A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; asking prices weaken, solid improvements in business data, Opes censured, NZGB demand still hot, flood risks & mitigation in focus, swaps dip, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Liberty Financial cut its floating and 1 year fixed rates later yesterday. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda cut all its 6mth to 3 year TD rates late yesterday. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE REALISTIC
Sellers are living in the past less now. Average asking prices on Trade Me Property cooled in most regions in November. A surplus of listings is forcing new realism in the housing markets.

A MINOR RISE FROM DEEP WEAKNESS
September quarter manufacturing sales rose +0.9% on a volume basis from the same quarter in 2024, but that base was particularly weak. From September 2023 it was down -0.5%, and from September 20022 it was down a massive -7.3%.

SURPRISING REVENUE STRENGTH
Even better, the overall business financial data for Q3-2025 is surprisingly strong, with sales up +4.0% from the same quarter in 2024. In fact, this StatsNZ data claims retail revenues were up +4.8% on the same basis, wholesale revenues up +7.2%. One of the largest sector, food & beverage, was apparently up a massive +11.4%. The other very large sector was up +6.4%. The decliners were electricity, textiles, mineral processing, and education. The overall net positive will feed into next week's release of Q3-2025 GDP.

RENEWABLES CLEAN UP THIS YEAR
Official monitoring of our electricity production shows that just a touch under 90% was produced in the September 2025 quarter from renewable sources. That level was 81.2% in the same 2024 quarter. More geothermal capacity came on line this year, and hydro capabilities weren't as stunted as last year. Generation from coal was down -67% and generation from gas was down -22%. It probably helped that the economy itself is misfiring keeping demand lower than otherwise.

ADVISER CENSURED
Christchurch-based property and financial advisory firm Opes Group (Opes Partners/Accounting/Property/Mortgages/ etc., etc.) has been censured by the FMA for breaching their financial advice provider obligations. Opes claims the FMA didn't identify any actual client harm, just deficient systems.

A FOCUS ON FLOOD MITIGATION
The Auditor General says Councils need reliable information, clear plans, and effective community engagement to protect people and property from increasing flood risks. Flooding is the nation's most frequent natural hazard, and climate change is increasing the threat they say. "Recent events show how livelihoods, property, and essential services can be disrupted or destroyed by flooding."

KEEPING UP WITH INFLATION
According to the Law Society, there are now 17,504 practising lawyers, a +2.9% increase from last year.

DO OUR NEW QUIZ
The latest quiz is now out. You can do it here.

NZX50 FLAT
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up just +0.1% so far on Thursday. That puts it down -1.0% over the past five working days. It is up +2.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.2% so far today. Fletcher, SkyTV, Serko, and Ryman headline the gains but Scales, EBOS, Tourism Holdings, and Kiwi Property Group lead the decliners.

STILL IN HOT DEMAND
There was another well supported NZ Govt bond tender today in three maturities. They attracted 127 bids worth $1.84 bln for the $450 mln on offer. 31 bids won something. In all cases yields were higher than the prior equivalent event for each maturity.

NO LONGER RISING
Livestock prices seem topped out now. The latest meat schedules/offers are in retreat, taking the top off recent price gains. Of course, some of this is seasonal.

MORE SECURITISING
Avanti Finance is active in Australia. Moody's has just assigned ratings for their third Australian vehicle loan ABS for AU$348 mln of debt securities. Ninety six percent of this got an investment grade rating. Avanti's activity there is via their 2019 acquisition of BFS (Branded Financial Services). BFS has a AU$900 mln loan book. This loan paper is not available to retail investors, only professional fund managers.

NEGATIVE AUSSIE LABOUR MARKET TRENDS
In Australia, their November labour market report showed employment fell -21,300 (s.a.) from October, but remained +182,400 higher than a year ago. Full-time employment fell -56,500 but part-time employment rose +35,200. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. Underemployment rose to 6.2%.

SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates maybe lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.74%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.84%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps from yesterday at 4.60%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +6 bps at 4.61%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.14%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is up +0.2% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.1% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.6% but Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7% in a relief rally that the Fed didn't do something stupid.

OIL FIRM
The oil price in the US is slightly firmer at just under US$59/bbl while the international Brent price is up +50 USc at just on US$62.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market transactions are small and far between, but still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMER, SILVER UP AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$25/oz from yesterday, now at US$4239/oz. Silver is still rising to a new record high, now just under US$63/oz

NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 58.2 USc and its highest since early October. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is at just under 62.3 and up +40 bps.

BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$90,759 and down -1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just under +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».