Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank raised its 18 month and 2 year fixed rates today, by +6 and +10 bps respectively. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
General Finance raised most of their TD rates for terms 6 months to 3 years. Mutual Credit Finance has added a new 9 month TD offer. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SERIOUSLY LAGGING INFLATION
March consumer spending transacted through the Worldline payments network was slightly higher than a year ago, but a combination of the effects of war and weather made for a tough end to the month for many merchants. Their Core Retail transactions reached just under $4.0 bln, up +0.5% on March 2025. The dominant "Auckland/Northland" region was down -0.6%, Wellington down -1.0%, Canterbury up +1.3%, and Otago up +2.2%. Other notable changes include Waikato (up +2.6%, Southland (+2.2%) and Bay of Plenty (-1.0%). None of the Worldline data is inflation-adjusted, so remember Q4-2025 inflation was 3.1% and we will get Q1-2026 in the week after next.
A MARCH BUMP IN THE ROAD
Meanwhile, ANZ's Truckometer recorded a -2.4% fall in March from February, to be up +3.6% from March a year ago. This data gives a good steer on demand up to six months ahead. Meanwhile their Heavy Traffic index rose +0.4% in the month for an annual +2.3% gain. This metric gives a good read on real-time production.
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NO IMPACT ON RATINGS
S&P says the RBNZ 2025 capital review changes are unlikely to affect their ratings on the four major banks. They say they expect those banks’ capitalisation to remain strong and consistent with their current ratings assessments.
NZX50 FADES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.2% so far today. Enthusiasm is leaking away as the session develops. It is heading for a +2.8% weekly rise, but is down -2.2% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +12.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is unchanged so far today. Infratil, Briscoes, Vista, and Summerset lead the gainers as Tourism Holdings, Tower, Skellerup, and Gentrack are the main decliners.
$1.3 BLN SEEKING $450 MLN
There was solid demand for today's NZGB bond tenders with 97 bids for the two maturities, attracting $1.29 bln for the $450 mln on offer. Yields were little-changed. There will be another $100 mln LGFA tender tomorrow as well.
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FEWER IN TRAINING
Fewer Aussies are in work-related training or formal study. Participation fell to 34% of people aged 15-74 in 2024-25, compared to 39% of the same age range four years earlier, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
SWAP RATES TURN UP
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be noticeably higher today, maybe by as much as +10 bps. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.52% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.95%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +4 bps at 2.40% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.74%, back up +10 bps from this this time yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -9 bps at 4.63%. The UST 10yr yield is up +6 bps at 4.30%.
EQUITIES GET SECOND THOUGHTS
The local equity market has risen a minor +0.2% in Thursday trade so far, a fade from earlier. The ASX200 is little-changed in afternoon trade after being lower earlier. Tokyo has opened on Thursday down -0.6% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is -0.3% lower and Shanghai has opened down -0.6%. Singapore is down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +25% (all before the realisation nothing is improved in the Persian Gulf).
OIL PRICES FALL SHARPLY
American oil prices have fallen -US$19 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$95.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US16 at US$95/bbl. One day after Trump's claimed 'ceasefire', US petrol pump prices - rose, and now up +39% from six weeks ago. And now Iran has shut the barely-opened Strait of Hormuz. There have been military strikes hitting energy infrastructure by both sides of the conflict.
CARBON MARKET QUIET
The volume of trading transactions has been picking up on the secondary market, and the price has risen with it to $43/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RETREATS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4715/oz, down -US$88 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$2.50 USc at just on US$73.50/oz.
NZD RISES AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +70 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.9 and up +40 bps from yesterday. Most of this can be attributed to the "hawkish" RBNZ views yesterday.
BITCOIN FLAT
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,080 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.
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9 Comments
Clear positive spending trend in the dairying regions. Still not enough for a net positive after inflation adjustment though.
Yep, a chunk of that cash dairy Dairy Inc received from hocking off the family silver has already disappeared down the drain of depreciating digits.
One day after Trump's claimed 'ceasefire', US petrol pump prices - rose, and now up +39% from six weeks ago.
Not the sort of Failing Upwards that DJT has experienced over his life.
Bloomie picks up on young Japanese investing more than ever. And the incidence of home ownership among people in their 20s is at its highest ever. Unlike their Anglosphere counterparts (who are drowning in avo toast and iPhones), their behavior is quite different. The tax-free incentives help.
That was the contention of an opposition lawmaker, who recently asked Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama about those referred to as being stuck in “NISA poverty.” NISA, the Nippon Individual Savings Account, is a tax-free investing scheme recently expanded to exempt savings of up to 3.6 million yen ($22,500) a year from the country’s 20% capital gains tax. “NISA poverty” refers to young people who are supposedly squirreling away so much in order to maximize their gains that they’re failing to buy anything else.
Key Aspects of Debt for Young Japanese (20s):
Rising Debt Levels: Household debt in this age group has risen faster than their income, with many relying on loans to cover daily expenses.
Major Causes: The top reasons for debt among young adults include covering basic living expenses (rent, food, utilities), followed by educational expenses and, in some cases, excessive spending on "gacha" (microtransaction) mobile games.
"Gacha" Addiction: A 2025 report indicated that about 19% of 20-year-olds in Japan have struggled to cover basic living expenses due to overspending on mobile game microtransactions
Common Reasons for Borrowing:
A survey found that nearly 47% of young people aged 18 and older have borrowed money from financial institutions, friends, or relatives, with the following top reasons:
Low Income/Living Expenses: 77.6% of borrowers used funds for basic necessities like rent and food.
Rising Prices: Inflation has forced many young individuals to cut back on basic necessities.
Lack of Family Support: A significant portion of young borrowers (23.7%) reported being unable to rely on parents, often citing that their families are on welfare or are single-parent households.
Doubt it:
"Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade up +25%"
According to FT, Iran will be accepting tolls to the Strait of Hormuz in the form of rat poison and other cryptos (likely stablecoins).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-solana-surge-as-iran-looks-to-ch…
Will they take Trump meme coins?
Asking on behalf of a Western economy.
I doubt it. My bet is that it would be ratty, stablecoins, gold-backed stablecoins, possibly Ethereum.
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