What happened Thursday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; only minor rate changes, major change for house insurance, jump in public assistance demand, resilient trade, some quaint history, swaps steepen, NZD firm, & more

9th Apr 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kookmin Bank has reduced all its home loan rates today, including its floating rates. None of these changes are market-leading however.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has cut most of its key savings rates today, almost halving them. But they are all still way better than equivalent bank rates.

SEISMIC SHIFT
A Public Inquiry led by Dame Sylvia Cartwright has recommended a seismic shift in risk from private insurers to EQC when it comes to insuring residential buildings against natural disasters. The insurance industry doesn't agree.

HUGE RISE IN NEED FOR PUBLIC ASSISTANCE
Last week, more than 10,000 people were added to the main adult benefit rolls. The unemployment benefit ("Jobseeker Support") rose +15% year-on-year in March, food grants issued jumped more than +50%, and KiwiSaver hardship withdrawals rose almost +15%.

STOCKING UP
Official figures show spending on food and groceries rose a whopping +$376 mln in the past month; elsewhere it's a predictably grim story.

TRADE UPDATE - AND ITS POSITIVE
StatsNZ is tracking our international trade in goods daily and has been since February 1. For the week ended 31 March 2020 compared with the equivalent week in 2019, total imports from all countries were down -3.9% (-$52 mln), from $1.32 bln to $1.27 bln, total exports to all countries were up +13% (+$172 mln), from $1.31 bln to $1.48 bln, imports from China were down -27% (-$64 mln), to $172 mln, and exports to China were up +4.2% (+$14 mln), to $350 mln. Clearly our export trade flows have shown remarkable resilience.

NOT B.A.U.
ANZ's truckometer series was out today for March and that revealed some very large shifts. Light (car) traffic data plunged, and Heavy (trade) data did too but no-where near as much. This data has moved so much and so quickly the way it can be interpreted needs special care. But the much lesser fall in Heavy truck movements backs up the StatsNZ trade data (above) suggesting there are some resilient sectors still functioning well in our economy.

DEFERRALS WON'T HURT PERSONAL RATINGS
Banks have agreed with the main credit reporting agencies that anyone who has deferred their mortgage repayments for up to six months because they are financially impacted by Covid-19 will not have their credit rating affected as a result of the deferral, provided they were not in arrears before the pandemic.

SOME QUAINT HISTORY
The RBNZ updated its M10 data today to reveal the total value of all housing stock in New Zealand as at 31 December 2019. It was up to $1.188 tln, a rise of +6.3% in a year. This was the largest single asset class in the country, gaining +$31 bln in the three months to December 31, or +$342 mln per day. (Or for those who like numbers, +$240,000 every minute of every hour for those 91 days.) Of course, that is the history. It is extremely unlikely the same pace continued to March or into April. There may be some willing sellers, but the number of willing buyers will have shrunk sharply and the prices they now expect to pay won't be like 2019. The new normal when it emerges won't be anything like the old normal.

LOCAL UPDATE
There are now 1239 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +29 new cases today and lower than the +50 increase yesterday. That is the lowest daily increase in more than two weeks. The number of clusters remains at 12. Only one person has died here. There are now 14 people in hospital with the disease today, still four are now in ICU, two critical. More people recovered today (35) than were infected and our recovery rate is now up to 26%.

GLOBAL UPDATE
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 1,515,000 and up +88,000 from the 1,430,000 we had this time yesterday. 29% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +33,000 in one day to 432,000. The Americans are still claiming the disease is peaking there, but there is no real evidence of that yet. China's recovery rate is now up to 94%. Australia now has over 6000 cases, a peaking, and 51 deaths. Australia's recovery rate is 18%. Global deaths now exceed 88,000. Death rates in some European countries are alarming. The UK's for example is 11.6%. Italy's is 12.7%.

GOING SEPARATE WAYS
The S&P500 ended its session earlier today up +3.4% on the assumption that the US coronavirus infections and deaths are peaking, and at tevels lower than their models indicate. It is not enthusiasm shared in other markets. Shanghai has opened today up +0.2%, Hong Kong is up +0.5% while Tokyo is down -0.5% so far. The ASX200 is up +1.9% for local reasons that are similar to Wall Street's. The NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.5% with heady retreats by A2 Milk (-3%) and Fonterra (-2.3%), and an even large fall by F&P Healthcare (-6%).

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Yesterday, swaps held at the short end and rose at the long end again, a sharpish steepening the curve. It is its steepest in three weeks now. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change. The 90-day bank bill rate slipped -2 bps to 0.45%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +10 bps at 0.92%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 2.52%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -2 bps at 1.07%. The UST 10yr is up +2 bps today to just under 0.71%.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has been stable today, holding on to its overnight gains at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are soft at 97.6 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 55.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down to 66.7 and a three week high.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The price of Bitcoin is marginally firmer today at US$7,312. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

110 Comments

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 4:02pm 1586404941

Niall Ferguson

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-lets-zoom-xi-he-has-que…

by Roger Witherspoon | 9th Apr 20, 4:11pm 1586405473

http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism/politics/todays-strongmen-are-w…

by bw | 9th Apr 20, 4:26pm 1586406370

Both links goodreads. Thanks. And how prescient!
" If I were Boris, my main worry would be that by promoting Rishi Sunak to the chancellorship, I had inadvertently nominated my successor."

And just to nudge those unemployment figures along:

Air New Zealand is planning to make nearly 1500 cabin crew redundant.

by Lapun | 9th Apr 20, 6:10pm 1586412616

""so long as a fifth of humanity are subject to the will of an unaccountable, corrupt and power-hungry organization with a long history of crimes against its own people, the rest of humanity will not be safe "" - hopefully the message Jiang Yang is quietly passing to his fellow MPs.

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:18pm 1586431110

or are those 1/5 an indoctrinated army... China is the devil and proving more so each day

by childofthesun | 9th Apr 20, 4:25pm 1586406355

Excellent. God bless America and Ferguson.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 4:33pm 1586406837

Exactly - Trump’s Economic Approval Rating Hits Highest Level Ever

The coronavirus pandemic has thrown the American economy into a deep contraction and sent unemployment soaring but Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of the crisis.

Is Trump Xi's useful idiot?

by Kezza R | 9th Apr 20, 4:53pm 1586408015

The US public are expecting a slow down in infections and deaths next week. This could happen but it would take a year of the current restrictions to keep it that way can the US keep their 'lock down' going for a year or even another two months?
I doubt it very much. As for the expected peak, there us little to no chance of that happening with current infection rates.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 5:12pm 1586409121

This isn't helping:

A group of 48 Republican lawmakers in the US House of Representatives, led by House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, have called on Saudi Arabia for a reduction in oil production, noting that “the kingdom’s March decision to artificially depress global crude prices” and a failure to address this “manufactured energy crisis” could harm bilateral relations.

“We are concerned, however, with the kingdom’s actions to artificially distort global crude oil markets as countries around the world struggle to address a growing economic and health crisis fueled by the COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. “The kingdom, however, can change course, reduce production, and restore balance to a market that has seen the most drastic price drop in years”.

The group complained that thousands of US workers in the oil and gas sector and other related fossil fuel industries were facing increased financial and economic uncertainty due to the price drop. Link.

by Kezza R | 9th Apr 20, 5:31pm 1586410296

Expect a false flag oil attack, the US needs a oil price rise and they will get an oil price rise.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:36pm 1586414183

Who could they attack without risk of a nuclear meltdown?

by Kezza R | 9th Apr 20, 6:37pm 1586414276

False flag event. It's not like they won't have a box of 'events' sitting arround ready for an issue.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:45pm 1586414723

Acting like pirates? No longer a superpower?

by Kezza R | 9th Apr 20, 7:19pm 1586416791

Yes the US dose false flags.

by Masher | 9th Apr 20, 9:13pm 1586423589

Since forever.

Random fact - 4 WTC buildings fell on 9/11 :-)

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:26pm 1586431578

The US wants to keep their oil industry afloat while at the other time low oil prices are needed to keep businesses solvent during this upcoming recession.... It always comes down to who needs the money more..... oil high demand reduces..

All comes back to too much debt

by solardb | 9th Apr 20, 7:31pm 1586417475

You do know Brietbart is Steven Bannerman's extreme right wing propaganda machine , eh ?
CNN 's poll of polls has the average approval of Trump's handling at 48% . Of course they used terrible things like actual data , been part of the lamestream media losers.
Am I the only one that thinks "1984"whenever Trump berates the "media"????

by Kezza R | 9th Apr 20, 8:20pm 1586420420

CNN, the WHO & China. No one trusts a thing they say.

by Henry_Tull | 9th Apr 20, 9:40pm 1586425237

The Atlantic no less

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/consider-possibility-…

by solardb | 9th Apr 20, 9:49pm 1586425793

NY Times , Washington Post , LA Times, NBC, MSNBC,PBS pretty much everyone except Fox NEWS. Then the other day he had a go at a Fox News reporter , apparently didn't recognize as such because she didn't ask a friendly question. Oops.

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:28pm 1586431719

CNN is tabloid news these days

by Audaxes | 10th Apr 20, 9:00am 1586466042

Fact check

by RCD | 9th Apr 20, 5:39pm 1586410792

on a lighter note.... this came from one of my relatives who is on staff at Dunedin Hospital

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYG93TjQk1M&feature=youtu.be

enjoy.....

by frazz | 9th Apr 20, 7:22pm 1586416979

Great link...lots of talent

by Brock Landers | 9th Apr 20, 6:46pm 1586414799

What a fantastic article.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 4:22pm 1586406128

Instead of the Fed shifting the supply curve to the right and calming the situation, dealers shift the supply curve backward regardless of unlimited “repo” operations and QE6EVA.

The self-reinforcing spiral takes hold no matter what small noises the kittens make.

One big reason why is, say it with me, collateral. Believe it or not, the FOMC actually provides some useful information in the latest minutes on that very subject:

"In the Treasury market, following several consecutive days of deteriorating conditions, market participants reported an acute decline in market liquidity. A number of primary dealers found it especially difficult to make markets in off-the-run Treasury securities and reported that this segment of the market had ceased to function effectively. This disruption in intermediation was attributed, in part, to sales of off-the-run Treasury securities and flight-to-quality flows into the most liquid, on-the-run Treasury securities".

I’ve tried many, many times over the years to succinctly describe an acute collateral shortage, and I dare say nothing I’ve ever written in my time watching repo and collateral markets comes close to that passage.

For those unfamiliar, on-the-run (OTR) securities are those of the newest vintage. US Treasury securities or others which were just issued; in the case of UST’s, just auctioned. They are the most liquid instruments available on Earth, and therefore highly prized as repo collateral (all bills are OTR, while only a fraction of notes and bonds are).

When the next auction takes place, the note or bond which used to be OTR becomes OFR (off-the-run). These are still perceived to be safe instruments, but not nearly as liquid (potentially) as their OTR counterparts – even in the same maturity bucket. Link

And what was the Fed primarily scooping up in outright purchase operations (POMO) from 17/10/19 through to 10/03/20? Exactly, TBills.

by Dairy farmer joe | 9th Apr 20, 4:21pm 1586406075

Rabobank have just told Dairy Clients to budget on $5.60 milk payout for 20/21 season,range could be between $4.80 & $6.50 depending on many factors.

by Grumpy | 9th Apr 20, 4:43pm 1586407429

Yippee more pain down on the farm!!!! I'm picking $6 plus due to the low NZ$ that will happen when NZ gets hit hard by the second or third wave of Covid-19, in the meantime the NZ$ will likely strengthen as we look like we are gifted compared to the rest of the world with our outstanding control of Covid-19.

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 5:39pm 1586410751

what is your break even? I'm going to be sailing close to the wind this year.

by Dairy farmer joe | 9th Apr 20, 6:34pm 1586414069

Hi Aj,have you had enough rain yet-a payout without a 6 in front of it is non profitable for most farmers (Dairy NZ).Have you been able to move some stock through the works,it painfully slow here in Southland,alot of cull cows,lambs,old ewes,even prime beef need to be killed before winter,as there is limited winter feed & no growth.

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 6:47pm 1586414821

well it rained today, I got 5 mm, that's enough to get the grass moving after the last week of showers adding another 6 mm, if I dig a hole it's dust down at 2". I'm noticing very few livestock trucks on the road, none on our road today.

A lot of lambs went to the deep sth from up here, truckloads, I mean thousands and thousands.
I live in an area that gets mild winters, I can grow grass all year, just need to give my young grass a chance to get out of the ground first and hopefully no frosts, definitely a cold wind out tonight.

C/O was saying lots of winter grazing is falling through, which must be so frustrating. Hopefully you get a better winter than last year. This has been an interesting time, people seem resilient ,probably due to the good prices of the past few years.

by Cowpat | 9th Apr 20, 4:37pm 1586407050

Treasury out with its monthly economic indicators. Special topic Covid 19.

https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/mei/monthly-economic-indicators-m…
Fairly standard fare

by Rosenstein | 9th Apr 20, 4:58pm 1586408291

Just looking at those monthly figures for visitors (~320,000 per month), and annual migration numbers (~50,000 per year). Poof, gone up in smoke. That is incredible, just that change in population dynamics. I really feel we are some islands in the South Pacific now. One thing: The import of precursor for the manufacture of methamphetamine must be getting hard to obtain. Maybe everyone is going to switch back to weed.

by waymad | 9th Apr 20, 4:49pm 1586407768

Keeping with the 'quaint' theme, re Insurance (pun, sorry, it's beer o'clock), the whole thread here is worth reading for the detailed explanations of how it actually works. Three key points from the thread:

NZ is viewed as a market unable to self-insure. So re-insurance via the big majors is the only way to secure coverage at a reasonable cost.
'Insurance' as viewed by the Great Unwashed is a retail store-front only in NZ - the wholesale end - the reinsurers - do the heavy lifting.
It's highly unlikely that a monopoly Gubmint standalone insurance scheme could secure better deals than can the existing players, however much Hopium the proponents imbibe.

RTWThread....

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 5:27pm 1586410063

What's Buffet looking to buy - an insurance operation on the cheap?
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Joins Global Debt Splurge

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 5:01pm 1586408510

I have a friend who has 12 rentals, he told me four of them have stopped paying rent.

I wonder how many landlords find themselves in a similar predicament?

by frazz | 9th Apr 20, 5:07pm 1586408846

Does he want a bailout from the Government?

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 5:08pm 1586408918

Hell Yes, he is essential.

by MadMax | 9th Apr 20, 5:37pm 1586410641

Gotta carefully pick your tenants and give them below-market rents.
I like to manage the local ones myself, saves property manager rort

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 5:56pm 1586411776

this time could be different
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/over-30-us-renters-didnt-pay-april-…

by Korki | 9th Apr 20, 6:07pm 1586412456

We have tenants, mid thirties, two kids, second generation beneficiaries been with us for about 7 years, never known them to have job. They just told us they are having trouble paying, can we work something out. Wait, didn't you just get a pay rise?

We did help them out, but feel they are just trying it on, because they can.

And I'm not being unreasonable, they pay $200 per week for a three bedroom home and that includes lawns and hedges - we could easily get $350 per week for it not including lawns etc.

FYI I'm not angry about it, I find it funny if anything, because I was expecting it.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:21pm 1586413296

The good news is that they (tenants) won't be called upon by the crown to pay regressive tax to fund the state transfer payment to enable them.

by Theoracle | 9th Apr 20, 7:24pm 1586417091

Had a tenant trying it on too for a discount but they forgot they'd just confirmed by email they hadn't lost their job or anything. They just wanted a discount.

It was already discounted, $275/ wk including lawns and water instead of $310. Sigh.

We've always done same: manage things very closely and keep rents lower with few increases.

Expect a rash of rentals on the market mainly in view of proposed legislative change. Only tricky thing is landlords wanting to sell with fixed term tenants in place. Could make things difficult to find a buyer other than other investors.

And another question going around for me is... just out of interest, do people think after this latest debacle banks will from now on have to limit their lending? As in, actually, seriously once and for all not be able to lend like they have??

by Fritz | 9th Apr 20, 7:16pm 1586416602

12 properties. Frankly that's obscene.

by paashaas | 9th Apr 20, 8:03pm 1586419393

The only obscene thing here is your envy.

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 10:10pm 1586427030

How many do you own paashaas - it’s ok, you can brag a bit if your ego feels the need?

by Fritz | 9th Apr 20, 11:57pm 1586433422

Piss off.
I have no desire to have 1 rental property let alone 12.
Dick.
Our economy is screwed because of speculators like him and you.
You are probably pissing yourself with fear at the imminent collapse of your *portfolio*

by CN | 9th Apr 20, 10:07pm 1586426856

There are a number of residential property investors that own a large number of properties:

1) Another commenter on here owns 9 residential properties.
2) I know of property mentor who own 14 properties,
3) Another property mentor another one owns in excess of 30. Their son and daughter own possibly another 10 or more between them.
4) Another property mentor and his family (parents, siblings) might own 15 or more
5) Another property investor owns about 12 investment properties in Auckland
6) Another person I know owns around 15 investment properties in NZ.
7) Another professional property investor in the Hawkes Bay area owns a reported 76
8) Another professional property investor couple in the Hawkes bay area own 120 or more I think.
9) I heard an Auckland based property investor owns 300 or investment properties.
10) I know of an expat Kiwi who owns about 50 properties in NZ

Most property investors own 1-3 properties.

This has resulted in the concentration of debt. Remember that 8% of households owe 40% of household debt.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/104323467/reserve-bank-says-8-pe…

The key question is how leveraged are they, and are they able to hold on if a large percentage of their tenants stop paying or move out.

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 10:13pm 1586427231

I personally, for the benefit of future FHBs, and the quality of society we should have in NZ, hope they crash and burn. The greed is ridiculous. Using equity in one home to buy another is a Ponzi scheme in my opinion. Eventually someone gets loaded up with the debt and can’t pay.

by Fritz | 9th Apr 20, 11:58pm 1586433532

Don't be so envious. (Sarc)
I too hope the greedy bastards crash and burn.

by CN | 9th Apr 20, 10:16pm 1586427413

And that excludes high profile media property promoters like Ashley Church, Tony Alexander, Bindi Norwell, Andrew King, etc

And non resident owners who own large numbers of properties in NZ.

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:52pm 1586433157

Bollicks, nothing wrong with it!

by ham n eggs | 10th Apr 20, 7:18am 1586459895

Passive income and leverage
It's what got us in this mess

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:45pm 1586432733

Dont worry Im sure its all dandy in Christchurch ay theman??????

by Wrong John | 9th Apr 20, 5:21pm 1586409684

Thanks guys. I needed a good laugh.

by Petey | 9th Apr 20, 5:22pm 1586409766

Usually in an economic downturn most commodities take a hit primary products not excepted . Rabobanks predictions look ominous for a heavily indebted farming sector . That would lead to serious concerns for the banks I think

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 5:31pm 1586410297

It's like we are sailing into the unknown.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVIMXGgWkAMlNYS?format=png&name=900x900

by MadMax | 9th Apr 20, 5:40pm 1586410819

Interesting/terrifying graph!
WW2 certainly improved the graph

by scarfie | 9th Apr 20, 6:08pm 1586412480

New Zealand hit 35%

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 5:55pm 1586411711

Wow - almost need a new scale for that chart

by Andrewj | 9th Apr 20, 6:01pm 1586412086

Inflation expectations
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVIODr6XsAIb-T8?format=jpg&name=medium

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 5:37pm 1586410657

FPH looking like a bubble...P/E 70. Looks like its a due a decent drop at some point...bit like RBD last year - although that has had a remarkable rally of late.

by Becnz | 9th Apr 20, 5:49pm 1586411352

Job listings keep on falling on Tradme for Christchurch now down to 873 from 1985 at start of March at this rate we may hit 500 range by May.

by Becnz | 9th Apr 20, 5:52pm 1586411579

House listings will be good to watch once lockdown lifted .
I am picking listing numbers will double creating a massive over supply with very few buyers wanting to pay anywhere near what people will be asking.
Agents may have to do some work for vendors now to get a sale let alone asking price.

by Squishy | 9th Apr 20, 6:12pm 1586412745

Lots more people driving about this afternoon when I was out for my run. I wonder if we'll see transmission rates pick up again in a week or two as people start to take more risks and venture out.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:25pm 1586413551

Easter shopping frenzy?

by Squishy | 9th Apr 20, 6:34pm 1586414088

Let's hope it's shopping and not mucking about.

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:42pm 1586414545

That too!!!

by Lapun | 9th Apr 20, 6:27pm 1586413631

If their windows were shut they ought to be safe from runners puffing out Covid-19. The police should stop any runner who is out of breath. Judging by the 66 infected at Marist college cluster presumably by a single source it is quite possible for just one case in the wrong place to turn our transmission rate up.

by frazz | 9th Apr 20, 7:33pm 1586417592

I think if you are running and out of breath you would then stop and walk?

by Audaxes | 9th Apr 20, 6:17pm 1586413048

The Police Credit Union has cut most of its key savings rates today, almost halving them. But they are all still way better than equivalent bank rates.

Generous, given the RBNZ cut official rates in half twice the other day.

by FCM | 9th Apr 20, 6:54pm 1586415253

Neighbor's gave us ok go do a bit of shooting tonight.. sorry jacinda you need to announce three people won't be getting a visit from Easter Bunny on Sunday. Should fill in 30minutes if press conference.

by Rosenstein | 9th Apr 20, 7:49pm 1586418592

You got the rabbits or the people?

by Becnz | 9th Apr 20, 6:55pm 1586415336

Interesting story on One News food banks overrun and it is high rent costs that most people are saying that is problem.
If the food banks stopped giving out the free food then the prices of rentals would have to drop.
It is crazy that so many people have to rely on food banks.
The sooner housing costs drop the more money we will have for food and other areas of the economy.

by Fritz | 9th Apr 20, 7:18pm 1586416687

Rents will be coming down, no two ways about that.

by THE MAN 2 | 9th Apr 20, 9:56pm 1586426215

Rubbish, rents won’t be dropping from our end.
They may drop in areas that have landlords that are over leveraged and are desperate to just have any one in their property.
Mum and dad landlords may drop their rents but professional landlords that have well presented tenanted property won’t be needing to!

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 10:08pm 1586426910

Do landlords set rents or does the market? Because you’ve been telling us the market does on the way up - so is that not true on the way down?

by THE MAN 2 | 9th Apr 20, 11:41pm 1586432492

IO, we set the rent that we want on our rentals!
We don’t generally worry about what other people are renting theirs out for, we tend to receive above the average of what the MBIE say, and very often above the high end.
If tenants think that we are advertising too high, they don’t need to bother looking, but most of the time we seem to receive multiple applications for them.
Yes it is going to be interesting when most of our contracts expire early next year as to what rents are being achieved, however we will be just fine.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Apr 20, 9:30am 1586467803

So landlords set rents do they? Do you set capital values as well for property?

by Sluggy | 10th Apr 20, 9:36am 1586468191

Airbnb

by CN | 11th Apr 20, 3:35pm 1586576125

"we set the rent that we want on our rentals!"

An example to clarify the difference between IO's point and your comment above.

1) You have a 3BDRM house in your area that is currently vacant and you want to rent it out.
2) Nearby vacant comparable properties are being rented out at say $400/ per week.
3) Could you still get a tenant if you were asking say, $700 / per week or $1,000 per week because that is what you want?

The point that IO is making, is that the rent that you set is within the context of nearby rentals. If in the above example the asking rent was $700 / week - $1,000/ per week but there were no applicants at that rental price, then in order to attract a tenant, the landlord would need to lower the rent to levels of other similar places (market rental).

Same point with property market prices. You may want to sell your investment property and want a sale price of (and ask for) $10,000,000, but if nearby comparable properties are selling at $400,000, then a property owner will likely be unable to sell at the price that they want, and need to lower the price which they are willing to accept.

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:58pm 1586433493

They may not drop their rents but they will have to endure long periods with no tenants if they stick with that strategy, A bird in the hand is worth......

by Fritz | 10th Apr 20, 12:00am 1586433652

Jesus you are full of shit.
You have no idea do you as to what this virus is doing to our economy.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Apr 20, 5:25am 1586453144

It wont be as bad as you imagine. Pretty sure some of your comments breach the guidelines!

by Independent_Observer | 10th Apr 20, 9:35am 1586468106

Probably breach the guidelines but have to say I agree with him/her.

by Miguel | 10th Apr 20, 8:32am 1586464324

Yikes, your head is buried pretty deep in the sand right now. The loss of tourism could see 10% of our economy (1 million visitiors) fall to a trickle. 35% of jobs are being subsidised by the government during the lockdown. When the lockdown ends, and the subsidy is over, many of those jobs will be gone (largely around tourism).

As unemployment rises that net immigration of 50k a year that has driven up rental rates will, at best, fall to a trickle. At worst, we will see the 200,000 people on short term working visas leaving the country.

And you think rental prices will hold up?

by Independent_Observer | 10th Apr 20, 9:33am 1586468017

I'd say that vast majority of landlords in NZ haven't done high school economics nor any tertiary study in economics. They have no idea of what is going on, other than everything the last 30 years have worked out for them so are suffering from severe confirmation bias (everything I do has turned to gold, so will continue to do so in the future). The next 12-24 months could be quite the surprise for them. Could be some financial hardship involved, but might be good for their personal/character development.

by Kate | 9th Apr 20, 6:59pm 1586415582

Yes, excellent support for the establishment of a Conservation Corps;

https://www.eds.org.nz/assets/pdf/Letter%20to%20PM%20Final%20200409.pdf…

This could be a massive opportunity to re-employ the ex-tourism labour sector.

by Fritz | 9th Apr 20, 7:06pm 1586415978

for sure
for Shaw

by Lapun | 10th Apr 20, 5:27am 1586453237

Most of the suggestions are reasonable and the basic intent of stopping degradation of our environment is admirable. But it drops into modern ill considered jargonese with its ""and that marginalised groups are at the forefront of designing and receiving the assistance they deserve "". Who are the groups pushed to the margins of NZ society - well an obvious couple are prisoners and the elderly. Am I entitled to design the assistance I deserve? If I am will I be at the forefront - presumably just ahead of the Prime Minister and all elected officials. I suspect the next generation will read this kind of stuff and cringe.
The reference to the Zero Carbon Act doesn't mention the very high anticipated costs and that was before what is most likely to be a signiicant recession. A worthy aim but it needs to be recosted before the govt commits to it.

by Kate | 10th Apr 20, 8:50am 1586465449

I'd have interpreted 'marginalised' as meaning those who did not benefit from the 'rock star economy' of the past.

by Lapun | 10th Apr 20, 9:24am 1586467474

That's the problem - deliberately vague language that ticks feel good boxes but when analysed it comes down to the writers being either patronising or empty headed. I'm not complaining about the basic message but how it is expressed and what they tack on to it. At least it didn't fill every paragraph with last year's fashionable but hard to define words 'diversity' and 'vibrant'. They needed an editor - reduce it to one page of A4 with just sufficient points that they will all be remembered; it felt like a letter written by a committee.
At least your marginalised is clearer - children in poor households; the severely physically or mentally handicapped; drug addicts; the homeless. Our past economy was not good for them but I still do not see how they can be "at the forefront of designing ..." anything.

by Petey | 9th Apr 20, 7:15pm 1586416532

Good work FCM rabbit pie perhaps ! Probably only got the staff easter bunny still on track no doubt !
Food banks are an enigma to me always wonder how many are really in need but it is really sad they are neccessary at all in nz somethings wrong but cant put my finger on it exactly

by THE MAN 2 | 9th Apr 20, 9:54pm 1586426044

Fritz, what is obscene about 12 rentals?
Hate to think what you would say about the no. we have got??

Andrew, 12 rentals and 4 have stopped paying rent?
What area are these rentals in?
We have got a helluva lot more than that and we have not had a single one not pay the full weekly rent yet!!!
He clearly has not been very choosey in who he let rent his properties!
If tenants do not pay, they will have a debt to be paid back and will never own a house ever due to their debt going on record, and also they will struggle getting another rental!!!!!!

by Independent_Observer | 9th Apr 20, 10:06pm 1586426767

What a loser eh TM2...he only owns 12! Pathetic..

by THE MAN 2 | 9th Apr 20, 11:48pm 1586432890

Where did I say that he/she was a loser for having 12 properties?
I say good on theM!
You stated that it was obscene that someone owned 12 properties and I wondered what word you would use for someone that had a lot more than 12?
To anyone that wants to improve their financial position rather than sit back and want to be reliant on the country for their lifestyle, I say good on them!

by Solid_Granite | 10th Apr 20, 7:09am 1586459367

TM2, theres a housing shortage in NZ. And extremely high house prices relative to income. It's very hard for first home buyers to buy their own house to live in. There are people out there angry at people like you exploiting that for your own financial gain. Thats all.

by THE MAN 2 | 10th Apr 20, 8:27am 1586464041

We certainly don’t exploit anything for financial gain.
We always buy property under it’s true value so we are not forcing prices up!
It is all about the decisions we make as to whether you own your own home or rent in most cases.
We started with nothing and worked very hard to get where we are today.
The market prices in ChCh are going to hold up well as we haven’t had the price spikes over recently years and as I have maintained it has been the most stable market in NZ.

by Independent_Observer | 10th Apr 20, 9:26am 1586467619

TM2 - you're a great example of why we're probably headed for a disaster with respect to real estate. Appreciate your posts.

by Sluggy | 10th Apr 20, 9:39am 1586468391

Stable apart from that wee shake the other day.

by waymad | 10th Apr 20, 2:22pm 1586485371

None of us get out of bed for anything less than a 5.7

by Independent_Observer | 10th Apr 20, 9:28am 1586467704

That was sarcasm, but yes good for them, but not good for our society. But if its all about me and now, then fantastic.

by Fritz | 10th Apr 20, 12:04am 1586433854

Are all your tenants people with bullet proof jobs? Are they all teachers, doctors and nurses?

by THE MAN 2 | 10th Apr 20, 8:30am 1586464257

No. I wouldn’t say they all have bullet proof jobs and some may well lose them or have reduced hours.
However in most cases there are more than one source of income and confident that we won’t lose much if any.
At worst there is a couple of grand of bond that can be used when the tenants move out but don’t think that will happen

by theglc | 9th Apr 20, 11:07pm 1586430439

when you have jobless claims going through the roof and the stockmarket climbing at the same time tells you how detached from reality stocks are at present but dont worry sooner or later they will understand what a recession means

by bw | 10th Apr 20, 9:34am 1586468047

Lots of opinions and complicated answer to resolve what we face.
For me, the answer is pretty 'simple'.
Whatever amount of debt we have as a country after we get through the crisis,much of it is in the wrong place.
We will end up with huge Public Debt, and the place to get it from to repay it ( to keep the economic scales somewhat balanced - or % rate will go through the roof!) is from the current 'stock' of Private Debt.
Within private Debt there is Productive Debt and Non- Productive Debt.
We need to encourage the first of those and discourage the latter.
Where is the biggest 'store' of our Private Debt? Property mortgages, by far. They're going to have to 'give back' their productivity capacity to those in the Private Sector to allow them to grow and slowly repay - over decades - the Public Debt, as businesses thrive and pay more tax.
Those who will get 'caught' with 1, 10, 100 rental properties will be 'quarantined' and protected with their stock by even lower mortgage rates and extended repayment terms - 50 years mortgages etc. New mortgages will be granted for far less $, and purchase prices will have to fall to accommodate them. Rents will fall.
Don't expect to get a mortgage for a residential property for anything other than your sole place of residence, and don't expect to get it at a rate that is comparable to anyone being productive in the housing sector that is actually building new stock.

In short. We already have the debt we need to rebuild. It's just in the wrong place.

by Zachary Smith | 10th Apr 20, 10:24am 1586471061

..rental properties will be 'quarantined' and protected..

Hopefully quite a few people took my advice a couple of years ago and endeavoured to achieve a state of positive gearing. There was quite a lot of writing on the wall and enough time to prepare. For those who were a little tardy the reduction in mortgage interest rates may save many of them. A lot of rental properties will be making very modest sums or just breaking even for their owners for a few years.

by Henry_Tull | 10th Apr 20, 9:54am 1586469252

Here is Epoch Times working on the origin of the virus.
Hint. The Wuhan wet markets didn't, seem to have bats.

https://youtu.be/XMJ0EmMfb3U

by Casual Observer | 10th Apr 20, 12:24pm 1586478259

The Government can not be held liable for the damage caused by Psa, despite letting the disease into the country, the Court of Appeal has found......The Court of Appeal has allowed the Crown's appeal on the basis that the Crown has a statutory immunity precluding liability for the alleged negligent acts or omissions," its decision said.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/120940840/court-of-appeal-rule…

Will be interesting to see if this case does go to the Supreme Court and if so, how it rules.

by Henry_Tull | 10th Apr 20, 6:40pm 1586500819

Todays moh presentation was poor.
Unable to answer questions.
Not knowing numbers - like how many tests completed, doing more or less over the weekend.
Gets caught out about knowing of the mooloo hospital +ve, via reporter question & staff got +ve after removing PPE.
And a new distribution supply chain for PPE to frontline staff starting next week (while maintaining there are no problems). Grrr.

Gives insite as to how removed Wellington is to the patient cases.
Confirms that is DHBs doing the heavy lifting, making decisions.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-media-update-…