Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
We have now had new rate reductions from Kiwibank, TSB, ANZ, Cooperative Bank, SBS Bank, Westpac, ASB, BaseCorp, Unity Money, and Heartland. Best to check the new rates in the following link. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
We have had savings rate reductions from ANZ, ASB, Cooperative Bank, Heartland, Squirrel, TSB, Kiwibank, Westpac. Update: Now we have TD rate reductions too. More here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE DECLINE CONTINUES
Residential construction continues to decline in Auckland and still has some way to go before it hits the bottom.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SLIDES IN MAY FROM APRIL
ANZ chief economist says the economy is recovering but firms are still finding it difficult to pass cost increases through to prices; this is an environment 'in which the RBNZ can support growth'.
DAIRY'S GOOD TIMES TO CONTINUE
Dairy giant Fonterra has made a strong opening farmgate milk price forecast for the season that's about to start, while firming up expectations of earnings for the current financial year of about 70 cents per share. The full perspective, including analyst forecasts, is here.
A GROWING STRESSPOINT
Consumer NZ's quarterly national sentiment tracker survey reveals insurance is a growing financial burden for households, as trust in the industry dips and climate pressures loom. They report insurance has jumped to the fourth most significant financial pressure for households, behind housing, food and household debt, marking a notable rise from sixth place in October 2024. This shift reflects a growing sense of strain as premiums continue to climb across house, contents, car and health insurance, they say.
FAST TRACKING A FAST TRACK PROCESS
The Government is moving to make it very much easier to get a consent to operate a quarry or open a mine, planning to shield these industries from RMA obligations. Similar energy is underway for the commercial forestry industry.
NZX50 SLIDES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today. And it is down -2.8% for the past week, down -5.8% since the start of the year, but up +5.5% from this time last year. There are 37 gainers led by Meridian, Heartland, F&P Healthcare, and Oceania while Ryman, EBOS, Skellerup, and Summerset are the main decliners.
HOT DEMAND, STABLE YIELDS
There were 103 bids for the two maturities offered in today's NZ Government bond tender which raised $450 mln from 27 of them. Those bids totaled $1.532 bln making demand very strong. Yields for both maturities were little-changed from when each was offered a week ago.
KIWISAVER IMPORTANCE RISES
As at March, KiwiSaver assets had swelled to $128.6 bln, a +11.5% rise from a year ago (contributions plus earnings). The proportion invested in New Zealand was 41.0%, little-changed from the 40.8% in March 2024. But the NZ-based assets rose +$5.6 bln in the year, investments offshore were up +$7.6 bln. $128.6 bln is now about 30% of GDP, the first time it has cracked that level.
BANK FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS COMPARED
With the release today of the March 2025 Dashboard data by the RBNZ, we have updated our Key Bank Metrics tool, enabling you to compare bank performance across many comparatives.
NO RATING CHANGES
Following ratings reviews of their parents, Moody's has affirmed the A1 ratings (and 'negative outlook') of the three Chinese banks that operate in New Zealand, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and ICBC.
KOREA CUTS
As expected, the Korean central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.50%.
CHINA TIGHTENS ITS TIES
Ten Pacific Island Council foreign ministers are today meeting in China for the first time. All PIC countries that recognise the PRC were invited. Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu did not attend, nor did Australia or New Zealand. The meeting issued a joint statement and the PRC announced an “Initiative on Deepening Cooperation with Pacific Island Countries on Combating Climate Change”, Climate change is understandably the top issue for these nations.
SWAP RATES FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates may be firmer again today in a general move higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.27% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.69% and was up +11 bps to 4.66% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.51%, up +4 bps.
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -0.4% so far today, but the ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.7% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong has risen +0.4% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with a -0.6% retreat on the S&P500.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$1 at just over US$62.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$65.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is slightly lower, down -70c today at NZ$54.30/NZU with slightly more volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$31/oz from this time yesterday at US$3271/oz.
NZD EASES SLIGHTLY AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.2 and -10 bps softer from yesterday.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,428 and down just -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest again at +/-1.0%.
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20 Comments
Surely $450 million raised in Govt tender?
yes. sorry. fixed now.
Regarding the U.S. Trade Court telling Trump his tariffs are illegal, Vampire Squid Goldman calls the decision a nothingburger.
"The administration could quickly replace the 10% tariff with a similar tariff of up to 15% under Sec 122... This would then provide the administration time to launch a series of Sec. 301 cases against larger trading partners."
'Our new system will provide a framework that makes it easier to plan and deliver infrastructure, quarrying and mining projects, as well as protecting the environment.'
No it won't; that's another oxymoron.
It will also fail as a policy. The reason is simple - when you ramp into non-renewable resources at an exponentially-increasing rate, the 'last half' of the resource stock, represents the last 'doubling-time'. But of course, the last half is a permanently-reducing stock of ever-worse (quality or concentration or both) material, and if your trading system is predicated on growth and that growth is based on real stuff (and if it wasn't, there would be no need to extract) then that system is in trouble.
No need for protesters, no need for legal action - the system will kill itself. Not that you'll hear that from the financial press...
Edit - this Government's push for 'growth', will fail. The question for the grown-ups in the room (once we've moved past the tobacco-touts and the sub-pars) is: What kind of society do we construct next?
Because it sure as hell won't resemble this one.
Not that you'll hear that from the financial press...
Or a sporting almanac. Or chicken fanciers digest. Or women's day.
Weird aye.
The Wright Brothers' flights were a fact; a truth.
Ignored by the MSM, they were first reported in a local journal called: Gleanings in Bee Culture.
Truths and facts are truths and facts - exponential growth being described in terms of 'doubling time', is one of them; the inevitable reduction of NNR stocks is another. As it the reduction of sink-capacity.
We're past halfway globally, only sleight-of-hand has kept the system going since, say, 2008, and the debt is unrepayable ex rampant inflation.
Oh but - we're ever so clever. We can invent stuff... We are superior to nature. We we we we.... are in deep shyte.
Oh but - we're ever so clever. We can invent stuff... We are superior to nature. We we we we.... are in deep shyte.
All relative Power. I have high respect for the Amish. But even their horse and buggies represent technology and innovation. And important to remember, the Amish do not reject all technology outright; instead, they use technology selectively and intentionally, guided by their religious beliefs and community values. Their fundamental concern is that technology, if left unchecked, could undermine family cohesion, erode community ties, and accelerate assimilation into mainstream society.
I'm not knocking technology - just pointing out it is causing the problem so is unlikely to pull out irons out of the fire.
There will be 100 years or so, when already-built stuff will be triage-able. Time for skills in that arena to be lauded.
That is where I am now :)
I'm interested in the use of agricultural drones in Vietnam to make rice production more sustainable. Faced with the soaring prices of agricultural inputs, Vietnamese farmers can now employ drones to grow more rice using fewer resources. From direct seeding, pesticide spraying to fertilizer application, these agricultural drones have seen its increasing popularity among rural youth who are keen to earn a decent salary as drone pilot.
https://www.agritechtomorrow.com/story/2022/05/xag-promotes-drones-in-v…
Japanese were way ahead of the curve on this. The Yamaha RMAX has been seeding and spraying rice since the late 1990's. The aviation bureaucrats couldn't cope with new fangled stuff so held it back on wider application beyond Japan for years.
https://www.agriculture.com/news/technology/sprayer-drone-cleared-f-tak…
The Wright Brothers' flights were a fact; a truth.
Ignored by the MSM, they were first reported in a local journal called: Gleanings in Bee Culture.
Do you think this is sound rationale to form the underpinning of establishing truth?
- the MSM doesn't report everything
- much of the MSM "news" is information some vested party wants to tell you
- non mainstream outlets talk to subjects the MSM doesn't
- name a truth released by the MSM, and a non mainstream outlet will try to convince you the exact otherwise
As a boy, you questioned the veracity of the system being promoted
You found this theory
It speaks to some truths, and some things you're pre-disposed to
You're wondering why everyone else doesn't feel the same way
The first Wright brothers flights were pretty sketchy, lasting a few seconds and resulting in wrecked machines. Glider flights were well known at the time and most people, including the newsmen, were sceptical that powered flight had been achieved. It wasn't until they could do repeated sustained flights and figure eights that it became truly newsworthy.
Aussie media looking for new angles for Ponzi-related stories. And this one's a doozy. A Brisvegas real estate tycoon says he is helping landlords profit off the housing crisis using micro apartments - a house is subdivided into five micro apartments with an onsite landlord.
And who is this tycoon? Kevin Doodney is known as a "housing futurist" and a leading expert in innovative, high-yield property strategies, particularly focused on "Smarter Smaller" housing solutions. With over 40 years of experience in real estate, Doodney has personally transacted more than 20,000 property deals, representing a total value exceeding $2 billion.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-29/micro-apartment-block-launches-b…
Fun times. People who recognised ocular transmission of viruses were bad, bad dudes.
The Biden Administration labeled Americans who opposed the COVID-19 vaccination and mask mandates as “Domestic Violent Extremists,” or DVEs, according to newly declassified intelligence records obtained by Public and Catherine Herridge Reports. The designation created an “articulable purpose” for FBI or other government agents to open an “assessment” of individuals, which is often the first step toward a formal investigation"
If you have ever painted with solvent heavy 2 part paints you will be fully aware that you can become off your face in enclosed space without full face protection.... some boat paints will kill you , you need full face and positive pressure masks.
All that 2 weeks to flatten the curve and have to wear a mask was BS.
First question Jessica then Tova
I spent the first third of my working life manufacturing paints/surface coatings (lab tech to works manager), pretty sure I've still got a full face isocyanate mask in the garage somewhere.
Sniffing all those fumes for years probably explains a lot...
Printers tend to love a good high as well
Dairy debt good. Housing ponzi debt bad.
The wonders of a low doller and fuel price masked by a imported lower cost of fuel. I hope no one proves milk solids are bad for you, cos we're stuffed at that point.
It was proved by science that butter is bad for you. Causing innumerable diseases and deaths. You only have to look at a food pyramid to know it's true.
And then....
Unless you live in Scandinavia where dairy products are on top of the pyramid, always have been.
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