Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SECOND BEST YEAR EVER
Real estate agencies earned almost $2 bln in residential sales commissions in 2025, a +12.4% rise from 2024.
LARGEST MORTGAGE LENDER NOT SO GUNG HO
ANZ has downgraded its +5% house price growth in 2026 to just +2%. It has noted prices have been flat for three straight years, and now because they expect interest rates to start rising in 2026, that will mean another flat year, according to their review.
HIGHER MILK POWDER PRICES
There was another dairy Pulse auction earlier this morning and that brought some interesting signals. The WMP price came in almost identical to last week's full auction and has been holding at this higher level since the start of 2026 when it made that 7%-plus jump. The SMP price rose a strong +5.9% today from last week, and is now +9% higher than what is was at the end of 2025. Positive signs, but somewhat undermined by the fast-falling USD.
LABOUR MARKET YET TO RISE CONSISTENTLY
Data released by StatsNZ for December shows that filled jobs were flat in in the month, after a solid (revised) rise in November. Basically its been a flat jobs market in the latter part of 2025. This data is drawn from income tax filing, making it a comprehensive record of the number of people in work.
RECORD HIGH, BUT STILL MODEST
The RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity rose to $27.5 bln at the end of December, only a small rise from November, but up a modest $1.7 bln for the year (about +US$1 bln). This rise happened even though the NZD strengthened in the month. In USD, the capacity rose +US$400 mln despite the exchange rate rise. These are still modest levels compared to major bank currency trading capacity on a daily basis.
PLAYED OUR QUIZ YET THIS WEEK?
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 SLIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today. That puts it up +0.4% over the past five working days. It is up +4.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.2%. Stride Property, Hallensteins, Contact, and Vista Group lead the gainers while Briscoes, Goodman Property, Tourism Holdings, and Kathmandu are the key decliners.
A SHARP INFLATION WARNING
In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation even without the growth pressures.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.82%. The China 10 year bond rate is +1 bp firmer at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.27% and down -1 bp today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.63%. But that is now close to 2011 levels. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate up +1 bp at 4.60%. The UST 10yr yield is also little-changed from this time yesterday, now up +1 bp at 4.23%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now up down -0.4% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.9% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.5% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.4%.
OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up +US$2 at just on US$62.50/bbl while the international Brent price now at US$67.50/bbl, mostly due to USD weakness.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS LOW
Secondary market has seen few transactions and the price is now at $34.50/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD TAKES ANOTHER SPURT
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$156/oz and now at US$5208/oz. Silver up +US$3.50 at US$113.50/oz, but platinum is now at US$2665/oz, down -US$20 from this time yesterday.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from this time yesterday at just on 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 63.6 and up +30 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$89,304 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.2%.
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21 Comments
US data center construction jumped +18.5% YoY in October 2025, to a record $42 billion annualized rate.
This is just $3 billion below the $45 billion spent on office buildings. Spending on data centers has increased 300% since Nov 2022.
Over the same period, office building construction has declined -40%. At this rate, data center construction will surpass office building construction levels as early as this year.
A different kind of bricks and mortar.
So demand for Com. real estate in serious decline....data centres profitability dependent upon expanding energy supply that is at best precarious.
Hmmmm.
For sure. To me, commercial-to-residential conversion in the US is a smart move. And it is growing fast from a very low base, concentrated in specific downtowns and policy-friendly jurisdictions. It's a marginal relief valve for the housing shortage, but I'm a believer that it could be a housing solution for the most vulnerable who tend to live in urban areas.
Why the Anglosphere in particular is hellbent on Mad Max environments to protect the status quo is beyond me.
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/commercial-residential-real-estate-…
And water for cooling. Fresh is best apparently, even if that means humanity misses out.
Indeed...but the plebs with no disposable are only useful for the labour they perform...and robots require little H2O.
but great for winter surf parks, NZs first is just down the road from me and I am keen as to join
part of my motivation to fully recover from knew op is this opening, there will be great deals in early hours of the morning
in Melbourne unlimited season is like 5k a year vs a nz ski season pass at 1.5k, no dependence on the snow... great business
Kioxia, the memory firm Toshiba spun out in the 2010s to save itself from bankruptcy, is now worth 10 trillion yen -- or about twice Toshiba's value at its peak.
Kioxia’s valuation has blown out because it sits right at the choke‑point of AI‑driven NAND demand, has just come public into a tightening memory cycle, and investors are pricing it as a pure‑play on AI storage rather than as a legacy PC/smartphone memory name.
Since its Tokyo listing in late 2025, Kioxia’s stock is up roughly 540% year‑to‑date, making it the best‑performing stock in the MSCI World Index and on Japan’s Topix.
i love these stories, pick me the 2026 one/s...
I am picking RocketLab gets a buyout at at least 5 times current cap.
i think RL will rise 3 x a year for next 3 years
Good to see "washed-up" and zombie-like Japanese companies getting a piece of the action. People say Japan has the DGM mentality, but my thinking is that Aotearoa is quite possibly worse at the moment, mainly because we're not as adaptive as we like to think we are.
This is mainly based on the google distributed AI models at a lower op cost using NAND , hard to see dairy or beef farmers entering this market, they only thing we are good at is selling houses to each other at ever increasing valuations... same as it ever was... great place to retire, which it IS!
My daughter is hosting pool party for young law students, talk is grad, a few years here then London.
Come back once you have the Waiheke bach paid off etc. Sadly the opportunities for our smartest are now offshore.
Unless they're entrepreneurial. Which the smartest often aren't - because they're more risk adverse and can talk themselves out of everything.
Funnier thing is, people are making the same comments about the UK having little opportunity and for the young to leave there also.
If AI is to be all powerful then perhaps our best and brightest will not be studying/practising law at all....here or abroad.
would you be prepared to be judged by an AI jury?
same for you defense lawyer i suggest
Assuming AI proceeds as some expect do you think you will have the choice?
It also suggests that widespread shareholding in any successful AI company will be short lived.
Law is mostly pay to win, with the most skilled/expensive lawyers able to exploit loopholes and apply strategy to win where they should probably have lost.
Assuming the wealthy don't have a way to override the AI, a computerized legal system would probably make for a fairer one.
Depends upon the inputs. We know that AI (in its current form) 'hallucinates'.
But whether 'fairer' or not the requirement for human (legal) participation would be at least greatly diminished if not non existent.
People say Japan has the DGM mentality, but my thinking is that Aotearoa is quite possibly worse at the moment, mainly because we're not as adaptive as we link to think we are.
The suicide rate is about 50% higher in Japan, so they're probably sadder.
But your thinking is pretty biased so the conclusion comes before the research.
Unfortunately Aotearoa punches above its weight on suicide P, particularly among young people.
https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2025/05/15/new-zealand-reports-highest-c…
You're not telling me something I don't sadly already know.
Doesn't change the fact that Japans higher overall rate runs contrary to your claims. They don't feel as positive about the place as you do.
The other thing Japan can't do to the same degree as NZ, is slow or reverse it's rate of depopulation.
They're lucky that way.
Less people are richer people, in the true sense.
They went to war over resources, once.
Trouble over oil: America, Japan, and the oil cartel 1934–1935
We conveniently forget to ask: Why? re Pearl Harbour...
Lonely people are usually poorer for it, and the Japanese are a lonelier population.
Less people being wealthier also isn't a certainty, poverty is on the rise in Japan. And they have smaller families and less state support, so 10s of thousands of them are dieing without anyone knowing.
NZ is in a relatively good position (but we also have many problems, some worse, some better than elsewhere). We are younger, so will get to see older populations around the world try various methods and economic models to overcome the inherent issues in depopulating economies. So we will get to find out what works and what doesn't before needing to implement it.
They went to war over resources, but we also shouldn't forget an inevitable Japanese march across Asia that was already underway. That was so brutal, it is not taught in Japanese schools today - compared to Germany where it's rammed down their throats.
Will the Chinese follow suit? I'm not so sure. Hope not.
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