A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; business confidence slips, Fonterra extends its $10 payout, KiwiSaver assets swell, insurance stress rises, Govt rolls back RBA impediments, swaps rise, NZD up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
We have now had new rate reductions from Kiwibank, TSB, ANZ, Cooperative Bank, SBS Bank, Westpac, ASB, BaseCorp, Unity Money, and Heartland. Best to check the new rates in the following link. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
We have had savings rate reductions from ANZ, ASB, Cooperative Bank, Heartland, Squirrel, TSB, Kiwibank, Westpac. Update: Now we have TD rate reductions too. More here.  All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE DECLINE CONTINUES
Residential construction continues to decline in Auckland and still has some way to go before it hits the bottom.

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SLIDES IN MAY FROM APRIL
ANZ chief economist says the economy is recovering but firms are still finding it difficult to pass cost increases through to prices; this is an environment 'in which the RBNZ can support growth'.

DAIRY'S GOOD TIMES TO CONTINUE
Dairy giant Fonterra has made a strong opening farmgate milk price forecast for the season that's about to start, while firming up expectations of earnings for the current financial year of about 70 cents per share. The full perspective, including analyst forecasts, is here.

A GROWING STRESSPOINT
Consumer NZ's quarterly national sentiment tracker survey reveals insurance is a growing financial burden for households, as trust in the industry dips and climate pressures loom. They report insurance has jumped to the fourth most significant financial pressure for households, behind housing, food and household debt, marking a notable rise from sixth place in October 2024. This shift reflects a growing sense of strain as premiums continue to climb across house, contents, car and health insurance, they say.

FAST TRACKING A FAST TRACK PROCESS
The Government is moving to make it very much easier to get a consent to operate a quarry or open a mine, planning to shield these industries from RMA obligations. Similar energy is underway for the commercial forestry industry.

NZX50 SLIDES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today. And it is down -2.8% for the past week, down -5.8% since the start of the year, but up +5.5% from this time last year. There are 37 gainers led by Meridian, Heartland, F&P Healthcare, and Oceania while Ryman, EBOS, Skellerup, and Summerset are the main decliners.

HOT DEMAND, STABLE YIELDS
There were 103 bids for the two maturities offered in today's NZ Government bond tender which raised $450 mln from 27 of them. Those bids totaled $1.532 bln making demand very strong. Yields for both maturities were little-changed from when each was offered a week ago.

KIWISAVER IMPORTANCE RISES
As at March, KiwiSaver assets had swelled to $128.6 bln, a +11.5% rise from a year ago (contributions plus earnings). The proportion invested in New Zealand was 41.0%, little-changed from the 40.8% in March 2024. But the NZ-based assets rose +$5.6 bln in the year, investments offshore were up +$7.6 bln. $128.6 bln is now about 30% of GDP, the first time it has cracked that level.

BANK FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS COMPARED
With the release today of the March 2025 Dashboard data by the RBNZ, we have updated our Key Bank Metrics tool, enabling you to compare bank performance across many comparatives.

NO RATING CHANGES
Following ratings reviews of their parents, Moody's has affirmed the A1 ratings (and 'negative outlook') of the three Chinese banks that operate in New Zealand, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and ICBC.

KOREA CUTS
As expected, the Korean central bank cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 2.50%.

CHINA TIGHTENS ITS TIES
Ten Pacific Island Council foreign ministers are today meeting in China for the first time. All PIC countries that recognise the PRC were invited. Marshall Islands, Palau and Tuvalu did not attend, nor did Australia or New Zealand. The meeting issued a joint statement and the PRC announced an “Initiative on Deepening Cooperation with Pacific Island Countries on Combating Climate Change”, Climate change is understandably the top issue for these nations.

SWAP RATES FIRMER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates may be firmer again today in a general move higher. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.27% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.69% and was up +11 bps to 4.66% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.51%, up +4 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is down -0.4% so far today, but the ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.7% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong has risen +0.4% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.6%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with a -0.6% retreat on the S&P500.

OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$1 at just over US$62.50/bbl in the US, and just over US$65.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE DIPS
The carbon price is slightly lower, down -70c today at NZ$54.30/NZU with slightly more volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SLIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$31/oz from this time yesterday at US$3271/oz.

NZD EASES SLIGHTLY AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.2 and -10 bps softer from yesterday.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,428 and down just -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest again at +/-1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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