A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; BNZ drops 4% TD rate, updated FHB report released, Pāmu bullish, NZX's Petersen leaving, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut its 1 year 4.00% special today, reverting back to 3.85%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. This updated review may be useful for TD savers,

FHB WATCH
First home buyers are now borrowing $575,000 on average to get a home of their own with the estimated average price paid by first home buyers in June at $682,000

NZX50 IN MODEST RECOVERY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is +0.3% firmer today, although down -0.6% from a week ago. That makes it down -1.8% since the start of the year although it is still up +2.4% from this time last year. The gains were led by Tourism Holdings, Kathmandu, Turners, and Oceania. Goodman, Gentrack, Mercury, and The Port of Tauranga all decline

NZX'S PETERSON MOVING ON
NZX has said CEO Mark Peterson has resigned and will depart at the end of April 2026, following the NZX’s annual general meeting.

PAMU'S PIPs WORKING
Landcorp Farming trading as Pāmu advised that it has narrowed its forecast range for Net Operating Profit (NOP) for the financial year ending June 2025, reflecting its preliminary unaudited results. It now expects full-year NOP of between $46 mln and $49 mln . This compares to the previous forecast range of $43 mln to $51 mln released on March 3, 2025. The outlook for FY26 remains positive with Pāmu forecasting a NOP of between $56 mln and $66 mln. In FY24 they reported a NOP of $20 mln.

PRICE SET
The 5 year Green Bond announced by Transpower a few days ago has had its interest rate set at 4.22% (actually 4.219%). These bonds will be listed on the NZDX as TRP110.

TURNING BRIGHTER
In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit factory PMI expanded slightly faster in July, on the back of the sharpest overall rise in new business in over three years. This was despite export orders still contracting. The same report shows price pressures intensified, hinting at higher inflation in Australia in the coming months.

THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS IN TH ECONOMY
And staying in Australia, research by the RBA shows that international students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. When there are large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver. But they do push up rents.

FAILING TO HOLD
Meanwhile in Japan, the same S&P Global/Markit factory PMI unexpectedly contracted in July from June’s 13-month high but minimal expansion. A small rise was expected.

UNEXPECTED UPSWINGS
After the huge run-up to November 2022, the lithium carbonate market then crashed as the bubble burst with too much supply for the over-estimated demand. That price then fell back -90% to a four year low in June 2025. But since then we have seen an unexpected upswing, rising +22% since then. And also, we should note the unexpected upswing in the copper price, now exceeding US$12,810/tonne (NZ$21.20/kg), a +43% rise in 2025 alone, and a new record high. Tariff distortions help arbitragers and traders but make normal commercial users victims.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely marginally firmer today on global trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.20% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up almost +7 bps at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 4.61% and up +3 bps at 4.57% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.39%

EQUITIES MOSTLY UP
The local equity market is up a minor +0.2% in late Thursday trade. Today Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is little-changed after yesterday's rukus. However the ASX200 is down -0.2%. Tokyo is up another full +2.0% in early trade today on the US-Japan 'deal'. Hong Kong is up +0.6% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore has risen +0.6%. Wall Street closed up +0.8% in its Wednesday trade on the S&P500.

OIL ON HOLD
The oil price in the US is essentially unchanged, still at just under US$65.50/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
The carbon price is holding at NZ$56/NZU but still with trades very scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$42/oz to US$3422/oz.

NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from this time yesterday back at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are a little firmer at just on 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are als up +30 bps at 51.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 67.6.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,039 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low, now at just on +/-0.7.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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