Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today other than the Police Credit Union trimming rates. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed most of its TD rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS, EVEN IF MARGINALLY LOWER
June quarter PPI results reinforce the pressures on business - and the fact that inflation away from the consumer basket is still running hot. Prices producers charged in the quarter were +4.2% higher than a year ago. Prices producers paid for their inputs were up +4.5% on the same basis. This is not evidence inflation is contained, but to be fair these are smaller increases than in the March quarter so they are easing from high levels.
A VIRTUOUS MIX
In complete contrast, the price pressure on the rural sector is low. In fact, led by substantial reductions in interest costs and also assisted by big falls in fuel costs, farm expenses are up only +0.6% in June 2025 than a year ago (excluding livestock). For sheep & beef units it is up +3.7%, for dairy farms it is -1.1% lower, and for horticulture it is up just +0.4% from a year ago. Given that meat, dairy and horticulture prices are all high and rising, and these costs are low or falling, farmers haven't seen as good a set of economic conditions in a very long time. And they have captured the policy reins of government too. They have little reason to whine.
GROWING, BUT BY LESS
The resident population of New Zealand was 5,324,700 as at June 2025, and estimate built on the 2023 Census and adjusted by births, deaths and net migration. That is +34,700 or +0.7% more than a year ago. (This June data is about -10,000 less than previously reported because they are using the 2023 Census base now.) We should also note that the pandemic death spike has normalised now (although compared to almost all other countries it was a relatively small anomaly). For reference, Australia's population is 27,660,000, having risen +206,670 in the past year.
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. It is now up +1.5% over the past five days and down -0.9% year-to-date. But it is still sitting +2.2% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down almost -1.0% so far today and keeping a lid on today's overall result. a2 Milk has surged while Mercury, Genesis & Heartland advance; Hallenstein, Kathmandu, Napier Port & Vector have slipped.
RESULTS UPDATES
Our profile pages for Contact Energy (CEN), a2 Milk (ATM), Freightways (FRW) and Mercury (MCY) are all now updated for 2025 annual results.
EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
There is another full dairy auction tomorrow morning, the first since last week's busted Pulse event which was abandoned without result. So it will be two full weeks since we got any meaningful dairy market signals. The derivatives market suggests we could be in for a price pullback with SMP down almost -2% and WMP down more than -5%. If it actually turns out that was, it will garner quite a bit of attention.
HAWKESBY A HAWK, DOVE, OR STEADY?
Of course, the big event tomorrow will be the RBNZ MPS. Everyone expects a -25 bps rate cut to 3.00. Of more importance will be how the central bank sees where the OCR is heading. 'Neutral' and the most expected outcome is that the RBNZ signals the OCR easing one more cut. In that event, swap rates will likely hold. But if they see more than one more cut, swap rates could fall sharply tomorrow. A hold decision will see swap rates rise, probably just as sharply.
A 3½ YEAR HIGH - ANOTHER VIRTUOUS MIX
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged 5.7% in August to its highest since February 2022, after a small rise in July. All components rose: family finances compared to a year ago rose +6.2%, while expectations for the next 12 months climbed +5.4%. Views on the economy improved, with the 12-month outlook up +7.6% and the 5-year outlook rose +5.4%, both above historical norms. The time to buy a major household item index gained +4.2%, while unemployment expectations fell -2.4%, still below the long-run level of 129. Their long spell of consumer pessimism may be ending, though sustaining momentum could require more easing. This survey underscores why the second-term Albanese government is riding ever higher in their polls, and the right-wing opposition parties are in disarray.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today ahead of the RBNZ for the short durations, but up for the longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.14% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 4.63% and up +2 bps at 4.47% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.34%.
EQUITIES LACKLUSTER
The local equity market is now down -0.2% in late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is however down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.1%. Hong Kong is also down -0.1% at its open but Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore has opened up +0.3%. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 virtually unchanged in lackluster trading with more than a hint of risk aversion despite some good earnings reports.
OIL FIRMER
The oil price in the US is +50 USc today, now just over US$63/bbl and the international Brent price is now just under US$66.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have been trades today that shows the price has dipped to $56. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8 from this time yesterday at US$3336/oz.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up a bit less than +20 bps at 67.2.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,790 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/-0.9%.
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30 Comments
aaagh! I forgot to it the publish button. Sorry.
"We should also note that the pandemic death spike has normalised now (although compared to almost all other countries it was a relatively small anomaly)"
This should be clarified as a death spike in those 85+, and a relatively smaller spike in those 75+, and almost no visible spike in those aged under 75.
I'd guess that a large percentage of the lives that were saved by our Covid lockdowns are no longer alive today. But our economy will be feeling the affect for decades.
I don't blame the politicians back then, they were just doing what the voters wanted. Pity the voters got a bit sucked in.
the reality is we where avoiding Maori deaths, but it seems that many Maori would not get vaccinated hence Jacinda would not unlock Auckland....
IMHO the necessity to timeline to support business with payments due to lock down was greatly increased by some mythical Maori rate of vax necessary to unlock, set in central WGTN, which not even local Auckland Maori wanted.
I am not blaming Maori , they where clearly smart enough to not want the vax.
I have not seen any evidence that covid targets ethenicity?
The voters have indeed been sucked in - and they're not the only ones.
Every day we burn our way through 100 million barrels of oil and 200 million equivalent (BOE) of coal and gas. That's the only underwrite; renewables don't cut the mustard. Yet everyone is blind to the temporary nature of that - even when told.
The people CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH.
Yet everyone is blind to the temporary nature of that
Most people are blind to the temporary nature of everything. It's how we get to complain all the time and appreciate little, we take it as a give in everything will still be there in the morning.
Ain’t that the truth, like it or lump it. For instance such as depicted in Coronation Street, the early episodes, Ms Sharples & Co. Rightly or wrongly the characters had more than enough on their own plates dealing with what was going on in their street, their neighbours. Would wager that a very much greater percentage of the folk in every part of the world is similar, not bothering with anything outside of 500 miles from home, and following first those same localised priorities, summed up if you like by Mad’s Alfred E Neumann - “ what me worry?”
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Reventure, a prominent housing analytics firm, has made headlines in 2025 for stating that for the first time it is considerably cheaper to buy a new house than to buy an existing house in the US.
Reventure’s analysis points out this phenomenon is most noticeable in select states such as California, Vermont, and Delaware. In California, for example, the median price for a new home is reported at $591,116 compared to $784,798 for an existing home - a gap of $193,682 in favor of new construction. This gap is echoed with smaller margins in Vermont and Delaware, where new builds can be 8–34% cheaper than resales.
https://fortune.com/2025/08/11/new-construction-price-premium-housing-m…
You are mainly paying for the land not the house, and these days there is much more land under an old house.
shitbox vs land and shitbox vs $2mil macmansion
A virtuous mix
Farmers have little reason to whine
Are you serious? Do you know how much tax we are paying these days?
ah but you only pay tax on profit, an inconvenient truth
Robbo's golden parachute to Otago University VC is mainly shrugged off as 'just the way it is' at the BBQs. The AFR is highlighting the issue across the Tassie about the troughing going on in their tertiary education sector (Julia Bishop is among the decadence). My reckon is that Robbo is unlikely to get any scrutiny.
An analysis of vice chancellors’ salaries to be published on Tuesday by the Financial Review has found the average remuneration was $1,005,000 in 2024. The highest-paid university boss last year was Professor Duncan Maskell who earned $1,583,000.
Maskell retired from the University of Melbourne earlier this year, but in an interview with the Financial Review in November defended the sector’s high executive salaries, adding that as a “working class boy” he wasn’t “going to say no to a nice salary”.
Bell, who has been the subject of numerous issues and missteps since she took over as the head of ANU in January 2024 was the second highest-paid boss, with a remuneration package of $1,461,465, while Sydney University’s Mark Scott took home $1,343,000.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/jason-clare-puts-unis-on-notice-ov…
Everyone else is on the take in Aussie, why not working class liberals?
to stop this would require everyone to act fairly
Everyone else is on the take in Aussie, why not working class liberals?
Sticking with education, Aussie universities are accused of awarding degrees to students with no grasp of ‘basic’ English. Does this warrant paying VCs higher salaries?
Unless the universities have the capability to evaluate students in multiple languages (they don't), this doesn't add up.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/30/australi…
Scrutiny would only draw attention to who's boss at Pharmac, Waikato Uni, KO... That doesn't serve anyone in power.
They can't even claim Robbo's overpaid, having paid Bill English $200k/month just last year when the cupboard was meant to be bare and full of snakes.
Yes. Let's not forget:
Steven Joyce: His advisory firm, Joyce Advisory, raked in nearly $1 million in fees from the University of Waikato providing 'strategic consultancy' for marketing, student recruitment, and leading a brand campaign, including key involvement in the push for the new medical school.
Tim Macindoe: Former National MP for Hamilton West (served 2008–2020), and later a Hamilton City Councillor. In late 2024, he was hired as a part-time contractor (ambassador) to promote the University of Waikato’s proposed third medical school to councils nationally.
so like 5% of the total cost have gone into influencers pockets?
It's unbelievable to me that Russia, a nation with a GDP of about USD 2 trillion can hold ransom the USA, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Ukraine with a combined GDP of USD 40 trillion.
I think the GDP ratio does not reflect the military capability of the various countries or there willingness to lose their own citizens in this fight.
It is what it is, one side wants a land corridor to Crimea since its lost Syria, the other (Nato) does not want to lose its young men.
Ukraine is poor piggy in the middle. Its done well IMHO now is time to give Russia its land corridor, it will not stop without access to the med for its Navy.
Trump has a settlement within sight now, no deal gives everyone what they want, its always a compromise
Russia will establish & secure its west border on the Dnieper but the big question is how far north, the west to east boundary will then be positioned.Quite rightly, Ukraine is concerned that Russia will, rest, regather and resume their advance, next time from a more advantageous position, a springboard as Zelensky accurately described it. Going to take a lot of military muscle to be on hand to prevent that, and likely, for quite a while.
It's unbelievable to me that Russia, a nation with a GDP of about USD 2 trillion can hold ransom the USA, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Ukraine with a combined GDP of USD 40 trillion.
You should perhaps try to understand why it is and challenge your beliefs about the West vs East / Global South. The idea that the West controls global economics and dictates geopolitics is outdated and wrong.
Case in point: Russia’s vast natural resources, especially oil, gas, and critical minerals, provide substantial export revenues. Although its exports to Europe have declined, Russia has successfully pivoted to China, India, and other Global South markets, mitigating the impact of Western restrictions. And unlike the West, Russia maintains a relatively low level of sovereign debt, giving it more fiscal flexibility compared to some Western economies.
Well nonetheless . Yvil point’s would be somewhat more arguable if those particular nations, and others, awarded their defence and military budgets to the same ratio to GDP as Russia does.
Fair point Fox.
There is also the fact that Putin's dictatorship allows him to easily send hundreds of thousands of young men to die for Putin's war. This cannot easily be done in western democracies. Imagine if France or Britain said today, we're sending our young men to the front in Ukraine, there would be a seismic uproar.
There's also the nuclear arsenal. Most of the rest of Europe doesn't have those.
The idea that the West controls global economics and dictates geopolitics is outdated and wrong.
I think most people are actually aware that the global order has and is shifting.
You're actually too far in the other direction; your proclivity to happily entertain much of the pro-Russian/anti-western view makes you seemingly blind to the threats and weaknesses in that BRICSy sphere.
You're actually too far in the other direction; your proclivity to happily entertain much of the pro-Russian/anti-western view
Understanding the geopolitical power that Russia and China and the weaknesses of the West doesn't make one 'pro-Russia / anti-West'.
Many Westerners far more knowledgeable than me have pointed out how the West has played a role in the Ukraine disaster.
Wokesters like to quote Chomsky, but they ignore him on Ukraine. Why? Because they don't like his narrative. Chomsky attributes a significant share of responsibility for the emergence of the conflict to the actions of Western powers, especially concerning NATO expansion and US foreign policy decisions. Does that make Chomsky a fan of Russia? No. Chomsky describes the war as no moral justification, comparable to the worst transgressions of modern history.
Yeah thats a great example of how partisan your approach is. On one side, confused delusional wokesters, on the other, some sort of truth revealing, objective authoritarianism showing us the way.
It's fairly ironic how often you feel the need to point out how ignorant and uninformed everyone nearby you is, while at the same time happily parroting talking points that don't stand up very well to even casual scrutiny. All a public figure has to do is incorporate anti-wokeism into their view and you're all over it like white on rye.
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