Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The big change today was Bank of China launching a 4.28% one year fixed mortgage rate, a new market low. Other to cut rates today included NBS, Kainga Ora, All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Exceda and NBS both changed rates down today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
REVERTING TO THE OLD PLAYBOOK AGAIN
The RBNZ has announced it will ease loan-to-value ratio lending restrictions. Banks will be allowed to write more low-deposit mortgages to property investors and home buyers.
LOOKING FOR A SPRING UPTICK
The REINZ House Price Index rose +0.8% in September from August, and they say industry salespeople are 'cautiously optimistic'. But it a brave view, given that immigration has vanished, and the population is ageing, and too many house-buyers have left for Australia. There is a buyer-friendly demographic building.
STILL A BUYERS MARKET
QV says the average value of NZ homes dropped almost -$10,000 in Q3 with Auckland values down -$38,000. They confirm it was still a buyers market in the September quarter.
FAILURE TO LAUNCH
But that 'cautious optimism' is not what the wider consumer economy is signaling. Electronic card activity data for September shows that after two consecutive months of gains, retail spending fell again.
NZX50 FALLS AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.8% in its Monday session so far. That puts it -2.1% lower over the past five working days. It is up +1.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +3.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down another -1.0% today so far. Precinct, Port of Tauranga, Goodman Property, and Vital Healthcare all fell while Genesis, Serko, SkyCity and SkyTV were among the gainers
SENTIMENT UP BUT ORDERS LOWER
In Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index rose tin September from August’s three-month low, staying above the long-run average. Business conditions were unchanged, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment. However, forward orders slipped into contraction indicating softer demand ahead.
BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Singapore was bracing for a +2.0% year-on-year Q3-2025 GDP expansion, down from the +4.5% expansion they had in Q2-2025. But they actually got a +2.9% expansion in the September quarter. Services and construction did more heavy lifting there than was assumed when all the focus was on the troubles their factory sector was having.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bps on Monday at 2.54%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is also down -1 bp from yesterday at 4.30%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps at 1.78%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.12%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate down -4 bps to 4.10%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.06%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now down -0.8% in Tuesday trade so far. The ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down another -0.7%. Hong Kong is up +0.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.5% from yesterday. Singapore is up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Monday session up +1.6% on the S&P500 making back about half of Friday's big drop.
OIL SLIPS
The oil price in the US is down almost -50 USc at just over US$59.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$63.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been a few trades today and the price has firmed slightly to $56/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$66 from yesterday at this time, now at US$4140/oz and new highs. Silver is up at almost US$53/oz.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar has slipped -20 bps from yesterday, now at 57.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 87.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at just under 61.9.
BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,322 and down -1.4% from this time this time yesterday. Volatility has again been low, just on +/- 0.9%.
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26 Comments
"New Cook Strait ferries to be built by large Chinese shipbuilding company...including a fixed price and a completion date set for 2029"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360854353/new-cook-strait-ferries-be-bu…
Saving us billions? Like $2 billion or more? Must have really done it on the cheap
That would be the billion/s in terminal redevelopment for the original larger vessels (unfunded by NZRail & Labour), now no longer required.
Wasn't it going to be $3 billion all up? So if they saved over $2 billion, its now under $1 billion (including the cancellation of the previous ferries).
Less the funds already spent...on both the infrastructure and the ferries that were cancelled.
Nevermind, there will be considerable creative accounting performed to ensure that the outcome ends up costing less at announcement.
By the time the truth outs (if ever) there will be something else to bury our heads in our hand s about.
The mighty Richard Werner, author of Princes of the Yen, ECB critic, and general rabble rouser, noted gold's ATH. He goes on to predict a continued surge to $10,000. Highly recommend his Substack.
Gold is breaking higher, $5k here we come.
This is the financial equivalent of a tsunami siren.
China has facilitated the creation of a gold-backed financing system for BRICS nations, enabling them to fund infrastructure projects independently of the IMF and U.S. Treasuries. This new framework leverages gold both as collateral and a benchmark for settlement, reflecting a significant move toward financial sovereignty and de-dollarisation within the BRICS bloc.
China's gold-backed BRICS financing system signals an important shift in global financial architecture, giving emerging economies new options for sovereign infrastructure funding without reliance on legacy Western institutions.
Some people are starting to pay attention.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/chinas-gold-strategy-reshaping-globa…
Great post. But why then, did you post last week that Gold may be done at USD 4,000 ???
Big day in Aussie. PMGOLD up 3.3% and volume off the hook. ETPMAG also up 3.8%. Both in my bags.
That's one way to sidestep the question: "why did you post last week that Gold may be done at USD 4,000 ?"
Watch out Phoenix for the inspector on the job. The inspector likes to point their boney finger at the team
I wonder what kinda of Gold exposure various KiwiSaver funds take?
Are TPM (Te Pāti Māori) crashing and burning in full public view?
Explosive email accuses Te Pāti Māori MP of $133k overspend | RNZ News
One can only hope...
"Do you know who I am...and who my mother is?"
I will be the first to admit it was trash behaviour if true, which it likely is.
Many Maori don't support this behaviour, don't vote for TPM. Pakeha have to be mature enough to recognise this, these people speak as much for me as David Seymour does for all pakeha.
Last sentence very true.
But bashing Labour's with TPM behavior is going to feature significantly next election IMO.
Totally, that's what I would do. I think TPM are a shambles, like the Greens, I could not support a L/TPM/G coalition as much as I'm disappointed in Nats etc.
I am pakeha and I have great nieces and nephews who are as Maori & Pacifica as any are found anywhere for their age group. Personally I believe the parliament of the time had wisdom, purpose and foresight in establishing the Maori seats. I also think that under the guidance of Dame Tariana Turia and Sir Pita Sharples during the Key/English government that progress was made substantially and effectively to the benefit of Maori in general. It is to my mind then a tragedy that the inheritors of those great founders’ work, in both principles and performance, have markedly done the reverse.
I've seen a lot happen in NZ politics and society in my 70 years when people could debate & disagree in the work cafeteria & pub however I think we're now seeing the effects of social media's echo Chambers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360853652/one-seven-kiwis-believe-viol…
Police do not really investigate theft, more and more will take things into their own hands, so to speak.
People still want justice.
There was an olf farmer in the UK who was being terrorized by local youth, police ignored him, he hid under the stairs of his house, removed a stair and had a shotgun pointed on the door, sure enough the frear less youths came back and he shot one.... killed a youth, got manslaughter not murder.
He should have positioned one of the old badger gin traps instead. 8” jaws would do it. Remember “Straw Dogs.”
Contemporary NZ "justice" is increasingly & rightly held in contempt
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/575243/coward-punch-killer-filmed-v…
Sort of sounds like the old TV Mission Impossible series. You know, the introduction to each episode warned - “this tape will self destruct in 5 seconds.” And it did too.
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