
"Personally, I do."
That was the Prime Minister's response when asked if he agreed the Reserve Bank should have been more aggressive with Official Cash Rate (OCR) decisions and cuts.
Last Wednesday, the Reserve Bank announced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) had been cut to 3% from 3.25%. There were differing views among the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) when deciding on the OCR.
This resulted in only the third vote in the history of the MPC - and the most split vote so far, with four voting for the 25 point cut and two voting against and in favour of a 50 point cut.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking on Monday, Luxon shared that he meets with Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby before these types of announcements.
“I can often give my views in that case … But that’s me giving my reckons and my perspective."
Luxon mentioned the split vote to Hosking who said: “But that doesn’t fix your problem, which is the economy has stalled because he’s not doing his part – or they’re not doing their part."
Luxon said he understood the frustration but the Reserve Bank had two more shots before Christmas.
Hosking said that was too late. “It should have been May.”
Asked whether he agreed, Luxon said “personally, I do” and that he had told Hawkesby this at the meeting.
"I can give my views but I respect the independence of the Reserve Bank," Luxon said.
‘Total rethink’
There’s been ongoing calls for fiscal stimulus - especially in places like Auckland with hotel chain Sudima saying they’re desperate for events.
Luxon said he knew Tourism and Hospitality Minister Louise Upston was thinking about the major events fund.
“I think that is something that is genuinely stimulating economic activity … I think we should rethink our whole major events and you need to because it’s a pipeline of activity.
“You’ve actually got to stuff it with things that may not pay off just this month, but actually will pay off in a year or two ahead as well.”
“I’ve asked for a total rethink on major events,” Luxon said.
An example he’s been looking to is Victoria and its events while Jeff Kennett was Premier. “They had a major event every quarter, they had medium events every month, they had micro events every week.”
Foreign buyers and housing
Luxon said the Government was two to three weeks away from making an announcement about foreign buyers and housing.
This comes after ongoing negotiations between National and New Zealand First. National initially proposed that foreign buyers could purchase homes worth more than $2 million, with a 15% transaction tax to fund income tax cuts.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters previously told interest.co.nz the Foreign Buyers Act would remain unchanged, but other reforms to investment visas and rules were likely to be completed before the end of 2025.
“We're talking about investment. We're changing those rules and what goes with them. You have to be patient and I’ll tell you what the details are. But the Foreign Buyers Act is not changing,” he said.
“If you're investing millions of dollars, then we’ll seriously look at if you have the right to back that up with the buying of the house of New Zealand at a certain cost — and that cost is not $2 million.”
House prices
House prices have been dropping around the country and Housing Minister Chris Bishop told RNZ that he thought it was a good thing.
“We’ve got to decouple the idea that the New Zealand economy is driven by house prices,” Bishop said, calling it “artificial wealth”.
But former Prime Minister John Key recently sang a different tune saying the country needed to get the housing market rising to get people spending.
Speaking to RNZ’s Morning Report, Luxon said the housing market was going through a correction after an early 2022 peak.
When asked who he agreed with - Bishop or Key, Luxon said: “Chris is right in the sense of we want to make sure we’ve got productive growth happening in the economy and how do you get better economic productivity into the New Zealand economy which has been a problem over 30 years.
“If you don’t just want to drive an economy through immigration and house price inflation, we’ve really got to make sure we are creating a higher standard of living for people through a more productive economy. We want to be able to make sure that going forward that we have modest, consistent house price increases.”
The Government was focused on housing becoming much more affordable, he said.
“That means you need to have wages growing faster than house prices. We don't want our whole economic growth be driven by speculative house price inflation. We actually want it driven by productive growth.”
21 Comments
Well, he would say that, wouldn't he. So would Hipkins.
Two 50 point cuts before Christmas and a strict DTI ratio for the housing market. Done.
That’s grunty, but agree something has to happen, I’m just doubtful that the ship can turn fast enough without the house price wealth effect sugar hit …we’ve had how many decades relying on ole faithful (🏠📈) so surely it’ll take a decade or so to create this great “productive” economy…and is everyone patient enough?
And we have to consider what that productive economy is going to look like.
That is the key and none of the Politicians have got a plan
Growth, growth, growth is a good tagline but the details are sketchy
I can imagine the offsite.
how do we come up with a new growth engine that pays homeowners as much as there income (tax free) for doing nothing....
ok boys what's your plan?
No one who likes to make money will wait 10 year's, they will move their money to another environment and try to make money over there. They may come back I guess if the environment allows reasonable risk adjusted returns. It's been easy to make tax free capital gains with low risk for a long time. I see no guarantee that money will stick around for taxed high-risk gains.
I am not sure we are going to see a return to sugar hit economics driving the economy..
“That means you need to have wages growing faster than house prices. We don't want our whole economic growth be driven by speculative house price inflation. We actually want it driven by productive growth.”
He can get away with this reckon because generally speaking the media and the public don't understand why wage growth can't grow faster than house price growth. It's impossible. Post-1980s, the Anglosphere in particular has seen asset prices (stocks, real estate) rise faster than wages, exacerbating inequality and wealth concentration. Production and productivity has been outsourced to China.
Rabbiting on about productivity is meaningless when your economy is not built around GDP-qualifying purposes such as prioritizing production over consumption. If your economy is primarily focused on consumption from the wealth effect - like Aotearoa - there is little to no incentive to improve productivity. And even if there were a switch to a focus on being a producer and living within our means, it would take a generation or two to transition.
Agree. But it has to happen sometime. We can't consume our way through life forever, especially when we're consuming more than we're producing.
two more shots before Christmas.
Sounds like another slogan we used to hear!
Christian Hawkesby applying for the Govenor role. Who appoints this position? It definitely wouldn't have an impact to his decisions on the OCR going forward... being that they're independent from Govt and all...Yeah right.
Agree, Hawkesby must know that if he slashes the OCR and saves the economy, the job is his. But he doesn't make the OCR call on his own.
I wonder how they vote.... do they all put it in a hat, or does the most senior vote first, asking the juniors to disagree with them....
It makes a difference, I wonder if it's changed since Orr....
Only those in the room could speak out ...
"Luxon said he knew Tourism and Hospitality Minister Louise Upston was thinking about the major events fund." - this is the kind of thing they blame council's for (stick to the rubbish etc), but when they do it its a good investment?
After the bubble, Japan went big on "events". Both the public and private sectors undertook ambitious projects, constructing high-capacity venues such as PACIFICO Yokohama, Fukuoka International Congress Center, Musashino Forest Sport Plaza, and expanded stadiums, sometimes growing exhibition space by 50% or more.
Every city seems to have major conference centers that are rarely used. Many of these projects assumed that Japan would maintain its peak demand for international conferences, business events, and global summits, but actual utilization rates rarely matched optimistic projections, generating severe underperformance in the sector.
I'm not sure why Aotearoa thinks this is feasible business stream considering we're at the end of world.
Even Vegas itself has turned to shite, it's not getting tourist numbers and costs have sky rocketed, so people are staying at home.
You have to provide value when things are tough, a few high rollers staying at huka falls will not more the dial.
Funny we had less economic problems before we banned freedom camping.
Even Vegas itself has turned to shite, it's not getting tourist numbers and costs have sky rocketed, so people are staying at home.
Yes indeed. The corporatization of Vegas is a disaster. It was far better for the public when the mafia was in control.
Booze, girls and gambling , how hard is it?
OCR cuts are typically needed when an economy is performing poorly, and needs stimulus.
Him saying 'they should do more' is tacitly admitting that things are really bad!
I'm also surprised Labour / the left are giving them such a free ride on claiming they 'fixed inflation', when every comparable nation has had the same shaped CPI graph.....
I was going to say that then I fact checked - have a look at the UK, left wing government, inflation not looking flash.
A 'left wing government' that is (attempting to) cutting spending.
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