Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac has raised TD rates marginally for terms 9, 12 and 18 months. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BUSY RENTAL MARKET
Dominant Auckland realtor is reporting that they had an unusual level of activity for renting in December. They rented almost 600 properties in the month, a +9.3% gain on the same month in 2024. They manage 17,500 properties on behalf of landlords. The most popular type is still the three bedroom standalone house in key school zones. They report that rents are stable despite the lift in activity. They also note that "There is currently plenty of stock in the CBD apartment market".
LOW COST/QUALITY RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
It is now legal to build granny flats in residential backyards without needing building or resource consents. This deregulation of extended living is expected to add up to 13,000 such units in the next decade. Fee savings are expected to be more than $5000 per unit. The granny flats building consent exemption allows small standalone dwellings up to 70 square metres in size to be built without a building consent if it has a simple design and meets the Building Code, if homeowners notify their local council before they commence building and once it is completed, if the work is carried out or supervised by licensed building professionals, if all exemption conditions are met. The exemption does not apply to house extensions, any conversion work, nor to any internal alterations to existing dwellings.
UGLY COST SHOCK
We should report that yesterday there was a huge disparity in electricity prices between North Island and South Island. H/T Tony. In the North Island prices were more than $150/MWhr while in the South Island they were under $2/MWhr. It seems to have calmed down today.
IT WAS A TOUGH QUARTER, CONFIRMED
There was more detail released today related to the Q3-2025 GDP data. This revealed that household saving decreased -$928 mln, household net disposable income fell, income tax payable rose, interest received by households fell -5.9%, compensation of employees rose just +0.1%, dividends received by households fell -2.2%.
OUR LATEST QUIZ IS STILL OPEN
Our quiz has been refreshed for this new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 TURNS DOWN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today. That puts it down -0.2 over the past five working days. It is up +7.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.5% so far today. The main gainers today are Channel Infrastructure (+2.1%), Spark (+1.3%), Fletchers (+1.1%) and a2 Milk (+0.9%). The main decliners are Infratil (-2.9%), Vista (-2.1%), Synlait (-1.6%), and SkyTV(-1.5%).
POOR FISCAL MANAGEMENT RAISES CHANCE OF CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADE
The inability of some Australian state governments to repair their balance sheets after the pandemic free-spending is worrying at least one credit rating agency. S&P is warning NSW and Queensland in particular that they are now at greater risk of a downgrade from their AA+ rating. Heavy infrastructure spending and rising entitlement claims are hurting, as well as the political reluctance to raise taxes.
HIGH & NOT FALLING
And staying in Australia, their consumer inflation expectations came in at 4.6% in January, little changed from the 4.7% in December. Households still see elevated price pressures and has been at this general level for more than eight months. (Official November CPI was 3.4% and the December update comes on January 28, 2026.)
SWAP RATES TURN LOWER
Wholesale swap rates probably retreated today across the maturity curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.65%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.85%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.15% and down -3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.43%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +5 bps at 4.48%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.14%.
EQUITIES HESITATE
The local equity market is down -0.4% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.7% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.5% as their financial market worries extend to a second day.
OIL EASES
The oil price in the US is down -50 USc at just over US$60.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$64.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FALLS HARD AGAIN
Secondary market transactions have taken another sharp fall, today down -$1.50 to $33.50/NZU. That is its lowest since at least 2021 and is the lowest in our data set. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
PRECIOUS METALS EASE
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4605/oz and off its record high. Silver and platinum have both retreated too.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still just on 61.5 and little-changed.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$96,389 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.6%.
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14 Comments
Canadians investing in real estate funds are in a pickle as their funds are locked up. They thought they were safe. You can't go wrong with bricks and mortar, particularly in Canada.
Not long after he and his father invested a combined C$2 million ($1.5 million), Romspen announced it was blocking withdrawals - a last-resort tactic that lets funds avoid selling assets when too many clients want to pull out their money.
The principal Andre assumed would always be within reach was suddenly sealed off, with no timeline for release. He’s getting only a thin, 2% stream of monthly income in return - far less than expected.
Every month, Andre’s account statements tell the same story: The cash is still there, but he can’t move it…., …Across Canada, investors who poured billions into private real estate funds suddenly can’t touch their money.
Stung by a deep downturn in the country’s housing market, many of the funds have restricted cash distributions, client withdrawals or both, in a process the industry calls “gating.” Often, the companies don’t say when access will resume. About C$30 billion ($21.7 billion) - almost 40% of the C$80 billion invested in such funds - is now locked up…..”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/canadian-real-estate…
and its gone. https://youtu.be/-DT7bX-B1Mg
XD
I see Scott Robertson has also gone... shame we can't do the same with our current crop of 'political superstars'
Maybe, just maybe, in old school parlance for each field, the talent on offer in both the common room and the prefects’ study, is simply not up to the requisite mark?
I'll just leave this here...
Razor's removal is the nail in the coffin for National i feel
I see the both Canada and China have had a eerily similar housing market crash to Nz, all down a real 27% or so over the last 4 years.
I wonder what depths we will all hit? Come the bottom, in 2028 or so.
Just lucky Kiwis, have not bet it all on property........
Young Canadians, especially young men, tended to vote against Mark Carney’s Liberals in 2025, mainly because they thought he didn't give a rats about them on housing and the cost of living. Liberals led in the overall popular vote due to stronger support from older Canadians - because they believed he would protect the status quo in favor of the boomers and the Canada Ponzi.
And the irony of Trump being in favor of affordable housing shouldn't go amiss. But he has made noises similar to what Ardern promised - affordable housing but doesn't want house prices to fall.
What levers will Carney now pull to stave off further crashing of the Canadian ponzi?
I see now that thousands of new 70m2 builds, are going to be built NZ wide........our ponzi has truly had the plough shears go through it.
All hope is lost in NZ spruikertown?
Carney needs to focus on keeping Alberta.
Trump is actively drafting an affordability-focused executive order that would let Americans tap 401(k) and 529 accounts for home down payments, likely on a penalty‑free basis, but nothing is law yet and details (caps, taxes, eligibility) remain uncertain. Existing rules already allow 401(k) loans or taxable/penalized withdrawals for a down payment, so the shift is about relaxing penalties and restrictions, not inventing the use case from scratch.
He's not keen on the 50-year mortgages.
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/trump-mortgage-retirement-downpaym…
Dominant Auckland realtor is reporting that they had an unusual level of activity for renting in December. They rented almost 600 properties in the month, a +9.3% gain on the same month in 2024.
This is evidence that net immigration is making a comeback. The property market will follow. As they say, history doesn't repeat but it sure rhymes.
Evidence of something sure.. but that's a leap
Who are 'they'?
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