Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
STILL UNABLE TO GET UP ON THE FOILS
Activity slumped in the services sector again last month, echoing a drop in the manufacturing sector and suggesting the anticipated pick-up in economic activity is struggling to get started.
SLAPPED WITH A WET NOODLE, AGAIN
ANZ Group has admitted to engaging in unconscionable conduct in services it provided to the Australian Government, incorrectly reporting its bond trading data to the Australian Government by overstating the volumes by tens of billions of dollars and to widespread misconduct across products and services impacting nearly 65,000 customers. There are four separate offenses spanning 2013 to 2024. (And that's in addition the seven priors.) It has agreed to a AU$240 mln fine (NZ$265 mln) to settle the latest cases. (ANZ Group reported tax paid profit of AU$6.6 bln so the fine is less than 3.7% of that, two weeks of profit). More here.
UP FROM 'LOFTY HEIGHTS'
Farmer confidence in the broader agri economy now at its second highest level in a decade, on higher prices and rising demand. Dairy farmers have the strongest investment intent and horticulturalists the weakest, according to the Q3-2025 Rabobank survey.
GROCERY INFLATION UPDATE
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets picked up slightly in August, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average +2.3% increase in what suppliers charged in August 2025, compared to a year earlier.
NZX50 WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.5% after starting its Monday session on the back foot. It is down -1.1% over the past five working days. But it is up +0.7% year-to-date. And it is now up +3.6% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.1% today so far. AirNZ, Sky TV, Stride Property, and Oceania all gain, but Meridian, Mercury, Infratil, and F&P Healthcare all retreat.
WARNING
The FMA says former or existing clients of David McEwen and associated entities or subscribers to the publication ‘McEwen Investment Report’ are advised to check their credit and debit card statements for possible unauthorised payments. "If a charge has been made to cards without your authority, we advise you contact your credit card company or bank immediately and ask about the possibility of reversing the charge, how to withdraw any expired authorities, and whether it is necessary to cancel any existing cards."
PRIORITISE, PLAN, ADAPT
In Australia, their National Climate Risk Assessment was released today. It has detailed the changing, more intense and extreme climate hazards, and in some cases in areas where people and places haven’t experienced these hazards before. It sets out the risks to people, places, and the Aussie way of life. They are trying to prioritise and plan how they will adapt and respond. The report says that while the world is already 1.2ºC hotter than during pre-industrial times, because of its sheer land size Australia is warming faster and is 1.5ºC hotter. Australia is experiencing more intense heatwaves on land and sea, rising seas and more frequent coastal flooding. Although the usual suspects remain in denial, a surprising number are now accepting it has become an urgent issue. Insurance premiums, even availability will be how it will affect most people in Australia. WDKHLWA.
GROWING SLOWER I
In an unexpected result, China's retail sales were expected to have grown faster in August by +3.8%, up from +3.7% in July. Some anticipated a +5% rise. But in the end the rise was only +3.4%, and that was an eight month low.
GROWING SLOWER II
China's August industrial production was up +5.2%, a one year low, good but less than the +5.7% in July and also less than the expected +5.8%. All this was done with only a +1.6% rise in electricity production, and -3.2% fall in the production of fossil fuels, according to these official stats.
A FEW POSITIVE SIGNS, BUT MOSTLY NOT
China's house prices were generally stable in August. There were a few more signs of marginally higher prices in a few more cities for new developments. But the sales prices of pre-owned housing continues its slow droop and it is becoming ever more embedded.
STALLED
But probably worse from China was that fixed asset investment hardly rose, up just +0.5% for the eight months from the same period a year ago. It was expected to have risen +1.4% on this ytd basis. August 2025 alone actually came in lower than August 2024, a worrying sign.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD AT SHORT END
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be little-changed today at the one year term but higher for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.98% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from this morning at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is also up +5 bps at 1.87%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from today's open at 4.34%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was down -2 bps at 4.28% at the end of Friday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from this morning, now at 4.08%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER, BUT NOT LOCALLY
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.9%. Hong Kong up +0.5% with Shanghai unchanged again. Singapore is also little-changed at its open. Wall Street's futures markets are signaling that the S&P500 will open tomorrow up almost +1.0%, bullish bets on the expected coming Fed rate cut.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc from this morning at just on US$63/bbl with the international Brent price just under US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STUCK
There are no trades we could find today and the last price was $58. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 from this morning, now at US$3639/oz.
NZD OIN HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning, now at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just over 66.7 and little-changed from this morning.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,468 and down a minor -0.2% from this morning. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 0.6%.
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5 Comments
This might be a little edgy. Sam Stubbs' comments on social media re political events in the U.S. received something of a backlash, which Sam dealt with it as best he could. Little point debating whether or not his opinion is right or wrong.
Anyway, it is my thinking that a leader of any leading fund management brand in the U.S. would not have waded in with their opinions on social media. The potential fallout could be catastrophic. But probably not in Aotearoa. My reckon is that even if people took offence, they would be too apathetic to take their business elsewhere. I also wondered about how people would react if Sam were taking the alternative opinion. Would people take their invested funds elsewhere? Probably not. Too much effort involved.
Lesson here. Watch what people do, not what they say. Remember when a campaign was launched to buy Canadian brands in protest to tariffs. It was my reckon that Canadians would still go for the best value and . or price, regardless of the source of origin of the product or service in the medium to long term. Seems I was right.
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/buy-canadian-backlash-hit-wall
“Watch what people do, not what say.” Reminds me a long time ago when I first went to attend the regular meetings in Wellington convening the players from all the outfits in the relative industry, my wise old CEO of the time advised - you will find what is unsaid is worth twice as much as what is said and what is put in writing, is worth the sum of both of them. Later on he followed that up with the even more valuable - if you don’t know what you are talking about, don’t put it in writing.
Yes. High context environments and situations. Often attributed to dealing with Asia, but applicable to all cultures. Your example shows strong pragmatism.
Also works well for bullying situations. People will say a lot of stuff until you ask them to put it into an email.
Also, recently the copilot function that records most meetings has made a lot of them much more civil.
LOL. Also passive aggressive tactics.
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