Business Confidence

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

'The fact is, the economy surprises forecasters all the time, and we’re keeping an open mind'

'The fact is, the economy surprises forecasters all the time, and we’re keeping an open mind'

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

'We are forecasting the first OCR hike to come in December this year, but if these pricing intentions manifest in hard data, it’ll come earlier than that'

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

NZIER says QSBO shows economic recovery starting to take shape with effects of lower interest rates flowing into broader economy. BNZ's Toplis sees 'clear signs' inflationary pressures are rising

NZIER says QSBO shows economic recovery starting to take shape with effects of lower interest rates flowing into broader economy. BNZ's Toplis sees 'clear signs' inflationary pressures are rising

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties