A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no majors follow ANZ up, top-ups rise, 8.3% rates rise is a three year low, truckometer loses momentum, fuel full, swaps stable, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. In fact, apart from two smaller challenger banks which we have noted over the past few days, no other banks have followed ANZ up. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

THE HOUSE AS AN ATM
Fewer people are taking out mortgages to buy property, but more people are topping up existing mortgages. Those mortgage top ups accounted for nearly half of new mortgage approvals in April.

EMBEDDED HIGH
Local authority data was released today for the March 2026 quarter and that showed rates and regulatory income rose +8.4% from the same quarter a year ago. Still, this is the least since June 2023.

'A MARKED LOSS OF MOMENTUM'
The May update of ANZ's truckometer tracking is out, revealing "a marked loss of momentum". Their Light Traffic Index fell -0.2% in May to be up just +0.4% from a year ago. Recall, this was up +2.4% in April. The Heavy Traffic Index fell -1.3% in the month, still up +1.9% from a year ago, but back from the +2.5% year-on-year rise in April. More here.

GIVING UP SOME GAINS
The overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats.

A POLICY RELEASE
Finally Labour is releasing some election policy. They propose to cap public transport fares at $20 per week in our biggest cities, at $10 elsewhere.

GROWTH SHIFTS, FAVOURS LOCALS
Last-mile parcel contractor NZ Post has released an update of 2025 e-commence activity. They say online spending was up +10% above 2024, driven by more online transactions, higher basket sizes, and fundamental channel, demographic and behavioural shifts. And they note that local/Kiwi retailers were the big winners - with local spending growing at more than twice the rate of spending with international vendors..

NZX50 SOFTER
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is has dipped -0.2% so far today, but with a weekly rise now of +0.5%. It is down -1.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.9%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% so far today. Kathmandu, Sky TV, Tourism Holdings and SkyCity casino rise while Vulcan Steel, Gentrack, Oceania and EBOS retreat.

FUEL STOCKS UPDATE
This is the latest MBIE update of current the fuel stock status: This latest update reveals near the best levels since this tracking started.

JUDGED
The High Court has agreed the $6.7 mln fine worked out by ASB and the RBNZ for its previously reported AML breaches. Here is the judgment. The fine is a rounding error compared to ASB's $1.3 bln annual after tax profit. More here.

JAPAN'S PPI RISES SHARPLY AGAIN
Data out in Japan today shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone.

LOW & STABLE
China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis.

HIGH & UNSTABLE
But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018.

TRUMP'S WAR UPDATE
Tit-for-tat is playing out 'normally', with the usual and tired claim and counter claim that "he started it". After Israel restarted bombing Beirut, Iran launched missiles at the UAE and Kuwait. Then the US struck Iran. Then Iran shot down a US helicopter. Then the US responded. Now Iran has hit US bases in Jordan and Bahrain. All within less than a week. All the while Trump claims a negotiated end is in sight. He's dreaming, even undermining himself (when Netanyahu isn't playing him).

SWAP RATES EASE BACK AGAIN
After yesterday's rise, wholesale swap rates will probably be a bit softer again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.67% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is also unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.69% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.55%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -4 bps at 4.56%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.54%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The local equity market is now down -0.1% from yesterday's levels. The ASX200 is up +0.2%. Tokyo is has opened down -1.1%. Hong Kong is also down -1.1% and Shanghai is down -0.7% at its open today. Singapore is down -1.1%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%.

OIL PRICES FALL BACK FURTHER
American oil prices are down -US$1.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just under US$89/bbl, and the international Brent price is now just under US$92.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today on the secondary market, and the price has held at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS HARD
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$159/oz from yesterday at this time at US$4179/oz. Silver is down -US$4.50 at just under US$63.50/oz.

NZD STILL FIRMISH
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 61.9 and up +10 bps from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN EASES FURTHER
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,296 and down -2.4% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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