A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Friday; no retail rate changes, factories happier, why inflation seems high (it is), investor borrowers more active, NZGBs very popular, swaps rise, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MANUFACTURING ENDS ON A HIGH
There has been a broad-based improvement in the manufacturing sector with the December PMI rising on better new order flows (the best since the pandemic, and prior to that, the best since mid-2017). It is a shift up that has been suggested by other earlier economic metrics and will be welcomed, the more so because every component, and every region (except Otago) is now expanding.

WHY INFLATION FEELS HIGHER THAN 3%
Food price inflation fell to 4.0% in December, down from 4.4% in November. The grocery portion was up +4.6% and meat was up +7.4% which is probably why consumers sense inflation is currently high and rising. Food makes up 18% of the CPI, which will be reported on Friday, January 23, 2026. (Analyst views are mostly in agreement that 3.0% will be the December CPI outcome too, as it was in September.)

ELECTRICITY ZOOMS, RENTS STAGNATE
Stats NZ is moving towards a monthly CPI releases starting in about a year. In the meantime, components of the CPI other than food are also being released monthly. Electricity was up +12.2% in December, household gas was up +17.5%. Petrol rose only +1.4% and believe it or not, domestic airfares fell -1.2% (but not international airfares which were up +6.6%. Rents for tenants changing house were down -0.3%, but for those staying put, they rose +1.3%.

PUBLIC TRANSPORT INFLATION
Update: And speaking of inflation, Auckland Transport said today that effective February 1, their fares will increase by an average of +5.1%.

A BIGGER SHARE
New bank lending for mortgages held up pretty well in November, bolstered by an outsized rise by investor borrowing. In fact, since this data series began in April 2021, investors' share of new mortgage lending is now at almost 29%, a new high. Floating terms accounted for 53% of new investor lending. For owner-occupiers it was 47%.

BIG DEMAND, STABLE YIELDS
Yesterday, we overlooked reporting the latest NZGB bond tender results. The $450 mln on offer drew 93 bids worth $2.2 bln in two maturities. That was the largest demand since October 2025. Only seven bids were successful for the May 2030 maturity. The effective yield was 3.58%, virtually unchanged from the equivalent prior tender on December 4, 2025. Eleven bids were successful for the May 2035 tender. It's effective yield was 4.31%, also little different to the December 4, 2025 equivalent tender.

AFFIRMED
S&P has affirmed the Greater Wellington regional council debt at AA. But it has warned that a downgrade is possible if the central government's cap on rates undermines the council's revenue forecasts. A downgrade would raise the cost of the council's debt, adding costs when revenue growth is not possible.

OUR LATEST QUIZ IS STILL OPEN
Our quiz has been refreshed for this new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 TURNS BACK UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.6% so far today. That puts it up just +0.3% over the past five working days. It is up +7.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is essentially unchanged today. The major gainers have been Vista (+2.7%), Fletcher Building (+2.4%), Property for Industry,(+2.1%) and Kathmandu (+1.8%). The main decliners have been Sanford (-2.0%), The Warehouse (-1.3%), Tourism Holdings (-1.2%) and AirNZ (-0.9%).

GOOD EXPORT GROWTH
Singapore's (non-oil) exports rose +6.1% in December from a year earlier, a moderated pace of growth from November. (Their refined oil exports grew at more than twice that pace.) This means that Singapore's non-oil full-year 2025 exports came in +4.8% above their equivalent 2024 level.

AUSSIE TOURISM ARRIVALS & TRAVELER DESTINATIONS
In Australia, short term tourist arrivals jumped nearly +20% in November to 831,000, a record high for any November. New Zealand continues to be their largest source of tourists. Aussie travellers chose Indonesia over New Zealand for their outbound travel - just. Then Japan, then China. The US was sixth, the UK ninth, both suffering notable falls in popularity from the same month in 2024.

SWAP RATES TURN BACK UP
Wholesale swap rates probably rose today across the maturity curve as yesterday's rally ran out of steam. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.51% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.70%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.85%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.18% and up +3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.48%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate down -8 bps at 4.48%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at 4.17%.

EQUITIES STILL HESITATE
The local equity market is up +0.6% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.3% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 up +0.3%.

OIL EASES AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down -US$1 at just under US$59.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$63.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE DIPS AGAIN
Secondary market transactions have taken another fall, today down -$1.25 to $32.25/NZU. That is its lowest since at least 2021 and is the lowest in our data set. But there are trades being done - actually more daily activity than in December. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

PRECIOUS HOLD HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$5/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4600/oz and off its record high. Silver is up at US$91/oz and platinum is holding at US$2376/oz.

OTHER METALS STAY ELEVATED
Aluminium is high and rising at US$3170/tonne. Copper is holding high at US$13,140/tonne and near its record. Tin has surged dramatically to US$53,460/tonne and easily a new record high. Nickel has put on a minor spurt too, to US$18,360/tonne. Lead isn't really doing anything at US2090/tonne.

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.6 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN TAKES A BREATHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$95,674 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».