Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has moved its fixed rates down to match Westpac and BNZ/ China Construction Bank has cut rates too, including their floating rate. Coop Bank and WBS cut rates too. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Coop Bank and China Construction Bank cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FINALLY GOING THE RIGHT WAY
First home buyers have benefited considerably from falling house prices and interest rates over the last few years, and affordability for this group is now the best it has been for 4 years.
RATE CUT DOESN'T REALLY IMPROVE BUSINESS SENTIMENT
The ANZ business sentiment survey reported confidence lifted 2 points in August to a net 50% expecting better business conditions, while expected own activity fell 2 points to a net 39%. Past own activity fell 5 points to +1, while past employment rose 1 point to -12. There were some interesting, isolated lifts in the data in the late-month sample following the RBNZ cut, but no generalised confidence improvement evident. Inflation indicators fell: the net percent of firms expecting to raise prices in the next three months fell 1 point to 43% and those expecting cost increases fell 2 points to 74%. One-year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 2.6%.
A TURN FOR THE BETTER?
Latest figures suggest the jobs market may have turned for the better. The monthly filled jobs data shows a rise for the second consecutive month - the first time in nearly two years there's been two consecutive gains.
STILL TRENDING LOWER
In 2024, there were 18,033 marriages and civil unions nationally. This was -4% fewer than in 2023 (18,744) and -14% fewer than in the 1990s (an average of 20,950 marriages per year).
TRENDING LOWER TOO
In the short three year history of the RBNZ's cash use survey, the use of 'cash' to pay for everyday things has fallen to 40% of the people surveyed, the lowest level yet.
NZX50 SOFT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was unchanged. But it is now down -2.5% over the past five days and down -1.6% the same year-to-date. However it is now sitting +3.1% higher year-on-year. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% today so far. Hallensteins, Gentrack, a2 Milk and Channel Infrastructure have all risen while EBOS, Investore, Kathmandu and Ryman are the drag, resulting in the NZX50 being flat.
NEW UPDATES
Another group of NZX50 profiles are now updated, reflecting their full year-end results reporting today. That includes Meridian, EBOS, Precinct and AirNZ.
IMPROVING I
SOE Pāmu/Landcorp reported an after-tax profit of $120 mln for the year ended June 2025. But this includes fair value gains on animals and forestry of $96 mln. Net operating profit was $49 mln, and they are indicating a range for the 2025/26 year of between $69 mln and $79 mln. Pāmu has total assets of about $2.3 bln. That includes land it holds for the Crown involved in Treaty negotiations. (ROA = 5.2%)
IMPROVING II
Auckland Council also reported its annual financial results to June 2025 today as well. The delivered a net profit of $1 bln (actually $999,451,000) for the year after paying $58 mln in tax (5.5%). They have total assets of about $79.7 bln. Being a public monopoly, they 'enjoyed' revenue growth of +11%. But their release doesn't really talk to that. They focused on how much they have grown their "investment in the region's future". (ROA = 1.2%).
NEW RATING
Fitch Ratings has assigned Waimakariri District Council a first-time Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'AA' with a Stable Outlook.
RENEWED
The People's Bank of China and the RBNZ have renewed the reciprocal currency arrangement (swap line) to support the settlement of cross border transactions between New Zealand and Chinese businesses. The size of the swap facility is ¥25 bln (NZ$6 bln), and it has a five-year maturity which renewable. The arrangement was first agreed in 2011 and was previously renewed in 2014, 2017 and 2020.
IMPROVING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED
In Australia, new private capital expenditure rose less than expected, by only +0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, falling well short of the expected +0.7% expansion. Year on year it is up +1.7%, hindered by weak investment in plant & equipment.
NVIDIA WEIGHS ON US EQUITY MARKETS
US stock futures slipped after Nvidia declined about -3% in extended after-hours trading despite beating second-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts, as data center sales once again came in below expectations. The chipmaker also revealed that it recorded no sales of its H20 chips to China during the quarter and excluded any potential shipments from its guidance. Nvidia is building a record of lower gains at each reporting event and investors are doubting the AI boom will last. In addition, CrowdStrike fell after it reported too.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a little softer today across the curve, more so at the longer end. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.02% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 4.35%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -1 bp at 4.37% at the end of Wednesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.23%.
EQUITIES FIRMING LOCALLY
The local equity market is now firming in late Thursday trade, up +0.5%. The ASX200 is unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.5%. Hong Kong is down -0.6% but Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore has opened up +0.5%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +0.2% on the S&P500, but looks weaker on after-hours trade.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is little-changed at US$63.50/bbl and the international Brent price is still just on US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE RECOVERS
There have been a few more trades with the price rising back to $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD A LITTLE FIRMER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6 from yesterday at US$3389/oz.
NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.4.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,479 and up +0.3% from yesterday. Volatility has been low at just under +/-1.0%.
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9 Comments
"net profit of $1 bln" - so a rates decrease next year?
If youre renting you dont have a rates bill and rents are dropping in Auckland. This lovely lady has done the numbers
The People's Bank of China and the RBNZ have renewed the reciprocal currency arrangement (swap line) to support the settlement of cross border transactions between New Zealand and Chinese businesses
RBNZ also has a swap line with the Fed (up to USD15 billion equivalent), which can be extended up to USD60 billion in crisis.
Team Albo has eliminated more tariffs bringing the total to around 1000 tariffs removed across two years. This move is designed to reduce outdated barriers to trade, making the economy more efficient and lowering costs for both Australian consumers and businesses. Latest tariffs to be removed include:
Automotive: Tariffs on tyres, with annual imports worth nearly $4 billion, are being abolished.
Electronics & Appliances: Tariffs on televisions (over $1.4 billion in imports) and air conditioners (over $58 million in imports) will be eliminated.
Consumer Goods: Wine glasses (over $42 million in imports) are included in the tariff cuts.
"The People's Bank of China and the RBNZ have renewed the reciprocal currency arrangement (swap line) to support the settlement of cross border transactions between New Zealand and Chinese businesses. The size of the swap facility is ¥25 bln (NZ$6 bln), and it has a five-year maturity which renewable. The arrangement was first agreed in 2011 and was previously renewed in 2014, 2017 and 2020."
It would be very interesting to know exactly what the difference is in charges between the PBOC and the Fed. We can only guess, as it seems that standard practice is not to announce these charges unless the loan is for emergency funding.
The PBoC’s key benchmark rates include the 7-day repurchase [repo] rate, recently reported at 1.4% as of May 2025 and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), at ~3% as of June 2025, or maybe SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate). Assuming they use this range plus a 25bps spread is likely, and so the interest charge for borrowing yuan could be in the range of 1.65%–3.25% per annum.
The Fed's swap lines typically charge SOFR + 25 basis points. With the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% in August 2025, SOFR is likely around 4.5%–5.5%. Adding a 25-basis-point spread, the swap rate would be approximately 4.75%–5.75% per annum. The swap rate should be in the 4.75%–5.75% per annum range.
Hmmm, it seems that d...d...d...de-dollarisation is catching on globally in more ways than I could poke a stick at these days, and even by traditional vassals.
Goldfinger will not be amused - how dare our Kiwi CB borrow short-term at such an attractive rate - why are we not helping the U$ pay for their $1.5 trillion 'offence' budget.
Fascinating times
Col
Hmmm, it seems that d...d...d...de-dollarisation is catching on globally in more ways than I could poke a stick at these days, and even by traditional vassals.
Crossed my mind. But in reality, my feeling is that this is little more than decoration. And the Chinese Govt showing who wears the pants.
PBOC is not independent in the sense applied to central banks in Western economies; it operates under close supervision and control of the Chinese government and the CCP. The PBOC is a cabinet-level department of the State Council, with its governor nominated by the premier and approved by the National People's Congress, while key policy decisions require approval from government authorities.
"PBOC is not independent in the sense applied to central banks in Western economies."
Absolutely, Phoenix - two things, including who now "wears the pants" - the PBOC operates as a public utility, and it is this model that is the primary reason for China's spectacular growth in PGDP.
It's also the reason why they were able to grow their GDP by ~25x, lift 800 million out of poverty into middle-class status, and yet still enjoy minimal inflation.
They also bailed out the West in the self-inflicted 2008 debacle.
China played a significant role in providing liquidity to the global financial system during the 2008 GFC, primarily through its continued and increased purchases of US assets, especially Treasury securities.
China provided approximately $490 billion in financing to the U.S. in 2008, with around $330 billion of that directed into U.S. Treasuries. This helped to stabilise U.S. government borrowing costs and supported the funding of bailouts and stimulus measures that prevented a deeper implosion of the global financial industry, which, in itself, was caused by US institutions.
Additionally, starting in late 2008, China began establishing bilateral currency swap lines with several countries, including NZ, to support regional liquidity and trade. This totalled around $210 billion in agreements by the early post-crisis period. However, these were more focused on RMB internationalisation and regional stability rather than direct global USD liquidity provision like the Federal Reserve's swaps.
China has warned the profligate US, which has openly revealed its intention of not only conducting this financial/trade war, but escalating into a hot war too - they will not be conducting a Wall Street rescue again, and there is no other country capable of doing so either, such is the monumental scale of their debt death trap.
Cheers
Col
You express that well.
China played a significant role in providing liquidity to the global financial system during the 2008 GFC, primarily through its continued and increased purchases of US assets, especially Treasury securities.
Which most people tend to be unaware of.
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