NZ export intentions fall to record low

Business confidence slumps, as export intentions hit rock bottom and firms' own activity intentions fall to their lowest level since 2009

10th Mar 20, 1:22pm by Jenée Tibshraeny

New Zealand firms’ export intentions are the lowest they’ve been since at least 1988 when ANZ first asked the survey question.

A net 21.5% of firms expect lower exports, according to preliminary ANZ Business Outlook figures for March, released due to coronavirus.

Meanwhile, firms’ own activity intentions are the lowest they’ve been since 2009, with a net 12.8% anticipating less activity.

The results include 242 survey responses made in the week to March 9. The full-month results for March will be released on March 31.

“Businesses are quite rightly very concerned about the potential impacts of the global COVID-19 outbreak, with alarm about the prospects for exports particularly marked,” ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner said.

“All activity indicators fell. Most – including business confidence, employment and investment intentions – in broad terms gave up the gains seen since the nadir around August/September last year.

“It is encouraging that firms are not slamming on the brakes any harder at this point…

“This is indeed a unique shock for exporters, to logistics rather than demand – at least initially.

“In terms of inflation indicators, expected costs fell to the lowest level since we started asking the question last April. Pricing intentions and inflation expectations fell back to around the lows seen last year.”

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13 Comments

by xingmowang | 10th Mar 20, 1:51pm 1583801473

Crisis or 危机 in Chinese.

危 means danger.
机 means opportunity.

In Chinese philosophy, opportunities will always emerge even if there are dangers.

What the globe needs is to work together like never before!!

Now, we should understand why we live in a community of shared future of mankind, as said by President Xi.

by blowjoy | 10th Mar 20, 2:00pm 1583802021

Are you sure? 机 also means "time" as in "时机". So it's crisis time.

According to Wikipedia, "It is frequently said in Western motivational speaking that the Chinese word for "crisis" is composed of two Chinese characters signifying "danger" and "opportunity" respectively. This is, however, considered by linguists to be a misconception."

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F

by xingmowang | 10th Mar 20, 2:11pm 1583802693

Great efforts to learn some Chinese!

Things that never got mentioned in NZ media nor any Western media -- China speeds up "new infrastructure" investment to combat economic pressure (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/05/c_138846271.htm).

This is the opportunity that I am talking about.

by Somebloke | 10th Mar 20, 5:53pm 1583816028

The future of mankind is a shared destiny. The sharing of totalitarian socialist propoganda isn't.

by christlucas | 10th Mar 20, 1:56pm 1583801776

Do we get negative interest rates or lots of QE and helicopter money I wonder?

by Advisor | 10th Mar 20, 2:22pm 1583803348

I guess that's what the businesses aiming for with all this bitching and moaning. Let's not mull over the fact that our current economic model is unsustainable and was doomed to fail all along.
After feeding hundreds of thousands of low-skilled migrants to sweatshop owners and slumlords for their decade-long profit run, the government should now subsidise their wage bill and handout moneybags to them at the first sign of trouble.

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Mar 20, 4:01pm 1583809281

But, but, but, gotta keep house prices rising, you know. Otherwise the perpetual leveraged buyout system might implode. LBOs rule.

by gingerninja | 10th Mar 20, 2:09pm 1583802565

There is the virus and the direct effect of the virus and then there is the effect of fear. Behavioural Economics could be every bit as big a factor as a supply side shock.

With Central Banks low on ammunition and global debts levels extremely high, economies are particularly vulnerable to irrational fear over reactions.

by Audaxes | 10th Mar 20, 3:00pm 1583805638

New Zealand firms’ export intentions are the lowest they’ve been since at least 1988 when ANZ first asked the survey question.
A net 21.5% of firms expect lower exports, according to preliminary ANZ Business Outlook figures for March, released due to coronavirus.

Are import intentions tapering in the same volumes and worth so as not to exacerbate our chronic current account deficit?

by Advisor | 10th Mar 20, 3:15pm 1583806507

I wouldn't think so. While we import a wide range of goods from around the world, our export portfolio is not as diversified (in terms of both goods classification and destination) to help navigate us through such demand shocks.

by Roger Witherspoon | 10th Mar 20, 4:10pm 1583809845

No new aeroplanes needed for a few years though. I was pussled by the low return on capital investment that Air New Zealand go for, mentioned in a recent article, barely more than their cost of capital with no margin for error. Now I know why, they thought they ran a utility, not a discretionary purchase. Ooops. No worries though, they are largely government owned , so we can all chip in another $500 million, whenever they need it. They can make it back on airfares into Nelson, now they have chased off the competition, once again.

by Audaxes | 10th Mar 20, 7:28pm 1583821680

Chaston reported this:

Using provisional data, Stats NZ now says our two way trade with China has taken a big hit from coronavirus, with exports (-13%) and imports (-22%) both down compared to a year ago. So far the trade disruption is only with China, and not noticeable with other countries yet.

by Keen Observer | 11th Mar 20, 8:00am 1583866847

Fear Not, the Blue team/Nat Co/ANZ with their strong business ties to China affiliations, will win back the election this year - the looser team will be just that - down in the gutter (including all their followers). Like comrade Xingmowang diligently remind us from time to time. The future of shared world of humankind is coming from cooperation/collaboration of each other. Now, world shall see how Italy that just being into lock-down will be massively helped by the Chinese, also the initial square mile quarantine zone in NY city, When Covid19 started popup? China is the first country on the planet to share this genome sequence information, China seems to overcome it, now the spreading to other countries? China already prepared it's massive resources to help the International community. It is in China/Chinese DNA that heavy/light burdens are to be shared together, the ups we all shared, the down we all shared - This really made the likes of greedy US, Saudi or Russian to be put into Shame by the exemplary nationhood/world management by China. Salute !