Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. But there might be some coming. See this. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Xceda rates some rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TRENDING MORE 'POSITIVE'
Fewer New Zealand citizens left long-term in January. In fact, this was the least in three years. On the other hand, immigration is picking up. That means there we had a net gain of 4830 in the month, the most for a January since 2023, and for the year to January, a net +23,200 people arrived long-term.
ALMOST BACK 'NORMAL'
Overseas visitor arrivals were 385,400 in January 2026, an increase of +15,200 from January 2025. The biggest changes were in arrivals from Australia (up +10,700), the UK (up +3,700), the USA (up +2,600), Germany (up +1,900), China (down -10,800) and Korea (down -2,000). January arrivals were 97% of pre-pandemic equivalent levels, so this is a very good result because the timing of Chinese New Year actually weakened growth in arrivals from this cohort.
A GOOD EXPANSION
The February factory PMI came in little-changed from January with a good expansion, one that has extended from December. And it is built on good new order levels. This is a curious survey, given the down-beat StatsNZ manufacuring data for Q4-2025 released yesterday. But it seems the BNZ/BusinessNZ PMI is more likely to reflect the actual situation and the outlier is the official one,
DE-REGISTRATION RISK
With less than a month to go before a crucial deadline, Charities Services is warning that more than 1,900 charities are at risk of de-registration if they fail to reregister under the new Incorporated Societies Act (or take other action) by 5 April 2026 (Easter Sunday).
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
CALM ... BEFORE IMPACT?
There may be turmoil in the financial world, but so far in the livestock markets things remain relatrively calm. Market sentiment remains largely unchanged. Prime Range Meats say demand for mutton continues to be strong in China and Taiwan. In contrast, lamb prices in Europe and the UK remain under pressure due to current market conditions. Beef demand in the United States remains firm, which continues to underpin global prices. But "we are also beginning to see costs increase as higher fuel prices start to filter through the supply chain."
NZX50 DECLINES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today. It is heading for a -2.6% fall over the past five working days, and is down -0.3% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.6% so far today.
CARD FRAUD VICTIM PROFILES
Australia released some interesting data on financial fraud impacts and who is affected. This data was for the 2024/25 year. They say 10.4% of adults (2.3 mln people) were the target of card fraud and likely to be victims in the year. That rose to 13.4% for those in the 45-54 age group, and 13.0% in the 55-64 age group. Those younger than 24 had a low incidence (5.4%). It looks like most people got reimbursed by the banks, so few suffered any loss. Scam victimisation was much lower, but the same age cohorts got caught.
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SWAP RATES HOLD HIGH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be marginally firmer today (especially the 2 year) as the general tone remains negative. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from this time yesterday at 4.94%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +3 bps at 2.21% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.68%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +9 bps at 4.66%. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.26%.
EQUITIES RETREAT FURTHER
The local equity market has fallen -0.3% in Friday trade, and so far. The ASX200 is holding, up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is also down -0.9% and Shanghai is down -0.1%. Singapore is down -0.2%. Wall Street in its Thursday trade for the S&P500 was down -1.5%.
OIL STAYS ELEVATED
American oil prices have risen sharply with the WTI benchmark up another +US$2, now at just over US$96/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$100.50/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz. Some there are on fire.
CARBON PRICE UNCHANGED
There have been a few larger trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price is unchanged at $44/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SOFTER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen again from this time yesterday, down another -US$54/oz and now back at US$5110/oz. Silver is down -50 USc to US$85/oz.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just under 58.5 USc and down -1% from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.4 and down -40 bps from where we were this time yesterday. That is also a -1% weekly retreat.
BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,639 and up +2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest however, at +/- 1.9%.
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19 Comments
50 cars queued all through my New World carpark last night looking to buy petrol. Idling and using gas to buy gas. They all looked miserable.
Nice to drive home and plug in and not have to deal with that.
I have a petrol car but I only use a tank a month. People should try doing things locally or walking, cycling, busing, etc - its much better than sitting in a car all day.
It is funny how people's first response to a crisis is to try and find something to buy, as if that will insulate them from the future.
We don't really know what's going to happen, this is going to play out for years.
Maybe actually conserve some money in case maybe your income gets reduced or some things you need get scarce. Then once you have a better idea you can go full Mad Max
Conserving fiat currency at a time where there’s a risk of high inflation again also may not he optimal. For example people who made forward purchasing decisions 2020-2021 for durables are away laughing now given the increase in prices due to inflation since, where as otherwise they would have lost a quarter of their purchasing power otherwise and paid more today.
Reminds me of visiting the supermarket the night before the first Covid lockdown. Was a mixture of fear and excitement. When a shelf started to empty others would dash to it to get the last remaining... Didn't matter! It was nearly gone!!
The bloody toilet paper! I suspect some people haven't needed to buy any since...
The issue with the toilet paper was the size. If you sell twice as many tins of beans in a couple hrs, it's not very obvious. 12 packs of bog rolls are fairly volumetric, so sell a few more quickly, the shelves look bare. Post some pics of bare shelves online, all of a sudden you get battles to the death in the TP roll aisle.
"Overseas visitor arrivals were 385,400 in January 2026, an increase of +15,200",
"immigration is picking up. That means there we had a net gain of 4830 in the month"
Oh joy! Back to being swamped in yet more humanity. Of course this works so well everywhere else.
We could use some humanity, place is a bit empty at the mo. Unless you're at a petrol station. Then there's a lot of humanity.
If you're looking for humanity, you won't find the concept among heaving masses of humanity.
You do, depending on their values and cultural norms.
Humanity itself implies some sort of collective.
Makes for interesting reading
Ex-Aotearoa based conman / money launderer for the pig butchering / online scam industry in Asia Benjamin Mauerberger is on the run from the UAE. The story doesn't get more wild as his two super yachts have headed off in direct directions with transponders switched off.
But as Mauerberger flees, his shadowy connection to Sam Altman and his dodgy iris-scanning business goes unreported by the media. A Thai firm controlled by Mauerberger became Altman's partner in Thailand. Mauerberger was able to get former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, his political patron, on stage with Altman's cofounder at a big event in Bangkok. Thailand's SEC later raided the company's iris-scanning centers across the country.
There's no evidence Altman knew about Mauerberger's scam-center billions, but the firm appears to have been lured by the South African money launderer's political connections -- and failed the most basic due diligence checks.
If Mauerberger had naturalized as an Aotearoan, the story might have made Granny.
https://whalehunting.projectbrazen.com/the-great-yacht-swap-mauerberger…
I'm guessing Sam didn't think of asking OpenAI what it thought of ol' Benny-boi.
Loving this saga BTW
A 79‑year‑old Chinese Binance VIP account holder has been identified by internal Binance investigators as a key conduit in moving over 400 million dollars’ worth of crypto to wallets later linked to Iran‑related sanctioned entities, including networks tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
It appears that Iranian entities have received around 1.7 billion dollars in total from multiple Binance accounts and counterparties, not just from the Chinese account holder.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inside-binance-accounts-internal-investi…
Diary of a CEO
The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
2,105,886 views Mar 12, 2026 New Episodes
White House war advisor ROBERT PAPE reveals why Trump is trapped in a war with Iran, the risk of a nuclear breakout, the role of China in the conflict, and how the US is losing control of the Middle East. Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. He explains: ▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war ▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure ▪️The hidden reality of Iran's 400kg enriched uranium stockpile ▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient ▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran 00:00 Intro 01:58 What’s Really Happening In The World Right Now 04:04 I’ve Worked With The White House For The Last 20 Years 08:59 What Really Happened When The U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites 12:00 Does Removing A Leader Actually End A Regime - Or Backfire? 16:08 Iran’s New Supreme Leader May Be Even More Hostile To The U.S. 26:07 The Escalation Scenario Few People Are Talking About 41:15 Ads 43:14 What The Next U.S.–Iran War Could Actually Look Like 47:34 What Happens If The U.S. Hadn’t Bombed Iran - Would War Be Worse? 52:09 Does Trump Really Influence Netanyahu’s Decisions? 54:05 Are Trump’s Global Decisions Driven By Legacy? 01:04:33 Could The World Be Heading Toward Another Genocide? 01:05:54 What Happens After “Stage 3”? 01:07:17 Ads 01:12:14 China’s Quiet Strategy For Global Dominance 01:13:18 Is America’s Superpower Era Ending And Is China Next? 01:16:32 Why China May Benefit From A U.S. Conflict With Iran 01:22:54 The Real Long-Term Prize The U.S. Is Fighting For
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