Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union, NBS and Bank of China all raised fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Those same three institutions raised TD rates today, and were joined by Welcome. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT TUMBLES
The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey shows a big fall in consumer confidence, and a rise in inflation expectations.
FHBs ACTIVE BUT BORROW LESS
First home buyers likely accounted for more than a third of property purchases in February, according to updated RBNZ data, but high levels of low equity mortgage lending could foreshadow future problems. There were more transactions but the average loan amount was lower, even as high LVR loans swelled.
A NATIONAL PLAN
The Government released details of its fuel phase escalation, management and conservation plans today, setting the current phase as 'watchful'. Their plan for Phase 1 (the current least restrictive), Phase 2, Phase 3, and Phase 4 (the most restrictive) just looks like the Labour pandemic levels in reverse (Level 4, the least restrictive, Level 3, Lever 2, and Level 1, the most restrictive). It will be interesting to watch sector pleas for 'special treatment', especially those that had to 'suffer' equal treatment during the pandemic (and didn't like that). This is when campaign donations can get their payback. Expect to hear about "do no harm [to me]" calls from a very wide range of ginger and lobby groups.
COMCOM EYES INTERCHANGE FEE LIMITS FOR COMMERCIAL CREDIT CARDS
The Commerce Commission says it's embarking on a formal regulatory process to set interchange fee limits for Mastercard and Visa commercial credit card products, noting interchange fees are a key component of the costs businesses face to accept Mastercard and Visa debit and credit card payments. The Commission says, over coming weeks, it'll confirm when its draft decision will be published.
NO INFLATION FROM CAR INSURANCE
Two of the five car insurers we monitor raised premiums last week for the vehicles we track (the most popular new car, a Toyota RAV4, and the most popular used import, a Toyota Aqua). But virtually none of these thirty online quotes are coming in higher than this time last year. In Christchurch, overall costs are about -8% lower. In Wellington between -4% and -8% lower. But in Auckland there are no savings for the new car option, although -7% savings for the used option.
NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.6% so far today. It is heading for a -0.7% weekly drop, and down -1.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +4.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.8% so far today. Serko, Hallensteins, a2 Milk and EBOS lead the gainers, as Gentrack, Property for Industry, Freightways and NZX suffer broad declines.
MULTI-YEAR HIGHS
It is probably worth noting that Fonterra share prices (FCG and FSF) are both at multi-year highs.
A DECADE MORE LIFE THAN CURRENT GRANDPARENTS
StatsNZ released it life cohort table updates today. That shows boys born in the late 1870s (the earliest data available) could expect to live to around 51 years on average, and girls to around 55 years. Boys born in the early 1960s (who are now reaching 65 years old) could expect to live to around 79 years on average, and girls to around 83 years. Boys born in the early 2020s (latest data available) can expect to live to around 89 years on average, and girls to around 92 years.
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MORE SPECIALIST FUNDING OPTIONS
Specialist British rural lender Oxbury is now established here, and ready to compete for working capital funding lines for operating farms. This is a 50/50 JV with Marcus Kight's Stockco out of Havelock North, with aspirations to rise to a book matching their UK operations of "several billion dollars".
BIG DISPARITIES
Profits at China’s industrial firms rose +15.2% in February from a year ago and the best start to the calendar year since 2022. A lot of this was driven by private enterprises (+37.2%), although listed companies saw only weak growth, and some foreign companies suffered retreats. SOE profits rose a modest +5.3%.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to have turned back up further today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.53% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 5.07%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.82%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +5 bps at 2.32% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, unchanged from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +1 bps at 4.73%. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.40%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has fallen -0.5% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% and Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore is up +0.3%. Wall Street had a tough Thursday with the S&P500 ending down -1.7%.
OIL BACK UP FURTHER
American oil prices have risen +US$2 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$93/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 at US$106/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen back another -US$102/oz and now back at US$4430/oz. Silver is down -US$3 at just under US$69/oz.
NZD DIPS AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.6 and down a net -20 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$69,040 and down -3.1% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.
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12 Comments
NZD falling while oil price rises.
RBNZ can raise rates to strengthen dollar and reduce the impact of the imported inflation coming our way.
I’m fixed for another 18 months so sounds good to me
Does the sand not irritate your eyes?
Which coast are we talking?
So NZD slipping as swaps are ticking back up... and rates are quietly heading the wrong way again, which probably matters more than prices moving a percent or two either way.
Rates are moving the way they are because of future price expectations which are rising because we have stimulatory monetary policy settings during an oil shock (and when inflation was already outside the mandated band before said oil price shock began).
I didn't realise that there was a 'right way' and a 'wrong way' for rates to head. Swap rates, if that is what you were referring to, just react to (and try to predict) what is evolving in the economy.
Ok “wrong way” probably the wrong wording.
They may reflect expectations, but they’re still heading higher again, which is what people actually deal with day-to-day, not the theory behind it.
'Boys born in the early 2020s (latest data available) can expect to live to around 89 years on average, and girls to around 92 years.'
On what shonky basis?
We are a product of low-entropy surplus energy. The increase in longevity is in lockstep with the surplus
Or was.
On the basis on which that projection was mad, I'm 40 metres tall (extrapolating my height from 0-2 yrs. It's nonsense math.
More importantly why do we just accept this gender inequality? What are the government doing to address it?
Can confirm the beer is still cold and good.
Was sharing a couple with the local gas station owner this arvo. Not easy times for him. Every tanker costs more than the one before.
Still, lucky to be here rather being bombed to smithereens.
Up the Wahs.
I can also confirm
Cheers!
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