Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has cut all its fixed rates. The details are here. Update: And now Westpac has cut everything too. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ cut its TD rates by just as much as its mortgage rate cuts. China Construction Bank also cut rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
VOLUMES RECOVERING BUT PRICES MIXED
Barfoot & Thompson reports it had best its September sales volumes since 2020. Auckland's dominant realtor had 'healthy' in September, but its stock levels are still high and market price signals are quite mixed.
NEAR THE TROUGH?
Cotality says, for the first time in six month, the median dwelling value has increased. That median dwelling value squeaked out a +0.1% increase in September. But the median values are still down in Auckland and Wellington.
LOG PRICES STABLE, PROSPECTS IMPROVE
Forest owners eye a boost from NZ Government spending plans. China log demand making small gains, India demand for NZ logs helped by rising euro but seasonally soft. It's all in the September log market report.
NZX50 FIRMER AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.2% net in its Wednesday session so far, after a slowish start. It is up +2.4% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +8.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% today so far. Skellerup, Briscoes, Ryman, and Gentrack lead gains; Kathmandu, EBOS, Genesis, and Sky TV all fall.
COMPLIANCE FAILURE
The DIA says it has entered into an enforceable undertaking with Pagemark Limited and its director David Halstead, following failures by the company to meet its obligations under the AML/CFT Act 2009. Between January 2017 and March 2025, Pagemark Limited helped form 14 legal entities and provided registered office or business address services to 19 legal entities without conducting appropriate risk assessments or maintaining an adequate Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism compliance program. Pagemark also failed to submit annual reports and prescribed transaction reports as required by the Act.
STRONG BIDDING FOR LOWER YIELDS
Almost $1.7 bln was bid for the $450 mln available in today's NZGB tender. Thirty-eight of the 104 bids were successful, with yields moving down from the prior equivalent events.
SPENDING GROWTH EASES
In Australia, household spending inched higher by just +0.1% in August to be +5.0% than year-ago levels. It was held back by lower spending on booze and recreation, lifted by higher spending on transport.
EASING
Aussie exports were weak in August, mainly because of lower gold exports. This means August goods exports were -3.5% lower than year ago levels. Imports were +4.5% higher on the same basis.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be softer yet again today for all durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Wednesday at 2.78%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps from yesterday at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 4.23%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Wednesday's rate up +3 bps to 4.22. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps on risk aversion at 4.10%.
EQUITIES ALL FIRMER
The local equity market is now up +0.2% in Thursday trade. However, the ASX200 is up a strong +1.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.6%. Hong Kong is up +1.6% at its open but Shanghai is still on its holiday break. Singapore is up +1.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday session with the S&P500 up +0.3%, ignoring the shutdown drama..
OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc to just on US$62/bbl and the international Brent price is now down at just over US$65.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Prices remain range-bound on very light volumes, holding at $57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3864/oz, down -US$3 from this time yesterday.
NZD RECOVERS
The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 88.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now also up +40 bps at 65.5.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$118,779 and up +3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 2.3%.
Daily exchange rates
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
35 Comments
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/what-are-the-lessons-from-auckland-univer…
The real reason, Auckland students going to Canterbury Uni in droves!!!!
So much so my partner was invited to a PFI Focus group to ask why would someone in AKL chose a south island uni.... What else does Auckland Uni believe?
https://youtu.be/GWLF1RD0UfU Māori 'Ways of Knowing': How New Zealand CANCELLED Science – Richard Dawkins
Real Headline
Go Woke go Broke causes Auckland Uni to back track....
An absolutely unnecessary and futile exercise that both alienated and disfavoured the intended cause, whatever it was exactly, in the first place. Quite obviously those in charge, the instigators were inept and unsuited for the responsibility of representing education in proper form. Worst of all the credibility of the University, its great academic history and accomplishments, has been badly tarnished. Very silly carryon by very silly people I would suggest.
Poor first year Law students this year had to do 2 courses total $2,800 down the drain... maybe a class action? Literally is coming
Auckland Law School over many, many years produced many of New Zealand’s best judiciary and barristers. That high regard was both well earned and deserved. Inexplicable that lay, for want of a better word, individuals should be allowed and authorised to embark on a program that undermined and assaulted the value and credibility of all that had been achieved.
Not just Auckland Uni staff; others too - when one's career-path requires it, most people come up short of moral courage.
That said, real science has contributed to the human predicament and Maori were just less impactive because they didn't have the fossil-energy lever. In the future, we need to be living within boundaries - and I'd prefer they were scientifically identified/monitored
As Dorkin's says.... If Maori ways are science they should be taught all over the world, not just in NZ....
Well as David Lange commented to claim that the feat of successfully navigating the Pacific was qualification as one of the world’s leading civilisations of the time, rather paled when one regards Salisbury Cathedral.
Which ocean did it aspire to cross?
Sorry about the l apse.
A rather cloistered rejoinder, right there. The theory, in part set in a historical (or hysterical, take your pick,) English sense, arose from an episode in which The Goons centuries later successfully sailed Dartmoor prison to France.What’s more, in so doing they first had as well, the precaution of an entry permit from one of the French governments of around about then. But anyway perhaps as far as Akl Uni simply, the pulpits were nave?
The real reason, Auckland students going to Canterbury Uni in droves!!!!
Recently UC Business School has won the 2025 PIEoneer Award, a prestigious international honour hosted in London by The PIE (Professionals in International Education), recognising its innovation and excellence in international education. https://insidegovernment.co.nz/international-win-for-uc-business-school.
Its a great Uni, went and loved it, and the campus and off campus lifestyle is miles ahead of AKL
Was involved in a mentoring role for a project at the business school. What the students came up with was superb. Way above my expectations.
Engineering school (chemical) always been solid from what I know.
Back on the day, before they let polytech's issue engineering degrees, there was only Auckland and Canterbury, both highly respected across most departments.
This kind of drivel is beneath you. Or, it should be. Young people are flocking to Canterbury because Christchurch is cool. Auckland is a depressed boomer hellhole.
My daughter having to drop $2,800 on drivel is the issue...... its drivel until woke BS gets personal!
if 75% of the Uni senate now feel it should be optional do they deserve to be on that senate?
sorry this is the reason Labour lost by the biggest margin in History, Woke BS drivel vs Policy around energy security.... the Leftie acedemics loved this virue signalling,
some of them ended up with Hon degrees in wokeness and now fly business class to green events.
Until there students start to goto Unis who do not make them study (optional) drivel.
And that's my rant over on this topic, lone live the sanity that has returned.
Wow auto correct couldn’t keep up with that outburst. Doesn’t actually matter though. The gist and direction hammers many nails home regardless.
its a lot of money for an 18 year old to have to pay to placate value signaling, not to mention what they had to listen to, many walked out of the lectures.
Wokeness. The cure all for those looking for reasons to froth at the mouth. Dude, the top 1% are milking us and the planet dry while we get sucked into dumb culture wars.
I agree, little wins...
Totally agree Jfoe. I had a few kids go to Uni. Not one of them seriously considered Auckland. And when it came to work a couple tried but couldn't find any reason to stay more than a year. Sounds to me that $2800 would be money well spent for some to broaden their perspective just a bit.
Anyone who fails to establish a relationship with a potential client through willful cultural incompetence will reap their rewards.
If we have people who educate trade delegates to foreign countries, and many Kiwi lawyers follow a well trodden Rite of Passage to spend a few years in England, then maybe, just maybe, some astute students can figure out how to reap sufficient value from that trifling investment. And maybe they can also foster a long-game perspective which they can then use to serve their clients well in the domestic market.
Or we can whine about woke. Whatever that is. Yeah nah.
On an annualized basis, China's imports of basic metals (blue) are up $60 bn versus pre-COVID 2019. This is primarily copper, nickel and aluminum. China's imports of precious stones and precious metals are also up $60 bn annualized (black). A huge inventory build is underway...
war time stockpile
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 123% YTD now. There are a few Chinese miners in the portfolio. Remember China is the world's largest gold producer.
GDXJ (junior miners) up 129% YTD and 29% in past month.
Specu-punters should have been backing up the truck. Seems like forever that Goldies have been the brunt of jokes at the water coolers and BBQs.
Love GDX !!! Gold prices up, oil prices down = happy miners :-)))
You sound like a crypto influencer Dr Y. Most of whom seem to be be invested in the 'talk of today" to drive their engagement farming (and hopefully subscriptions to their Dischord channels). My reckon is that they make more moolah from subscribers and shilling sh^tcoins and scams than they do from their trading.
The race for lower mortgage rates is heating up, just like predicted for a very long time
Aussie's First Home Buyer's Bribe has been a roaring success on the first day. The taxpayer picks up the tab if it all goes to seed and the banks have low hanging fruit to feast on. Everyone's a winner.
Property prices in suburbs popular with first home buyers will jump more than the 0.5 per cent predicted by Treasury modelling in the short term after the rollout of the government’s new 5 per cent deposit scheme, economists and mortgage brokers say.
Labor’s election commitment took effect on Wednesday, expanding the First Home Guarantee so first buyers could avoid paying commercial lenders’ mortgage insurance for deposits as low as 5 per cent
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/unprecedented-demand-on-day-on…
I wonder if NZ could have got another 10-20% leg higher on our Ponzi if they had pulled out all stops... and RBNZ had not have jacked OCR so high.
Leading to so many questions,
- how low do rates have to go to restart it?
- will the Aussie Ponzi pops like ours or will measures like this and nuts high migration run it for another 10 years?
High LVR loans used to be described by APRA and the RBA as a risk in the financial system. In 2018 when Governor Bullock was the head of financial system and was concerned about such things.
Given there isn’t a stated end point to the 5% deposit scheme high LVR loans risk becoming a feature of the financial system. It will be interesting to see how the Bank and regulators speak about high LVR loans in future.
The cost to the borrower and future borrowers is clearly going to be greater.
Why is NZ so NIMBY
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/tirau-starbucks-and-burger-king-decision-…
nothing is open at midnight apart from overpriced petrol stations....
LOG PRICES STABLE, PROSPECTS IMPROVE
Unless you are exporting pruned timber to the US that is.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/574679/timber-industry-welcomes-10-p…
Reinsurers would like to thank all climate change cry babies. Well done you!
With loss activity in 2025 proving “exceptionally benign” since the LA wildfire losses in Q1, Autonomous has suggested the big four European reinsurers (Munich Re, Swiss Re, Hannover Re, and SCOR) could see a collective benefit of almost €2 billion in future results.
https://www.reinsurancene.ws/europes-big-four-reinsurers-could-see-e2bn…
According to statistics, many datasets have probabilistic distribution.
"This year has been exceptionally benign"... compared to what?
Oh that's right, the trend.
But let's ignore that and focus on a short time horizon.
SMH
It was colder than predicted yesterday. Global warming is BS.
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