Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac said it is hiking fixed rates on Monday. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac also raised some longer term deposit rates. SBS Bank has trimmed shorter TD rates, raised longer term ones. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
FEELING BETTER ABOUT LIFE
Consumer sentiment is improving. The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey for January shows a lift to its highest level since August 2021. The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) rose 2 points to +1 – the first time it's been net positive in nearly four years. Meanwhile inflation expectations were steady at 4.6%.
CRAIG SIMS JOINING ANZ NZ BOARD AS JOAN WITHERS DEPARTS
Craig Sims, a former ANZ NZ and ASB executive who oversaw the culling of the National Bank brand and merger of ANZ NZ and National Bank onto one IT platform, will become an independent non-executive director of ANZ NZ from April 1. Existing ANZ NZ director Joan Withers will retire from the Board on July 1. She has been a director since July 2013.
NO MORE LOSS-LEADERS?
Lawyers Chapman Tripp are warning that proposed changes to clarify messy parts of the current law on predatory pricing may in fact have the opposite effect, stifling price competition which is a core part of the competitive process. They say the provision as drafted does not clarify the legal position, creates new uncertainties and risks unintended consequences. Basically loss-leaders will be outlawed.
PRIVATISED
Auckland Council has sold its Auckland Film Studios to the Stephen Pryor-owned Xytech Group for $?? mln, one of New Zealand’s foremost screen sector businesses which operates throughout New Zealand and internationally.
WHO KNEW?
Wool prices are rising. In fact, current strong wool prices are now almost +30% higher than year-ago levels, which in turn were up more than +10% on the year before.
WARNED
In March 2024 Aioi Nissay Dowa notified the FMA of a discount issue relating to policies that did not receive their multi-vehicle discount and/or multi-policy discount, resulting in overcharges to customers on their motor vehicle insurance policies. The policies were sold through various vehicle dealerships and online. AIOI overcharged 5,055 customers almost $700,000 over nine years. Now the FMA has issued a warning to them, but because it was self reported quickly after the discovered the issue and made full remediation, no other action will be taken.
BEST THREE MONTHS
Bank housing loan books rose +$2.15 bln in December to $385.6 bln, the third consecutive month of increases over +$2 bln, and the best set since the pandemic. In fact, that caps the best three months ever, pandemic excepted.
COMMERCIAL LENDING MIXED
Meanwhile, lending to businesses rose to a record $142.7 bln as at the end of December with a +3.7% annual gain. Farmers however aren't keen on more debt with essentially unchanged borrowing levels in December from a year ago. Only dairy farmers are borrowing, the others aren't keen.
HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS PROFILE GOES 'SHORT'
Households ended the year with $269.7 bln on deposit at banks, up +4.1% from December 2024. Term deposit balances rose +2.3% in the same year, up +$2.3 bln. These have seen effectively no growth since May however. Deposits in at-call savings accounts are at record levels however, up +$4.0 bln for the year or +5.1%. Household transaction accounts rose +10% to $44 bln.
PLAYED OUR QUIZ YET THIS WEEK?
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN MINOR FIRMING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. That puts it down -0.6% over the past five working days. It is up +4.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% so far today. Argosy Property, Infratil, SkyCity casino, and Tower take the lead in today's market changes; Freightways, Stride Property, Kathmandu, and Ryman are the main decliners.
EASING BACK
Australian producer prices rose +0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q4-2025 to be up +3.5% for calendar 20025. This was an easing of cost pressures and came in softer than market estimates of a 1.1% quarterly rise.
RISING FASTER
Australian loan growth quickened in December, up +7.7% above the same month a year ago. Housing debt rose +6.9%, and loans to businesses were up +9.7%.The overall expansion was the fastest since the pandemic, and prior to that, the fastest in more than fifteen years.
SWAP RATES SLIP
Wholesale swap rates are probably a little lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.51% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.82%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also up +1 bp at 2.25 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +3 bps from yesterday, now at 4.64%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Thursday's rate down -1 bp at 4.62%. The UST 10yr yield is up another +2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.27% and its highest since mid-August 2025.
EQUITIES GENERALLY LOWER AGAIN
But the local equity market is now up +0.3% in Friday trade so far, the only market we follow with gains. The ASX200 is also down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.1% today so far and Shanghai is down -0.9%. Singapore is down -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 dipping -0.1%.
OIL RISES - IN USD IN THE US
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 at just over US$64.50/bbl while the international Brent price holding at US$69/bbl, again shifted by USD weakness.
CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
Secondary market activity has seen very few transactions again but the price firmed slightly to $35/NZU today. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DOWN SHARPLY
In early Asian trade, gold has retreated sharply, down -US$226/oz and now at US$5313/oz. Silver down -US$4 at US$113/oz, and platinum is now at US$2505/oz, down -US$199 from this time yesterday. Aluminium is retreating too.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday against the USD at just on 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 64 and up another +10 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN SLUMPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$82,225 and down -7.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been very high at +/- 4.1%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
18 Comments
Craig Sims was a good operator, he is a good catch for ANZ.
no surprises there...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360931858/kiwi-minister-raises-conce…
48% born overseas!
Over 15 years ago at my Kiwi citizenship ceremony it was clear: as the certificate and a red rose were handed over some were in their best attire and had families and friends cheering and others in scruffy clothes skulked across the stage.
Immigrant - such a loose category. It includes the brain surgeons (too few) and the uber driver (too many), the most patriotic of Kiwis (like myself proud we became Kiwis by choice not accident of birth) and those using it as purgatory (place of suffering to purify the soul before moving on to heaven).
Can follow your drift but not sure “accident” is quite the right fit for those of us born and bred here in NZ? Perhaps incident or circumstance would be better suited?
Either or all work.
Most of who and what we are is by accident. The amount of actual free will we engage is fairly miniscule.
I was born here, but I've also lived a few places. Money is nice and there's some neat stuff out there, but there's some things NZ has you can't get many places, or at least not all together.
Depends what you want I guess. The things I want, can't be bought.
My great grandfather arrived here in 1850. I find it quite a stretch therefore to contend that my being born here was an accident in so far as the location but as to the actual cause, given the contraceptive limitations back in the those days, then yes the conception may well have been an accident. Never quite thought to enquire of that with my parents fair to say.
Well, the point was you didn't fill out your address in advance for the Stork.
Exactly right Painter, well put
A Panama Supreme Court decision has invalidated the long‑standing port concession held by CK Hutchison’s Panama Ports Company at both ends of the Panama Canal. CK Hutchison is Hong Kong–based, and the decision is widely seen as reducing Chinese‑linked influence over critical Canal‑adjacent infrastructure.
The Court ruled the concession and its 2021 25‑year extension unconstitutional, after the comptroller’s audit alleged irregularities, missing payments, and unapproved extensions. The ruling effectively voids contracts that have been in place since the late 1990s for container terminals on the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Canal.
This is political of course. Trump had publicly argued for curbing Chinese control and even floated the idea that Panama should return the Canal to U.S. hands, which Panama’s leadership has rejected.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/hong-kong-companys-concession…
There is already a US high powered fleet in the Caribbean in the neighbourhood of Panama, and now another off shore in the Middle East. In addition whereabouts undisclosed in deep water, nuclear powered submarines in number more than the rest of the world’s combined. There have been a few descriptions of past presidents foreign policies, the slow walk and big stick, the hose for the neighbours fire, stick and carrot but Trump is pure hammer and tongs.
"To the hammer, everything else looks like a nail"
The market cap of gold as a percent of the US money supply (M2) hit an all-time high: higher than its peak in 1980 when inflation and interest rates soared to the mid-teens and, even more shocking the ratio of gold to M2 has hit the all time high recorded during The Great Depression in 1934. In that crisis, the dollar devalued relative to gold by almost 70% on January 31, 1934, the government banned private ownership of gold, and M2 collapsed.
The US economy today looks nothing like the double-digit inflation-prone 1970s or the deflationary bust of the 1930s. True, foreign central banks have been diversifying away from the dollar for years; yet, the 10-year Treasury bond yield peaked at 5% in late 2023 and is now 4.2%.
While parabolic moves often take asset prices higher than most investors would think possible, the out-of-this-world spikes tend to occur at the end of a cycle. In our view, the bubble today is not in AI, but in gold. An upturn in the dollar could pop that bubble, a la 1980 to 2000 when the gold price dropped more than 60%.
- Cathie Wood, Ark Invest
Mmm feels like a rare commodity super cycle
The biggest counter-argument to Wood on gold is "this time is different". That's partially correct. M2 is so perverted now that it's value as an anchor / benchmark is really unknown.
M2 is actually pretty sane. Otherwise your Pumpkin Spice Latte would be $40 tomorrow, and $3 in a few months time.
It's how humans are valuing things at the moment that's perverted. And you do like your sick gain pr0n.
Be quick! Specuvest while you still can! Elon is eventually going to run out of pivots.
Haha what AI stocks is she long on?
I have seen enough amazing ai results in the past two weeks to become a born again believer
not related to valuations but hell the improvement in model is mind blowing
It'll need to be digital Jesus if it's to turn AI investment into some sort of monetizable return.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.