A review of things you need to know before you go home on Friday; no retail rate changes, Crown surplus rises, consumer confidence stable, rural debt shrinks, swap rates fall hard, NZD holds, & much more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

EXTREME FEAR
Today's big background influence is the -4.4% drop on Wall Street, eclipsing Europe's earlier -3.3% retreat. Markets are in full fear mode. All Asian markets are also down sharply in early trading. The ASX200 is currently also being thrashed just as hard, down -2.6% so far and the NZX50 is currently down -2.3%. That means we are heading for a -7.5% drop for the week. If it ends like that, we will have gotten off lightly compared with other markets. In four days this week, the S&P500 is already down by -10.8%. Bond markets are in fear mode too. See note below.

TAX TAKE STILL VERY HIGH
The Crown's OBEGAL ('profit'?) rose to +$1.4 bln in the seven months to the end of January. But its more pure accounting result (using proper accounting standards) shrunk to +$2.2 bln as some large asset valuations were required to be reversed. The OBEGAL gains were the result of still-impressive year-on-year gains in taxes on individuals (+6.2%), on companies (+23%) and GST (+4.2%), all of them much higher than GDP is growing. Treasury is preparing for a sharp reversal.

CONSUMERS OBLIVIOUS
"The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell just a smidgen in February, and is still solid. Households are feeling pretty good about life. A net 41% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 8, but still strong. The bullish housing market will be supporting this result."

IMPORTANT DEBT MOVES
Mortgage loan balances are up +7.1% in January from the same month a year ago, the highest rise in more than 30 months. Personal loan balances fell -0.6% and that is the largest fall since February 2012 (and has a lot to do with BuyNow, PayLater schemes not required to report their balances). Business lending growth is stable at +6.3% pa but rural lending is now declining, down -0.3% year-on-year and that is the first time these balances have fallen in eight years. It is hard to know whether this is because farmers are taking debt reduction action, or banks are requiring less exposure.

WEAKER DEPOSIT GROWTH
Household bank deposits rose +4.3% in January from a year ago and now total $184.0 bln. This growth is slowing and the January rise was the weakest since October 2010. Also, see this.

UDC TO LINK UP WITH US LIFE INSURER & ANNUITIES FIRM?
The Australian Financial Review reports US investment firm Apollo Global Management may bid for ANZ's UDC Finance with the help of its portfolio company Athene, which is an acquisitive American life insurer and annuities company. Apollo’s plan is to bankroll its UDC bid with cheap funds from Athene, the AFR says. Apollo's up against US private equity group TPG Capital with bids due in the second week of March, the AFR says.

JAIL FOR RESTAURATEUR
A co-owner of the Masala Restaurant chain has been jailed for hiding millions of dollars in cash sales and laundering large amounts of it. Rupinder Singh Chahil was sentenced today at the Auckland District Court to three years and two months in prison, plus a $50,000 fine, on nine money laundering charges and 34 tax evasion charges.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. There are now 4262 cases outside China, a rise of +930 in one day. A week ago that number was 2200 so it has nearly doubled in one week. South Korea reported an additional +505 cases since yesterday, Ital reported +202 more, and China reported +742 more.

'GOOD, BUT GET THE DEBT DOWN'
Ratings agency Standard & Poors has affirmed its AA foreign currency rating for the New Zealand Government, with a 'positive' outlook. A positive outlook suggests that an upgrade is possible with the next 24 months. Risks around the country's high external debt are the main inhibitor of an upgrade. (Ironically, Kainga-Ora got the same rating from S&P. It is an agency committed to borrowing a lot more in the immediate future.)

FORCED BREAKUP
In the UK, their regulator has written to the major accounting firms, expecting progress on them 'ring-fencing' their audit practices. It is widely anticipated that this will see these firms broken up so that they can meet their obligations on audit quality, independence and transparency.

LOCAL SWAP RATES DOWN HARD AGAIN
Swap rates are down sharply today, and are flatter too, with the two year down another -7 bps, the five year down -6 bps and the ten year down -5 bps. The 90-day bank bill rate is also down -2 bps to 1.06%. In Australia, their swap rates are also down but a little less than us. The Aussie Govt 10yr is soft at 0.86%, down -4 bps. The China Govt 10yr is also soft at 2.81% and down -5 bps. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is lower too, down -7 bps at 1.07%. And the UST 10yr yield has reached a new record low, now at 1.26% and a -6 bps fall from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR STILL QUITE SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has slipped further, now at 62.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer at 96 AUc. Against the euro we are softer too at 57.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now lower at under 68.9.

BITCOIN BOUNCES
Bitcoin is up +3.2% today at US$8,879. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.