Business Confidence

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

ANZ's Business Outlook survey for the March month captures a rapidly darkening mood across the New Zealand economy as realisation dawns the Middle East crisis won't be short lived

ANZ's Business Outlook survey for the March month captures a rapidly darkening mood across the New Zealand economy as realisation dawns the Middle East crisis won't be short lived

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

'The fact is, the economy surprises forecasters all the time, and we’re keeping an open mind'

'The fact is, the economy surprises forecasters all the time, and we’re keeping an open mind'

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026