What happened Thursday

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; minor rate cuts, strong NZGB demand, sharp fall in credit card activity, hunting delayed, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

23rd Apr 20, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has taken -5 bps from most of its TD rate offers.

$2.6 BLN CHASES $800 MLN
There was strong demand for today's three tranches of Government bond offerings. The $350 mln offered for the April 2025 bond drew bids of $1.065 bln. The $250 mln offered for the April 2027 bond drew bids worth $1.14 bln, and the $200 mln offered for the April 2033 bond drew offers of $396 mln. Yields achieved were all very low, being 0.47%, 0.70% and 1.19% respectively.

PUTTING AWAY THE PLASTIC
Credit card balances fell -5.3% year-on-year as at March with almost -$½ bln of that fall coming between February and March. These balances are back to levels last seen in September 2017. Banks also cut back their limits slightly by nearly -$100 mln. It just seems cardholders lowered their exposures much faster. Spending on NZ-issued credit cards fell even faster, down -7.2%, year-on-year. Spending on overseas issued cards crashed -25% as tourists fled back to their home countries. More here.

HUNTING CHANGES
Hunters will be able to hunt on private land with special restrictions when New Zealand moves to Level 3, as long as they have the landholder’s permission and stick to the rules. Hunting on public conservation land will remain off limits. The start of the duck hunting season is being postponed from Saturday 2 May to start on the second weekend after that date that is decided for when New Zealand moves to Alert Level 2. The season will also end later,

UPDATE: CAN YOU HELP?
We are being read far more these days than pre-lockdown. And we have seen our Comment volumes jump, with many days well over 600, some days over 800. These volumes are overwhelming us. Rather than turn Comments off or limiting them in other ways, we are asking registered readers for assistance in identifying comments that breach our Commenting Standards. A simple "Report" button is now active on each comment.

LOCAL UPDATE
There are still 1451 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with no new cases today on a net basis and less than yesterday's +6 increase. Sixteen people have died, two more than yesterday, all geriatric patients. There are now 8 people in hospital with the disease, with one in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up over 73% and rising.

GLOBAL UPDATE
Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,626,300 and up +62,000 this time yesterday which is an unchanged rate from yesterday. Now, just over 32% of all cases globally are in the US, which is unchanged in a day, and they are up +16,000 since this time yesterday to 840,900. This is a slower rate of increase. Just over 9% of all US cases have recovered so far, which is no improvement. Infection rates in Turkey are rising very quickly and are now more than in China. Russia's infection rates are also about to pass China's. But China itself is facing a second major outbreak in Harbin City in the north of the country near Western Russia and Russia is the main risk for China. Australia's data is still at just over 6500 cases and little-changed over the past week; their recovery rate to 63% and also unchanged in more than a week. Global deaths are now at 183,300 with very variable reporting across jurisdictions.

EQUITY UPDATE
After a firm opening, the NZX50 has slid to be just +0.5% higher on the day. The ASX200 is down -0.3%. Shanghai has opened flat while Hong Kong (+0.4%) and Tokyo (+0.7%) are faring slightly better. The S&P500 ended its session earlier up +2.3% while EU bourses rose by about half that. The NYSE rise has been attributed to a rise in the oil price to US$14/bbl. But the rise gained no momentum from there and is well in the 'extreme pain' territory for producers.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Yesterday, swap rates basically held the whole curve even if slightly soft. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant change. The 90-day bank bill rate is down another -1 bp to 0.32%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is firmer, up +3 bps to 0.86%. The China Govt 10yr is basically unchanged again at 2.57%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is up +1 bp at 0.90%. The UST 10yr is down -3 bps from this morning to 0.65% but that is up +5 bps from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has hovered little-changed at 59.4 USc after the overnight shift lower. Against the Aussie we are much softer at 94.2 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 54.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 has slipped slightly to 65.7.

BITCOIN FIRM
The price of Bitcoin is up +3.7% to US$7,136 but all of that rise came last night. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart (including bitcoin) is here.

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108 Comments

by bw | 23rd Apr 20, 4:07pm 1587614829

The death toll is about to soar!
Stir crazy hunters blasting away at anything and everything, including each other ("Was that a duck or a deer or Dave?"); surfers drowning after not having flexed their muscles for 4 weeks ....
A good time to remain at home, methinks!

by Homer | 23rd Apr 20, 4:09pm 1587614990

What a ridiculous comment !

by Fegus Woodward | 23rd Apr 20, 4:14pm 1587615240

Stuff.co level

by Kezza R | 23rd Apr 20, 4:23pm 1587615825

Hot off the Labour PR press machine.

by bw | 23rd Apr 20, 4:28pm 1587616129

Perhaps spoofing isn't your thing?
On the other hand, Time will tell.....
(NB: Happens quite regularly in 'normal' times "... the third hunter to be killed in the bush in less than three weeks." https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3402113 )

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 4:32pm 1587616378

https://www.watersafe.org.nz/research/statistics/

Auckland region alone - 18 preventable drownings. Looks like swimmers are far more stupid than hunters

by frazz | 23rd Apr 20, 4:55pm 1587617735

Swimmers don't kill other swimmers - doh

by Lapun | 23rd Apr 20, 5:16pm 1587618970

Three kinds of swimming death:
1. Kids = sad
2. Drunk young adults = stupid
3. Elderly adults = better than dying in bed; a good death at the right time. Over 65 - do not resuscitate or even bother rescuing we know what we are doing.

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 5:26pm 1587619570

Didn't say they did. But I'll entertain you. What about when someone goes into rescue a poor swimmer and drowns as well?

by frazz | 23rd Apr 20, 5:45pm 1587620737

Yes last week a swimmer eyed up another swimmer...drowned them and then told authoritites sorry he mistook the other swimmer for a fish.

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 5:52pm 1587621155

Clutching at straws now. The intention of the swimmer is moot. The fact remains that one swimmer died due to the actions of the other.

by frazz | 23rd Apr 20, 6:15pm 1587622545

Nope...both swimmers and Hunters know that their chosen activity is dangerous. Show me one example of a swimmer mistaking another swimmer for a octopus and drowning them? 1 example...come on...

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 6:36pm 1587623767

Your having trouble staying on topic, a clear indication that I'm in fact right that swimmer's actions have caused the death of another. Just admit you lost and move on. Your anti hunter sentiment is showing again

by Kezza R | 23rd Apr 20, 7:37pm 1587627463

The original comment was BS.
For someone to say that they have zero understanding of hunting / guns or anything to do with it.

by Battinz | 23rd Apr 20, 5:24pm 1587619454

You reckon the same number of people went swimming as hunting?

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 5:35pm 1587620136

You reckon the average swimmer is aware of and understands the safety risks associated with swimming in the sea, to the same level a hunter would be educated on the safety risks of their chosen pursuit?

by Kezza R | 23rd Apr 20, 4:13pm 1587615180

WOW that is staggering BS.

by Alpeg | 23rd Apr 20, 7:10pm 1587625815

Yep your'e definitely onto it. Stay safe, stay at home and rot away

by Ralph | 23rd Apr 20, 4:05pm 1587614738

Thanks David.

by Glitzy | 23rd Apr 20, 4:12pm 1587615167

NZH story about the big tourism operator shutting up shop. 300 jobs to go. Many in the same boat I guess.
Chatted with one builder today who noted gonna be big delays as a result of not being able to have multiple tradesmen on site to conclude projects (all separate bubbles) and reduced staffing as he's expecting a lot of layoffs.

by Becnz | 23rd Apr 20, 8:00pm 1587628842

70-80 percent of tourism jobs will be gone.
Approx 50 percent of cafes and restaurants and similar amount of retail will also be on the chopping blocks.
I know this is bad but this is just what happens when you stop all international tourism and shut down everything for a month ot more.
What we need now is our leaders to be brave and focus on a new future and not put all our eggs in 2 baskets tourism and milk.
Also we are asking for trouble with bringing thousands of Kiwis/visa holders back to NZ so quickly.
Just today 1500 from India in the next week they are high risk CV19 carriers which may undo the lasts 4 weeks lockdown if not done properly i.e they should be in 4 week forced isolation but they may only be in for 2 weeks ????

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 5:20pm 1587619204

Yeah it will get ugly. Worse than most people think.
Here's hoping we are 'only' on Level 3 for 2 weeks. Go for 4 weeks and it will be complete carnage.

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 5:26pm 1587619612

It's going to be carnage regardless

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 6:01pm 1587621691

Yeah, but there's a carnage spectrum

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 6:07pm 1587622042

Yeap and the government's actions over the coming weeks will determine just how far down the spectrum we go. This is merely the opening scene of what's to unfold

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 6:27pm 1587623262

Indeed.
Surely they will move to level 2 after 2 weeks. Surely?

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 6:44pm 1587624293

The way the infection is tracking, we will be at level 2. It'll be the months following that will reveal the economic damage and I don't think it's going to be pretty

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 6:51pm 1587624717

It would be good if they could make a call next week and say 1 week at level 3, then down to 2. Every week counts.1 week could be make or break for some businesses.
It would also be a morale boost.
Doubt they will, though.

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 7:03pm 1587625387

Yea for sure. I hope they do take that kind of approach. I just don't see a way out of this without some serious hurt for the middle income earner / SME operator

by Pacman_46 | 23rd Apr 20, 8:01pm 1587628895

The key is buying as much time as possible now, and therefore increasing confidence that there is no community transmission. If we can nail that, then a drop to level 2 wouldn't be far away. Watching the new cases drop day by day (all direct contact or known contact) fills me with hope!

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Apr 20, 5:50pm 1587621017

Yip - I see they're expecting 20% unemployment in the US in the next few months. So we're looking at a Great Depression type scenario on our hands. Question is whether we can bounce out of it quickly or not, or whether it takes years to turn around.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-covid-weekly-initial-jobless…

by sharetrader | 23rd Apr 20, 7:00pm 1587625213

new businesses are starting to form already, a lot of tourism operators have got together to form a shopping and delivery service
https://tomydoor.kiwi/online-grocery-shopping/about-us

by Pacman_46 | 23rd Apr 20, 8:05pm 1587629148

I'd imagine anyone able to get into furniture removal would make a killing over the next 6+ months. Hard work, but should be plenty of it for all sorts of reasons...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by PocketAces | 23rd Apr 20, 10:00pm 1587636028

The thing we all need to get our heads around is that tourism is dead in the water for the foreseeable future, everywhere in the world, it will not be because of anything this government has done or is going to do. Air travel will be far too expensive for just about everyone, due to the need to social distance. Jobs are going to be affected everywhere in the world, going tiki touring around the world is not going to be on anyone's to do list. It's gone. It will affect more than just traditional tourist towns, we will need to learn to live without it, basically.

by Ahuhyeah | 23rd Apr 20, 6:27pm 1587623244

Heard a whisper today from a reasonably reliable source of 1,500 new applications for unemployment benefit in a week in a provincial city. 2% of the pop.

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 6:30pm 1587623446

Rotovegas

by Mark Hubbard 1965 | 23rd Apr 20, 4:33pm 1587616438

Also today Argosy Property Ltd just revalued all its commercial property assets up 3.6% (that's UP) and by $62 million. Biggest gains on industrial, then office, as expected, small falls for retail.

That's, um, gutsy. But I guess this is a low interest environment, and building by building.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/352107

by Dumb itch | 23rd Apr 20, 4:39pm 1587616766

Hmm, pump and dump on the NZX?

by Mark Hubbard 1965 | 23rd Apr 20, 4:52pm 1587617520

Industrial, esp, but good office (govt tenant) properties have good futures, as does the best retail - people will always want to go out, and hospitality has to be out (I can't wait for restaurants again, I'm over being stuck at home). The only thing destroying value is this damned lockdown: once that is off, commercial property is still a good investment given we're stuck with low interest rates for years or decades.

I also think 'paradigm' change is much overrated. There will be a saturation point for online retail sales. And if you you have family peeps working for you, with kids at home, etc, then employers are not getting better productivity with staff working at home ... look how many are on Twitter or in here.

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 5:22pm 1587619328

@Mark Hubbard , I read the Press release , I was a shareholder a while back .

They have left the door open for Deloitte to reject the valuation , which they will likely do , given the new normal

I would suggest that Argosy are probably fudging the numbers by changing the basis of valuation , by using an alternative methodology , such as replacement cost adjustments ,or free cash flow basis given the cost of borrowing has collapsed .

We really dont know , the press release tells us very little .

Either way , I would stay well clear

by Smalltown | 23rd Apr 20, 7:08pm 1587625706

Indeed, the Hisco valuation shows theres quite a bit of ah "flexibility" in prices that can be achieved after working out what the client wants.

by middleman1 | 23rd Apr 20, 7:38pm 1587627480

Heh, yeah. But a bit riskier to fiddle the valuation for a building that is long term tenanted with a reasonably predictable (well until recently !) rental yield.

by wirehunt | 23rd Apr 20, 6:58pm 1587625126

You assume low interest rates. We'll see.

by middleman1 | 23rd Apr 20, 7:34pm 1587627257

Mark. Developed economy saturation point for online retail sales is believed to be about 23%, from memory. NZ currently about 15% and rising. ARG is mostly concentrated in growth areas of NZ, not over exposed to wellington and has a modest retail component. I own them because they have a tidy portfolio and I like to have a spread across the top tier REITs but their share price has been flattish for some time, outperformed by their peers. Note that the current revaluation was a 'desk top' only exercise, more downside to come one would think.

by Dumb itch | 23rd Apr 20, 4:36pm 1587616588

Does anyone else find the aus covid stats odd?

by printer8 | 23rd Apr 20, 4:50pm 1587617445

For a start, my understanding is that it only those who actually die in hospital. Those who die at home or in a rest home are not included.
I stand to be corrected.

by sharetrader | 23rd Apr 20, 7:04pm 1587625449

they only count positive tests, we include probables where a doctor has the opinion its covid without a test

by Masher | 24th Apr 20, 7:51am 1587671492

Perhaps, but how do you fudge death numbers? In that respect less people are passing away per capita in Australia than NZ.

Hindsight might show when comparing NZ to Australia that NZ overeacted, especially if Australia maintains a lower death rate per capita.

Id suggest thats something to mull over while eating your KFC tonight, but then i remembered you cant get KFC in New Zealand at present, nor anything else. The whole country is shut down. Ill order for everyone tonight here in Australia (Im getting wicked wings).

There will be a few people choking on their pride if history shows Australia reacted better to the pandemic and inevitable economic storm in 2020 than NZ.

by Clementé | 23rd Apr 20, 4:58pm 1587617934

Wicked wings are a great choice

by Masher | 23rd Apr 20, 5:06pm 1587618362

Theres been arguments in this household over wicked wings before.

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 5:28pm 1587619719

Nothing worse than finding someone has raided the leftover wings

by The Lark | 23rd Apr 20, 6:57pm 1587625025

How do you fudge numbers? Easily, that's how. NZ 2019, average number of deaths per month = 2855. Who knows that off the top of their heads? Road toll ave=29 per month for 2019 year. Try get stats for deaths jan,feb and march 2020, they are not published. Increase in influenza and pneumonia deaths, well we have no idea, and covid 19 deaths can easily be hidden in those figures. If the national focus is on covid 19, and all dept of stats figures are not being released, then it doesn't in fact get much easier to do a fudge. Like in UK, a covid 19 death is registered as such if they tested positive, and died in the hospital. Only an analysis of monthly deaths can show if there has been a statistically significant jump in deaths, and even that is open to interpretation.

by JimboJones | 23rd Apr 20, 7:29pm 1587626988

our death count is so low it’s almost statistically irrelevant. For example if one resthome hadn’t been infected our death rate would be significantly lower.

by sharetrader | 23rd Apr 20, 8:30pm 1587630655

they have a cluster just started in a nursing home with the fourth death today, so like us it seems the place that needs protection the most as once it gets in it is devastating
https://www.smh.com.au/coronavirus-pandemic
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-australia-reco…

by positivelywallstreet | 23rd Apr 20, 4:58pm 1587617888

They use a different methodology to us, we quote Imperial College and they are like the UK and, I suspect, follow the School of Tropical Medicine. But I accept it may be more complex than that.
I noticed our total cases curve is very like China’s whereas the Aus is different and slightly more like the UK.
There has been discussion on the EU Referendum website
Hmmmm

by Foyle | 23rd Apr 20, 8:34pm 1587630865

Nobodies case curve is like China's not even China's

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 4:55pm 1587617703

5; 15 mins in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BROwxhuZB78&feature=em-lsp

by Houseworks | 23rd Apr 20, 9:48pm 1587635325

Do you seriously believe that? For instance "journalists were attacked for trying to investigate" however someone was standing there filming as the attack happened and that someone uploaded it for you to watch the theatrics. Like the buy line that's sure to get interest... "this video has been banned"

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 5:11pm 1587618708

Wow .................am I correct in assuming that interest rates are going to be low for the next 12 years ...............with newly issued 2033 Government Bonds yielding under 2% per annum ?

We have well and truly destroyed the value of one of the 4 factors of production , and thats mighty dangerous

Look at what Communism did to Land and entrepreneurship as factors of production , that did not end well

Everything is now out of whack

by Audaxes | 23rd Apr 20, 5:51pm 1587621067

1.19% for 12.9671 years in fact, and a deeply negative real return when discounted by the latest CPI at 2.5%. One can only assume traders expect a massive bout of prolonged deflation to justify this investment or the RBNZ lifting them out of it at a lower yield price, in the not too distant future.

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 5:51pm 1587621088

@Audaxes , it did cross my mind that Mr Orr is doing a Dynamo magic trick on the crowd ............. you know a sleeve -job .

Quantitative easing ?

by Audaxes | 23rd Apr 20, 8:08pm 1587629308

It could leave the tax paying public with a realised loss if the RBNZ holds this 3.5% coupon note to redemption, unless the buying power of a NZD improves dramatically by 2033.

by Berend de Boer | 23rd Apr 20, 5:17pm 1587619021

Australia's recovery rate is 72% according to my calculation!

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 5:27pm 1587619663

@ Barend De Boer .........Same recovery rate as Zimbabwe which is simultaneously reporting a massive increase in cases of " Malaria " , which has very similar symptoms as influenza ..........go figure ?

Especially odd when the Malaria season in S-S Africa is summer and they are going into Autumn

by Pragmatist | 23rd Apr 20, 6:51pm 1587624706

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/21/zimbabwe-fac…
"Malaria transmission is seasonal and unstable, causing sickness and death across all age groups. In Zimbabwe, epidemics occasionally occur during the warm and wet season, particularly in February, March and April."

by Smalltown | 23rd Apr 20, 7:13pm 1587626013

Hmm, what's BM waffling on about then?

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 7:41pm 1587627702

@smalltown , I am suggesting there is possibly some misdiagnosis in Zimbabwe

There are only six or seven days left in April and outbreaks at this late stage in the season are not common .

Given the outward symptoms of Malaria are similar to flu , or flu-like , and there is practically no testing for covid taking place due to the lack of test kits , its very possible that those with suspected Malaria in remote rural districts are covid

Only time will tell

by Kezza R | 23rd Apr 20, 5:28pm 1587619686

70% chance that Ozzy will go the same way as the US.
Limited lick down, still getting their hair done, still working, still summer there once winter and the flu season hits they are in fir the a reeducation.

by Berend de Boer | 23rd Apr 20, 6:27pm 1587623254

Just have a look at the direction of the currency conversion between 1 NZ solar and 1 Aussie dollar, and you can see how likely the market things they scenario.

by Foyle | 23rd Apr 20, 8:38pm 1587631101

I think all the adjustments we have made to the way we behave (outside of the young n dumb demographic) will have a major impact on spread even if there is no mandatory isolation. See relatively slow rate of increase in Sweden. But yes, expect case numbers to start rising again one rules are relaxed and schools reopen.

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 5:44pm 1587620665

On Boris
https://unherd.com/2020/04/what-would-boriss-eulogy-be/?=refinnar

by Audaxes | 23rd Apr 20, 7:28pm 1587626889

I thought Boris studied greats at Oxford.

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 6:06pm 1587621977

Part 2
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/22/social-disruption-due-c…

by richard1965 | 23rd Apr 20, 6:08pm 1587622112

Bring Foreign buyers as the only way to lift econony.... Really...... People who have been printing money by housing ponzi are getting desperate.

Also this goes on to prove that for many only economy is housing economy and that too is possible if supported by foreign buyers.

Like drug many have got hooked to Chinesse money by national party for fast and easy money. Real shame. Many getting withdrawal symptons.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-shoots-d…

by redcows1 | 23rd Apr 20, 7:48pm 1587628090

That was a pretty big FO from Jacinda, certainly no mistaking. Loved it.

by RickStrauss | 23rd Apr 20, 8:02pm 1587628932

Fair enough. It would be absolutely sociopathic in nature to expect young and upcoming generations to pay the bill of bucking up the country in the next year or two whilst also selling the country out from under them for quick bucks.

by sharetrader | 23rd Apr 20, 10:40pm 1587638405

if you watched rod dury you could see how out of touch some mega rich are with normal folk thinking, one comment was they only buy a little bit of land and its not going anywhere
the green MP told him kiwis dont like the idea of selling our land to foreigners and we have a problem with housing needed for low incomes people
he didnt sell it very well and modified his plan to well then if they want to build here maybe they should contribute to a fund to build low cost housing.
he should have come back with they can lease the land for fifty years then build their holiday home on it, that way we get income each year plus the employment for building the house.

by blobbles | 23rd Apr 20, 11:15pm 1587640548

Rod just wants to do his billionaire Silicon Valley mates out. Self interest at it's worst.

There is no reason why (with rising unemployment) we couldn't get a whole heap of people working on affordable housing with printed money. Maybe we should just look after our own people first, using this as an oppourtunity to actually do kiwibuild. Labour capacity restraint is about to be solved... only thing is retraining, which people might like if they face unemployment...

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 6:11pm 1587622292

If Wuhan flu is that deadly why are there not dead people all over India and Africa by now?

by scarfie | 23rd Apr 20, 6:53pm 1587624832

I am sure you could find plenty of diametrically opposed expert opinions on this.

by Audaxes | 23rd Apr 20, 7:39pm 1587627587

Exactly - it is reporter agency dependent - the West still envisages returning India and possibly Africa to vassal status. The latter is difficult because of Chinese influence. But you can bet your bottom dollar Russia is crawling with victims.

by The Lark | 23rd Apr 20, 7:05pm 1587625509

Have a read of this, not all strains are equal, some more aggressive than others, mutation something else altogether.
https://www.rt.com/news/486425-covid-19-mutations-deadlier-strains/

by Camel's back | 23rd Apr 20, 7:08pm 1587625711

I do not know... Better immunity? Not happened yet? Not being reported? All the old people already died of malnutrition? Wuflu just another flu? Tis curious.

by Smalltown | 23rd Apr 20, 7:20pm 1587626456

Median ages.

Lot of African and 3rd world's are around 20ish. Italy's for example is well over double that at 47.

Once the young realise how much this is about boomers and older they are going to want a quid pro quo.

by Boatman | 23rd Apr 20, 7:50pm 1587628220

@Andrewj , due to poverty and tropical diseases people in India and Africa die a lot , often young , and often without the family ever knowing why .

I suspect that people are dying of covid outside of the run-down health system and not recorded ...........thats if you can call it a health system, its just not a health system as we know it

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 8:51pm 1587631868

perhaps ,but if you look at deaths in the UK there is a definite bias of the disease to kill people from ethnic backgrounds.

So what's different in the UK thats causes these deaths in minority groups but not in their home countries, say Pakistan or India?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8226103/NHS-probe-disproportio…

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 9:00pm 1587632413

A Guardian analysis found that of 53 NHS staff known to have died in the pandemic so far, 68% were BAME. They include 22 nurses, two porters, a radiology support worker, a patient discharge planner and a hospital bus driver. While the proportion of people from a minority ethnic background is higher in the NHS – 20%, rising to 44% for medical staff – the respective mortality rate, like the proportion of critical care admissions, is out of kilter.

The head of the British Medical Association (BMA), Dr Chaand Nagpaul, gave an interview with the Guardian last week calling for an official investigation. He said: “At face value, it seems hard to see how this can be random.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/data-on-bame-deaths-from-…

by Lapun | 23rd Apr 20, 9:51pm 1587635511

Fairly low numbers - to keep the maths easy assume 50 have died. 34 BAME and ought to have been maybe 22. I'm just guessing the deaths have mainly been in cities with higher than average BAME population. My last stays in NHS hospitals was 1984 and the one in North London was more multi-ethnic than the one in the Highlands of Scotland. To make any deduction about ethnic susceptability to Covid-19 we would need age distribution too - for all I know most of the Caribbean nurses are elderly. Worth while investigating.

by Andrewj | 23rd Apr 20, 10:06pm 1587636392

A lot of those BAME workers were younger too. Travel from UK to those countries is common, virus would have spread, even if it mutated it still should turning up in India,Pakistan ,Africa, and killing a lot more than it is.

by waymad | 23rd Apr 20, 6:59pm 1587625165

I see our Sage minister has put some small conditions on hunting on private lands: no quads, no trail bikes. Hmmm - sure to be observed to the letter, especially as much hunting will be farmers, in theirs and their neighbours' properties...... perhaps the old JD2030 will get an outing.....

by middleman1 | 23rd Apr 20, 8:04pm 1587629046

'I'm not hunting on my quad bike Eugenie, just out pest controlling, preventing those feral pigs and deer from eating my grass'

by Belle | 23rd Apr 20, 9:51pm 1587635509

So you can go and muster the back paddock on the bike but cant shoot a pig. Wtf. These people are in dreamland.

by The Lark | 23rd Apr 20, 7:09pm 1587625775

Low interest rates for ever? Deflation threat, print money, create inflation, oops, too much money, runaway inflation. Solution to high inflation, raise interest rates.
It's a fine mess being created, by monetary experts, solving the "depression ", before it's even started.

by Squishy | 23rd Apr 20, 7:13pm 1587626035

Why would inflation "run away", we've spend the best part of two decades heading towards ZIRP just to avoid deflation. Surely that is the greater risk.

by The Lark | 23rd Apr 20, 9:20pm 1587633645

In the same manner that oil went to -$37usd. A failure to respond to demand, actual demand, creates deflation at such a fast rate that prices become so ridiculously low. Once the system is out of balance, it is not so easily corrected. The negative price, in a free market creates a natural slowing of supply. When so much of the industry is in debt, the natural outcome is high level of bankruptcies. If the fed respond by printing the industries debt away, that adds to the money supply. Worse, the supply of oil remains at artificially high levels.
In a deflationary economy, the currency becomes stronger, which is good for people with an income, yet it slows investment, and as things get cheaper, people delay spending, and investment.
The problem is no longer money supply, it is deflation itself that the central bank is concerned about, and the solution to deflation is create inflation, by printing more money. As a result, the supply of money becomes ever more increased, yet just like the oil situation, the correct response is not given. The currency begins to lose value ( inflation) and the system becomes over supplied, creating run away inflation. This is about the simplest way I can try explain it, apart from saying that aspects of monetary supply do not happen in "pure economic environments". The oil glut is a result of geopolitics, not market variables. And it's these additional factors that help create such dangerous imbalances within, and externally to, an economy.

by Squishy | 23rd Apr 20, 7:11pm 1587625903

I hope the contraction in credit card balances doesn't indicate a decline in retail sales. This has always been the risk, if consumers are put under financial pressure they will stop spending and repay debt which will trigger a period of intense deflation.

by Ahuhyeah | 23rd Apr 20, 7:15pm 1587626115

It's not an indication. We are past indications. It's not a canary in the coal mine it's the elephant in the room - in plain sight.

by Kezza R | 23rd Apr 20, 7:45pm 1587627957

We (Kiwi's) had turned into consumers, that has changed and we have realised that we dont need as much as before plus there are tough times on the way save save save.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Apr 20, 8:30pm 1587630641

Yes in Dalio's recent comments he said we're heading toward 'self sufficiency' (personal and national) and saving.

by JimboJones | 23rd Apr 20, 7:28pm 1587626906

I’m thinking the opposite could happen. Because Our household can’t really spend anything we are about $3k better off already. In another 2 weeks it’s $4500. When the shops open we will have money to spend and a lot of stuff we “need” to get.

by middleman1 | 23rd Apr 20, 7:56pm 1587628580

JJ. Same here. This month's visa bill is a shadow of its former self. All the essential things we used to spend all that cash on don't seem quite so critical anymore. I wonder if we really will find lots of stuff we'll suddenly need?. I suspect many people will instead quite like the idea of continuing to add to the pile of nuts put into store during the lockdown. Which is exactly what Robbo doesn't want us to do.

by RickStrauss | 23rd Apr 20, 8:03pm 1587629025

Our problem is we've realised how much we don't need, even of the relatively thrifty lifestyle we were living. But we do need future security of lifestyle.

by Fritz | 23rd Apr 20, 8:04pm 1587629055

Our budget is not too much better than normal. Fuel savings largely cancelled out by higher electricity/gas bill with everyone at home. Probably about $70 net better off pw, with no commuting costs, no work lunches and no daily coffees...

by middleman1 | 23rd Apr 20, 8:17pm 1587629861

We are reviled boomers at the spending the kids inheritance stage and I'm watching with interest the head of the house as she has now started examining groceries closely to ensure we as much as possible buy NZ made. Didn't really give it much thought previously. We did quite a bit of over seas travel each year but now I'm being instructed that we will switch our spend to internal NZ destinations. Be fascinating to see the extent to which her new found zealotry becomes permanent. She loves to have a cause and I suspect this sudden patriotism may persevere.

by Independent_Observer | 23rd Apr 20, 8:33pm 1587630781

Aren't we expecting a surge when we come out of lockdown? (as you say to get the necessities) then we might be further reductions in spending?

by The Lark | 23rd Apr 20, 9:40pm 1587634826

The RBNZs indifference to deposit insurance is a backhanded way of ensuring that money is spent. Deflationary environments tend to result in hoarding of cash, as that becomes an investment in itself. A consumer economy relies on it's consumers, hence helicopter money in states and aus. The wage subsidy amounted to the same thing here, problem is, people couldn't go out and spend, and once the initial flurry of "essential " spending is over post LD, then people will find themselves in an economy with less confidence, and tend to save again. This is no good for consumer economy, so money must be "encouraged " to be spent, or invested, and the entire "bubble inflation" scenario persists.
It cannot end well, when a large % of the economy, ie, tourism, is leveled, then some economic pain has to be endured. The present situation is akin to stamping on someones foot, to stop them focusing on the cut on their hand.

by C'est la vie | 23rd Apr 20, 9:41pm 1587634880

Jacinda: be kind
David: be kind to our comment section
Literally first comment: flaming match ensues

by youngdumbandbroke | 23rd Apr 20, 11:20pm 1587640833

We value possessions more than we value relationships. Therefore, we don't put enough effort into understanding each other. Maybe that's why we struggle to agree on anything. Just because someone likes doing something or living a particular way instead of listening to what they think we try to run them down or outright ban them. In my short time on the earth, I think society has become less tolerant and more censored, less free. Not the type of society the ANZACs would have fought for I doubt.