Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And remember, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed some key term deposit rates today. We review where these levels now stand, and what could lie ahead. GoLend reduced their key rate to 7.15%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
AUCKLAND DWELLING COMPLETIONS BOTTOM OUT
New dwelling completions in Auckland are still declining but the bottom of the slump in the Queen City could be within sight. The 1208 new homes completed in Auckland in June was down -8.6% year-on-year.
SMALL RISE IN CONSUMER SPENDING
Consumer spending again nudged above year ago levels in August, but lower interest rates and an increasing tourism rebound may finally see that trend lift higher in the coming spring and summer months, says Worldline NZ. Their August data released today shows consumer spending through all Core Retail merchants reached $3.8 bln, which is up +2.0% on year ago levels. (their data adjusts for merchants coming and going from their network.)
DAIRY PRICES DROP SHARPLY
At the overnight dairy auction, prices slumped more than -4.3% in US dollar terms. The situation was 'saved' somewhat by the sharpish recent fall in the NZD, so in local currency terms it was 'only' down -3.5%. Both the milk powders retreated sharply, with SMP down -5.8% and WMP down -5.3%. Most other milk fat commodities fell too with the notable exception of cheddar cheese which was up +3.6%.
LOW DEMAND - BUT HIGHER PRICES
Favourable logistics issues have seen exported logs rise in price unexpectedly, offsetting 'very subdued' domestic market demand from the general 'malaise' in the local economy. The August log market report is here.
FALLING NZD JUICES COMMODITY PRICE RISES
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +0.7% in August from July. All components of the Index rose, except aluminium. The Index had been drifting lower since May due to falling dairy prices, but this trend reversed in August. Over the past year the index has risen +9.3%, supported by higher dairy and meat prices. The NZD Commodity Price Index rose +2.1% month-on-month, with the NZD weakening over the month. For the year the NZD index rose +14.5%.
NZX50 TURNS LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.4% in a negative Wednesday session. But it is up +1.7% over the past working five days. It also up +0.2% year-to-date. And it is now up +4.3% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged again today so far. SkyTV, Kathmandu, Fletcher and Goodman Property Trust rise while A2 Milk, Ebos,Auckland Airport & Summerset lead the falls.
EXPANDING FASTER
Australian economic activity grew +0.6% in Q2-2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised +0.3% in Q1 and better than analyst expectations of +0.5%. Year on year Australian GDP was up +1.8%, above forecasts of +1.6% and the fastest pace since Q3 2023.
GROWING MOMENTUM
In China, the RatingDog (ex-Caixin) services PMI for August expanded faster than July and to a good level, better than expected and the fastest expansion in their services sector since May 2024. New orders grew at the strongest pace since May 2024, supported by a stronger rise in new export business, which increased at the fastest rate in six months. Like yesterday's RatingDog factory PMI, this survey as also better than the official services PMI.
"WE SHOULD BE FREE, BUT HE SHOULDN'T"
In a short comment is support of an article that ran on Newsroom, Mike Joy has incurred the wrath of Fed Farmers who have called for him to be sanctioned. Fed Farmers seems to like free speech so long as it isn't directed at them. The Free Speech Union is a fierce defender of "any speech" especially right-leaning speech. It will be interesting - and telling - whether the FSU jumps to Joy's defence in this case. Fed Farmers' double standards are just revealing their insecurity about the effect their members may be having on the environment.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today at the short end but notable higher for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate unchanged at 3.00% on Tuesday. The last time this rate was at 3% was in July 2022. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.42%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.77%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up another +6 bps at 4.50%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +5 bps at 4.42% at the end of Tuesday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.28%.
EQUITIES TURN NEGATIVE LED BY WALL STREET
The local equity market is softer in Wednesday trade, down -0.4% in a reversal of recent trends. The ASX200 however is down -1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.3%. Hong Kong unchanged with Shanghai down -0.4%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street is back from holiday and fell -0.7% earlier in their Tuesday trade.
OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is now just under US$65.50/bbl and up +50 USc and the international Brent price is over US$69/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There are many more trades today but the price is back up +$1 at $57. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025 and heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42 from yesterday at US$3536/oz and near a new record high again
NZD SLIPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -25 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at just over 66.1 and down another -20 bps.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$111,406 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
18 Comments
Aldi going for broke in the U.S. FYI, it's now the third-largest grocery chain by store count in the U.S. - 2,500+ locations
Aldi plans to add more than 200 stores on a net basis in the U.S. in 2025, making it America’s fastest-growing retailer this year after the two big dollar-store chains, according to data firm Coresight Research. Company executives say they are responding to a customer base of inflation-weary shoppers eager for lower grocery bills, but also for organic produce and select-cut meats.
“This is really Aldi’s time to shine,” said Neil Saunders of research firm GlobalData. “You can shop on a real budget at Aldi and get quite a lot for your money.”
Aldi is smaller than a traditional American grocery store and relies heavily on its own products to deliver low prices; about 90% of the items it sells are private label.
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/aldi-nyc-times-square-7f1c0872
Why bother coming here when they could build plenty more stores in the US
Shopped in Aussie, limited choice but cheap
Shopped in Aussie, limited choice but cheap
Choice overload and the logistics raises prices. Shoppers carry the cost for much of what sits on shelves.
Smaller footprint, limited selection, simpler displays, and private labels enable lower price points.
Ditto. You can cover a large chunk of your shop.
Went to Aldi in Ohio last month. Cheese, vegetables and berries were relatively inexpensive. For a New Zealand shopper it was great to be spared the shock usually experienced at NZ supermarkets these days.
Even see the Borat skit in the US supermarket at the cheese section talking with the store manager?
"What's this"? "That's cheese" "And what's this?" "That's cheese" "And this?" "That's cheese"..............
Virtue signaling about the social impacts of the Ponzi is not really done here in any meaningful way by our leaders. However, it's been happening in Aussie. And this politician has put her foot in it.
Declarations to the parliamentary Register of Interests (all laid out helpfully in Crikey’s updated Landlords List) confirmed this week that Witty — the Labor Left MP for Melbourne who defeated Greens leader Adam Bandt in May’s surprise election upset — is the owner of not one, not two, but three rental properties. She has places in Point Cook, Brighton East and Richmond, on top of her unmortgaged home in Richmond. That’s four all up, in a market in which it is exceedingly difficult to acquire one. Aspirational, one might say.
Witty’s landlord status was always going to attract headlines, especially given the fact she toppled Bandt (“Green-slayer”, as the Oz recently dubbed her). But this, combined with her maiden speech — lamenting the fact so many are “locked out” of the market — has many galled, questioning just how socialist the “Socialist Left” can be. Was there really nowhere else for the former charity exec to park her money? Does she really need two rental properties, let alone three? Even the Herald Sun and 3AW got on board, though they admittedly take greater issue with Witty’s “hypocrisy” than with the portfolio itself.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/09/02/labor-mp-sarah-witty-four-houses/
Gee that's really interesting....! Btw Donald Trump had about 1000 hotel rooms he owns
I find it interesting there's scant mention of the Beijing parade across domestic news today, especially the Herald, yet it's the number one headline in every other country's news. It almost feels like everyone's been told to tone down coverage, which I can understand. But still, weird. Chilling even.
Was on tv 1 news at 6
John Key and Helen Clark attended, which was covered by most outlets inc Herald, as it's NZ-relevant. Another WWII memorial parade isn't big news though is it?
Chilling is a stretch..
God, they did too. What incredibly poor judgement, Putin and Kim Jong Un????
Key & Clark tone deaf...no surprises there
Smile & wave
Someone's invited two has-beens, they're feeling the warm fuzzies
Benign strategic environment, my arse
How's about that jug-eared ex-Victoria Premier attending. I mean, I know Victoria is left; but that left???
That's a $h1+ look in my books. He's very close to Albanese and his besties are the axis of evil??? What even is Australia these days?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/chief-justice-helen-winkelmann-justice-sy…
Btw how long did the billionaire nappy case run. And now the billionaire's sister will be in Court over their dumbass chopper pad. The nappy case in particular was the most frivolous thing I've ever heard with grown tough guys having a cry in court.
The judicial workload could be reduced if their activist members stopped trying to undermine the expressed intent of Parliaments legislation to further their own opinions. They could also stop habitually treating crims as victims and vice versa.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.