Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Unity Money has cut its floating rate. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank has raised some longer rates, details here. But Southern Cross Partners have trimmed their rate. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TENANTS GETTING XMAS BONUS
MBIE data shows that residential rents are declining while the number of properties being rented is increasing. Other than in the property market inflation compounds and it is rare for decreases. But in property, rents are falling, house prices are not rising, and with lower recent interest rates, borrowers rolling over are facing lower mortgage repayments. All this should be putting extra cash in household budgets. But doesn't necessarily mean it will be spent, not after most in the property market had been burned by years (decades) of these factors forever going up. Rebuilding household cash balances will likely come first.
BY THE WAY ..
The REINZ will be releasing its report for November real estate activity at 9am Tuesday. Of course, we will have full coverage at that time.
SURPRISE CONTRACTION
The latest BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Services Sector Index showed that the services industries moved further into contraction in November, 'posing downside risk to even modest growth expectations for early next year'. It's another bucket of cold water on economic recovery hopes.
$6.7 MLN TO MAKE IT GO AWAY
ASB has acknowledged anti-money laundering failures at the bank as the RBNZ files a civil court case. The ASB CEO apologised.
FMA PROBES CHANCE VOIGHT
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) says it's investigating Christchurch-based Chance Voight Investment Corporation Ltd, "its subsidiaries and persons and entities associated with the Chance Voight Group." Bernard Terence Whimp is Chance Voight's sole director, according to Companies Office records. The FMA sought interim liquidators for six Chance Voight entities, with PwC appointed. The FMA notes a Chance Voight subsidiary took ownership of Patterson Wealth Partners Ltd in November.
A NEW QUIZ IS OUT
Our quiz has been refreshed for the new week. You can do it here.
NZX50 LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. That puts it down -0.8% over the past five working days. It is up +2.4% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% so far today. Infratil, Investore, F&P Healthcare, and NZX gain today while Gentrack, Vista Group, Hallensteins, and Contact Energy decline.
THE RETURN OF BERNARD WHIMP LOOKS UNLIKELY TO STAND
The FMA said it is investigating Christchurch-
THE SURGE CONTINUES, DOUBLING IN A YEAR
The latest weekly Government bond turnover level on secondary markets is remaining unusually high. We have never before had three weeks in a row that averaged more than $100 bln/week. The previous similar high was on October 10, 2025. A year ago it was averaging $45 bln on that same basis.
JAPAN BUSINESSES UPBEAT
In Japan, a series of Q4-2025 business sentiment surveys show good or rising confidence levels, now up to a four year high. This is true for large firms (recall our reports of how they are winning against the Trump tariff-taxes), the local services sector, and now a good jump for small businesses.
CHINA SAG I
In China, new home prices across their 70 major cities dropped -2.4% in November from a year ago, deepening from a 2.2% decline in the previous two months. The latest results are the 29th consecutive month of price drops and the steepest pace since August. Beijing is involved in a long struggle to overcome the seemingly endless weakness in their property sector. The price declines for housing resales are deeper, but not more sharp even if they are just relentless.
CHINA SAG II
China's retail sales were notably weak in November, rising just +1.3% from a year ago and far below the expected +2.9% (with some expecting a +3.3% gain). This is a real cold-water moment for the Chinese economy and will undoubtedly bring emergency actions from Beijing. One reason for the weakness may have been the end of consumer goods subsidies, and the widespread expectation that they would be reinstated. Such subsidies are a trap on public finances.
CHINA SAG III
Chinese industrial production rose +4.8% in November, below the expected +5.0% rise and near the lowest growth level since late 2023. Despite its lowish level, there are reasons to be sceptical of even this level. (See next item.)
CHINA SAG IV
But November electricity production in China was up only +2.7% from the same month a year ago, showing up the October year-on-year surge as an outlier.
SWAP RATES DIP
Wholesale swap rates may be marginally softer today across the maturity curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.48% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.84%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps from this morning, now at 4.67%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday's rate up +3 bps at 4.30%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from this morning at 4.18%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY WEAKER
The local equity market is down -0.2% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.8% but Shanghai is only down -0.1% so far. Singapore is down -0.4% at its open. Wall Street is still in after-hours trading and the S&P500 futures suggest it will open tomorrow up +0.3%.
OIL SOFTER
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc at just on US$57.50/bbl while the international Brent price is at just under US$61.50/bbl. Both levels are two month lows.
CARBON PRICE INCHES LOWER
Secondary market transactions are still small and far between, but now down at $39.55/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FIRMER, SILVER UP TOO
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$24/oz from this morning, now at US$4324/oz and very close to a new record high. Silver is rising to, now just on US$62.70/oz but still below its record high
NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this morning, now just under 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.2 and marginally firmer than this morning.
BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$89,353 and up +0.6% from this morning. Volatility has been modest also at +/- 1.4%.
A COMMENT ON COMMENTS
Please refrain from using the comments facility on this website from participating in culture-war blame-games, especially in light of the Sydney tragedy.
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9 Comments
ASB has acknowledged anti-money laundering failures at the bank as the RBNZ files a civil court case. The ASB CEO apologised.
Let's hope this doesn't make life more difficult for law-abiding ASB customers. Given that ASB is the love child of CBA, that cannot be guaranteed.
Merry Xmas here is your mortgage rate rise and a piece of coal….
Final paragraph. There has now been near to 10 month’s worth of the qualifying comment criteria. Thankfully by and large the extreme end of posts, vitriol, debasement and like has disappeared. It is therefore unfortunate and disappointing that the editor has seen it as still being necessary to include this type warning.
Sadly there used to be Culture and Politics in the USA.
Now it seems there is just Politics.
I hope we haven't lost a commenter today. It's reasonable to accept that the site owners can moderate comments if they want to.
I hope you are right. The subject identity, if I have it right, is a worthwhile contributor here. Some heat of the moment at play, and given the proximity and ties to those involved as explained, that is very obviously understandable. This is a good site to provide reasoned information and opinion. Stay with it then.
Well David did say in this mornings brief that there’s no need to comment on the Bondi event on this financial website but what do you know, people can’t help themselves.
Woolworths FY25 Net Profit After Tax to Sales: 1.4%
Coles FY25 Net Profit After Tax to Sales: 2.4%
Treasurer of Aussie Jim Chalmers went on offensive claiming that the govt ban on supermarket price gouging is now law - amendments to the Food and Grocery Code are now in place, setting clear rules for very large retailers. The ACCC will police the new regime, with penalties of up to $10 million for Coles or Woolworths if they breach it.
This is gaslighting. Kroger's (U.S. grocery chain) margins over past 30 years have ranged from -0.5% to 2.6%. If Kroger cut prices by 1.5% they’d be losing money in 2025. Food prices are up about much as the money supply is.
When you rely on money printing for non-productive purposes, you cannot complain about the prices of rising food and household goods.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-14/coles-woolworths-hit-back-at-pri…
Platinum has just broken out above 1,700-1,800 USD/oz, marking its highest level since around September 2011 and confirming a 14‑year high.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum
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