Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today - so far. And so far, no other bank has hiked to follow ANZ. Update: Westpac has matched ANZ but only for the 12 and 18 month fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. Update. Westpac has raised its 18 month an 2 year TD rates, matching ANZ for these tersm. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
HEAVY PRICE PRESSURE IN MARCH, AS EXPECTED
Petrol prices jumped +19% while diesel prices increased +43% from February to March, according to Statistics New Zealand's latest Selected Price Indexes figures.
NO PRICE PRESSURE IN MARCH, NOT EXPECTED
Meanwhile, food prices were up +3.4% in March from a year ago, less than the February +4.5% rise. That is now a 13 month low. The reason is they eased -0.6% in March from February on lower fruit and vegetable prices. Grocery food prices also dipped, by -0.8% in the month and were only +1.2% higher from a year ago. With all the talk about "rising inflation" in March, these food price changes may surprise some readers.
RENTS STALL
The same StatsNZ data shows a general stalling in residential rents in March. New rents are down -0.4% from a year ago. Rents for existing tenancies were up +0.7%.
REARRANGING HOUSEHOLD SPENDING
Separately, StatsNZ reported retail sales activity as revealed in electronic card payment transactions. That was up only +2.5% overall, with fuel taking a larger bite, offset by falls in some key areas like apparel and hospitality.
A NEW HYDRO PLANT GETS APPROVAL
A small new hydro power project (23MW) has been approved for construction, south of Hokitika, bringing to a close a strung-out 23 year application timeline.
NZX50 MODESTLY LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.4% so far today. It is heading for a -1.2% weekly dip. It is down -2.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is up a net +7.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.3% so far today. Oceania, Vista, Skellerup and Kiwi Property rose but Fletchers, Gentrack, AirNZ and Mercury retreated
REVERSING FOREIGN INVESTMENT
Aussie media is reporting that Channel Infrastructure is likely to be buying the local Mobil (ExxonMobil) terminals business.
DOWNWARD PRESSURE
Livestock processors are trimming schedule prices. Not only is lower and less transparent Alliance/Down pricing easing pressures, these buyer are also saying their markets are feeling cost-of-living pressures. That is true from the UK, the US and locally, they say. China is steady for mutton, but lamb prices remain lower than alternatives in other markets so is not favoured. You can see most of the prices for most of the majors from the links in our Rural section.
SWAP RATES STEEPEN
Wholesale swap rates are likely steepened today with short rates dipping and long rates rising. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.55% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 5.00%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.78%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.41% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Thursday rate up +1 bp at 4.65%. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps at 4.32%.
EQUITIES RISE
The local equity market has fallen -0.5% in Friday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Friday down -1.0% in its opening trade. Hong Kong down -1.3% and Shanghai has opened down -0.2%. Singapore has also dipped -0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade up +0.3% for the S&P500 in an up-and-down session.
OIL PRICES RISE
American oil prices have risen +US$1.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now at US$93/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$3 at just on US$98/bbl.
CARBON MARKET STAYS ACTIVE
There have been more reasonable-sized trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held up in response, now up at $47/NZU and its highest since early March. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4784/oz, down -US$32 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just on US$79/oz.
NZD EASES TO END THE WEEK
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.8 USc although almost all of this shift happened last night. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 50 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.2 and down -30 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$74,719 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just over +/- 1.5%.
Daily exchange rates
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61 Comments
Fertilizer prices rise +87% since end of 2025 and now above USD720 per tonne.
When the cost of urea explodes, the price food naturally follows. And Aotaroa and Aussie import the lot.
https://www.agrolatam.com/crops/fertilizer-prices-surge-in-u-s-as-input…
Twenty three years on the drawing board and now a small hydro generator is to be constructed on the West Coast of the South Island. So that process started during Helen Clark’s government which assumedly it wouldn’t have if it had not been considered viable. Estimating three years worth of construction, then what now is the cost of that compared to twenty years ago? Just wondering.
If you speak to the kayakers and trampers, the cost is the same - one beautiful, virtually unspoiled, gorge.
Sadly as an ex grade 4/5 kayaker who has on multiple occasions paid for helicopter lifts into flooded rivers.
I also agree that there is a loss to NZ if we dam these rivers.
We could also fund on roof solar, more wind farms etc etc
More dams means more transmissions lines etc, vs distributed power allowing less grid and possibly better local car charging AND less issues if grid goes out.
I am conflicted on this issue. we must move forward.
Its time we nationalized hydro gen, its a giant battery we are not using well for NZ power generation but rather for profit generation
If you could go back in time would you ditch all our current hydro?
OMG no best decisions EVER to build the big projects, most great kayak routes are down steep gorges that are only small hydro possibilities. its just now the big ones are all dammed they are looking at small projects the one mentioned is minor 12,000 homes
its a 23 MW project
New Zealand has a total installed hydroelectric generation capacity of over 5,000 MW, which accounts for approximately half of the country's total electricity generation capacity. As of December 2023, the total installed hydro capacity was approximately 5,501 MW
so its an increase of 0.4181% .... its not going to move the dial
if we want to change things lets really changes things
deep geothermal, big solar farms wind big time
solar on your own roof FFS
https://tradedepot.co.nz/bifacial-solar-panel-625w-mono-n-type/?gad_sou…
a 625w solar panel for $179
Yes the low hanging fruit has been picked.
I’d still like these issues (any form of pollution / destruction / etc) to be priced rather than rubber stamped. Burning fossil fuel is essentially free to everyone’s detriment, but annoying some kayakers (or frogs) gets the NO stamp. I’d rather let money talk, where the effects are priced in somehow, including C02 etc.
Can't do it.
Because money is NOT indexed to anything. So-called market forces are just a collection of forward bets by a collection of (very) underinformed lemmings. We've known effects cannot be 'priced in' since well before the pathetic 'Valuing Nature' conference (Vic Uni circa 2013). Leaving nature alone will ALWAYS be outbid - which is why our species has bidden itself into overshoot via depletion/degradation.
The proof is already there.
Sigh.
I’m not sure that’s true. For example I could mine my backyard for some fragments of something, but it’s not commercially viable so I don’t.
Money ain’t perfect, but it will make people think about the cost vs benefits, assuming they do pay the full costs (which currently they don’t tend to).
Your alternative dream seems to be that we all come together as one and all decide to respect Mother Nature no matter how shit our lives become. Might be a nice ideal, but it will never happen. And anyone who proposes something better than now but not 100% perfect may as well not bother.
Modern fiat currencies are anchored by the strength of the economy, the tax base, central bank policy, and the credibility of institutions.
Countries already “leave nature alone” with national parks, conservation areas, marine reserves, fishing quotas, indigenous land rights, protected catchments, and similar things.
Fiat currencies are anchored in the ability to deliver.
Yes, delivering what I mentioned in my first sentence above.
that will be why the USD has lost about 98% of its value compared with gold since they closed the gold window?
And yet the USD is still the world’s reserve currency, the dominant settlement currency, a currency backed by the deepest bond market on Earth, and the benchmark for global trade. Gold is actually a volatile commodity.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/?timeframe=120M
what part of the gold price - in USD - are you not seeing in this chart, holding USD Fiat has lost you 74% compared with gold over the last 10, and before you start with gold being a no yield asset you can safely lend it for % return
who cares it is the reserve currency, its the best shitty fiat... wow
holding fiat as been a shit trade forever, 98% since gold window, 74% in last 10 years
So the entire global monetary system is invalid because one volatile commodity went up? You guys crack me up.
Currencies are not investments. They are units of account, mediums of exchange. Something you are using every day.
anchored by the strength of the economy, the tax base, central bank policy, and the credibility of institutions.
In no comment does ITG suggest the global monetary system is “invalid”. He’s pointing out that the fiat anchors you’ve highlighted here are failing. The global reserve currency requires constant inflation to remain solvent. Debt levels make further debasement inevitable.
US bond demand is still high in volume, but it’s velocity and direction are changing as the world diversifies into the multipolar era. US bonds are no longer being scooped up by foreign central banks, instead they're being consumed by domestic US institutions and the Federal Reserve. This signals the USD has effectively become a snake eating itself to deal with the collapse in demand and trust from the international market.
We weren't really discussing specifically USD originally, rather fiat currency in general. So, even if USD declines in influence others will take its place.
You literally stated in the comment above ITG with:
And yet the USD is still the world’s reserve currency, the dominant settlement currency, a currency backed by the deepest bond market on Earth and the benchmark for global trade.
Yeah whatever, IT Guy is just spouting gold bug talking points. A return to a gold standard is impossible for any advanced economy. IT Guy's interjection was irrelevant anyway as we weren't discussing fiat currency as an investment vehicle. The confusion may be with the word "deliver". Fiat is not delivering a good return as an investment, but why should it? You use fiat as a unit to buy investments. It 'delivers' for investment transactions, also for buying things like petrol and food, it's really handy.
Not necessarily.....all/or some of the factors you list are not required.
Which ones aren't required?
Central bank policy for one, nor a tax base and the only institution of credibility required is the currency itself. There are historical examples without one or others of those that operated an effective fiat currency....a functioning economy is required though that may be a case of chicken or egg.
Well every fiat monetary system has those today. I guess that means the ones that didn't aren't very enduring, eh? I notice you give no examples.
It's like you're saying central banks don’t matter, tax bases don’t matter, institutions don’t matter… yet somehow every durable fiat system in history, and every system today, has relied on those things.
Recency bias being displayed....and the statement was they are not necessary, not that they are not of use.
NZ established its central bank less than a century ago...tax is not required to fund anything.... institutions can be counterproductive.
And durable is simply a question of time frame....what timeframe would you care to suggest?
The point is currency (fiat or otherwise) needs to provide what those that use it need or it will not be accepted, and an alternative will be adopted with or without those features you describe....then there is the question of who it needs to work for.
Recent? China developed a fiat currency a thousand years ago.
New Zealand just formalised things in 1934 when they established a central bank. Before that, NZ still issued currency, regulated banks, enforced law, and collected taxes.
There have been a myriad of fiat currencies through history but that dosnt mean any of them are of use today....some lasted for longer than others. The fact that currency was issued in NZ (by private banks and businesses) prior to the formation of the RBNZ demonstrates that a central bank is not a requirement.
Argentina is good contemporary example of the point being made...the general population have largely abandoned using the peso despite the fact the peso is the official currency of the country
No.
I'd argue they are anchored by the faith people have in it. For example, how would our currency fair if a great selloff came and nobody wished to trade in it? We would lose access to imports of many key goods we rely on, and the standard of living would drop in turn. Talent would leave for better shores to add to this from a flailing currency.
Fiat is rubbish the FX market is just one fiat crap paper printing mess traded against another crap paper printing mess
its how your positioned in the race to nothing.
Stop being emotional. Fiat currencies function because governments can tax, regulate, and maintain credible institutions. The FX market prices those fundamentals every day.
Stop being illogical.
Fiat issuance is only valid while people think the proxy can be future-exchanged for stuff; resources, usually processed via the application of energy.
At this point, that posit - the combined global betting-slips held, vis-a-vis the remaining planet - can only be reconciled by rampant inflation, default or jubilee.
That's not a 'fundamental' - that's a combined average blind (not accounting of residual resource stocks, no accounting for remaining sink capacities) forward bet. Fundamental chundamental.
Any credit trader at a serious bank owns gold and miners.... I wonder why?
Is that supposed to be a "mic drop".?
Well, here's mine, LOL:
Traders also own equities, bonds, options, real estate, even cash...
What serious investor bets the entire monetary system on a single, volatile, commodity?
Yet another PDK word‑salad of doom metaphors and not an argument in sight. None of it actually has anything to do with the mechanics of how fiat currencies work.
...nek minnit
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/environment/592560/groups-call-on-fast-track…
"...enough to power the equivalent of about 12,000 homes."
"The hundreds of recreational users who visit the area every year have been ignored," "...one of the country's last untouched pristine wild river gorges."
Approx a third of NZ is Conservation land, administered by DoC
Raise Manapouri, problem solved
Raise Manapouri? How - by taking even more water out of the Waiau river, which currently has around only 5% of its natural water flow returned to it?
Hundreds a year? Can’t be that exciting
not many have the skills to use this
but they are human and we often do not do these builds for the sake of small green frogs or EVEN snails
as I said, back in the day I may have considered kayaking this, also as an Eng Elect I understand the value of this....
conflicted, we need power but I seriously think the answer is distributed small power gen.... FFS can we mandate a national power buy back rate for home solar to incentavise installs.... nationalise hydro generaters to allow eff use of water...
enough to want to make you vote for NZ First
The NO stamp comes out way too often
hear them squeal as we remove that
hippy and labour be the biggest stuck pigs squealing
ACT love to put the reddest tape around new housing in Epsom, and housing has been one of our biggest issues. They are all guilty.
yes they are its like Animal Farm
they are all shit, but some are shitter then others.
Why so much profanity in every comment?
Estimating three years worth of construction, then what now is the cost of that compared to twenty years ago?
Good question. Singapore was smart in getting cracking in investing in infrastructure soon after independence. Similar stories for Korea, Japan, China. East Asia gets it. The Anglosphere is a basket case when it comes to infrastructure planning and provision on the whole.
We struggle to maintain existing infrastructure vs building new
WGTN water.... rail lines , roading , interisland ferries, school buildings, court buildings, hospital buildings, defense infrastructure (better if woke rules stopped them driving onto reefs) ....the list goes on....
Could have all been sorted instead of that $20 a week tax cut.
China was smart by building a LOT of dams upstream. They then moved on to mass coal importation and use and are now looking to oil given it's greater energy density and uitility. They also manufacture practically everything they need, paid for by NZ consumers, and businesses who took manufacturing there, and any other country who has poured money into their economy over the last 30 or so years.
Two Eurozone countries have issued sovereign debt in Chinese yuan since the start of the Iran war. Slovenia on the 30th of March [https://gov.si/en/news/2026-03-30-slovenia-expands-global-funding-footprint-with-successful-inaugural-renminbi-denominated-panda-bond-offering] and now Portugal.
Portugal has been an active sovereign issuer in yuan, and it has just taken a new step by selling an offshore renminbi (“dim sum”) bond in April 2026, after having previously issued onshore “panda” bonds in 2019.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/portugal-sells-offsh…
Trumps America are arrogantly assuming we’ll all do what they want. What they don’t realise is that China is now a safer and saner bet than the US.
China is now? The USA has always been inherently dangerous at street level. The odds on being in wrong place at the wrong time in normal civilian areas and times, have always been quite evil. There was an old saying in the pioneering days and later, that folk that had lost it had gone west, meaning the wild west. Well actually the wild west has been steadily moving eastwards.
But were China any better? Since they’ve worked out that capitalism is good (they are very capitalist these days), they’ve also worked out that stuffing up their trade via stupid conflicts is a bad idea (in most cases)
I remember when I studied this at uni it seemed believable. If all the countries become capitalist (like the US) and start trading with each other then they'll be no incentive for War.
Ironically Trump is a bit of a commie. Using tariffs to create unnecessary jobs is on kinda a spectrum with communism.
He's a bit of a mercantilist too.
More so akin to a well-sauced drunkard loudly shouting that another drink will help society.
You might be right. Personally I am not going to risk my fragile soul to establish which is worst. Down here at the south east end of the line suits my timid nature admirably.
Hard to know isn’t it. We’ve done pretty well with the yanks on our side, if we tell them to jump and choose the Chinese, we’re a pretty easy target. Not a particularly prosperous one I guess.
Big variations in the price of diesel. 55c/l in our area on gaspy, but even bigger if you are a card holder and are on a bulk price.
95 is often the same, some places charge an arm and a leg. Pays to have a look, 50c x 50l is $25
Yes, I've thought about that disparity between truck stop prices and at retail forecourts.
Is it a mechanism to repress fuel hoarding? To ensure the truck fleet continues to have access to fuel? (I recall an item in the early days of the shock, in Wairoa, where truck stops had run dry and a full unit load carrying lambs had to hunt out a forecourt it could sneak under to fill up and get to destination). The transport industry, I expect, have contracts with specific fuel companies (cards) that will be on weekly, adjusted fixed price, irrespective of displayed bowser price.
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