Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ICBC has raised its 18 month, 2 yr and 3 yr fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Sharesies has upped its on-call saver by +30 bps, now at 2.30%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'MERGER' (OR TAKEOVER?)
Heartland Bank has proposed a take-over of TSB, but partly funded by investment by TSB's community foundation shareholder. There are many shareholder and regulatory approvals required, so it is unlikely to proceed before the end of 2026 if all those agreements are forthcoming. If it happens, that will scale the new bank up to just a bit smaller than Rabobank. Fitch has placed Heartland on 'ratings watch positive' after the announcement.
MOVING TO THE SHADOWS INSIDE THE FMA
The FMA is a step closer to taking over the regulatory responsibility for the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act 2003 (CCCFA) from the Commerce Commission. Touted as a "a more streamlined regulatory environment for the financial services sector" but is likely to get tied up in an industry-focused bureaucracy rather than a consumer-focused advocate. A retrograde step, but one the financial services industry has been pushing for. (We hope this view is wrong, but future events/action will be the judge of that.)
'TOO SOON'
StatsNZ is saying the Q1-2026 GDP result due on Wednesday, June 18, 2026 is unlikely to reflect very much of the sharp cost increases producers are experiencing in their input costs. That is also reflected in the RBNZ's Friday update of its GDP Nowcast. For June however, the impact is large - and negative.
NZX50 MOVES LOWER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.5% so far today, with a weekly rise of +1.6%. It is down -2.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% from Friday. Heartland, Gentrack, Kathmandu, and Genesis lead Monday gains while Vista Group, Chorus, Serko and Infratil retreat.
NO LONGER SPLIT
FAMNZ, the Aussie mortgage broker trade association, has given up in New Zealand. That means that FANZ is the primary industry group representing mortgage brokers now.
FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: At this time the situation seems little-changed in volume terms.
| Stock, days cover | Number of ships | Petrol | Diesel | Jet fuel |
| In-country | 34.4 | 24.8 | 32.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 15.3 | 19.4 | 22.0 |
| Total NZ stock, May 27, 2026 | 13 | 58.1 | 44.2 | 57.8 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 32.4 | 21.6 | 29.7 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 3 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 10.4 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 10 | 20.0 | 19.5 | 13.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 20, 2026 | 13 | 53.1 | 49.1 | 53.7 |
| previously reported | ||||
| In-country | 34.0 | 21.7 | 29.5 | |
| On water within EEZ (up to 2 days away) | 5 | 2.1 | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| On water outside EEZ (up to 3 weeks away) | 8 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
| Total NZ stock, May 17, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 55.0 |
| previously reported | ||||
| Total NZ stock, May 13, 2026 | 12 | 56.2 | 46.3 | 47.7 |
| Total NZ stock, May 10, 2026 | 12 | 59.0 | 45.2 | 50.2 |
| Total NZ stock, May 6, 2026 | 11 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 54.1 |
| Total NZ stock, May 3, 2026 | 10 | 49.3 | 47.7 | 55.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 29, 2026 | 12 | 52.6 | 52.7 | 58.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 26, 2026 | 10 | 52.8 | 46.1 | 49.1 |
| Total NZ stock, April 22, 2026 | 10 | 51.8 | 41.3 | 45.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 19, 2026 | 11 | 51.2 | 41.6 | 47.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 15, 2026 | 13 | 54.0 | 44.8 | 51.4 |
| Total NZ stock, April 12, 2026 | 12 | 56.3 | 45.4 | 47.0 |
| Total NZ stock, April 8, 2026 | 14 | 59.7 | 49.1 | 50.7 |
| Total NZ stock, April 5, 2026 | 14 | 62.6 | 51.7 | 53.5 |
| Total NZ stock, April 1, 2026 | 16 | 61.9 | 51.5 | 50.1 |
| Total NZ stock, March 29, 2026 | 16 | 58.7 | 52.2 | 46.2 |
| Total NZ stock, March 25, 2026 | 15 | 59.3 | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Total NZ stock, March 22, 2026 | 48.7 | 46.4 | 53.4 | |
| SOURCE: https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/fuel-stocks-update | ||||
MINIMUM WAGE RISE
In Australia, the Fair Work Commission has approved a 4.75% minimum wage increase for about 3 mln workers. But those at the very bottom will get an even higher increase of about 6.0%. Their National Minimum Wage applies only to persons in the national industrial relations system who are not covered by a 'modern' awards or an enterprise agreement. This will take their minimum to AU$26.44/hr for a 38 hr week. More here.
STILL VOLATILE
Although they are elevated and more than +10% higher than year-ago levels, Australian building consents fell in April from March, down -1.0%. Consents for houses are up +7.5% year-on-year and are the stable part of the market. Apartment and unit housing consents took a dive and maintain the very volatile patterns we have seen since September 2024. NSW is where they are most volatile.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates will probably show a small rise today in a steepening curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.62% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.90%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.71%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -3 bps at 2.65% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.59%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate down -10 bps at 4.52%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps at 4.45%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
The local equity market is down -0.4% from Friday when it last traded. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.6% at its open. Hong Kong is up +1.4% but Shanghai is little-changed at its open today. Singapore is up +0.8%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up +0.3%.
OIL PRICES FIRM
American oil prices are up +US$2 with the WTI benchmark now just under US$92/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and up +US$1.50.
CARBON PRICE SOFT
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has fallen to $51/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD SLIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower at US$4479/oz, down -US$30 from this time yesterday. Silver is now just over US$75/oz and down -US$1.
NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.8 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN FALLS HARD
The bitcoin price is now at US$70,567 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday and a seven week low. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%. Basically, crypto funds are suffering net outflows.
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16 Comments
OIL PRICES DROP
American oil prices are up +US$2NZD MUCH FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps
Sorry DC, but if you want readers to take Interest seriously, this needs to be tidied up and not happen quite regularly.
AI?
Maybe, but DC is the boss, and he is therefore responsible for who writes what.
I have experience with an AI override - and the deal that went with it (not to override the AI override).
The results can sometimes defy commonsense.
Good to see TSB being acquired.
For so long they've been in a position to become NZ's main challenger bank, and they've missed every time, delivering low profits and limited growth, despite good customer outcomes.
It will be interesting to see what a (clearly more aggressive) new management group will be able to make of it.
Now do list MP's.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/unelected-people-to-be-banned-fr…
Nothing wrong with the list as provided by MMP if the purpose of it was respected by introducing MPs of worthwhile experience, acumen, calibre and integrity to name just a few essentials. However all parties have brought in identities who are the dead opposite, not fit for purpose, and the quality and standards of parliament has suffered and diminished resultantly
Plenty wrong with it. Why should political leader have the right to appoint people to Parliament whose only loyalty/accountability is to their benefactor, not the demos.
Why should they? Because 33 years ago the people of New Zealand voted for exactly that. But undoubtedly, they did not expect the political parties to bastardise the system.
And did so for good reason
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The issue is that those co-opted to council committees are not democratically elected.
Arguably, those party’s list MPs are democratically elected when we exercise our party vote for the party’s nominated list of candidates.
Funny enough, it works AGAINST the Act-types as much as the reverse.
Lots of 'business' ring-ins on committees/boards.
Actually, we need to bring the boards back into the public arena too.
The irony of complaining about something not being democratic and then slipping this in at a late stage of the bills passing so no one can have as say on it.
Democracy in action.
If you put up a list of drongos and nobody votes for them. They don't become MPs.
You do have power to elect or not elect.
I don't see the problem
I will add to my DGM points tally today. Rocket Lab’s stock dumped last night by 15% mainly because of a sharp sentiment reversal in the “space trade.” A recent Blue Origin launch-pad explosion has spooked the punters about the inherent risk profile of launch and satellite businesses, putting broad pressure on space-related stocks.
Still kicking myself for not going deep on the stock in 2024/25.
TOP - 6% in the latest poll. This could get interesting.
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