Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ jumped ahead of the RBNZ and cut its variable rate by -25 bps. It also trimmed all of its fixed rates and some of the key ones are now market-leading. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There were no term deposit rate changes today. But if, as expected, the OCR is cut tomorrow, almost all institutions will be cutting their call and savings rates by about the same amount. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NEW MORTGAGE ACTIVITY TAKES A DIP IN APRIL
Latest Reserve Bank figures show that on a seasonally adjusted basis, new mortgage commitments were down last month, although the figures were the highest for an April month in four years.
LOW EQUITY LENDING GAINING IN POPULARITY
Just over 40% of mortgages approved to first home buyers in April were low equity loans, according to updated RBNZ tracking data. That is the highest proportion since these records began in 2014 (apart from the similar level in January 2025). Of all new housing loan commitments in April one in eight were for low equity lending, the highest level in any month since November 2013.
A RISING CLAIM ON TAXES
Our analysis of the 2025/26 budget reveals the Government is planning to spend $177.3 bln in that upcoming July-to-June year. The largest single dollop is for NZ Super which will cost $24.7 bln or 13.9% of all commitments. That is up from 13.5% in the year about to end, and 12.7% five years ago. Each 0.1% is now extra spending of more than $175 mln, so it adds up quickly. (For reference, this Budget allocates $112 mln for our Security Intelligence Service.)
RECORD PROFITS
The RBNZ released its summary of bank profitability for the March 2025 quarter, reporting a three month overall profit of $1.991 bln. That is a record for any month. For the year to March, that is $7.5 bln after tax, up +3.6% from the same four quarters in 2024. For the March quarter alone, those tax-paid profits are up +5.3%. Interestingly, these rising profits come as net interest margins tighten. In March they were 2.32%, the lowest since June 2022. We will get to see how the individual banks performed when the Dashboard is released for the same period at 3pm tomorrow (in the shadow of the MPS press conference).
KIWIBANK, AIR NZ ENDING AIRPOINTS PARTNERSHIP
Kiwibank and Air New Zealand are ending their Airpoints credit card partnership on October 31, with customers to be shifted to a platinum Visa card after that. Kiwibank is blaming Commerce Commission regulation of Visa and Mastercard interchange fees. A broader oversight of the regulation is available here, with a look at how Visa and Mastercard operate in NZ here.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
It will be worth checking in tomorrow morning on how the overnight GDT Pulse dairy auction fared, because the derivates market signals are all over the place. They suggest SMP could rise more than +3%, but that WMP may take a big tumble, down -10%. We'll see soon enough.
BUYING BACK FROM FOREIGN INVESTORS?
Market speculation, which first surfaced in The Australian, is that a2 Milk is readying a major purchase of production assets in New Zealand. One speculation is that it could involve the Chinese-owned Yashili capacity here.
NZX SLIGHTLY FIRMER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. But it is down -0.6% for the past week, down -3.8% since the start of the year, but up +7.0% from this time last year. The Warehouse, Vulcan Steel, Heartland, and Freightways lead the gains, as SkyCity casino, Oceania, The NZX, and Fletcher are the main decliners.
MONOPOLY POWER
Auckland Council-owned Port of Auckland has surprised the freight industry by announcing that port access charges for road transport operators in 2026 will be increased by +77%. The Port’s previously announced a +35% increase for 2026 so this is effectively a doubling of that.
CHINA FACTORIES HOLD ON WELL DESPITE THREATS
Profits at China’s industrial firms rose +1.4% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same four months in 2024, picking up from +0.8% growth in the January–March period. For April alone, that was a rise of +5.2% from April 2024. Having noted that, April 2024 was a weak base.Still, given the trade challenges, and that China's factories are still very export oriented and vulnerable to trade war risks, this has to be seen as a good result in the circumstances.
SETTLING DOWN
We should probably note that South Korean consumer sentiment jumped in May, rising back to levels that were common in November 2024 and prior. The ugly confusion period when its president went full-Trump and tried a palace coup (which resulted in impeachment, one that was upheld by the courts) is now behind it and Koreans are breathing easier. The rule of law won against a power grab. That is the way things are supposed to work in democratic civilised society. (I'm looking at you, America.) South Koreans will vote in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, June 3.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates may be a little lower at the short end today in advance of tomorrow's OCR deceision. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.27% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.34%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.61% and was down -5 bps to 4.59% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.49%, down -6 bps.
EQUITIES LANGUID
The NZX50 is up just +0.1% so far today in an easing trend, and the ASX200 is up a mere +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.2% in early Tuesday trade. Hong Kong has fallen -0.3% at its open while Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street is on holiday for their long Memorial Day weekend, returning Wednesday NZT. The S&P500 futures are up +1.2% at this time. The futures market isn't signaling much conviction however.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is little-changed at just under US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is slightly low, down -70c today at NZ$54.30/NZU with slightly more volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS MARGINALLY AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$9/oz from this time yesterday at US$3342/oz.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.5 and -30 bps softer from yesterday.
BITCOIN DIPS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is at US$108,299 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest again at +/-1.0%.
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55 Comments
Japan has officially lost its status as the world’s top creditor for the first time in 34 years. The shift reflects global economic trends: Europe, led by Germany, is gaining influence as Japan’s corporate expansion strategy faces headwinds from currency weakness and rising liabilities.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/05/224d19e2e0ff-japan-loses-sta…
Phew, times are tough, but at least our precious banks are doing OK. Well worth the $2,000 a year per capita profit (before tax). Kia kaha bankers.
CBA on the ASX up 45% in past 12 months. CBA now represents a whopping 11% of the ASX 200, making it a major beneficiary of flows from passive index-tracking funds and ETFs. Superannuation funds have also been significant buyers.
How much longer can the super issue be kicked down the road?
Our politicians are being negligent in ignoring this - it's their job and the media need to start calling them out on it.
"Wrightson added that NZ has the eighth lowest pension cost in the OECD (which has 38 countries as members) and NZ was in the lowest quartile for expenditure." (%of GDP)"
A fact never mentioned by the multitudes of NZSuper naysayers reneging on the social contract committed to by those who spent their lives paying taxes to support their own parents super entitlement.
Both National and Labour know that if one of them should even suggest any significant change that would be negative to either age of entitlement or payment then that is immediate self destruction in the electorate. Both National and Labour know though that it cannot carry on as is. Both National and Labour need to put aside their political machinations and manoeuvring, be responsible and arrive at an accord. Therefore after the following election it will be legislated with or without any of the minor parties in parliament.
As the boomers have rapidly pulled the ladder up behind them on housing, the result is a lot less babies, so a lot less workers to pay for those pensions going forward, the ratio's are turning downward quickly. Add to that the increased life expectancy and that something like 100k pensioners still have over $100k in just INCOME (note without means testing assets) and you might find the young have little time for "the social contract" written when all of those things were different.
A pensioner earning >$100k pa is still paying enough income tax to cover their own Super. And while working a lifetime building the assets that now generate that income they paid for several others as well.
Exactly, people shouldn't be mad at pensioners still earning an income, they should be mad at pensioners who have no other assets or income at the end of their working life.
It's not about being mad at anyone. It's about who needs government welfare to live a reasonable life. It's not a rewards scheme, it's to provide dignity to those who otherwise wouldn't have it.
No it's not. It's a universal superannuation scheme. Distinctly different to what you describe.
Yes it is, for now.
Yes it is, for now.
But not for long I’d wager. And not long enough for it to be there when I’m 65. So no. Don’t give a shit about any ‘social contract’ construct.
16 cents of every tax dollar is needed to pay for it. And soon 20. And then 25.
Do we value universality that much?
And that's only super
IIRC, 45 cents out of every tax dollar goes to an over 65.
Future investment?
16 cents of every tax dollar is probably collected from superannuants.
https://www.ird.govt.nz/-/media/project/ir/home/documents/oia-responses…
Looks like around 12.5% (2020 most recent year available)
16% back in pensions alone.
Plus big chunk of health, and then regular other government services. They really do consume a lot. So if you're earning well, and don't really need the pension yet, then it seems fair to delay receiving it until you really need it
There would be other taxes paid as well, like GST. I don't see that in the figures.
It'd be rat and mice stuff.
The aging population ramifications are pretty grim all round. If you look through ACC figures, there's an explosion in claim costs, length of rehabilitation time (close to never), and claimants over 65 - basically ACC is wearing the cost of old people hurting themselves, never recovering, and receiving various forms of care indefinitely from ACC.
Taxing out ACC, as an overflow from the elderly taxing out the public healthcare system.
Other taxes such as GST and company tax was mentioned as being possibly significant.
Not in relation to younger demos.
Between getting support from ACC or the public system (which doesn't pay people compensation) naturally you can see which they would prefer to be under. Add in comorbidities for complexity to cases, demand on specialists blowing out leading to longer wait times to be seen, longer recovery timeframes from injury and surgery due to age, it makes sense everything is blowing out. Heck even health insurance often won't pay out unless someone is declined by ACC 1st.
They're not 'generating' anything. Or 'building' anything that doesn't require entropy to be staved off either - that doesn't demand ever-more maintenance per time, in other words.
They're merely claiming the right to chew into the remaining parts of the planet.
And the best parts have gone already.
And hiding behind the lie - and it is a lie - that money will always be a store of value (so they can pretend not to be scr-wing the chances of future generations, when handing then digital nothings instead of a stocked planet). It's theft, and this Government is more guilty than most.
You itchy at all, KKNZ? Dogs, fleas and all...
Everything requires the flow toward entropy. Nothing complex would exist without that. Your "philosophy" is just another form of Marxism that uses resources instead of the means of production.
We would all be peasants receiving a meagre ration of energy portioned out by absolute lunatics.
"When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff."
Cicero
I wondered where Winston Peters got the idea from.
Only because they are on secondary tax, because super is considered primary income. Which is to say, they aren't contributing because they are getting almost as much in payments from the government as they are paying tax, so a net drain, given all the extra health services they use.
If you earn over 100k, you shouldn't be getting super, it's really, really dumb that we have a system setup the way we do. There should be an income threshold where you are considered able to look after yourself financially after 65. If your income suddenly disappears (like you retire from your job), then you should be able to instantly go on super. AND if you decide to start working again and earn over the threshold (I know 2 people that were way too bored on super, so started working again), then super should stop once you are earning over the threshold again. A flexible opt in/out system with an income threshold should be the bare minimum we look at. If I had it my way if you had over about $4m in assets, then it should also not be available.
Super is paid by current workers, this fantasy that "I paid my taxes and there was a social contract" stuff is going to bankrupt the country. If we want most people to have a retirement scheme, then we better start planning for it, because the path we are on indicates it is quickly becoming unaffordable.
Yes, I think this is one of those situations where if the generation currently in power do not do some sensible rebalancing, the next generation will do it on their behalf and be rather harsher.
Simple things like not offering benefits to people earning double the average wage, or those with multi-million dollar property portfolios, shouldn't cause too much hardship.
The so called boomers entered adult life with the shadows of two world wars interspersed with a the great depression that hung over their parents and grandparents lives. They carried on in much the same vein. There was no TV, no jet air travel, no pill, still six o’clock closing, no computers, no credit cards, many without telephones and very restricted foreign exchange, if they could even afford an overseas holiday. All the governments of the time offered no manifesto that even hinted that the future of the nation would suffer from their governing, except perhaps Kirk’s third Labour government that introduced its short lived compulsory superannuation. Yet the so called boomers are now vilified as being of not far short of civil criminals. Those that think so should simply cast themselves back and advise exactly what they would have done so differently as an individual of that time, to actually alter the future that is apparently, now so unappetising.
This is an extreme view, not shared by any young people. It's a nice story you like to tell yourself in your head so you are a victim.
Time/technology has moved on since they were born, it's laughable that all the stuff you just write as not being available back then somehow makes it OK. It's total fantastical nonsense argument that has nothing to do with anything. It's like saying that because a young person has a phone, I can murder anyone I want. Make sense? No, it's conflating two things that have no relationship.
The boomers are the biggest voting block and have been for the last few decades. They voted for their own self interest, that doesn't absolve them of responsibility and it doesn't mean we have to pander to them with some promise of universal payments that we can't afford, when the world is facing multiple crises, which they willingly participated in creating. Yes, they may not have been aware of what they were doing, but the bill must be paid at some point.
From the thrust of your post the so called boomers are more the perpetrators of great evil rather than the victims, but even so, whilst apportioning blame, detail then, precisely what you would have done instead of supposed willingly participating in life that was, as it was then, workaday normal which now it seems was actually, knowingly and enthusiastically part of one of history’s greatest conspiracies. Just answer that question, what would you yourself have done?
What I would have done is irrelevant, because I have an entirely different value set to most boomers. And I aren't saying that they are completely responsible, I AM saying that we are facing an unaffordable system in the future, given what was handed the later generations.
And EVERYONE is responsible to take blame for this and do what they can to ensure we have a functioning society. What matters is policy changes right now and in the near future for us to avert catastrophe. And I expect all generations to participate in this discussion and make affordable sacrifices to ensure the future is livable by the most number of people.
See what's interesting now is that boomers actively support policies where we means test the parents of young adults, to see if the young adults can just get parental support please, instead of going on job seeker. And if you want to have a baby? Well best start payments are now means tested, so that if you and your partner earn the minimum wage, sorry you don't qualify as the threshold is set so low that nobody essentially qualifies (much like National's vaunted tax breaks for working families which about 300 people got). Yet any suggestion of just income testing super or raising the retirement age and the boomers pump out all sort of vitriolic nonsense about how they paid taxes all their lives, therefore they deserve everything. That's why those policies can't be enacted, boomers are being selfish and appear to not care about their children's or grandchildrens futures.
I am older than a boomer. I did though give you a clue. There was in my opinion an opportunity but the arrival of Muldoon in 1975 snuffed it out. That was the compulsory superannuation introduced by Norman Kirk’s unlucky and unfortunate government. The fact that Muldoon’s government won by a landslide indicates just how shortsighted the electorate was which includes me. But even so again in1997 the electorate overwhelmingly rejected, a 92% nay, Winston Peters referendum for the same concept.
How much longer can the super issue be kicked down the road?
Like most of our long running issues, as long as the voter demographics are tilted in favour of upholding the status quo.
Not long then.
Couple decades I guess.
50/50 call whether withdrawals exceed deposits before then, and make the political side of it moot.
Oldies all vote. All the time. Thats why things havent changed.
Youth had their chance twice to vote the land tax and redu ed in ome tax, and didn't. This would directly target speculative greed. Instead they are either on their phone obvious, or ploting an exit west.
Or the party campaigning for those things was woeful at capturing that demographic.
Uneducated and unengaged I call it. if the youth understood their influence in aggregate and turned up to vote, we would see change. Demographics demand it
Younger voters should have supported TOP a decade ago. But they didn't.
This isn't the whole story though. Oldies turn up and vote for their own interets, and appear to not care about their children, grandchildren's futures. I can actually see this with most people I know in that generation, self interest trumps care of the future, which they will often deny any responsibility for nor that they have any role in fixing it. In fact, many simply deny the existence of multiple problems the world faces, because it's inconvenient to their lifestyle.
One couple I know own a small hobby farm, have 8 vehicles, reverse mortgaged their house/land, own several rentals, vociferous ACT voters, overseas trips often lasting 6 months or longer, yay for them they "did well" by sitting back and watching their assets appreciate ridiculously... meanwhile their kids and grandkids barely get enough to eat. They are stuck renting because housing is too expensive. I actually had to help them buy groceries once while the oldies were holidaying in Tuscany. An honest conversation with the family and they were saying that really they are just waiting for the parents to die so they get a decent inheritance, but by the looks of it, there won't be anything left, the oldies are spending all the future generations resources on themselves. It's quite sickening.
Wait until the oldies are incapable of independent living and have to buy into a retirement village (or similar) - then find out the reverse mortgages have left them with no money to purchase. Or that their offspring aren't inclined to help move them somewhere palatial.
Good to see A2 expanding, maybe picking up from Fonterra as a relatively local company willing to add value to dairy products in NZ.
Particularly in the Asian market, their A2 point of difference is a big deal as many in East/South East Asia struggle with digestive discomfort with regular milk that contains A1. And that's not mentioning the strong epidemiological evidence linking A1 milk to all kinds of diseases and disorders from autism to diabetes and dementia.
A genuine homegrown success story - the science started here, the company started here. Unfortunately as with many homegrown successes, they are now based in Australia and their main listing is on the ASX, although they still have a NZX listing for now. A product of the lack of vision from Fonterra at the time - they did the early research and ran scared from the conclusions.
That's interesting - any reputable sources you can share for where we can see the evidence on those diseases and disorders you mention? I hadn't heard that before
The best reference I can give is the book 'devil in the milk' by Keith Woodford who posts here sometimes. He's also written plenty on articles on the subject.
The digestive discomfort is quite well studied now, partly by the company itself. The heavier stuff is all epidemiological, so based on trends in diseases vs consumption of A1 and A2 milk in different countries and over different time periods. Not a proven link, but enough to make me weary of giving regular milk to children. There's certainly more there than the anti-vaxers could come up with, for example.
Particularly in the Asian market, their A2 point of difference is a big deal as many in East/South East Asia struggle with digestive discomfort with regular milk that contains A1.
Nestle have launched Milo A2 in Vietnam targeting moms and kids who are sensitive to regular dairy, lactose intolerance, while maintaining the familiar taste and nutritional benefits associated with the Milo brand.
https://www.minimeinsights.com/2025/05/25/nestle-vietnam-unveils-milo-a…
A2 milk still has lactose though...
This is true. There's a bit of fuzzy ground where many people think they are lactose intolerant because they react badly to milk, but in fact they are intolerant to the A1 protein and can drink A2 milk with no trouble at all. Others are genuinely intolerant to lactose, in which case regular A2 makes no difference.
So record bank profits... meanwhile they have/are cutting staff. It's hilarious when you work for a bank, they are like "Hey! If you work really hard and make us lots of money, you will share in those rewards!"... but then when they make record profits, they retrench the very staff that helped them make record profits.
I know of a bunch of people in BNZ now who have gone from being high performers going above and beyond, to only doing what the job requires and clocking out on time, tough luck. That's what you get for being an arsehole employer.
It doesn't seem to affect their performance though does it, maybe they are overpaid and actually not required?
Ever expanding tech capability is going slowly but surely reduce headcount and increase profitability.
Extrapolate that ideology, and ten squillionaires 'consume' all the planetary production.
They're going to have health issues, for starters.
Blobbies, may I suggest you start a business and employ some people yourself, see how easy it is. Good luck to you (no sarcasm).
If I could start a business where I was guaranteed to be profitable by the government and acted in concert with my competitors in cartel like behaviour with zero competition watchdogs... I think I would be very successful, thank you.
Yeah you might have to do it the hard way instead.
Supermarket owner - as proven by lockdowns and preferential treatment by government
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