Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
THE WORLDCLEAR FILES
We have launched the first part of a years-long investigation, the inside story of the tiny New Zealand firm that transferred millions for high-risk clients globally. This was a joint investigation with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and it's partners. We also had valuable support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative with this public interest journalism project.
REDUCING THE BURDEN
The Government has signaled that, with cross-party support, it will be easing up on AML requirements, including around laundering money through the real estate system.
CREDITORS CLAIM $589 MLN FROM SEASCAPE'S DEVELOPER
The first receiver's report for Shundi Customs Ltd, developer of the Seascape apartment tower, shows creditors owed $588.8m, with almost $171.2m claimed by China Construction Bank as first ranking secured creditor.
YET TO HIT
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in April was slightly lower than in March, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average +2.0% increase in what suppliers charged compared with a year earlier. “These slower cost increases still largely pre-date rising costs stemming from conflict in the Middle East, with only some limited increases for produce showing through so far,” said Infometrics Brad Olsen. This delay is impressive, given the Persian Gulf crisis and commodity cost increases started at the very end of February, 72 days ago.
CRITICAL FUEL USERS
Fuel limits: Government outlines who 'critical fuel users' would be if oil crisis worsens.
MORE SIGNALS SOON
We are going to get many more indicators on how this inflation will hit over the next five days. First will be Thursday's Selected Price monitoring by StatsNZ released on Friday, followed by the April PMI survey also on Friday. No-one is expecting these reports to be showing anything like the +2.0% impact that Foodstuffs claims.
ABANDONED
The ginger group of lawyer, the Environmental Law Initiative (ELI) filed a claim in judicial review challenging a 2024 decision by the EPA that there was no significant new information about glyphosate that would warrant grounds for a reassessment of the weedkiller. In October 2025, the High Court ruled that the EPA had acted lawfully when making the decision about glyphosate. The judgment recognised the EPA’s role as New Zealand’s authority on hazardous substances and confirmed it has wide discretion when deciding whether to reassess a chemical. ELI had appealed the High Court decision to the Court of Appeal but on 5 May abandoned the appeal.
DO THE QUIZ
Our quiz is updated this week and ready to challenge you, and see how you do compared with the many hundreds of other readers doing it too.
NZX50 FALLS BACK
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.2% so far today but it is heading for a weekly rise of +0.4%. It is down -3.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +3.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a very sharp -2.4% so far today. Infratil, Fletcher, AirNZ and Kathmandu lead Monday's gains as Ryman, SkyCity casino, Summerset and Auckland Airport decline.
BONDS ARE KING
Secondary market enthusiasm for trading in NZGBs turned up a notch last week. Almost $94 bln was traded in those five days. That's not all bonds, only NZGBs. It is a market that dwarfs the equity market. Last week featured the largest trading level on 2026. only bested by the November 23 to December 12 period in 2025 (when the average weekly trade topped $104 bln).
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation is seems little-changed.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 32.0 | 23.5 | 31.8 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 15 | 19.1 | 21.8 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.0 | 26.1 | 34.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 7 | 10.4 | 19.1 | 20.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.9 | 27.1 | 31.4 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 9 | 11.7 | 22.0 | 27.3 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
CHINA NOT IMMUNE
China's inflation is rising, noticeably now. Today they said their April CPI came in up +1.2% from a year ago, with fuel costs up +4.6% on that year-ago basis. But in April from March, fuel costs rose +3.5% in just one month. Things are hotter for producer costs which were up +3.5% year-on-year, and up +2.1% month-on-month. These are big sifts because it has been negative since October 2022.
CAUGHT IN IRAN'S WEB
Iran seems to be toying with the US, and the US doesn't seem to know what to do to extract itself from the festering mess of its own making. WTI and Brent crude jumped over +3% after Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal aimed at ending the 10-week conflict, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Renewed attacks across the Middle East over the weekend also threatened to undermine a fragile ceasefire. There is zero sign that the high costs of this conflict are about to fade any time soon. Inflation and stagnation are here to stay.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.63% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is also little-changed at 1.76%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.49% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.71%, up +1 bp from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +7 bps at 4.69%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this morning, still at 4.39%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is down -0.1% in Monday day trade so far. But the ASX200 is down -0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4% at its open. Hong Kong is also down -0.4% but Shanghai is up +0.7% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street is looking like it will open up +0.1% tomorrow in its Monday trade, according to current futures activity
US OIL PRICES RISE, BRENT STABLE (SO FAR)
American oil prices have jumped on the Trump tantrum with the WTI benchmark up +US$4 at just on US$99.50/bbl, but the international Brent price is still just over US$101/bbl.
CARBON PRICE DIPS AGAIN
There have been a few modest to good trades today on the secondary market, and the price has slipped -$2 to $52/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4679/oz, down -US$35 from this this time yesterday. Silver is now just under US$80.50oz and unchanged from this morning.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this morning against the USD, now just on 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 50.6 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.7 and down -20 bps from this morning's open.
BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$81,177 and down a mere -0.3% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.
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30 Comments
'There is zero sign that the high costs of this conflict are about to fade any time soon. Inflation and stagnation are here to stay.'
Let's put that in concrete (real) terms:
We are unlikely to ever see 2025 energy flow-rates, again.
Triage strategies will include de-valuing proxy, vis-a-vis energy. Entropy-parrying will be deferred - some of it indefinitely. Discretionary acquisition will reduce - possibly self-reinforcingly.
And Luxon will bleatpeat 'growth growth growth growth... until the populace gets disillusioned enough to look for someone with a plan.
No fan of Luxon myself but who in this fair nation of ours, relative to your concerns, objectives and protests, is any different, has been any different or will be any different in the role of our Prime Minister? Just another brick in the wall to undoubtedly be replaced by just another brick in the wall or are you mooting an overthrow, any time soon, of the democratic process and performances that have brought us to where we all are. That is a cynical pie with a reality dressing to have for dinner.
Swarbrick has the intelligence - she would have to be 30 points clear of Luxon IQ-wise.
The Top lady might get there too.
Hipkins actually knows - but won't tell you that (there are a few others in that boat, mostly Left).
But the big issue - and my think tank was discussing this today - is that the current System is incapable of adapting not only as fast as is needed, but as far as is needed. Indeed, as we see from the repeat bleatings hereabouts, most voters have made their forward bets based on the status-quo, not on a different future. They therefore choose not to know.
Nicely argued. How’s that starboard tack going? One imagines, if one’s left side, or leg is longer than the right, is well suited to a starboard tack.
Swarbrick has the intelligence - she would have to be 30 points clear of Luxon IQ-wise.
WTF Power? How do you come to that conclusion? Because she can say "evidence based" repeatedly with authority (while not being able to illustrate that evidence)?
No disrespect to Swarbrick, but she lacks basic understanding of scientific falsification.
As is the case with many, Swarbrick demonstrates a complete inability to discern the trees from the wood.
There are many such - some nearby...
Agreed.
Luxon (believes he's) sorted (for his lifetime)
How do you rate his judgement?
Gotta have something there in the first place, to be able to rate it.
By rights, entering politics after any sort of recognised career, should add value by dint of experience, accomplishment and intelligence. For example such as Ralph Hanan or Martyn Finlay, fine legal minds, accepted as such by all sides of the house. Not happening now though is it. For instance, in that category, for quite a while neither major party, had a justice minister or spokesperson with even a law degree.
Filled up at gull yesterday for $3.09 / l Not even close to the $4 a litre many were predicting. At that kind of price I don’t think it’s that expensive compared to historical averages. Maybe the inflationary effects won’t be as bad as first thought.
Energy underwrites EVERYTHING.
As any half-way competent engineer ought to know.
If Jimbo is an engineer, and you know it (I'm unsure as I don't live on here), that's a pretty crap comment.
That’s one of his nicer comments, he hasn’t called me parasitic yet today.
Correct. Energy prices don’t seem to have gone as high as expected, and because energy underwrites EVERYTHING, we may not get as much inflation as expected.
Anyone note the unmentioned variable?
Actually, variables plural?
Enlighten us
Petrol is really cheap because there's lots of it. Current world events have proven how resilient the system is.
Give it time Jimbo, give it time. $4.20 this time next month (For 91 at BP Orewa)
Energy flow rates are determined by technology, infrastructure and price, not by metaphors about entropy. Rather than continue the doom narrative please describe what is limiting the flow.
We are unlikely to ever see 2025 energy flow-rates, again.
You don’t know that.
"unlikely"
Fair point.
I tend to choose my words carefully - and have the advantage of not having a vested-interest. Maybe worth thinking about, is that.
And I spent last night learning; having downloaded the book: Tad Patzek Show Notes PDF
having already watched the interview. That's in my last 24 hours and is reasonably typical. Do you research stuff other than self-reinforcing material?
Our Finite World | Exploring how oil limits affect the economy
By Hideaway: Scaling Laws in Nature and Human Civilization – un-Denial
Try it. Spend a few hours learning. I've always though it an insult to oneself not to.
Brent is sitting @ $105.7 (up $4.50 or 4.4%) as at 4.22 pm. I noticed the usual website I use to watch the oil & gas prices (Trading Economics) wasn't updating today, still stuck on the $101 close of Friday (May 8). Maybe wherever you are pulling your numbers from is not updating correctly either.
CNBC seems reliable
Amelia Hamer is a Liberal blue-blood in Victoria vying for political power. Hamer previously lost in Kooyong in the federal election, but has put her hand up for another blue-ribbon seat in November’s state poll. She has a gig as an analyst at Ord Minnett and she seems keen to style herself as financial saviour for the state.
AFR uncovered her stock recommendations. Many tech-related stocks, which largely have dire performance. I noticed Gentrack is one of those stocks. If you remember, Gentrack CEO, Gary Miles, received a very large incentive-driven stock payout that set a new Aotearoa record for CEO remuneration.
The stock is down 70% in the past 12 months. Since Hamer recommended Gentrack in April, it's down approx 50%.
Hamer was also an adviser to ex-financial services minister Jane Hume, and worked at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, DST Global and Airwallex (cough).
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/amelia-hamer-s-track-record-at-ord-minn…
For those "cash basis people" that need to know:
"The limits have now been lifted to $200,000 for income and $2 million for financial arrangements like bank accounts and savings. "
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/personal-finance/594866/why-fewer-people-are…
According to Reuters, domestic car sales in China were down 21.6% yoy year in April, even as car exports surged 80.2%. Everyone knows that domestic demand remains incredibly sluggish in China.
Much of the consumer-voucher programs of earlier years were directed at car purchases. This meant that Chinese households who had planned to buy cars anyway just accelerated their purchases.
In the 1990s, Japan also experimented with consumer vouchers as a way of forcing up weak domestic consumption, but they quickly abandoned them.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-april-car-…
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