Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Co-operative Bank trimmed a few short rates today. And both AMP & Gold Band Finance trimmed their TD rates today too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
"REALISTIC" = LOWER
Asking prices are dropping on Trade Me Property with thousands more homes for sale compared to a year ago. The portal (which unlike realtors, makes its money from listing fees whether it sells or not) is warning anyone selling will need to have realistic price expectations to achieve a sale.
STILL WEAK BUT SUPPLY NOW MATCHES DEMAND
Our jobless rate in Q1-2025 came in below expectations by staying at 5.1% s.a. Wage pressures were also muted in the March quarter. And just for the record, the 'actual' (not seasonally adjusted) number of people unemployed as at March 2025 was 167,300, up from 143,500 a year ago and up from 109,900 two years ago. The extra 57,000 now jobless is equivalent to half of the population of Lower Hutt.
A NEW THREAT TO FINANCIAL STABILITY
The RBNZ says the trade war threatens financial stability. Tit-for-tat tariffs between China and the US could cause a slowdown in the New Zealand economy and put pressure on indebted households and businesses they say in their half-yearly Financial Stability review.
NZX UPDATE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed so far today. That means it is up +3.2% for the past week, down -5.0% since the start of the year, and up +5.0% from this time last year.
DRIVEN BY MORTGAGE GROWTH
BNZ said it's profits rose +4%, partly because they wrote back some excess provisioning they had taken earlier in anticipation of a deeper slowdown. It also said it's mortgage lending rose +5.6% in the year to March and that compares with the industry average (RBNZ C5) of +4.2%.
DAIRY PRICES RISE STRONGLY
The overnight full dairy auction brought higher prices, up +4.6% in USD terms and up +3.0% in NZD terms. Of note, the butter price hit a new all-time record high of US$7992/tonne. Also, cheddar cheese rose a very sharp +12.0% from the prior full event, and the dominant WMP price was up a heady +6.2%. This has been a very positive outcome, even if it was on relatively low off-season volumes.
LOWERING RATES TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMY
In China, their central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by -50 basis points, injecting about ¥1 tln in liquidity into their domestic economy. But the cut won't come until May 15 and will then be the first RRR cut in 2025. They also said they will lower the rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 10 basis points to 1.40%, effective tomorrow, Thursday, May 8. This is the first cut to this key policy rate since September 2024 and could lead to cuts in market and other regulatory rates.
THEY MIGHT START TALKING
And despite denials on both sides, both China and the US said they will meet in Switzerland to discuss stuff. Interestingly, the Chinese side will be represented by their lead person for China-US economic and trade affairs, but the US side won't be led by its USTR, but the more senior Treasury Secretary.
LONG TERM BREACHES UNCOVERED & SANCTIONED
In Australia, regulator ASIC said it has imposed additional conditions on Macquarie Bank's Australian financial services licence after multiple and significant compliance failures – some going undetected for many years and one for a decade.
SWAP RATES LIKELY STEEPENING
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed today at the short end but lower for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.40% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.32%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 4.56% and was up +4 bps to 4.56% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.30%, down -1 bp.
EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE EXCEPT WALL STREET
The NZX50 is up +0.3% today, and the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is unchanged in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9% while Shanghai is up +0.6% in its return both sensing positivity due from the upcoming trade talks. Singapore has opened down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade down another -0.8% on the S&P500.
OIL RECOVERS MORE
The oil price is down another +US$1.50 at US$59.50/bbl in the US, and US$62.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE SLIPS BACK
The carbon price is has dipped -$1.25 to NZ$50/NZU and again on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$29/oz from yesterday at this time to US$3389/oz, in a rising phase.
NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 52.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.2, and up +20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is at US$96,486 which is up +2.2% from the price this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate, also at +/- 2.2%..
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3 Comments
In more positive news
The feijoas are the size of hand grenades this year
Where I am people are giving them away for free on the side of the road. Literal wheel barrows of them.
I texted my wife "Got feijoas" when she was shopping, which she read as "Get feijoas". Somehow they are $9 a kilo in PaknSave, a real price gouge given people can't give them away. Long story short, now we have like 50 of them, so have been scoffing 5 or 6 a day.
You must be down south? In AKL all my fruit is fairly meagre this year, I assume because of the long dry period over summer
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