Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A BIG HIT
There has been a big slide in asking prices on the Trade Me Property portal over the last two months of 2025. Average asking price of residential properties listed there sank -$82,500 in November and December. Auckland is down -$126,400. Gisborne has taken a huge hit.
UPTURN CONFIRMED
The overnight dairy auction delivered a modest gain, up +1.5% in USD terms, but up only +0.4% in NZD terms as the US dollar is weakening. However, most of this rise is the same as recorded in last week's Pulse event. But it does cement a second consecutive rise in the full auction after nine consecutive declines. So +7.8% of rises after the -22.5% of falls. Also notable is the much less buyer interest from China, counterbalanced by stronger interest from most other regions.
"SPENDING CLEARLY PICKING UP"
ANZ reports that its card spending tracking shows December levels up +3.9% from a year ago, up +0.4% in December from November. "Spending is clearly picking up. Durables spending is very cyclical, and has the strongest annual growth, at 7.4%. Apparel is the only category for which spending is down versus a year earlier," they saod.
A NOVEMBER ELECTION
The 2026 election date has been confirmed as Saturday, November 7, 2026. It will be a long campaign with the National Party hoping its long-promised economic upturn starts to show benefits for voting households. Parliament is expected to rise on September 24, with dissolution on October 1. Writ day will be October 4, nominations will close at noon on October 8, and advance voting will begin on October 26.
ORGANIC IS 'IN'
Fonterra said its organic business is expanding well based on its 100 North Island suppliers. It says it now wants to recruit more organic suppliers in the North Island, and expand into the South Island where it is seeking suppliers.
OUR LATEST QUIZ IS OPEN TO PLAY
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 SHARPLY WEAKER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.1% so far today. That puts it down -2.5% over the past five working days. But is up +2.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2%. There were just 22 gainers today, led by T&G Global (+2.2%), Kathmandu (+1.8%), Gentrack (+0.5%) and SkyTV (+0.3%). There are 63 decliners, led by The Warehouse (-2.6%), Hallensteins (-2.5%), Fletcher Building (-2.4%), and Ryman (-2.0%).
GOOD TURNAROUND FOR HORT STALWART
T&G Global said they are likely to report between $16 - $20 mln as NPBTx, compared with the 2024 loss of -$6.8 mln. They say they had improved performance across the Group’s three main operating divisions. Apples, supported by strong consumer demand globally for T&G’s premium ENVY and JAZZ apple brands, achieved improved profitability right across the supply chain, and they expect that to continue. VentureFruit, T&G’s global plant variety commercialisation and management business, benefited from the excellent sales performance of the Apples business, as well as growth in the blueberry category. T&G Fresh achieved a materially improved result compared to 2024, due to a variety of business transformation initiatives and growth in key categories, particularly stonefruit and berries.
UP BUT NOT STRONGLY
In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index inched up 0.1% in December from November to +0.42%, following the no-change in the previous month. The recent uptick is led by commodities and an improved homebuilding outlook. But the December rise was less than expected. A year ago its was +0.25%, so nearly a doubling since that tame benchmark.
SWAP RATES MARGINALLY HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally firmer again today on global risk trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.51% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.77%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.34% and up another +1 bp. That is almost a 30 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.57%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Monday's rate up +3 bps at 4.52%. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.29% and now back to 2007 levels
EQUITIES STAY SOFT
The local equity market is now down another -1.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is also down -0.3% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.1% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.1%. Singapore is also down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street started its week down a very sharp -2.1%.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just under US$59.50/bbl while the international Brent price has hardly moved, still just on US$64/bbl.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED BUT LOW
Secondary market has seen few transactions and the price is still $36.20/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD JUMPS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$166/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4836/oz and a new record high. Silver up at US$94.50/oz and platinum has risen to US$2462/oz.
NZD FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.4 and up +20 bps. The USD has fallen to its lowest against the Chinese yuan since mid 2023.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$88,949 and down -3.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.6%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
12 Comments
Guess what? Gold at a much higher ATH than this morning's new ATH by a huge amount and racing towards USD 5,000/troy ounce.
Gold USD$6000.00, Silver $160.00 year end 2026 target? - or both much higher?
The ASX miners I hold made 7x my std Dec/Jan salary, over last 30 days. What a holiday period!
Possibly but will your USD 6,000 by year's end buy you more in the US than today's $4'800 Gold price ? Maybe, maybe not. Still much better than cash losing value in term deposits, or devaluing stocks, crypto, bonds and property.
Big day for gold Dr Y. PMGOLD up 2.84% on the ASX and GDX up a whopping 4.6% - now 18% YTD and a 182% over past 12 months.
Silver having a quiet day, but proxy ETPMAG up 28% just in January.
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 58.4 USc.
Or seen another way, the USD is devaluing, and it's only the very beginning. This will exacerbate inflation in the US which is already much higher than their CPLie suggests, whilst Trump puts pressure on the Fed to lower rates. Higher long term bond yields to follow, with crashing treasuries, and rising interest rates killing the servicing of the gigantic US debt. Stocks, bonds and property will suffer, where will the money continue to increasingly flow into ............ ?
Taiwan’s greatest strategic asset is its semiconductor industry, led by TSMC. A plan has been announced that at least 40% of TSMC’s manufacturing capacity will be relocated to the U.S.
The scale of the relocation is staggering. TSMC’s commitments in the US already exceed USD165 billion, and now the government has agreed to push that figure toward USD500 billion - nearly 60% percent of Taiwan’s GDP. Japan and South Korea have made pledges too, but proportionally far smaller.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-administration-offers-tariff-re…
Somewhere secure Taiwan is constructing its own design of a conventional submarine. Odds on somewhere else, even more secure and silent, plans are afoot to follow up with a nuclear powered deep water version. As with Sth Korea already underway, Taiwan possesses all the requisite expertise and technical skills.
I would take this announcement with a grain of salt. It's from the US media. Also, China will have a say in this claimed "agreement".
Timely reminder that house prices are correcting to reflect the employment rate. Ain't life grand. When you strip everything away - house prices reflect wages and, basically, how many people are earning wages in a house-buying household. Get to work everyone - gotta bid up the price of those weatherboard shacks.
It may be considered a generally positive picture that the employment rate trend line slope increased over 30 years when during the same period the population increased 40%. This would obviously support house prices.
What leadership looks and sounds like.
A watershed speech... no likely to be replicated down under?
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.