By Chris Trotter*
If Jacinda Ardern thought last week was bad, the week ahead promises to be even worse. Sixty community cases of Covid-19 reported on Sunday, certainly made for a grim beginning.
Making everything worse, is the extraordinary tangle into which the Government has got itself. Gone are the days of simple, but inspired, messaging: “Go hard. Go early.” “Stay home. Stay safe.” “Stamp out the virus.” In “To pee or not to pee: A full timeline of the confusing level three bathroom rule”, The Spinoff’s Madeleine Chapman makes excruciating fun of the Government’s messaging disasters.
People hating a government is one thing. What some people hate, other people are almost certain to love. But people laughing derisively at a government, that is something else entirely. Politically, it’s very hard to come back from derisive laughter.
But what other option, apart from derisive laughter, is left for New Zealanders? Except, perhaps, angry tears? And how did it get to this point? From OECD poster-child, to international laughing stock? What was it that caused this Government’s stunning reversal-of-fortune?
The easy answer is, of course, The Delta Variant. Jacinda Ardern’s government was well-armed against the Covid-19 virus of 2020. New Zealand had beaten it back in spectacular fashion, suffering only a tiny fraction of the casualties experienced in other countries. Sadly, the Elimination Strategy, this government’s very own Maginot Line, could not stop the Panzer divisions of Delta. The strategy of the first Covid war, proved inadequate to the second.
Also inadequate, was the administrative rigidity of New Zealand’s state apparatus. This country’s people are famous for their “No. 8 Wire”, can-do improvisation, and for their willingness to give anything a decent try – and to hell with the hierarchies! Indeed, we are told it is precisely this attitude that makes Kiwis so highly-prized by foreign employers. But, if such attitudes were ever acceptable to New Zealand’s public servants, they are pure Kryptonite to the current generation of bureaucratic mandarins.
Highly centralised, intolerant of independent thought, fearful of error (and, therefore, of experimentation) the state bureaucracy very early-on convinced the Prime Minister and her closest confidants that they were going to have to carry much of the performative burden on their own shoulders. The key decision-making circle was, accordingly, drawn very tight around the Prime Minister. The bureaucratic hierarchy most relied upon being neither the Ministry of Health nor MBIE, but the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
That this tight circle of decision-making got so much right in the first phase of the Pandemic encouraged an unfortunate surfeit of self-confidence among the Prime Minister’s principal advisers. Spectacular success isn’t always a blessing. “We got this!” can be a dangerous motto.
With the benefit of hindsight, it is very clear that, if the bureaucracy could not be relied upon to act with speed and imagination, then the Labour leadership’s most sensible response was not to try and do it all themselves, but to appeal over the heads of the public servants to the public itself. As we have seen, DHBs, businesses, iwi authorities, non-profits, unions, and community groups can come to the aid of a government with impressive amounts of energy and flexibility.
Nowhere was this more evident than in the tortuous roll-out of the official vaccination effort. Cumbersome, time-consuming, inefficient and ineffective, the official process generated enormous public frustration. If the People themselves had not taken the task in hand, New Zealand’s vaccination rates would be even worse than they are. Only when anxious communities swung into action alongside their GPs and other local health providers did the numbers getting the jab rise to something approaching an acceptable level. Vaccination busses with names like “Shot, Bro” and “Jabba the Hutt” exemplified the tremendous energy and creativity obtainable from the nation’s flax-roots.
Also with hindsight, it is possible to recognise how unwise it was of the Labour Government to allow the impression to grow that the “We” in “We got this!” did not include the business community. In a capitalist society, it is never a good idea to let the Devil find work for idle businesspersons’ hands. Those who own the world, perhaps not surprisingly, tend to think they should also play a significant part in running it.
Seeking to establish some sort of timetable for “re-opening New Zealand to the world” was by no means an unreasonable boon for the business community to ask of the Government. Especially if the business in question was a small one, and its owner was watching it die. No matter how attentive the Prime Minister and her colleagues may have been to some business leaders behind the scenes, the front-of-house optics were not encouraging. To many businesspeople, the spectacle of “Queen Jacinda” and “Saint Ashley” standing behind their “powerful podiums of truth” had a decidedly anti-business aspect. What did politicians and public servants know about running a profitable business?
Experienced and knowledgeable business leaders also understood that Delta was different. The swift elimination of Covid-19, leading to a swift return to business as usual, made lockdowns irksome, but bearable – especially with the government wage subsidy. If lockdowns proved unequal to the challenge of the Delta variant, however, only near-universal vaccination would suffice. If the Government wasn’t prepared to make “opening up” and mass immunisation amount to the same thing, then “the big end of town” would. John Key’s op-ed intervention made good the threat
These, then, were the components of the “perfect storm” which engulfed the Prime Minister and her government: first and foremost, there was the Delta variant itself; then, an arrogant, secretive, unimaginative and intolerably sluggish state bureaucracy; not forgetting the “We got this!” hubris of the PM’s tight decision-making circle; leading to the government’s tardiness in encouraging a “bottom up” roll-out of the Pfizer vaccine; and finally to its failure to prevent the business community, and its compliant news media, operating as a subversive “fifth column” in the Covid war.
Are the Prime Minister’s formidable communication skills equal to the task of getting her government’s anti-Covid campaign back on track? Is her health bureaucracy nimble enough to encircle the rampaging Panzer divisions of the Delta variant? Is there enough heart still left in her “Team of Five Million” for them to reassure their captain: “Don’t worry, Jacinda, we got this!” Is the business community willing to go head-to-head with the Team of Five Million if they rally to the PM’s side? Is the criminal underworld (making a late appearance in this drama) sufficiently patriotic to stay safe at home? Is the daily total of Covid community cases about to go exponential?
A lot of questions, demanding a lot of answers. And not a lot of time to provide them. Still, as Harold Wilson wryly observed, and Jacinda Ardern is only too aware: “A week is a long time in politics.”
*Chris Trotter has been writing and commenting professionally about New Zealand politics for more than 30 years. He writes a weekly column for interest.co.nz. His work may also be found at http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com.
95 Comments
Is there enough heart still left in her “Team of Five Million” for them to reassure their captain: “Don’t worry, Jacinda, we got this!”
100% NO NO NO in Auckland
Anyone noticed that there have only been 2 deaths out of over 1500 cases ? is this really a real threat or has the fear installed by Jacinta made Auckland a sombie town.
TIME TO MOVE ON 80% VAX RATE LET'S GO
I agree there is a fair level of lockdown fatigue now and people are sick of it. I think we've all had a gutsful of lockdowns by now...
I don't agree though that 2 deaths out of 1,500 cases means she'd or in actuality the government made a mistake. If you have had only 2 deaths out of 1,500, then wouldn't it be fair to say if there hadn't been any lockdowns, there'd be likely MORE deaths? Who among us can guarantee there'd be the same or less deaths if there'd been no lockdowns?
Again, I do agree that getting the vaccination rate higher (or as high as possible is the prevention for more lockdowns.
... there are statistics which show that if vaccinated folks catch C19 they're far less likely to transmit the virus to others , than unvaccinated people are ...
Vaccination grestly slows the R , but does not totally stop it ... it buys time for the hospitals to cope with more patients ...
This is why the vaccination efforts should be focussed on those likely to be hospitalised in the first place. This one size fits all approach is nonsense.
There is no good reason to hold out on opening up until 90% of healthy 12-40s are vaccinated. Those aren't the people that will be filling hospital wards.
I think the point is the social contract for lockdowns, extreme monetary policy etc was formed on the basis of around 3% mortality. Remember how many deaths we were told to expect from covid going into the first lockdown? On that basis I think majority of people accepted some lockdown as the lesser of two evils. Now it is clear the risk is in general much lower, its much easier to identify those at the most risk and advise them of ways they can reduce their risks, there are vaccines and hopefully soon other medical options to improve outcomes. With what we know now, how many people would have agreed to that course of action.
A sample of 1500 (but probably greater given many would not have been tested) which was probably materially more unvaccinated and unhealthy than the NZ average and 2 deaths of people, (aged 91 and 57) with unknown co-morbidities, I think is a pretty compelling indication of what to expect i.e. hardly the 1918 flu. We have to remember we all die of something at sometime, it is just a case of when, 35,000 odd people die in NZ each year. If we had deaths amongst 10 years olds a completely different story but that isn't what the data tells us, its the old and those with co-morbidities.
Of course there would be more deaths. Just like the 90 other people that die on a daily basis from everything else.
Time to get a grip. Covid is not going away and the vaccine is not 100% effective.
Unles you want to spend the next 3 years in and out of lockdown. Time to accept a higher death toll. When we have say 1000 deaths annually, that's when you start to worry.
Anything more is an over reaction.
With the worryingly high number of unlinked cases, I don't expect to see relaxation of the regulations at 4.00pm today.
Given that non-vaccinated adults have a lesser chance of survival if/when they're infected with Covid, it makes sense to prioritise vaccinated people for public hospital beds (and ventilators).
I say that in the name of efficiency. When push comes to shove, our public hospital resources are limited. Precious hospital beds ought to be used where they will deliver the best outcomes - in terms of lives saved (or deaths avoided).
Adults who don't get themselves vaccinated and thereby put themselves - and everyone else - at risk can reap the consequences.
Sorry if the above offends - but this is hardly a time to have warm-fuzzies with people who refuse to vaccinate.
TTP
Sounds to me life's to risky for you to get out of bed in the morning TTP. The only people that are getting upset about the anti-vaxxers are fatties with underlying health problems, you know the ones that also blame others for the reason they are fat. I'm not getting the vax, going to take my chances as I have worked pretty hard to stay in shape.
I fancy my chances of not crashing every time I go for a drive, but I still wear a seat belt. I do this not because of fear, but because I'm capable of risk assessment. For the same reason, I have had the vaccine. I'm healthy, below average weight, good fitness, mid 30s, but why take the risk of a potentially unpleasant illness when I can easily reduce my risk to completely negligible?
We'd a good innings delaying Covid-19, now it's time to move forwards. Lockdowns never really solved any long term problem, just delayed it. The serious scientific community ruled out elimination in February when nature published their evaluation of the Indian Delta variant and suggested endemic wad the path forwards.
Obviously the vaccine offers us a softer glide slope from pandemic to endemic.
Yes, and it's been good that we have delayed the impacts, but time to move on.
Hopefully we aren't too far away from getting some of those new treatments into NZ, that help reduce hospitalisations and deaths. That's a big next step.
Has anyone heard any questions on that from the media, in terms of plans to order these treatments? At least the Nats have put it out there.
We are also fortunate that we are moving into summer, in terms of transmission.
Are these Doctors treatments worth pursuing? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vN30emwcNS4
good article . agree with how slow and unable the MOH and DHB are to try and embrace new things, so many times JC has stood on the podium and said things out loud that the MOH and DHB would not doas if to try to shame them into doing it ie all frontline staff vaccinated, mask wearing, taking vaccinations to the people, taking testing to supermarkets.
so many things that could have been done at lot lot quicker if not for bureaucracy
First order of business for the Government is to de-platform the modellers and scientists who are looking increasingly hysterical and out of step with the general public and policymakers.
The average person can see they're now simply unhinged - statements about "freaking out", "being in the poo", other weird metaphors and analogies. The solution of course is more Level 4 lockdowns to get us back on track. Hardly the stuff of of dignified and calm analysis that we are supposed to expect from science.
Correctly at the outset 18months or so ago, the government identified NZ’s health services as being inadequate to accommodate a significant influx of covid admissions. What seems to have now percolated to the top is a fear that even a very high level of vaccination might still leave sufficient numbers liable to do this. This government certainly had reason to try and accelerate hospital capacity but the poor abilities that have been exposed cannot be entirely laid at their door. For instance two health ministers in the previous government, one of the flashy tie salesman ilk, the other with an unsavoury but telling nickname accorded by the medical professionals, had nine years opportunity, and did little improvement.
All this hpye or focus on Jacinda's communications degree and "formidable communications skills" is like saying she's a one-trick pony who got elected into office because of her media skills and not her public service experience...
That's making her the same as Donald Trump who got elected by being a spin doctor, certainly not based on his non-existant civil service record.
"...like saying she's a one-trick pony who got elected into office because of her media skills and not her public service experience..." She didn't originally get elected to office in 2017, Winston appointed her & her media skills were exactly why Little stepped back to let her in, he having none himself. As for 2020, her overwhelming re-election success was a rational response to that years successful Covid elimination by all NZdrs in the team of 5M; unfortunately the Govt & Public Service jobsworths at MBIE & MoH then sat on their self congratulating hands for months organising vaccination supply/rollout & ignoring other countries experience of Delta.
No-one should ever get elected for their "public service experience": the real world funds the provision of the public service, not the other way around.
We should start planning for more casualties appropriately. I was reading this morning that a mother was told she would have to wait 10 hours, outside in a queue, for what turned out to be her baby's brain bleed to be attended to. This is just appalling. The government has wasted billions of dollars and this is what we get?
Meanwhile the navy is out poking the dragon in the South China Sea. Priorities eh? Is the pandemic serious or not?
We should have special facilities setup exclusively for COVID patients. Prepare for many cases. Utilize the armed forces and their facilities. We're not going to be fighting any wars. Use military personnel as ambulance drivers, medical first responders etc.
Inform people properly as to what they should do when they get the virus. Everyone should keep trying to not catch it of course. Stay fit, lose weight, get vitamin D, sunlight, drink fluid and so on. Provide medicines and advice for people caring for those infected at home.
All of this should have been prepared for ages ago.
At a time of unprecedented crisis, a pandemic, there have been some blatantly inexcusable contradictions committed by this government. For instance fanfaring and then squandering $51mil on a cycle bridge that no one but the PM’s ego/PR machine wanted but at the same time imposing a wage freeze on nurses and associates. Recall much mirth, me included, in the early days re photos of those emergency facilities in China, row upon row of beds regimented at the ready. Not so funny now because NZ in nigh on two years of warning, would scarcely have any new beds to form a squad, let alone a regiment of them. It would be damning I suggest, to ascertain how much of the borrowing for the much vaunted covid fund has actually been spent on enhancing basic hospital functions, rather than pie in the sky bridges to nowhere. The more you think about it the more nonsensical it simply becomes.
I'm not involved directly, but I see the old AMAU in Chch Hospital has been upgraded for use as a covid ward, with appropriate ventilation upgrades etc. I expect other DHBs have acted similarly. When the first outbreak came along the new Hospital opening was delayed as it was converted to prepare it to cope with an expected influx of patients.
Case numbers shouldn't go exponential for long and should flatline pretty quickly. Where do you draw the line ? is a double vaccinated person that tests positive really a person with Covid ? What's the point of even testing a double vaccinated person other than to keep pushing the FEAR FACTOR to increase numbers ? Time to give it up, lockdowns are killing people that don't even get a mention.
Not deaths (or case numbers) but hospital admissions. If our hospitals get overwhelmed then bad things happen because people can't get other non-urgent (or even urgent) care. So long as hospitals can cope, we should keep slowly opening (and keeping vaccinating to the max) - reduce restrictions, wait a week or two to see effects - if all ok, keep going. My understanding is that is actually the current plan. But I agree a focus on cases is no longer very helpful.
The public service has been going down hill for years.
To get ahead, one needs to be a head nodder and be prepared to suffer Wellington.
People who speak up, don't fall into line and are prepared to challenge decision makers get nowhere. Promotions are based on those least likely to jump the promotion cue i.e are not a threat to the interviewing manager.
God defend NZ.
CT alludes to this here, suggesting the government took responsibility on themselves firsthand. But I would suggest it is the other way round. The bureaucrats are running the government. Just as one example in the early days, the instruction by the minister that all frontline border workers were to be tested, which was disobeyed, but the MoH said it was being done. Also hard to believe the government, being aware of the benefits applicable other nations, did not instruct the MoH to get widespread saliva testing introduced pronto. How come it still hasn’t happened.
It isn’t so much about the strategy, but rather compliance with that strategy.
With this current outbreak, Wellington with its “Go early go hard” and compliance meant Delta can be eliminated and therefore enjoying Level 2 like the rest of the country.
Unfortunately some in Auckland and the Waikato have not been compliant - the consequence all have suffered ongoing limitations.
Couldn’t go to Auckland a couple of weekends ago, but in Wellington this morning thanks to that compliance.
As well, a former Labour champion Richard Prebble predicted exactly the present status to evolve in his column in the Herald at the outset of this lockdown. Of course nowadays Mr Prebble is outside of the tent doing something to his former party colleagues inside the tent.
Sydney & NSW opens up today after a few months of heavy cases. Back to business.
Fiji open to overseas tourists today with pretesting and 2 days isolation.
Australia & the Pacific moving on.
While NZ hunkers down unwilling to admit community transmission and natural immunity building up is part of a global reality and the only way forward.
Cases going exponential though https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSe…
The very Health system they forgot to enhance, upgrade and prepare for the next wave of Covid, this Delta... they had plenty of warning, yet the ey spent no effort or money on it. For that alone they should be held to account in the Court of Public Opinion (if not a real Court of Law).
It won't stop it, but it may slow it down. In simple terms, vaccinated people are likely to have less severe symptoms. This may mean that they may be asymptomatic, which means less coughing and sneezing, or have less viral loads. This may mean that vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the virus. However, the behaviours of those vaccinated people - what they do, where they go, personal hygiene and etiquette - are still important.
Vaccination is effective in preventing infections. This CDC monitoring study, that is swabbing front line workers weekly, found:
During December 14, 2020–August 14, 2021, full vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines was 80% effective in preventing RT-PCR–confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among frontline workers, further affirming the highly protective benefit of full vaccination up to and through the most recent summer U.S. COVID-19 pandemic waves. The VE point estimates declined from 91% before predominance of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant to 66% since the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant became predominant.
Because they're diagnosing from swabs, not symptoms, they're picking up asymptomatic infections as well as symptomatic.
" Do the Prime Minister's formidable communication skills actually exist?
In a word NO!
Listen to any of her sermons. Constantly mispronounces words.Incapable of answering any question of substance off the cuff. Uses a hundred words (fluff) where ten would be perfect. Reads off a prepared speech sheet constantly. Talks wildly with her hands. I have sat through my fair share of head girl speeches and that's exactly how she speaks! Actually a very poor communicator!!
If you want to hear a very good communicator, have a listen to the former NSW Premier.
Again, she is the Emperors New Clothes!! Worst PM we have ever had!!!!
This is officially a f.......g nightmare. The govt has lost the plot, the people are over lock downs (& indeed will not be locked down) the media keep spinning their version of things to no benefit for anyone & the modelers keep coming up with fanciful numbers to keep us all in line, which the govt pays for, & that as the article says above, people are now laughing at. The problem with trying to micro-manage everyone & everything, is that eventually you micro-manage things one step too far.
Dear PM, most of us have half a brain & can figure things out for ourselves. Can we please have a pandemic response which treats people as thinking human beings, not animals? Yours sincerely, Wrong John.
PS: Get rid of the lockdowns. Cases & deaths will increase. Then you watch the vax rates go up.
Min of Health shows 2 deaths from CV19 in Counties Manukau from 1175 infections
That is 0.002%
Deadly for most vulnerable?
Manukau is a third of Auckland pop
587k people
So one in 9 of no pop but one in 4 of all infections
Current active cases in nz are 462
Media and gov need to stop obsessing re case numbers and focus on what active total plus ICU numbers are
Hold up! Don't say "Ah look, it's only 0.02%!" yet leave out the part that this was under lockdown...
Look at it another way:
1. Two deaths out of 1,175 cases under lockdown for a month
2. In India when Delta was at its height, they had 400,000 cases a day, out of a population of a billion
3. Translate that to NZ's 5 million without lockdown, that'd be 2,000 cases A DAY.
Any guesses to how many deaths there would be then? We could have had 120,000 cases or more, which would equal at best 2,400 deaths or at worst 5x to 10x that.
A few things but defiance was not one of them.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-myst…
Compliance (masks, handwashing and sanitising), common sense and potentially the climate and robust immune systems of Indians...
Maybe home prevention and treatment? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO9cjy3Rydc
I know what you're trying to say, but it's not that simple because New Zealand is nothing like India. We have different population density, population health, and health infrastructure. Sure, we'd have increased cases and probably increased deaths if we weren't under lockdown, but to say it would be what happened in India is fanciful.
Now Im not saying any of the other pollies would have done a better job but Labours actions are hardly award winning:
China locked down Whuhan 30 Jan, millions of people, thats a big clue to act, meanwhile borders were not closed until 2 weeks into level 4 in March 2020 = the first outbreak. Hard and early?
MIQ facilties erected in biggest cities, once the first out break was contained they were not moved, no purpose built facilties at all and continuous leaks from these hotels.
Constantly claim the bill of rights as a reason they can not stop "kiwis" returning, despite the fact these rights can be suspended in a state of emergency, then ban Indian kiwis anyway and force vaccines on people thru extreme media pressue which are also against the bill of rights. End result 200k overseas returnees have cost the country billions and had an impact on the entire population. (I have had jab so not anti vax)
Covid fund spent on other things and little to no investment in emergency health care, infact froze their wages.
Complacent and preening over their success in stamping out covid, that they let in, they open up a travel bubble. Depsite saying travel at your own risk then organise flights to bring these people back to nz with limited controls.
Despite leaky MIQs and audits they think a plank of wood with a gap at the top next to a walkway with an airbourne virus is secure?
I could go on and already have but the fact that the virus is in mt eden prison, the most locked down place must prove that lockdowns dont work, the vaccine only last for 4-6 months but maybe reduces hospital pressure but with stuff all icu beds it doesnt matter anyway.
We had a chance last year to enhance MIQ build hospital capacity etc but that time has passed now, look after your own health, get insurance dont rely on the public system if you can help it and lets drop the daily apartide and fear mongering and get on with life.
Yes it was an extraordinarily inept and ill fated decision to open up with Australia. Firstly because immediately NZ’s border security only became as good as that of Australia, vastly larger transit numbers. Secondly a new variant, subsequently named Delta, had at that time already escalated to 150,000 new cases daily in India, only 10 hour flight distant. Thirdly they were fully aware the vaccination level then in NZ was way too low to provide sufficient protection to sufficient people. Why did happen then. Firstly Scott Morrison simply put our PM on the mat and brushed her off, like the proverbial lightweight. Secondly it would have been hugely more unpopular politically for the government not to open, so you could fairly say they bowed to public pressure. Political expediency overrode the health priorities that had been so carefully and effectively built up. To my mind, this is one of the most ill judged and ominous decisions any NZ government has ever made.
My recollection is that the one person, said to have kicked the delta game off, travelled down to the Coromandel etc, was in contact with, or was, a traveller returning on a open border flight. And then there was the confusion over the MIQ public area at the hotel in downtown Auckland. Don’t think it has ever been accurately traced back. But you are correct MIQ did fail and still can and that should have been known to be so. After that one initial example was announced, we were subsequently informed that delta had likely been in the community some 10 days or so beforehand. Agree therefore it has not been actually sheeted back to an open border traveller, but that hasn’t been ruled out either. The main point of my comment was the imprudent nature and the quite telling circumstances involved in the government’s decision making.
At a personal level. Jacinda has been receiving international fame for how well her strategy and policies have been working. That's all based on elimination and zero tollrance.
Lots of praise on MSM. Women leader of the year etc.
That's a hard thing to climb down from. Turns out that the long term reality is no different from the rest of the world. But changing strategy at this point is admitting we over cooked it in the first place.
We are not going to be opening up any time soon. They govt has clearly shown how they will respond to this virus. Hard restrictions, not much else.
Deputy PM Robertson let slip a clue which explained why the government itself is not issuing an actual vaccination target percentage wise. And it is quite logical too because amidst that, there will be numbers, pockets of unvaccinated and/or at risk people by region/ locality, that will still imperil the health system’s capabilities. Remember the White Island tragedy for instance, did precisely that. If that is in fact the main concern then it is a problem that is not going to go away ever, and especially as Delta is already outrunning the vaccination rate and effectiveness. Therefore from a political perspective, a nicety, the government would see themselves as hard pressed to explain a collapse of our hospitals even though “their” vaccination target had been met.
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