Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes today - so far.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes today here either.
RETAIL SPENDING HALVES
Statistics New Zealand says the impact of the lockdown saw each New Zealander on average spending about $520 less in April than they did in March. But the average transaction size jumped.
'A SMALL BOUNCE'
ANZ Business Outlook preliminary results for May saw a rise in 'forward-looking activity indicators' but levels remain very low.
BIG LOSS, THEN BIG CAPITAL RAISE, BIG SPENDING PULLBACK
Z cancels its final dividend for year after reporting an -$88 mln after-tax loss. It says it has attained some 'covenant relief' from lenders and aims to reduce costs by up to -$96 mln this year.
OFF THE ROAD
Road user charges for commercial vehicles fell -54% in April from a year ago, the biggest monthly decline on record. And that lack of activity virtually eliminated demand for replacement vehicles.
FALLING EXPORTS
The Massey GDPLive team monitoring current economic data is reporting they see total exports for 2020 are approximately -9% down on the same period last year. The downturn started to take place from the second half of February. (H/T TS)
EXPLODING TURNOVER
In the past four weeks, the RBNZ is tracking $148 bln in Government bond turnover (D9), the highest on record after a $35 bln week last week. In the same four week period a year ago, the total was only $78 bln.
HUGE DEFICITS COMING
Deloitte Access Economics predicts that the Australian Federal government will post an underlying cash deficit of AU$143 bln this financial year (-7% of GDP), AU$132 bln next financial year, AU$52 bln in 2021-22 and AU$33 bln in 2022-23 before there is any chance of a surplus. And don't forget their trumpeted surplus last year never actually arrived. So they have to suffer another US$360 bln in deficits before that will have any change of happening next.
LOCAL UPDATE
There are 1497 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with three new cases yesterday, a rise from +2 the prior day. Twenty-one people have died (unchanged). There are now two people left in hospital with the disease (also unchanged), and none are in ICU. Our recovery rate is now just over 92% with 111 people known to be infected (-12) and 83 of those are in 12 active clusters. That means 28 cases are recovering in self isolation in the community (-8 from yesterday). We will have full coverage of the L3/L2 announcement for the Government is a few minutes.
AUSTRALIA UPDATE
In Australia, there are now 6941 cases (+27 since Saturday), 98 deaths (+1) and an unchanged recovery rate of just under 89%. 43 people are in hospital there (-15) with 17 in ICU (-6).
GLOBAL UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 4,101,500 and up +24,000 from when we check this data this morning, which is an unchanged level of growth. Now, just under 33% of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +9,000 since this morning taking the total to 1,329,200 and the only country to exceed 1 mln cases. This is an unchanged level of increase. US deaths have almost reached 80,000 (79,525). Global deaths are about to exceed 283,000. Although much faster increases are coming in four key countries (Russia, Brazil, India and Peru) there is no slowing in the UK which is has passed Spain to be the country with the second highest level of infection globally.
EQUITY UPDATES
Despite the disaster that is the US labour market, equities are higher. The ASX200 is up +1.2% so far today, and the NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.3%, held back by Z Energy. In very early trade, Shanghai is up +0.4%, Hong Kong is up +2.0%, and Tokyo is up +1.4%. Global asset prices are held aloft by "whatever it takes" money printing by the major central banks, more money chasing assets to invest in even if the returns are dubious.
SWAP RATES UPDATE
Wholesale swap rates started the week little-changed. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details today yet. We will update this later in the day if they show a significant movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at a record low 0.26%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +6 bps to 0.97%. The China Govt 10yr is up +5 bps to 2.65%. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield up +2 bps to 0.59%. The UST 10yr has also firmed today ahead of Wall Street's opening, to 0.70%.
NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar remained firm, now at 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 has risen to 67.3.
BITCOIN FALLS SHARPLY
The price of Bitcoin is sharply lower at US$8,762 and down -$1100 or -11% from this time on Friday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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