National the winner in the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll; Support rises to 47% at the expense of Labour falling to 40%; Bridges' popularity grows despite Ardern remaining the clear preferred prime minister 

National the winner in the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll; Support rises to 47% at the expense of Labour falling to 40%; Bridges' popularity grows despite Ardern remaining the clear preferred prime minister 
National Leader Simon Bridges

National and ACT would have enough support to form a government if an election was held today, according to the latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll.

With support for National up 3%-points to 47% since the last poll in July, it would have 60 seats. Adding a seat for ACT would give the duo 61 - just enough to govern.

Support for Labour fell 3%-points to 40%. This would give it 51 seats.

Adding eight seats for the Greens, which received 7% support, would only give the pair 59 seats.

While support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern fell 3%-points to 38% in the preferred prime minister ranks, she was still miles ahead of National Leader Simon Bridges at 9%.

Nonetheless, up 3%-points, Bridges had his best poll result since April last year. 

At 4%, NZ First wouldn't make it in to Parliament. 

Newshub-Reid Research Poll results, released on Sunday, showed similar trends to the 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll.

However its results fluctuated more dramatically when compared to its previous results, while the 1 News-Colmar Brunton ones were more consistent.

For example, support for Labour fell by a relatively drastic 9.2%-points, as all other parties garnered more support, while support for Ardern fell 11%-points.

However the Newshub-Reid Research Poll only put National slightly ahead of Labour at 44%, versus 42%.

Ardern received 38% and Bridges 7% support as preferred prime minister.

Labour’s image may have taken a hit from its handling of sexual assault claims from within the party, which saw its president resign. 

An underwhelming housing reset and increasingly negative business confidence may also have dampened support for the party.

Both sets of poll results may reflect sentiment returning to normal following Ardern’s surge in popularity after the mosque terror attacks.  

Here are the results in full:

1 NEWS-COLMAR BRUNTON POLL

(Conducted between October 5 and 9. Previous poll conducted in July)

Preferred party:

  • Labour: 40% (-3%-points)
  • National: 47% (+2%-points)
  • Greens: 7% (+1%-point)
  • NZ First: 4% (+1%-point)
  • ACT: 1% (no change)
  • TOP: 1% (no change)
  • Maori Party: 1% (no change)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: 38% (-3%-points)
  • Simon Bridges: 9% (+3%-points)
  • Judith Collins: 5% (-1%-point)
  • Winston Peters: 4% (+2%-points)

NEWSHUB-REID RESEARCH POLL

(Conducted between October 2 and 9. Previous poll conducted in June)

Preferred party:

  • Labour: 41.6% (-9.2%-points)
  • National: 43.9% (+6.5%-points)
  • Greens: 6.3% (+0.1%-points)
  • NZ First: 4.0% (+1.2%-points)
  • ACT: 1.4% (+0.6%-points)
  • TOP: 1.1% (+1.0%-points)
  • Maori Party: 0.7% (+0.2%-points)

Preferred Prime Minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: 38.4% (-10.6%-points)
  • Simon Bridges: 6.7% (+2.5%-points)
  • Judith Collins: 5.2% (-1.9%-points)

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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17
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The year of delivery that Jacinda stated early in the year, is the year of no delivery!
Seriously, many people who voted for the parties that formed this so-called coalition government are now realising that they voted for total incompetents!
The policies that they campaigned on have not looked like being successful.
KiwiFlop
Reduced immigration
Less poverty
Blah blah blah.
They are totally hopeless!
Winnie gone quiet hasn’t he, he knows he is on a sinking ship!!

20
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I agree, the party of broken promises. It feels like they just promised whatever it took to get into power, with no intention of delivering.

18
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Yep.
This is what's happens, they gamed the system to get into power.

A coalition of the unpopular.
Unstable structure no formulation/agreement on policy
No executive experience of delivering policy, no talent.

Activism is not political leadership.
Activism is not executive talent and experience.

They seem ok to deliver the left wing stuff like handing out power money to (potentially rich) oldies, but the central policies like housing and transport have been an utter flop. If these are the poll numbers now, imagine what the will be like next year when national campaigns on a $50 a week tax cut! Labour need to do something very quickly or they will lose the next election. National have finally realised the best thing they can do is keep their mouth shut and watch.

but the central policies like housing and transport have been an utter flop.

Right and that's what real socialism is about. Getting in right for the people's and society's utility.

Can someone fact check this?

https://investigatemagazine.co.nz/27490/climate-shocker-nzs-zero-carbon-...

New Zealand’s Labour/Greens/NZ First government appears to have seriously breached Article 2 of the Paris Climate Accord in its proposed Zero Carbon Bill. putting the credibility of the country’s climate change policy at risk.

The shock revelation comes in a briefing sent to the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Adviser, Professor Juliet Gerrard last Friday. EnvironomicsBriefingonZeroCarbon

The Zero Carbon policy has seen millions of hectares of good farmland sold off on a fast-track process to foreign carbon credit investors to plant forests, and it’s seen a serious drop in dairy, beef and sheep production....

Fact check - "Rich overseas investors have been hoovering up our best farmland without having to go through strict Overseas Investment Office requirements".

That's stand-out bull dust. They are buying up the marginal stuff that should never have been cleared initially - much of it land that was cleared via the subsidy of the livestock incentive scheme.

Lightweight article pandering to those who have already made their minds up.

The Man2
Her statement at the start of year that this was to be the year of delivery is an admission that last year wasn’t. Ten months into this year we still haven’t seen the expected delivery.
I thought it very significant that in a sound bite in response to the poll results was that the next 12 months leading up to the elections will see delivery. Yeah ok.
At the moment she seems unable to control Shane Jones from creating ministerial embarrassment.

" Let's Do This " worn off ? ... not still getting the warm fuzzies from Taxcindas pre-election slogan.... haaaa deee haaaaaaaa . .

... understaffer to PM Taxcinda ... " ma'am , Lester has lost the Wellington mayoralty ... should we show him no pity , distance ourselves , kick the snot out of the loser ? "

Taxcinda : " let's do this ! "

As one of their young voters, yes it's hard to disagree with that. Though I'm still not sure I can bring myself to ever vote National.

A young Kiwi voting National is cutting off their nose to spite their face, at the moment.

But agree, Labour need to find their courage to act. We don't need John Key 2.0.

National had 9 years of delivery - of government debt, 50 odd billion, now that's incompetence for you, and what do we have to show for it? not much, 9 years wasted, they drove down the wages of teachers, nurses, doctors, polices, you name it, anyone useful, ran down the health service, ran down any and every public service going.

Umm If the Nat got someone to lead other than SB then my vote still go to the other party! It's a NO from me..

.. agreed .. the Gnats need to burn their bridges ... Simian is a major turn off .... and , the Crusher has repositioned herself as a potential leader , with her recent Facebook posting about climate change extremists ...

Listen to you all - All about the person. What about the policies?

Collins to Bridges, is the equivalent of the fire to the frying pan.

It does not matter who leads National they will continue to flood the country with new people, refuse to fund any new infrastructure, and underfund all current operations.

agree with that.

10
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Labour have proven to be as disingenuous as the Nats.

The fact is that growth has stalled forever, globally. The fact is that sustainability - real sustainability - is the only valid goal on the planet (and locally). This has two parts; population, and per-head consumption.

Labour is exemplified by the pathetic Parker/Robertson Waihi 'decision'. This tells us that when the chips are down, this isn't an aspirational Government. Ardern's comment that 'Climate Change is this generation's nuclear moment' was so much empty hogwash. People respect the holding of values, even if they disagree with the holder. What nobody respects, is a crowd who virtue-signal then march to the loudest-playing piper.

This lot have to have a serious think about where they're headed.

IMHO Parker is the most overrated minister.

.. nah ... no one holds a candle to Phil " the builder " Twyford ...

But he's never been rated highly, so he can't be overrated!

... ahhh .... yes .... I stand corrected , then ....

The way Phil Twyford bumbles and stumbles , I sometimes wonder if he's Nick Smith's brother , on the other side of the house...

Really? What about the self proclaimed minister of Child Poverty reduction?

if national could pick a better leader they would romp in, i still think they need NZ first and WP will never go with national, he has a loooong memory and holds his grudges forever

Nationals have some fine MPs; they seem to have more experience of work than our 'Labour' party so I ought to support them. But I will not only not vote for them and I will be actively campaigning against them until they dispose of the foreign spy on their party list.

I’m not sure work experience is what is needed. More like determination and drive and a hard nosed attitude. Anyone with half a brain would have known that the only way to build 10000 houses a year would have been for the government to invest heavily in a prefab factory and in the mean time they could have cleared off thousands of sites and got foundations in and shown clear progress. But I think they buckled too easily to the “business community” who could see the end of their gravy train. Same with light rail in Auckland: could have built it, but instead spent 2 years trying to involve the superfund in a PPP.

Anyone with half a brain would have known that the only way to build 10000 houses a year would have been for the government to invest heavily in a prefab factory and in the mean time they could have cleared off thousands of sites and got foundations in and shown clear progress. But I think they buckled too easily to the “business community” who could see the end of their gravy train.

Wonderfully described

You are spot on. 10,000 houses p.a., while challenging, could have been possible if the government drove the programme rather than its silly arrangements with developers. Kiwibuild was actually created by David Shearer more than 5 years ago, and was predicated on the GOVERNMENT building the housing en masse.
For some strange reason, a LABOUR GOVERNMENT seems averse to building houses. I just don't get it.
And you are right that you don't necessarily need commercial 'real world' experience. Clark, Cullen and co. didn't have that, but were driven and hard nosed. And achieved a lot.

Certainly 'real world' experience is not essential but it helps. My (National) MP started as a trainee butcher aged 16 - I find that more attractive than a hat full of PhDs. Parliament needs to be a mix that reflects our society with just a small bias towards academic research and a big bias towards lawyers (only lawyers know the danger of unintended consequences of new laws). Our current mix of MPs is a good representation of gender and race and age - but it seems to fail on personal knowledge of the working class and it is the working class who are the majority.

So you are saying that having worked in a fish and chip shop and having chaired a UN Youth working group is not sufficient experience to run a coalition government?

John Key worked for some big companies, but it didn't help him much.

Who would do the actual building? Mr. Twyford won't be out there with a hammer. There is a shortage of qualified builders and shouting that the "Government" build the houses doesn't change the fact that people have to do it.

Would it be of any benefit to National to come out prior to the election and announce that they won't work with NZF under any circumstances?

get PB to announce that, im sure WP will forgive her stitch up job 2 years ago
Winston Peters will settle lawsuit against National for Paula Bennett's scalp, Newstalk ZB understands

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12260304

Winnie, has gone awol in recent times, something is going on there.
He couldn’t even win his own electorate seat at the last election and he is the reason we now have such an inept government, end of storey.

Hmm talking about inept how about that National party, a party largely funded by a foreign power, and their polices were also blatantly shaped around interest other than NZ's.

It will be a completely different political playing field in nine months time. WP & NZF will be creating drama for publicity as usual. There will be stupid acts & internal party shenanigans being seized on by the opposing parties. All of that will be embellished & hyped by the media so as to sell themselves. But two facts remain clearly in place. Firstly, if John Key at his popular peak couldn’t get National over the line on their own, then the current lot have not a snowball’s chance in hell. Secondly, a viable coalition party for National does not exist. The Greens will be returned because part of the electorate is compelled to vote for them willy nilly. That means to prevent a Labour Greens only government,enough will vote for NZF to return them.

Foreign sell out of NZ back on the table soon, immigration tap back on full. Bulls time to leverage up...!

Hopefully this is the kick they needed. They have been holding back and if they don't move quickly, it'll be too late to recover..

National will never come to power under Simon bridges.

Yes, I hope JA and her team doesn’t pull a Lester, who by the way is the first Mayor in the history of Wellington city to have served only a single term.
Putting the cancelled regional road projects back on the table and hurrying the building act overhaul across the line should bring back some confidence in Labour’s ability to deliver anything of importance.

JA needs to deliver some key wins and in a hurry. She can't rely on SB being unelectable to get her a second term.

Labour are gone.
They haven’t achieved anything of importance to NZ that they said they would do!

All that she knows is idealist pie in the sky dreams. She can not pull anything out of a hat because she and her followers are empty.
NZF should cut them loose now.

Sadly, agree.
My gut feeling, months out from the election, was that she was much more style over substance.
I got a bit swayed by her charisma (And also was sick to death of the Nats). Should always go with the gut.
Look, she's a great international cheerleader, and nice person. But in terms of driving forward a policy agenda? yeah, nah.
She's moderately smart, but not very smart.
Cunliffe had much more substance, but not enough style...
If Nats offer a decent tax cut, I'll probably vote for them. If you can't beat the self centred masses, might as well join them.
No matter how well meaning Labour's policies are (and I'm still drawn to them much more than over National's), you just can't trust this bunch to execute them.
So why not take the tax cut. Better than voting for policies that just don't get executed. The country is no better off, and me personally and my family are not better off.

At the end of the day, Labour's biggest problem has been it's huge talent deficit. It's a pretty insipid and uninspiring bunch of ministers. Well meaning with the right policy 'ideas', but really mediocre, naive and sometimes just dumb. And sometimes arrogant too. One minister in particular, is dumb AND arrogant.
And they've dropped the ball in a huge way on two of their biggest election platforms - housing, and public transport.
I still believe most of their policies are sound, and do-able - with competent leadership....

In fairness, that description suits both major parties at the moment. Half the problem.

Labour seriously need to renew themselves. Cut loose underperforming MP's and recruit people with proven managerial and leadership competence, and at least a few with industrial/business experience, tired union hacks, student politicians and comms grads are not cutting it.

Yeah agree. The next 6 months are critical.
I struggle to see that they can deliver any key wins, though.
They are in big trouble if there's lots of people like me - basically centre-left - seriously thinking of not voting for them.

I note a very, very different sentiment in the comments posted here compared to those 18 months to two years ago.

Could you imagine Soyaman as PM? There'd be a branch office of the Chinese Communist Party on the top floor of the Beehive!

Two years of Labour lead instability, inabillitity and little to no hope that they can turn it arround.
NZF should do themself and NZ a favour and walk from Labour now and remove them from any future power imeditially!

What instability? there are very strong global economic headwinds, caused by Trumps trade war, but that is totally outside of their control, it seems this is not being accounted for at all. Yet JK and National were allowed to hide their massive racking up of government debt and blame it on the GFC for nine years, even though it only really lasted for 3 to 4, and the earthquakes also allowed lots of jobs and money to flow into the country.

To the gloaters above - this a poll not an election, and the Coalition remains in Government! And besides are they doing worse than the previous National Government, and what would this National Party Government do differently? Open the doors to immigration again? Cozy up to China Again? Encourage foreign investment in residential housing again? Put more trucks on the road (again) rather than properly funding Kiwi Rail?

Im with you 100% seems people have forgotten how hopeless national where, if they could not fix a problem, just deny it exists!

Yeah but thats what kneecaps this country time and again. We can never pluck up the courage to stick with a progressive government and instead always hand the beehive back to the incompetant visionless conservatives time and time again and its why everything is rundown and non functional in our country.

.

Or they know they were hopeless but they personally benefited even if it was at the expense of other generations of Kiwis.

a lot of us voted in JK for fresh ideas and to clean up a mess, same as how Jacinda got in,
i think its disappointment that they have not even started to do anything that is the problem
would i like to see them get another term yes BUT for the reason that national still needs a major clean out and fresh ideas
if they get back in it will be the same people with the same ideas as last time.
they will fling open the doors even wider, reverse the foreign buyer ban , we will have even more homeless, more congestion in all the major cities, forget about a bed at hospital they will be so crowded you will be doing your own surgery.
those of us that are ok will at least get a reduced tax bill though

Exactly right, some very short memories here, National were a terrible government, 9 years completely wasted.

Whilst this term so far has been a pile of inaction, all I have to think of is National's historical selling out of NZ and SB's love affair with the CCP. Back to TOP.

TOP is a wasted vote... wont win a seat and no chance of getting 5%. You are basically throwing your vote away.

Don't really care at this stage.. No desire to vote red or blue

There are no real voting options for me at least. National: no credibility that they want what is best for NZ, Labour: empty promises and blatant lies. NZ First: worse than both National and Labour. Greens: Crazy stuff.
No real options. I think there is a general global trend in democratic countries that the quality of politicians that people can elect is constantly decreasing.
If you ask me, it is time for influential Kiwis in various fields who have stayed away from politics to come in and get behind the wheel. All the current lot of incompetent, pretentious, self-serving, short-sighted politicians of whatever color must go.

agree

Aspirational goals aren't lies, ok they haven't hit certain target levels, but they have still done largely what they have said they were going to, also you have to remember with coalition governments it's going to be impossible to do everything you wanted to anyway as there are trade offs, that's just how MMP works, even so it's still a thousand times better than FPP.
They've shown common sense though, an example of a government not showing common sense is the National party allowing foreign buyers to run riot and create a property bubble while completely sitting on your hands.

A lie is John Key saying that he won't raise GST, but then doing it in 2010, what short memories some of us have.

If China is the devil (and it is), Simon and Judith will be waiting to welcome us to the gates of hell.

China is the devil? Really? OMFG.

Self-serving? yea
Authoritarian? yea

The devil? seriously?

It is interesting how preferred PM is less than the party vote for Labour. Given the only reason they are in Government is due to the 'Jacinda' effect. It is clearly wearing off. The fact that National is the most preferred party even though nobody likes the leader is an indication that the party is strong.

Rastus- it sounds like yours is the mind that is already made up. Hadleigh Station (1727 ha ) and Lagoon Hills (4273 ha, 1360 in forestry ) are two Wairarapa properties recently sold for forestry that have both been around for a fair while. Hadleigh was bought by an Austrian countess for a reported $13.4m plus the $10,000 fine she had to pay for breaking some obscure OIO rule.

Yes please bring back National, so they can rack up another 50 odd billion in government, and do nothing in 9 years other than drive down wages, and create a dangerous property bubble, so new buyers have to spent all their disposable income to meet mortgage payments.
Turn a blind eye to massive investment from foreign property buyers and then try to pull the wool over the eyes of the NZ public about how many of them there are,
Create a massive housing shortage by cynically pumping the country with thousands more immigrants than it can handle every year, to create fake growth and make it look like the economy is growing more than it is.
Wow yeah can't wait to get me some more of that.

Labour must be doing a very bad job if people prefer National.