Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB trimmed a number of TD rates today, especially for longer terms. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
KEY INFLATION COMPONENT UP +5%
StatsNZ says its Selected Price Indexes show a +5.0% annual food price increase in year to August due to higher grocery prices, which were up +4.7%. This data is an interesting contrast to the Infometrics-Foodstuffs monitoring that showed just a +2.3% increase to August. But some economists found today's detail a touch weaker than expected and now expect overall Q2-2025 CPI inflation to 'peak below 3%' and now less of a chance it will breach the RBNZ's 1-3% target band.
CHILLY & SUBDUED
REINZ's August sales numbers and median prices both dropped month-on-month. The housing slump deepened in August with sales numbers down -11% compared to July
NERVOUS WAIT
Buckle in for a tough dairy auction tonight. Derivatives trading suggest that the WMP price could drop sharply, maybe more than -5% and taking it back to levels we last had in October 2024. The SMP price looks like it will be weak too, possibly lower by -3% and to levels we last had in August 2024. If it turns out like this, it will be due to rising international milk production. And it is likely to trigger downgrades in analyst expectations for the 2025/26 dairy season.
COMPETITION 'REFORM'
The Commerce Act is under review for the first time in 20 years. The Commerce Commission is to get new flexibility to act against market dominance which has been gamed under the settings of the existing law. Contemplated are changes to stop unfair tactics like creeping acquisitions and predatory pricing 'so genuine competitors can thrive', clearer merger rules, restructuring the Commerce Commission for 'faster, more transparent decisions', streamlined approval for beneficial collaboration making it easier for businesses to work together where it helps the public, and allowing businesses to voluntarily undertake to limit market power as part of merger applications.
NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was little-changed its Tuesday session. But it is down -0.4% over the past five working days. However it is up +1.1% year-to-date. And it is now up almost +4.0% from a year ago. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% today so far. Channel Infrastructure, Stride Property, Kathmandu, and Serko lead the gainers, Briscoes, Oceania, Mercury, and Hallensteins are the main decliners
MORE UPBEAT THAN YOU MAY HAVE ASSUMED
When business were asked about what most affected business confidence, the largest number cited uncertainty stemming from reversals of government policies following elections. This differs from the top concerns in 2024, which were interest rates and profitability challenges. Overall, businesses were reasonably upbeat, and enough to be raising their capex investment in the coming year.
RESPONDING TO STIMULUS
In China, there are some signs that Beijing's stimulus could be working. Steel output not only stopped falling, it actually picked up in the first two weeks of September, defying downbeat expectations. And iron ore prices rose too recently.
SWAP RATES SOFT
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be a touch lower today at the one year term more lower for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 2.96% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps from today's open at 4.31%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +4 bps at 4.32% at the end of Monday trade. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at this time, now at 4.04%.
EQUITIES IN MODEST MOVEMENTS
The local equity market is up a minor +0.1% in Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.3%. Hong Kong however is down -0.3% with Shanghai down -0.5%. Singapore is little-changed at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session up +0.5% on the S&P500 to an ATH..
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc from yesterday at this time at just on US$63.50/bbl but the international Brent price is little-changed at just pn US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STUCK
There have been a few small trades today at $57.50. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$37 from yesterday, now at US$3677/oz. That an ATH. Silver is firm too.
NZD IN MINOR SLIP
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday, still at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now down -10 bps to just over 66.6.
BITCOIN STILL ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$115,081 and down a minor -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility has been again low just under +/- 1%.
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19 Comments
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/max-keys-epic-villa-sells-to-expats-afte…
Keys wife and son seem happy to make pretty houses for lots of money instead of building businesses that employ nzers and generate exports
How strange
Looks like Max has realized that there's more moolah in renos and do-uppers and flipping to the well heeled. Lord Key can use the Rolodex to find a few buyers from mainland China. The Parnell sale when the Chinese buyer paid massively over what appeared to be mkt value looked dodgy as.
The Bank of England is proposing a cap on individual stablecoin holdings, limiting ownership to just £10,000–£20,000 per person in the name of “systemic risk.” The reason cited is to prevent large deposit withdrawals from the banking system, which could threaten financial stability if stablecoins become significantly adopted.
Major UK and global crypto advocacy groups, including the UK Cryptoasset Business Council, have strongly criticized the move, calling it “impractical,” “bad for savers,” and likely to place the UK behind other jurisdictions such as the US and EU, which have not imposed such restrictions.
The UK banking system is possibly more fragile than what people assume.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-plan-cap-stablecoin-0643221…
Sounds like a typical fiat response (the 'by decree or resolution' version of the Latin) a.k.a let it be done!
Also, completely unenforceable unless they want to start searching everyone's undies drawers for cold storage devices
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
It would be wise to consider that the state is all powerful ....unless it dissolves.
Fiat has to be a real currency that can be used for exchange. Bitcoin doesn’t have to worry about rampant value fluctuations / selloffs / buyins as it’s just a speculative asset.
"Bitcoin doesn’t have to worry about rampant value fluctuations / selloffs / buyins as it’s just a speculative asset."
Thats sarcasm/irony isnt it?
Interesting dynamic going on with the "cost of living crisis" being resolved by importing everything.
Carter Holt Harvey has closed a plywood factory in Tokoroa as it is just cheaper to buy it from overseas. It feels like our supermarkets are doing the same thing, so many things are made "using local and overseas ingredients" or "in China". And we want some big supermarket company to come over and make food prices a bit cheaper with their mass produced foreign crap.
I still maintain we would be better off paying a slight premium for NZ made goods from NZ companies, than constantly complaining that its a few cents cheaper overseas.
💯
I still maintain we would be better off paying a slight premium for NZ made goods from NZ companies, than constantly complaining that its a few cents cheaper overseas
It's all about trade offs. $25 for an egg slice as opposed to $5, which is functionally no different. And in many cases, the NZ made product may not be possible without input from China or Vietnam.
My favorite ever egg slice was purchased at Daiso Japan. Less than NZD5 from memory.
Auckland
Sylvia Park Store
Now Open
The store is located on ground floor in Sylvia Park shopping centre. one in Q Street and one in WGTN
We are the perfect market for them.
The store is located on ground floor in Sylvia Park shopping centre. one in Q Street and one in WGTN
Guarantee it will be nothing like Japan - Daiso currently offers an estimated 76,000 products, with approximately 90% developed in-house and thousands of new items added each month.
I’m sure there are cases where we are genuinely getting ripped.
But I’ve lived overseas, the 39p broccoli in the UK tastes like water, and the cheap bread in the US tastes like sugar. There’s often a reason things are cheaper overseas other than we are being ripped off.
I dont know directly about supermarkets ( though there are many indications so) but can confidently say we are being ripped off on margins on retail building products/hardware... the margins are huge.
Consider then where all the tentacles of Fletcher, lead, grip, squeeze and feed back into the hungry mouth. A classic case of trying to cure a rotten guts by eating more.
You think another company could come in and undercut the likes of Bunnings significantly? I doubt it; maybe if we had another 400 million people.
Have you noticed that the big hardware brands aren't so price friendly now
Agreed. But that is like asking Property and bitcoin Investors to pay tax on gains. Never happen.
Shame don't get to hear lonewolfz crypto exploits anymore. I recall he had been paying taxes...
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