 3 month rate +10 bps to 4.30% but cut its one year rate -10 bps to 5.85%. First Credit Union has changed rates too, today, as has Credit Union Auckland.

GROWTH LOW OR NEGATIVE
Payments network Worldline (ex-Paymark) said April was another tough month for retailers, but slight improvements are showing in some sectors. Spending through Core Retail merchants in their network slowed again, with growth rates across most retail sectors remaining low or negative.

"DON'T SEE FUTURE GROWTH"
ANZ Investments has reportedly told clients it is throwing in the towel on its $3 bln FUM wholesale funds business (about 10% of their overall business), shutting it down by the end of August. This won't have any impact of its main retail funds management business dominated by its KiwiSaver schemes.

FURTHER DECLINES
New motor vehicle sales declined further in April, but in line with the usual trend of a softer month for what is the start of the financial year for many. At 9,238 registrations, April is -9.2% lower than April 2023 and -5.1% lower than April 2022. On a year-to-date basis, 2024 is -10.4% lower than 2023, 23.9% lower than 2022 and 27.4% lower than 2021.

CASH ACCESS WITHERS FAST
The RBNZ is becoming increasingly worried about the distribution challenges of cash as that traditional payment method withers. It is a particular issue in rural communities, and it seems the problem momentum is rising faster than they expected.

YOU SHOULD USE A PASSWORD MANAGER FOR YOUR BANK LOGIN
Use a password manager for internet banking. Details here.

PARTY DONATION INFLATION HIGH
The Electoral Commission has released its 2023 party donation and loan returns data. It shows TPM got $161,000 in donations, NZ First $1,877,000 in donations plus a $225,000 loan, ACT got $4,263,000 in donations (no loans), the Greens got $3,315,000 in donations (no loans), Labour got $4,769,000 in donations (no loans), and the National Party got a massive $10,383,000 in donations (no loans). Three parties that did not win any seats outraised TPM. All up it is close to $26 mln in donations for the 2023 election campaign. It is interesting that Labour+Greens raised 80% of what the Nats got. You might expect the Nats to top the list and parties of the Left to struggle. But they did surprisingly well at fundraising. In 2020, the total donated was only $8.7 mln.

ASB, BNZ ON TRACK FOR FIRST OPEN BANKING API DEADLINE
Payments NZ, the company that governs NZ's core payment systems, has published an update on where the big four banks are at in terms of implementing the first API open banking standard. Payments NZ, in which the four banks are shareholders, set a deadline of May 30 for this. Payments NZ says only BNZ and ASB are assured of meeting the deadline, with ANZ and Westpac having actions in progress to try and meet the deadline. The four banks are in identical positions for the second deadline of November 30.

LOANS FOR A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION
In addition to low-interest EV personal loans and home-loan top ups to help consumers make their homes more energy-efficient, Westpac has launched "a new Sustainable Equipment Finance Loan" with "a competitive five-year rate for business customers". But their release gave no indication of any discounted interest rate for these business equipment loans. Supposedly the costs of these loans is covered by the "savings" from the related sustainability projects.

SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be on the soft side to end the week. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 60 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday, now at 4.46%. The China 10 year bond rate holding during their holiday at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps to 4.87% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.91% and up +1 bp from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.58%. Their 2yr is now at 4.88%, so the curve is shallower at -30 bps inverted.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.2% today and heading for a weekly rise of +0.8%. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade and also heading for a weekly +0.8% rise. Tokyo is closed for a holiday. Hong Kong is up +1.2% in early Friday trade. Shanghai is also closed for a holiday. Singapore is up +0.4%. The S&P500 ended its Thursday session up +0.9% and for the four trading days this week is down a net -0.7% with one day to go for the week.

OIL HOLDS SOFT
The oil price is soft again today from this time yesterday, down about -50 USc at just over US$78.50/bbl in the US, while still just over US$83.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$19 from yesterday, now just under US$2300/oz.

NZD HOLDS FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar has risen another +½c over the past 24 hours, now at 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up almost +½c at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69, and up about +20 bps.

BITCOIN RECOVERS SOMEWHAT
The bitcoin price has risen to US$59,413 a +3.5% recovery from this time yesterday. But it is down a net -7.9% from this time last week. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/-2.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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