Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has launched a 4.39% one year fixed rate. Details here. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB also dropped its term deposit rates today, as did Heartland. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NO LONGER AN ENGINE OF GROWTH
In the year to June, our population grew just +0.7%, down from +1.7% in 2024 and +2.3% in 2023. And for the first time since 2013 (excluding the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022) natural increase (births minus deaths) made a larger contribution to population growth than net migration (arrivals minus departures).
DOWN -1% IN A WEEK
Prices for SMP and WMP at the overnight dairy Pulse auction fell about -1% from last week's full auction, and down about -1.5% in NZD terms. Overall these prices are now down -9% in a year. They will need to stabilise soon or pick up to enable the 2025/26 $10/kgMS to hold.
NZX50 STAYS FIRMISH
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index turned firmer in its Monday session, up +0.3% so far. That puts it +0.5% higher over the past five working days. It is up +2.8% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare recovered a sharpish +1.7% today, still caught in US tariff purgatory. Serko, Sky TV, Vulcan Steel, and a2 Milk lead the gainers with Argosy, Vista Group, Turners, and Gentrack the key decliners.
S&P CALLS OUT SMOKE-&-MIRRORS
Because water-council controlled organisations (WCCOs) have the potential to leverage up quickly under the proposed Local Water Done Well reforms, ratings agency S&P Global says if this occurs, it could have an eventual impact on the credit ratings on parent councils. The shifting of assets and liabilities off-balance-sheet may ease the optics but not the underlying credit risk, they say. The underlying liabilities will continue to weigh on council credit ratings. The S*P Global report is here (requires registration).
BUILDING A WARCHEST
The RBNZ revealed today that it had purchased NZ$257 mln of foreign currency, the largest monthly purchase since March 2011. That took its foreign currency intervention capacity to $26.8 bln, a record high. But it really isn't much of a warchest, equal to US$15.5 bln and far less than some large banks own internal capacities let alone a herd of bank FX traders.
UP-PRESSURE IN AUSTRALIA
In Australia, inflation is rising, and by more than expected. The RBA meets next Tuesday top decide on its cash rate, and this seems to put the kibosh on the chance of any cut. In fact, a rate hike might get some airtime in their review.
SWAP RATES ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are will likely be little-changed again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps on Tuesday to 2.50%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.76%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.06%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Monday's rate up +1 bp to 4.01%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 3.98%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up +0.2% in Wednesday trade so far. However, the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +1.9%. Hong Kong is down -0.3% at its open. Shanghai is up +0.1% to start their Wednesday trade. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +0.2% on the S&P500 and another new record high. It's all wait-&-see on the Xi-Trump talks at present, not to ignore tomorrow's Fed decision..
OIL LOWER
The oil price in the US is -US$1 lower to just under US$60.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just on US$64.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE SOFTER AGAIN
There have been some more trades today but at lower prices, the latest at $53/NZU. We haven't seen a price that low since mid-August, 2024. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD TURNS DOWN
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$31 from yesterday, now at US$3973/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this yesterday at 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at 62.2.
BITCOIN SOFTER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$112,535 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.6%.
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20 Comments
We are in the middle of an interest.co.nz commentator’s wet dream; house prices down, immigration almost non existent, tax cuts, rent inflation near zero, economy in recession. Luxon must be best PM ever right?
Haha, well said.
You guys must lead a sheltered life.
I’d say the opposite - I like the economy to be buzzing.
Same - but in a manner that is actually sustainable and not reckless (ie avoiding excessively loose monetary and fiscal policy and immigration settings that can by justified by infrastructure ready for all the new arrivals).
What we had wasn't a healthy 'buzzing' economy. It was a drunk rockstar being fueled by drugs and alcohol. Not good diet and exercise - ie sustainable and healthy.
Fair point. I’d say there were periods where the economy was a genuine rockstar, and others where the drugs kicked in. But I reckon that’s better than the low confidence self doubting nobody we are becoming.
We are in the middle of an interest.co.nz commentator’s wet dream; house prices down, immigration almost non existent, tax cuts, rent inflation near zero, economy in recession. Luxon must be best PM ever right?
Hmmm. We still live largely paycheck to paycheck, but not spending like drunken sailors. Does the govt need to hand out free alcohol to motivate people?
Look at Aussie. Saw a funny parody of an Aussie mortgage brokering business all talking about the numbers chalked up for the month. This was interspliced with the infamous scene from The Big Short when they go out to interview the wide boys signing up subprime loans. The mortgage brokers casually admit to writing an enormous volume of loans - about 60 a month, up from 10–15 four years earlier - with little to no due diligence. It's hilarious.
How will Aotearoa get its mojo back? Govt-sponsored subprime loan industry?
Spend a little and save a little makes you better off by the end when the 65th bell rings
I'd happily swap it all for a root and branch review of our judiciary. Our criminal justice system is not fit for purpose, a few years for a coward punch manslaughter conviction. A few months for vehicular manslaughter. We need to build more jails and 4x current sentencing.
And you're thinking of voting for the others?
Why? Years sentenced for a given crime is an arbitrary number right - very little science to it
The arbitrary number has been trending down, to the point where if you are the victim of crime, it’s probably someone that’s done it many times before and could have been locked up instead.
Great comment Jimbo 👌😂
Facing reality is tough huh?!
Indonesia Issues First Yuan-Denominated Bonds Worth $842 Million, directly circumventing the US dollar system.
If true, that's significant.
Would be easy to sell into China
BHP has agreed to settle about 30% of its spot iron ore sales to China RMB starting from Q4. the fourth quarter of 2025, Makes sense for China’s long-term strategy to reduce dependence on the dollar for global commodities and aligns with broader efforts to internationalize the yuan.
https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2025/10/10/bhp-and-china-yua…
"The government is pushing ahead with changes to foreign investment fund rules and fringe benefit tax, and looking to refine Working for Families and Family Boost as part of its refreshed tax and social policy work programme."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/577218/govt-pushes-ahead-with-chang…
WFF needs serious changes. It’s basically become “not working for families”, because a working couple is barely eligible, even on minimum wage. I’m not a fan of government handouts at all, but if there’s ever a time when you need one, it’s when you have young kids. Free PT for oldies no matter how rich, free power for oldies no matter how rich, but parents basically get nothing.
WFF needs serious changes. It’s basically become “not working for families”, because a working couple is barely eligible, even on minimum wage
I thought it was essentially a prop for the Ponzi.
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