A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; ASB moves rates down, Smartpay gets offer, retirement village landlords exit aged care, swaps stable, NZD dips again, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Following all its rivals, ASB trimmed some fixed rates today. Details are here. AIA followed. And so did the Police Credit Union. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB also cut term deposit rates to, including the 'unique' 4% six month one. A weekend review of the TD sector is here. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

WHY BIGGER IS BETTER
For readers interested in what makes banks tick, we take a detailed look at net interest margins here.

NZX50 STILL DRAGGING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% today, down -0.3% for the past week. It is down -4.2% since the start of the year although up +7.7% from this time last year. Kathmandu leads the gainers alongside Summerset, Hallensteins, and The Warehouse. Tourism Holdings, Oceania, Vista, and Vulcan Steel are among the biggest decliners.

SELL RECOMMENDATION
Directors of NZX listed Smartpay (NZX:SPY) are recommending accepting a $1.20/share offer for the Eftpos terminal and network business. The buyer is American listed Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR). Details here.

SHIFTING BACK
You may have noticed, listed retirement providers are reducing their exposure to aged care. Most are struggling to meet investor expectations, and this is even after most of those have been scaled back. It is a sector that is hard to make money in. Grant Thornton have set out the difficulties here. Lots of upfront cash is required for an enterprise whose future is uncertain and may only come after decades.

MORE POSITIVE IN JAPAN
In Japan, although new order growth wasn't flash, their manufacturing sector expanded on a stock-build. And that was their first expansion in over a year. Meanwhile their services expansion extended, now for more than 12 months consecutively, and that was driven by new orders. These conclusions come from the early June PMI released by S&P Global/Markit.

AND AUSTRALIA GETS SOME OF THAT TOO
Meanwhile the modest expansion the S&P Global/Markit PMIs report in Australia extends this modesty to six straight months there. They haven't had a run like this since late 2022. While an expansion will be hard to notice on the ground, it is encouraging that both the factory sector and the service sector are moving in the same upward direction.

THE POINTY END OF THE CLIMATE BITE
The US heatwave, which we noted this morning may affect 200 mln people there, is worrying their electricity grip operators. They anticipate a 14 year high for electricity demand in the US north east. So it will be no surprise to know that they have issued warnings about supply interruptions.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today with a suggestion of firmness. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.29% on Thursday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.63% but was down -7 bps at 4.54% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +2 bps from this morning, back to 4.40%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -0.5% so far today as risk aversion extends. The ASX200 is down -0.6 in Monday afternoon trade. Tokyo is also down -0.6% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.1% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened down -0.4%. Wall Street might open +0.6% tomorrow because that is what the S&P500 futures market is currently indicating.

OIL PRICES ON THE MOVE
The oil price is higher in the US, back to just over US$75/bbl in the US and up +US$1 from this morning. It is up +US$1.50 for the international Brent price and now at US$78.50. Pump prices will start showing this later this week, we expect. A year ago these prices were US$81.50 and US$86/bbl respectiney so a net fall since then. But the recent feature is how fast they have risen on geopolitical risks, up +US$16 in three weeks, or +27%.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS AGAIN
The carbon price is up another +$1 at NZ$58.50/NZU but only on the skinniest trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD IN MINOR SLIP
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2/oz from this morning at US$3365/oz.

NZD DIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this morning at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.5 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN RECOVERS
The bitcoin price is now at US$101,431 $11,431 and up +1.7% from this morning after the sharp -3.5% weekend fall. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/-2.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».