Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised a wider range of rates. And the Co-operative Bank made similar moves. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised its TD rate offer for 2 years and longer. The Co-operative Bank raised almost all its TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A TEN YEAR HIGH
And increase in the labour market 'participation rate' sees the overall jobless rate rise to 5.4%, contrary to virtually all expectations; Stats NZ says both the unemployment rate and the employment rate rose. (Every reader should remember that labour market data is always a lagging indicator.)
BORROWING LIKE IT IS 2022/3
Residential property investors increased their mortgage pile by over +$7 bln to now over $100 bln in 2025 and are taking up mortgage money at a proportionately faster rate than owner-occupiers.
NEW CARS SELL WELL IN JANUARY, ESPECIALLY COMPACT SUVs
There were 9036 new passenger cars sold in January, more than +12% above the same month a year ago and the best January since 2023. There were 7601 used imports registered in the month too, +3% from a year earlier. Less than 81% of new cars were SUV's, the lowest share in quite a while. And now the top selling SUV category is the 'compact' versions.
SURPRISE JUMP
As we noted earlier today, the latest full dairy auction was delayed due to "technical problems". But it did complete, and when the details were finally reported they revealed a big surprise. Overall prices jumped +6.74% in USD. WMP prices were up +5.3%, SMP was up +10.6%, and butter was up +8.8%. This outcome was not signaled by the derivatives market. This is the third overall rise in a row, and the second outsized one since early June. It probably ends angst about the declining diary price trends that started after the May 2025 recent peak, and solidifies the current payout forecasts. However it is worth noting that in NZD these prices are 'only' up +3.1% in NZD terms as the USD devalues. Still, we would have seen that as a 'good' result and recovery over most of the past six month.
HURT BY THE RETREATING USD, OTHERWISE GOOD
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose +2.0% in January from December, recovering earlier slips to be now -2.3% lower than the same month a year ago.. Dairy prices rose +3.3% from December, rebounding from four months of falling prices, and after today's February jump those gains will be maintained. Meat prices are now up +15% from a year earlier. The overall NZD Commodity Price Index rose +1.3% for the January month, but is down -3.2% for the year with a stronger NZD offsetting higher commodity prices overseas.
OUR NEW QUIZ IS READY FOR YOU
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NZX50 IN ANOTHER MINOR FIRMING
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. That puts it down -0.1% over the past five working days. It is up +5.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +3.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. Contact, Stride Property, Mercury, and Investore Property the main gainers as Gentrack, Ryman, Serko, and Mainfreight are the main decliners.
BIG LAYOFF
The Warehouse Group has cut 270 head office staff roles, with the struggling retailer saying its current cost base 'is not sustainable for a value retailer'.
BIG LOSS, AGAIN
Synlait said it is heading for a first-half loss of about $80 mln. They say they are 'very disappointed' with this latest six-month result and the impact it has had on the pace of the company's financial turnaround.
WHERE THE INFLATION PAIN IS BEING FELT
Australia released some living cost indexes today, following the overall 3.8% December CPI. They say living costs for 'employees' rose just +2.2% in the year to January, but for 'aged pensioners' it was up +4.2%.
A BETTER EXPANSION
Unlike the official January services PMI which was more negative, the private S&P Global version is more positive. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose in January to a better expansion, from December’s six-month low and better than market expectations. It's the strongest expansion in their services sector since October, driven by stronger growth in new orders, and a fresh increase in foreign sales.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.50% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.88% after the RBA decision and its highest since 2011. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.25 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.59%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -2 bps at 4.60%. The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp from this time yesterday, now at 4.27%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
But the local equity market is now down -0.1% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is has risen, up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.7% in its opening trade after yesterday's big gain. Hong Kong is unchanged today so far and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is also up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade down -0.8%.
OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is dup +US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just on US$64/bbl while the international Brent price is just over US$68/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There have been many more trades today on the secondary market and the price firmed +$1.75 to $37.75/NZU and back near its early January levels. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RECOVERY GROWS
In early Asian trade, gold has bounced back further, up +US$207/oz from this time yesterday and now at US$5043/oz. Silver up +US$5, now at US$88/oz.
NZD FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps against the USD at just on 60.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 64 and up +20 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN SLIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$76,315 and down -3.1%% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been very high however at +/- 4.0%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
31 Comments
Typically, the daily volitivity that gold currently has signals a bigger move to come, up or down, place your bets!!!
Gold and silver now trading like memecoins. You couldn't make this proverbial up.
Citi has lifted its 0–3 month silver price target to 150 USD/oz, up from 100 USD/oz previously, reflecting how fast spot has outrun their earlier forecasts.
https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/citi-raises-silver-price-target-to-15…
You couldn't make this proverbial up.
Not in a story that ends very well.
Term Deposit rates......
I'm disgruntled at the dramatic drop in interest rates offered by second tier finance companies.
Prior to the deposits guarantee they paid a significant premium over first tier institutions reflecting the higher risk elements of being a second tier institution.
These institutions continue to be second tier and will still be charging a risk premium in the money they lend.
So has the profit margin grown them as they pay lower for deposits but charge the same for lending?
Since the govt guarantee up to $100k is now in place. Why should there be a premium for risk?
Not sure what they charge in interest. I don't have a need for a mortgage so don't really follow that part of the market.
I have, in part, followed IT Guy's comment and started buying bonds. They do pay better than current TDs and can be sold, if need be, in a relatively straight forward fashion.
Just be careful re duration risk, short dated you will not lose face value if rates change and you hold till the term ends, but long dated you either gain or lose face value if you sell if rates have moved. hence the term - bond trading.
Thank you.
I have noticed on DX markets, bonds that have a mixed equity/bond and even a perpetual bond. I've steered clear of those.
Also a spread of companies. Banks, property company, electrical generator gives differing rates too.
All institutions covered by the Depositor Compensation Scheme have to pay a fee for the coverage. The amount they pay depends (proportionately) on the risk the Scheme is taking on to provide that cover. Institutions with sub-investment grade credit ratings, or no credit ratings, pay a higher rate. These costs are 'paid' either by the shareholders (?!) or in the way they price their offers.
Regular readers will recall that we warned this would be the effect. For risk-free deposits, expect rates closer to risk-free (ie Kiwi Bonds) returns. Over time they will coalesce, you would think. Deposit guarantees world wide have done that. The only factor that will give you a higher rate now is the institution's motivation to attract more deposit funding, after considering their costs of getting money in via that channel. The fee costs are new.
I also want to thank you. You made a comment a while ago about locking in TD rates for longer periods as OCR was dropping.
I did 4 TDs. Last one matures 1Q 27 ND is at 6.2%.
I have learnt a lot from the articles. I don't read every comment and to tend to ignore some commenters. But I am happy to support, though I suspect our politics may not perfectly align:-)
Interesting h'hold demogs emerging in Aussie:
Australia’s fastest-growing household type is now the single-person household. Living alone has surged from 8% in 1946 to nearly 28% today, reshaping demand for smaller, well-located homes. With one in three households soon to be solo, this structural shift - echoed across the world - is transforming Australia’s housing market.
It's the story of most cities. People aren't hooking up and are self soothing with the internet
And widows I guess
Self soothing????
Self flagellating?
How do we sell and make coin from these Hand Solo dwellers?
A new and powerful residential class......
Onlyfans
I imagine a Gecko could make a bit of coin as a niche content generator
There is some crazy shit on that platform
No face, no worries XD
Just sitting there getting nothing but short lived, customized bursts of dopamine.
But at least they are paying rent to the landlord on their 1bdrm shitbox, so the Ponzi is safe.
Rent to the landlord
Money for food
Various Internet subscriptions, power services, telephony
And have just enough to scrape buy.
and a bit to punt on crypto = happy hands solo
Just go full Matrix, vat of liquid oxygen, hoses for goo to enter and leave your body, and you can live inside a VR world.
nah better to stay in the messy sticky world and trade skills between AI bots...
best of both worlds, but its starting to get very questionable re the world the bots are living in....
lately if using AI you realize its smarter then you are at lots of things and you are bringing domain knowledge to the table, not general intelligence.
I have flipped on AI last few weeks I am now a convinced its a total game changer the new models are so good and by helping them with MCP they are almost expert level.
There will be a few great investments in this space.
My accounts package wants to use AI to reconcile company bank transactions instead of manually coding them.
Failed on the first one.
Which was the bill for the accounts package.....
I can see a buncha applications and opportunities. For what I do I can see it radically eliminating manual paperwork; health and safety, contracts, warranties, producer statements etc.
Picking a winner from all the various model contorting firms is a crapshoot. It seems like OpenAI or Google have the mass market sewn up, but then I can't see how they get the return on investment.
I am very glad I left IT quite a while back and doubled down on business functions that still need doing by hand.
find the small guys that will enable open source AI agents to work from your home
The Warehouse offshoring jobs to Bangalore.
Has anyone actually seen a change like this go well?
People seem to enjoy buying all the things people make in places like that for cheap. So if head office goes also and it keeps prices low, everyone's a winner.
We will make better, higher paying jobs to replace the lost ones, I'm sure. Or just after pay it.
Heard on the radio that big Aussie consulting firms offshoring EAs via Philippines.
So offshoring plus AI are going to help the economy... doubt it and tax revenues will not rise, how successful has NZ been getting revenue out of meta of google?
I wonder if they'll have a better attitude than most EAs? Just saying
Probably and less possibility of issues at the Xmas party.
Any one who lives in the corporate world understands the ruthless efficiency with which you are cut from the corporate family (that promotes well being and inclusion), if it saves $100 a day.
This move out of recession is going to have to face the ruthless cost cutting that head office requires.
They will be given 3 months notice so they can help train their replacements.
KPMG Aussie is outsourcing about three-quarters of its EA roles, i.e., around 200 out of 260 EAs, mainly to the Philippines.
For KPMG this restructuring appears to be part of a wider effort to stabilise margins after Australian revenue dropped about 4% to $2.13 billion in 2024–25 and advisory income fell nearly 20% to $749 million, even though total consulting work only slid about 12% to roughly $1 billion.
https://theaussiecorporate.com/blogs/pickandscrollnews/kpmg-shifts-assi…
On radio they mentioned that on Aussie Seek EA job roles dropped 18% last year.
you will be able to add a whole host of roles by next year due to ai
Western capitalism slowly eroding the tax base that they rely on for govt to justify spending money with them. It's akin to the ouroboros, the snake eating it's own tail.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.