Newshub-Reid Research Poll: 60% of respondents back Ardern as PM, while only 5% want Bridges in the job; Labour has more than enough support to govern on its own

Newshub-Reid Research Poll: 60% of respondents back Ardern as PM, while only 5% want Bridges in the job; Labour has more than enough support to govern on its own
Jacinda Ardern. Getty Images.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is soaring in popularity, as Labour would have enough support to govern on its own if there was an election tomorrow, according to the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

Support for Labour increased 14% points to 56.5% since the last poll conducted in February. Meanwhile 59.5% of those surveyed chose Ardern as their preferred prime minister.

Support for National hit rock bottom at 30.6%, with support for Simon Bridges as prime minister at only 4.5%.

According to these results, Labour would have 72 seats in Parliament - 11 more than the 61 it needs to govern.

National, with the support of two ACT seats, would have 41 seats.

At least 16 National MPs would lose their jobs. National MPs who spoke to the Australian Associated Press just last week said anything below 35% in the party ranks would call Bridges' leadership into question.

Here are the results:

Labour: 56.5% (up 14% points)
National: 30.6% (down 12.7% points)
Greens: 5.5% (down 0.1% points)
NZ First: 2.7% (down 0.9% points)
ACT: 1.8% (no change)
Maori Party: 0.9% (no change)
Conservatives: 1.0% (up 0.3% points)
TOP: 0.1% (down 0.5% points)

Preferred prime minister:

Jacinda Ardern: 59.5% (up 20.8% points)
Simon Bridges: 4.5% (down 6.1% points)
Judith Collins: 3.1% (down 0.7% points)

Asked whether it was the right call for New Zealand to be put in Level 4 lockdown for four weeks, 91.6% of respondents said yes, 6% no, and the rest didn't know.

The poll was conducted between May 8 and 16, with half of the responses taken after the Budget. It has a margin of error of 3.1%.

The election is due to be held on September 19. 

 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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262 Comments

Replace Simon but with whom? Terrible night watchman job to lose the election and then get rolled for Luxon

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Nooooo...not Luxon...

The problem is Luxon is not a well known person , which is a pity , because he has good leadership skills , but he needs to spend a term in opposition to cut his teeth

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The general view coming from those in the know, seems to be he is pretty awful

I think it takes longer than that to figure out how to run an economy.

https://hbr.org/1996/01/a-country-is-not-a-company

It's not because he is not a well known person. He simply just doesnt have any politic background. Being a leader to lead a nation is different to leading Air New Zealand, especially when there is a crisis like this. You can not just put a CEO on a PM's job and expect he will lead the country well as how he lead his company. Just look at Donald Trump, he is good with negotiating a decent deal with China, but trying to contain covid crisis? He failed miserably.

They are in the same mess Labour was in during the first and second terms of the Gnats.

No Winny to keep her in check. Oh no....

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Labour governing alone, unlikely. Labour governing with just the Greens, truly frightening. Labour governing with NZF in there somewhere, better than the first two. Folks, this is MMP New Zealand style.

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Labour will take the Greens with them anyway.
So no Winny, and we are in for a disaster.

At least they'd get something done. In my opinion he is the handbrake.

A hand break on the Labour air-fairy, pie in the sky lala. With no handbreak they will run arround thinking they have a mandate to do what they want. Sounds like Key's National not long ago. "We have a mandate.... " .
Labour and especially the Greens need a considerable handbreak.

Agree Labour will include the Greens whether they need to or not. And if the Greens then are allowed to come charging unbridled out of left field with all of their pent up frustrations, then quite frankly NZ is doomed, the whole country will be in an uproar within three months I would wager.

How did you manage to make the Greens the senior partner in any partnership they might enter with Labour?

Labour or National I would rather see some action, Im sick to death of the sit on your arse waffling bollocks of our political landscape.
Better to apologise after the fact than ask for permission.

Winston, Shane and NF deserve to be on 2.7%. Unfortunately Winston is going to further develop his Trumpist behaviours, continue spending (our money) big time in Northland - as with the horse racing “industry” - reminding all as who he and Shane are, and continue to raise and harp on about red neck issues.
Unfortunately Winston has no plans leaving Wellington - let alone the government benches - any time soon.
. . . and I and my mates are members of his “grey power” constituency.

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. . . My mate Winston killed a capital gains tax (fortunately not so critical at the moment), and never heard Winston talking about housing affordability issues (as he never moves among such people), and never about addressing current social issues.
Winston seemingly has little empathy or interest other than the baubles of power.
Photo of him smirking while standing on his front lawn fishing in the first week of lockdown giving the proverbial big finger to the rest of us as we faced less salubrious and crowded conditions sums him up!

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Time for him and his mates to go. Game's up.

Nah he is always good for a laugh

Nah he is always good for a laugh

@printer8 housing affordability issues are an Auckland -only problem and the issue has been made a lot worse by a left leaning council

Ask yourself how many regions/cities outside of Auckland have a DTI of over 3.5 (that which is considered affordable)? Hint: it's a lot.

Boatman
Housing affordability - and housing shortages - are definitely not an Auckland-only problem.
Interest.co March data housing affordability doesn't support that.
Yes Auckland City 39.9% couple net pay compared to say, Wellington City 29.9%.
However, for young FHB, first step on property ladder and prepared to commute, Papakura 31.0% compared to Porirua 31.9%.
Areas such as North Shore are at 48.8% and (inner) Auckland City 46.5% distort Greater Auckland figures; but seriously do you think FHB as their first step on the property ladder should be looking to such areas?
As for housing shortages. Here in Hawkes Bay from what I see we have at least five motels (75 rooms?) housing people, and during Level 4 there were at least three other motels I saw housing people although seemingly on a temporary basis.
And yesterday's DTI reports support that this is both unacceptable and is wide - including areas such as Hawke's Bay and Gisborne - as Ngrrk points out.
So please; housing affordability and housing shortages are an issue for young FHB and not just an Auckland-only issue; yes possibly more extreme in Auckland (especially parts) but not limited to Auckland.

A lot of rumours from high up that Winny is hanging up his boots after this election.

Well, he will be 107

Brillant, the toxic gnome might be out for good.

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To paraphrase my favourite bit of ANZAC sports sledging:

THREE MORE YEARS BOYS... THREE MORE YEARS...

Dont be too smug @speechless .......September is a long 4 months away ............thats 16 weeks , and a week is a long time in politics .

By July we are gong to be in a terrible recession , unemployment could rise to uncomfortable double digits , businesses will be going bust falling over left right and centre , provincial New Zealand will be pulverized and hurting, tourism will be toast , and people will be losing their homes to mortgagee sales .

New Zealanders will blame Labour for this

Keep hoping mate

But will they want austerity and the selling off of NZ's best land from a CCP-aligned party?

National have not produced any vision for addressing the situation and don't look to have leaders suited to such a crisis environment.

Thus I think it's most likely Labour will win this one. But it's not a good election for anyone to want to win unless they're a sucker for punishment. They'll probably get turfed out the next time around because it's always going to be a rough three years.

Boatman
Careful on comments about provincial New Zealand being pulverized and hurting.
Here in Hawke's Bay the Port is going gung-busters. Log prices up; meat, apple and water going great. Yes loss of cruise ships but not a great contributor to regional income - tourism here dependent predominantly on domestic tourism and already increase in campervans was quite noticeable last few days following easing of lock down. Dry conditions over summer is going to result in some great vintages similar to drought in 2013; and farmers will be happy with the first of the autumn rain in the last few days.

And don't forget that we haven't even started our flu season yet, our immune system, in general, is down due to isolation, and we are just opening up and mingling more.

There is many a victory lost in the home straight due to thinking we have won this. A further lock down of any sort would be telling.

Immune system is down? What does that mean?

Wow

Wow indeed, four weeks of lockdown is a long time in politics ..........that said , I reckon the Nats have done well to keep their powder dry , and stay in the background .

The Nats should continue to stoically disassociate themselves from the panic mode the Government is in , and the hole they are digging for themselves .

By July we are going to be in a terrible recession , and from my experience no one gives two hoots about a sitting Government when they are unemployed , their houses are up for Mortgagee sale , their savings are spent on survival , and are struggling to get by ...............worse when your small business in which you have invested you whole life is gone .

While Ardern has done an excellent PR job on TV, Labour getting a free state -sponsored election interview at 1pm every day , those around her have been frankly hopeless ..............where TF is the Health Minister for example ?

No , by July / August things are going to be a mess in the entire world economy , including here in NZ , and the criticism of the lockdown will be shrill

LOL..kept their powder dry...

The criticism is shrill now - from a noisy few. Who wants to be like them?

Contrary to stoic disassociation, it seems National's problem is they've been fragmented and contradictory in their statements and claims, and appeared to have simply been yelling "ANYTHING BUT WHAT THEY SAID!"

That seems to have created a perception problem for Simon and the party.

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Just pay everyone's wages for a while - who'd of thought that was the secret?

What would you have preferred? No business/social support at all. The wage subsidy tied us over for 3 weeks when our caseload was decimated. Workload has returned to pre-covid levels.

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National just need to let this election go to Labour for two reasons. Firstly the economy is going to be a poison chalice, just let Labour sink into the mess they just created and secondly Simon simply has to go, no ifs about it and they need someone who can run a business so that rules out all their current contenders so better get someone like Luxon into the job or they will be toast for years.

Agree Carlos - I've been a National voter in the past but won't go near them with the current leadership group. Bring in someone like Luxon and some movement in policy and I'd happily go back and vote blue.

Ain't happening this election - but I still don't know who I'm going to vote for...leaving all other options open.

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What exactly has Luxon accomplished that would make him the messiah for National let alone a prime minister. From a customers point of view Air NZ regressed sharply under his management. Reverted to what Norris had decried, ie flying planes not people. A bean counter will always compulsively count the beans before anything else is allowed to move. We are people not beans!

We'll Simon is currently being cruicified and don't think he's coming back to the land of the living. At least Luxon will give a fresh perspective and change. At the moment, National are in a race to the bottom if they don't make a change.

Not saying Luxon is perfect by any stretch. But you hear the National party supporters whinging about Labour having 'no business experience' - then look at Bridge and Benefit and realise they're even worse.

Bridges and Bennett, that says it all right there.
Why would he put Bennett in 2nd????

The leadership battles when they fought for power...compromises had to be made.

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Exactly,anyone who has worked under him has nothing good to say.
He did nothing transformational whilst leading Air NZ.He was an ex grocery salesman who knows nothing but cutting costs.
He got a free ride by getting the top job after Rob Fyfe & Ralph Norris had done all the hard work in transforming the airline,got the staff on board,updated the interiors,ordered modern aircraft,then handed over to Christopher.
When he was in charge,everyone was warned...his name is Christopher,not Chris,when he got into politics,suddenly he is Chris,man of the people.
Obviously,the spin doctors said you will look like a pompous twat if you insist on being called Christopher...
Luxon just hit the sweet spot of historic low fuel prices,no competetion on the LAX route after Qantas pulled out and then the arrival after a 4 year delay of the super fuel efficient 787.He rode that wave a few years,whilst pocketing some serious cash via salary,bonuses and some very generous share options,at one point having over $30m in shares.
Then when things started getting tougher,competition,increased fuel costs,the cabin designs started falling behind...he decides it's time to move on...announcing he was unsure what he was doing next,going to take the summer off...then low and behold a month or two later,he is parachuted in to a safe Nat seat...he will have this all strategised out,he will be loving hearing Simon Bridges tongue tied,digging a hole.Luxon probably already has the door plaque engraved with "Luxon PM"
He has a sense of superiority about him,probably as he is a member of "The Upper Room"
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2019/11/08/chosen-to-rule-what-sort-of-christ...

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"He has a sense of superiority about him" - that's why I think he'll do so well within the National Party and the usual National supporter base.

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Previous PM Key remarked that he thought Luxon would be good because he would be good for the economy. That was enough for me. Just ask anyone in Canterbury for example with a National government’s achievement post EQs, of a stuffed family home, what good for the economy means.

Luxon at AirNZ draws a comparison to Jacinda as PM don't you think vman. You can quite easily put everything down to luck and timing. Believe what you want and read into what you feel (or make up) is between the lines. [ Unnecessary smear removed. Don't do it. Ed ]

You make this comment from your many years working in the airline industry and alongside Christopher?

Touchy subject?

Messiah? Well, he is a fundie.

yeah and he carries religious dogma.

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No way in hell a swing voter like me would go anyway near an Evangelical Christian. The various humanist and rationalist groups of NZ are also strongly against Luxon.

Suspect they'll parachute him into a Christchurch electorate where his hairstyle will help attract votes.

I would ask those who are left at Air NZ if they'd vote for Luxon.. Not sure he'd be the one I would tie my wagon to.

Ok, put yourself in the shoes of the National Party hierarchy and think Simon's toast, then you say, who do we have?

Feel free to make suggestions (I'm not saying Luxon is the messiah but relative to Simon, he may as well be).

Perhaps there are NO good options. In fact, my use of the word 'perhaps' is redundant.
They are in the poop.

Looks like they are so far down the toilet that a drain layers digger is required to find them not just a plumbers hand.

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Labour unchained seem to be the best opportunity to address so many issues - housing affordability, economic inequality etc.
Thought that Jacinda was a failure with so much in the first 18 months (e.g. KiwiBiuld), that Christchurch 2019 she did little more than unseat Judy Bailey as the mother of the nation, but have been really impressed with her decisive and bold leadership in managing Covid. I even think Grant has matured considerably from the first year when I watched him regularly in Question Time; while we may not agree with all he has done and baulk at the debt, so far we seem to be coming out of the economic consequences of the lock down retaining numerous businesses and jobs, be a better position - heading for unemployment around 10% while US projected to be as high as 35% (Goldman Sachs) and debt topping at 53% of GDP compared to US currently at 106% and projected to top at 135%.

Let's see how they go with another term. They have some serious lack of talent, Kiwibuild and housing in general has been a mess.
Jacinda is generally great, Robertson average but not terrible.
It would make such a difference if they got someone with real talent and energy into the housing space. Where is he / she? Big potential gains there. Woods is pretty average IMHO.

I think you've it the nail on the head here (although I do think Robertson is better than average). Labour deserve another term as much as National deserved to lose last time round. What they need to do is use MMP properly to introduce non-elected people to strengthen the areas where a non-politico can make the most difference - housing is an obvious winner, and there are many around that could make a big differnce. Twyford is a proven non-performer so cut him loose.

Great points.
Yes cut Twyford loose right after the election, while they have the political capital to do so. Send him to the backbenches where he belongs.
It's a pity, he has so much energy. But he's quite arrogant and he just doesn't listen, or at least doesn't listen to the right people...

I'd be OK with that if they could just find some talent, people with sorely needed business, management, project or industrial skills to fill the front benches. It is desperately needed to navigate NZ through the coming depression.

could they get Rob Fyfe in?

Anyone who has worked in the C-suite of a medium to large commercial business would be a good start. Anyone with a strong technical or STEM background would be good too. Labour cabinet are almost entirely ex student polies, civil servants, teachers and ex union heirarchy, it's an incredibly narrow experience base to draw from in making big decisions.

Reckon they should get Fyfe and some other proven transformational/crisis leaders in some sort of role at the execution side of strategy, ideally. As major participants in the strategy formation, but even more so in pushing it through some of the public sector.

A la Prebble lighting a fire under some of the ministries of his time.

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Sorry...mess Labour created?...is that the latest conspiracy theory,the corona virus was created in a secret lab at the railway workshops,not in Wuhu,but in Otahuhu by a disgruntled Trade unionist...

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Vman, it's just your basic common or garden tribalism. Irrational attachment to one team and its narrative. It's understandably anti-Labour here. You'll read all the stereotyped stances, including much misogyny towards our Prime Minister. I was saying on here recently, that every where I interact with the world, Kiwis are very much behind the current government, believe they are doing a good job (even before the pandemic) and yet, when I come here, there is just bitterness and conspiracy theories. The rhetoric spouted is out of the right-wing-rant play book.

I personally try to focus on actual policy, delivery and achievements. Labour has crisis managed well (mosque, volcano and pandemic) but they failed to deliver on many of the key policies they offered at the ballot box last time. There is much speculation on here as to why, but it's likely that being a minority government, dependent on Peters didn't help. It's also true that the private construction industry probably weren't keen to buy in to the Kiwibuild scheme with various anti-property policies proposed by Labour and the notion of affordable housing. However, perhaps the pandemic has changed that and the construction industry will be glad to partner with the Labour government more enthusiastically? Who knows. There is much speculation but the issues are not as simple as all the right-wing-narrative-rants suggest. All I can say is that, of the choices, Labour are for more likely to get my vote, but if they do get a majority and sufficient mandate to enact policy and then fail a second time? If they don't attend to the housing crisis in their second term? They lose a lot of the good will I still currently have.

I suspect the kind of people you meet in the real world are a select set - in the real world I live in I hear right wing statements that our editor would either delete immmediately or he would be prosecuted for hate speech crimes. I'm not saying I hear them all the time but often.
Commentators on this site are a select bunch too - my estimation is some left-wing and some right-wing obviously obsessed by sale and purchase of real estate but also generally disgruntled. If you are contented with our ruling elites then why bother commenting. Given the interest in real estate commentators are surprisingly anti-National especially so since the COL has been in power. Well I know I am.

Why do bother commenting? Why does anyone? As a centrist, I like to bite my thumb at all the tedious tribal nonsense.

Right with you there gnj except I like to label my self as non-partisan, has a sort of non-combative ring to it, but seeing how I have needed to be censored too often, I don’t exactly live up to it admittedly.

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I love the phrase "let this election go" as if they have a choice in the matter. They're getting trounced because they're a useless pack of wannabe plutocrat panda huggers mate it really is that simple.

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'a useless pack of wannabe plutocrat panda huggers'

That's gold.

I was thinking about 5 years ago that if Key, English and Joyce were to leave, National would be toast. Those behind them were just along for the ride under the depth and experience of Key/English. And slowly the wheels are falling off.

I mean that you need to have Paula Benefit as deputy of your party shows you're in quite a lot of trouble.

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Labour have proved that National created a false economy for almost a decade that only enriched themselves and their overseas buddies. It kept the rest of us poorer by each new generation, until they would have eventually sold NZ off to the highest overseas bidder.

Supporting evidence for this is the fact their plan if reelected is to being selling NZ off to highest overseas bidders once more. What a terrible plan to come up with at a time like this.

In the meantime Andrew Little has free reign in the Justice portfolio *shudder*

Enjoy your freedom to criticize him, so long as it may last. Free speech will certainly be a target for him should he get another term.

Exactly my point.

Carlos67,

"They need someone who can run a business". Nonsense. Running government and a business are two very different things and need different skill sets. I saw this in the UK where senior businessmen disappeared without trace once in politics. For most, they could not adjust to departmental politics or the bureaucratic minefield, though Muller is doing ok.

Carlos,you mean like Fletchers? ,Fonterra, Sky?
As Linklater says,politics is a very different beast.

Agreed. Also it's a bonus to get the Greens, and NZF out of government

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Simon has got to go...but this might be like the case for neoliberal economics where the belief is too strong...to the point it is willing to self implode instead of encouraging change.

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Maybe with all these extra seats they can find someone to deliver all those flagship 2017 policies they promised.

Great job, you went back to 2011 for some whataboutism. Can you tell me how in any way that has stopped Labour from following through on all the supposedly urgently needed stuff they said they'd give us while they were accusing National of neglect?

Are only your 'whataboutisms" valid ?

Considering I'm the one making the initial point, I fail to see how I can 'whatabout' myself. Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sorry,I forgot to read the dictionary on the meaning of "whataboutism',I stand humbly corrected by your obviously superior intellect...
With random precision
Rode on the steel breeze
Come on, you raver, you seer of visions

Look man, I just want the public transport I was promised, not the endless arse-covering and suddenly hiding behind Covid19 despite nothing happening for the two years prior to Covid19 even existing. There's a lot of lost family and productive time each day/month/year and it seems like it's something that wouldn't get tolerated if it was happening in more well-off areas, like the North Shore, which already has a busway and has had one for a decade now. But because it's South and West Auckland, no one cares. Makes it kind of hard to accept the 'kindness' mantra we're having thrown at us like we're at a Wiggles concert.

northland are still waiting for bridges from bridges, guess they will never see them now

Don't worry, you're getting a port care of the Auckland ratepayer. They don't know it yet though.

That would probably include 4 lanes to Whangarei,multiple bridges,freight & commuter trains...sounds like a plan?

I mean...no? Why should Aucklanders partially fund being stripped of their own asset and intensive transport corridors in other regions while Auckland still loses massive numbers of hours to congestion? Although given these poll results, and given that it looks like Labour no longer needs NZ First, there's little reason for them to buy them a seat anymore so this plan is probably dead in the water.

Staying in Auckland, if the current trajectory toward much larger ships goes, it will become unsuitable as such a port, unless the gulf is utterly destroyed. If Whangarei is more naturally suited and we insist on carrying on with importing every damned thing we touch and if this ghastly, enormous floating petri dishes get up and running again, then we need to move it there.

With Aucklands population projected to get to 40% of the country,we need to find alternate locations for industry,so a large infrastructure located up north would open the area up to other businesses.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12332687
Where's the growth happening?
According to previous statistics Northland is the fastest-growing region in the country, with more than 27,000 more people living in the region than five years ago.

I would rather we actually began to address the issue of "growth" and how it cannot go on forever, which many seem to think is possible.

Sure, and what is the real dollar effect for consumers of adding an extra freight/depot leg for all the goods imported into the country, at a time when real incomes are falling? What is the effect on supply chain uncertainty? Again, what is the additional cost to Aucklanders who face having a publicly owned asset stripped from them? What is the price of most of our goods being stuck in congestion in the North West from the planned depot (a land-intensive operation in one of the fastest growing parts of the city) given that there is now no public transit options to remove commuter traffic? Tell me how all these costs and uncertainties add up to a win for Auckland.

Be interesting to look into how the negative externalities of expanded Auckland port operations might be measured against the pure monetary return.

So you would happily wreck the Hauraki Gulf. It's time for us to stop doing this sort of thing, way, way past time, actually

Are you saying that Auckland will lose ownership of the port if it moves to Marsden Point?

The combined value of the Port operation and the land underneath is the real loss. Yes, the POAL holding in Marsden will increase in value, but by nowhere near as much. I know they are separate but as long as there is a Port operating there, there is at least some return to the public. Given the mess that is Wynyard Quarter, I think we all need a clearer vision about what the POA area would look like if the Port operation were to move. Unless Auckland is a net winner (all benefits exceeding all costs) then we should be opposing moving the port. If we're giving up a Port only to sign up for luxury apartments of no real utility to most Aucklanders or a huge stadium that will cost Aucklanders billions of dollars to build and run, then it doesn't seem like a good deal for Auckland.

Bridge collapse.

It'll be so good to finally fully unleash the financially destructive power of Grant Robertson without anything to hold him back. Money will be no object.

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I think that is unfair.
I think Robertson is very fiscally conservative in usual times.

We'll likely find out within a few years, whether we'd like to or not.

Grant wouldn't be able to even see 'fiscally conservative' with binoculars from where he has set up camp - borrowing 20Billion for a slush fund. NZ govts have paid back about 1% of GDP on our debt a year for last 5 years of good times. Labour are about to dump a debt on us that will take 30-50 years of such efforts to pay back.

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Now don’t pretend that National wouldn’t have done exactly the same given the circumstances

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Yeah, I wish National had been responsible like Cullen and paid back our debt, instead of racking up the (till then) highest government debt this country had ever seen by cutting taxes for the rich during the worst global recession in living memory and worst natural disaster this country has ever suffered.

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People seem to forget that the previous National Government inherited minimal public debt and borrowed around 60 Billion on.......

Can't "forget" something that you deliberately stuck your fingers in your ears and sung 'la la la' to in order to avoid hearing in the first place.

Much more fun to scream DECADE OF DEFICITS and quote Cullen as saying he "left the cupboard bare" without realising the context of that quote was Cullen saying National would be forced to borrow for tax cuts because Cullen had spent the surpluses on tax cuts in the 2008 budget after National had been whining for them for so long. Guess how National delivered their large tax cuts...

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"In her Budget speech, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern addressed jobs, declaring that her Budget “…seeks to save as many as 140,000 of them, and to support the growth of 370,000 more over four years.”
To achieve this her Government is going to add $150 billion in new debt over four years. To save 140,000 jobs. That works out to over $1 million per job saved, or $300,000 if we add in the mythical 370,000 jobs that will be created by fairy dust and magic.

None of this will work. Governments do not create real jobs. Private firms do. And for private firms to create employment we need certainty, and the key to certainty is confidence in the value of the currency. Yet the day before Budget was delivered Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr pledged to increase quantitative easing from an already irresponsible $33b to a profoundly reckless $60b.

... According to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, tourism employs - directly or indirectly - 330,000 people and accounts for 5.8 per cent of our GDP.

International tourism was about 40 per cent of this total and we can safely assume that domestic tourism will fall dramatically. A 1 per cent rise in unemployment is roughly 28,000 jobs.

Job losses in the tourism sector alone will push us over the Treasury forecast.

During the GFC, building consents fell in half. We have over 180,000 people toiling in construction, more in support services.

If even a third of those currently employed in construction lose their jobs unemployment will surge past 10 per cent. If we manage to keep unemployment under 20 per cent, the level that some economists believe is the real rate in the United States today, I will be pleasantly surprised."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300013538/economic-van...

We also need a more honest way of counting unemployment. If one of a couple loses his/her job he/she is not eligible for benefit while partner is still working, therefore is not counted as unemployed. Yet that family's circumstances are very materially altered.

They are certainly counted as unemployed.

They're just not counted as being on the jobseeker benefit because they aren't eligible to be on it. Seems sensible that the number of people on the jobseeker benefit only actually include those that are on it.

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National is going to have to change its focus away from selling our sovereignty to China and debt enslavement of Kiwis to overseas bank interests. Note none of that is in the best interests of Kiwi taxpayers. Hopefully this will lead to a big clean out.

How have they got it so wrong?

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because they listen to donors not voters

With the geopolitical environment evolving quickly (e.g. companies looking to pivot from China to India) this may be playing havoc with Ximon Bridges internal "one Chinese, one Indian" calculations.

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Even now National still saying tax cuts for over 70k group in Bridges alternative budget. I vote National and Labour, but until National come up with something other than tax cuts we obviously cant afford , then I wont consider them.

a couple of bill in tax cuts we cant afford --- but we can afford to borrow 50 bill this year .... to subsidize 100000 jobs that are already toast

I'm in the same boat Justa. The legacy of the John Key era peut etre?

I would feel better about tax rates staying where they are if they were at least adjusted for inflation.

I just don't believe there is 15+% of swing voters around the country who have decided to now vote Labour. Has the pandemic response really driven this? I'd believe the poll more if a significant % surveyed were undecided at this point in time. Actually, where is the undecided % (0.9% unaccounted for). Could be proved wrong over the next few months. The question for me is not the last months increase but the 23+% increase over the last 2 years since August 2017. What has the Col done/achieved to cause the gargantuan swing of predominantly NZ first and National voters?

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What has the Col done? Media saturation with Jacinda for the past 2 months to the point that the majority of the population don't know anyone else exists in NZ politics. Sadly much of people's understanding of politics now is driven by perception rather than reality.

10
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Stood back and let Bridges be Bridges.

And also washed the pecaru's out of their eyes. For the prior 9 years we had people like Gerry Brownlie as Ministers of the Crown?

12
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There definately is - all my friends (25-30 year old group) all were centre voters some voted National, some voted for Labour, we were in a real pickle. I can tell you right now we are all voting Labour. That is probably the biggest swing category 25-35.

National with Simon, Bennett, and next to no other potential candidate make them look terrible when you can have Jacinda and Robertson instead.

Have to admit I am out of touch with the 25-30 age group. Maybe its the party they dislike that decides their vote?

Under 45's (Grant and Jacinda included) lack memory of really bad downturns. It is young adults that pay the biggest price for economic mismanagement, and lack the basic understanding that, like credit card blowouts, you pay a huge long term price for any short term 'vote yourself rich' extravagance.

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Which we’ve done since the GFC under National? Vote yourself rich that is via property speculation, no capital gains tax, open market to foreign buyers, no land taxes.

I think they're all aware of how they've ended up paying for the enrichment of older folk through the economic and monetary mismanagement since the GFC. They've certainly ended up paying a huge price for those extravagantly voting themselves rich.

Unfortunately National post-GFC have only perpetuated the mortgaging of NZ's children's and grandchildren's future to enrich mates in the now.

Wasn't an internal National poll leaked a few weeks back showing sub 30% support? So perhaps not just an anomaly.

Two internal National polls and a Labour one. This is the 4th poll showing Labour north of 50 and National at 36 or lower.

Good call. I am of the exact same opinion of how accurate a localised (meaning biased) poll would actually be under lockdown conditions. Surely these conditions would be a threat to certain biases and limitations of a survey considering the full effects of a lockdown have not yet been realised.

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NZ is a global success story in regards to beating the coronavirus lets keep it that way, so we can stand tall economically as well in the long run. :)

At what cost? We are going to find out that the cure is worse than the disease.

New Zealand isn't special, the virus has been beaten back in most of Asia and Europe now. They are under the same restrictions or less restrictions than us. It's time to stop blowing our own trumpet.

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Or if you're Simon Bridges, "the medicine is worse than the cure" :-).

And he'd no doubt pinned so much hope on that catchy little mantra becoming the quote of his career.

And he practised it in front of the mirror over and over,it sounded so good then.
He asked Christopher Luxon his opinion on it and he said,"sounds good Simon,I'd run with that slogan,you are a true wordsmith..."

Yes that was another one of his cringeworthy moments...if I had a drink for every time he said that I wweeould bei piseed aass a neuut

Was watching CNN this morning and Biden had a similar one. Quite cringe worthy.

Most of them will be back in lockdown in a few weeks time.

What makes you say that?

Maths

You should change your name to clueless.

And they're facing very similar economic consequences all the same.

So why do we need a false dichotomy re lockdown and economic recession? Seems it's time to stop blowing that trumpet, surely.

Nothing is a global success when you are now likely to inherit a national debt system which is north of 50% of GDP and circa $80k per head of capita. I am in no way comfortable with those figures, especially considering we have had disasters like regional earthquakes, COVID and a Labour led coalition government.

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Early days. St Jacinda missed the real quarantine opp (first week of March) & the rest has cost us plenty. How much? $60 billion & counting. Does anyone really appreciate the size of these numbers? Or are we all dumb?

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Remember this in early Feb, when China massively pressured NZ to keep our boarders open and Jacinda would not be swayed by the Chinese ambassador who said "When in prosperity friends know us, and when in adversity we know our friends."

Simon Bridges would have buckled in second and we would be in a similar virus mess as the UK or Italy. I for one am very thankful that she stood as strong as she did under such political pressure.

Interest article: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern hopes to lift Chinese travel restrictions 'as soon as possible' and says there's sound footing to restore, normalise and advance NZ-China relations. https://www.interest.co.nz/news/103725/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern%C2%...

Remember 6th March when the MoH advised to close the borders and Jacinda ignored it for another ten days? Me neither.
https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/final_rep...

It recommend closing travel to specific countries with "uncontrolled spread", which is not the policy that Jacinda enacted 10 days later.

Nice try Lanth "...all countries with evidence of uncontrolled spread of Covid-19". Note the words "all" and "evidence" - not a specific to be found.
Guess this wasn't enough evidence for Cindy to close the border with places like Italy, for example - "March 6, 2020, at 1:56 p.m ROME (Reuters) - The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has risen by 49 to 197, the Civil Protection Agency said on Friday, the largest daily increase in fatalities since the contagion was uncovered two weeks ago.
Italy is currently reporting more deaths per day from the virus than any other country in the world and the government this week ordered the closure of schools, universities, cinemas and theaters around the country to try to stem the infections."

Nice try Lanth "...all countries with evidence of uncontrolled spread of Covid-19". Note the words "all" and "evidence" - not a specific to be found.

Yes, that is a specific ban on specific countries, as opposed to a blanket or global ban on all international travel (or foreign citizens), which is what was introduced on 19th March. On 16th March, everyone entering NZ from any country in the world was required to self-isolate.

The report dated 6th March doesn't recommend either of the actions that the government took, instead it recommends widening the 'banned' travel list of countries, or alternatively removing the travel bans and requiring "relevant incoming travellers" to self-quarantine for 14 days.

So what was introduced 10 days later (retaining existing banned countries, requiring all others to self-isolate) is NOT what was suggested by this report (banning more countries only, or lifting existing bans and requiring some people to self-isolate), which is what you claimed.

Your claim is wrong. Sorry.

You're special Lanth. The report recommended option 1 - "...all countries with evidence of uncontrolled spread of Covid-19" on the 6th of March. Why did Cindy ignore this advice for ten days and continue to let people in from countries - like Italy - that clealy had evidence of uncontrolled spread of Covid-19? Even South Sudan was more organised when it came to border control.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-african-nations-are-teachi...

The actions the government took on 16th March and 19th March were not mentioned in the report on 6th March.

16th March - retain existing travel bans, impose 14 day self-quarantine on all arrivals. This was not recommended in the report.

19th March - ban arrivals of all foreign nationals, maintain 14 day self-quarantine on all arriving NZ citizens. This was not recommended in the report.

It is likely that Jacinda and the cabinet decided their existing travel bans on China (enacted 3rd February) and self-isolation orders on anyone travelling from Italy or South Korea (enacted 1st March) were sufficient when they received that report on or about 6th of March.

https://shorthand.radionz.co.nz/coronavirus-timeline/

"The actions the government took on 16th March and 19th March were not mentioned in the report on 6th March." Yes, as I said Cindy ignored MoH advice. Ten days of dithering and a $200 billion debt forecast later and here we are. If only she had acted on the MoH advice rather than ignoring it.

Your special Lanth.

His special Lanth?

Are you a knight with a lisp?

Sorry Rick - corrected - I don't get any of Cindy's $50 million media bribe.

Yes, then Trumpy made his decision to close borders to China before Aunty Jacinda a day before, wasn't she pissy eyed.

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I understand it.

I also remember the Jacinda fan club screaming "racist" at anybody suggesting travel restrictions back in January and February. Being woke has made us go very broke.

Haha agreed mate - cringeworthy.

I remember the universities grumping and complaining that students were banned and that we should let them in because the universities would be sure to manage quarantine effectively.

Yes this site is full of crash test dummies. We are going to see the negative effects of this spending for the next 10 years.

People were living in some kind of weird alternative reality when this survey was done. Scared to death through Ardern ramping up the fear in her daily drama class presentations but at the same time on a paid holiday where they could sleep in every day, watch movies and the awful reality of tomorrow intruded only dimly into their state of suspended animation. Captain marvel Jacinda Vers will save us, don't worry, everything is gunna be alright.

Agreed middleman. One months paid vacation with little else to worry about, certainly introduces some biases until reality hits. Kiwis are a fickle bunch.

They are an interesting lot. I vote ACT so I’ll never agree with 98% of them anyway, but I’m doing my absolute best to make sure their choice of leader doesn’t affect me. Kiwi Bond registrations are arriving every week and cash is being stashed away, plus I’ve done a search of potential properties on homes.co.nz to check where I can afford to buy in the dips before the inflation chicken comes home to roost.

Best of luck. You have your eyes open and, importantly, a plan. Turmoil and thus opportunity is inevitable, the only unknowns are the extent.

I’ve been around long enough to know what a standard recession is like to live through and this looks far worse. If the Jacindarites could transport themselves back to January, could they ever see the Pandemic evolving to where we are now? I doubt it. Now think of the economic outlook and ask the same question. I think I’ve got a good handle on it but I think they are are delusional if they put their faith in Labour. They are putting off the inevitable at enormous cost but the outcome is the same; multiple years on $240 a week, barely participating in Society, waiting for some business person to employ them. Meanwhile, the older conservatives like myself will be buying cheap assets.

Buying previous recessions and dips has served me very well but this time I'm struggling to read it. Over the last 12 months I progressively increased my already defensive weighting and went overweight in cash but am so far sitting this out apart from repositioning a bit to AU when the NZD/AUD cross was very favourable. So much conflicting opinion and the word unprecedented is really quite scary when you think about it. I'm not getting that lovin feeling yet.

That’s the risk eh middlemen. Enough people think this is just another ‘cycle’. Activity slows a bit, prices fall a bit, you buy in, things get better, more people but in and you wait for 7/10 years then repeat.

I’m a Dalio fan and he thinks this could be the long cycle coming to an end. No investor alive has had significant money in the market when this last happened 75 years ago (perhaps only David Chaston!) . Everything a generation of investors has known from the 1980’s to now could get flipped completely upside down.

Time is your friend. The young ones here have no idea what it’s going to be like. The coming economic apocalypse will define their lives, just as the Depression, World Wars and Stock Market crashes have defined those of my Ancestors and Me. It’s a crappy time to be economically vulnerable. I have spent a lifetime making sure that won’t be me.

We know exactly what it's going to be like when your bubble bursts you f-ing idiot, why do you think we're so pissed off.

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32, small business owner, cashed up, voted Labour last time, will vote Labour again. Definitely not 'waiting for some business person to employ me,' I AM the businessperson. Enjoy your delusional cliches as you sink further into out of touch political obscurity.

Shall I send you my account details so you can refund me that super money you don't need? No? Then I suggest you shut your mouth about beneficiaries. And in fact, stop referring to yourself as a conservative. Edmund Burke would be spinning in his grave. Your attitude makes it clear what you actually are which is a shameless opportunist, devoid of any concrete values that are not for sale. How about you go crack a book on what conservatism actually is - there's a strong emphasis on improving life for posterity, a concept the self obsessed property accumulators and sovereignty salesmen seem utterly unable to grasp.

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I just pray that if I’m in my 60’s with a mortgage free home and some savings, that I don’t spend any of my time on a website like this while planning on how to buy more houses from underneath young families that deserve them so they have a home, security and feel like a part of society.

It’s actually quite a sad thing to be doing. My grandparents generation (lives through depression and WW2) simply wanted to have their house and some savings. No need for any more. Why we have a generation of men obsessed with property investment with zero concern of the social consequences, I have no idea but it is a little pathetic.

Hahaha exactly right independent. What a post to show ones true EQ, frankly a sad negative old Git. Votes ACT indeed. A great example of exactly what not to become in life. Thank god the younger generations are not this way inclined. Imagine this guy being your father.

No complaints from my children. They know they will be taken care of.

Let them take care of themselves EE it builds resilience and austerity. By all means help them get started. Otherwise you risk the next generation and the next losing the drive you're hoping to pass on. One thing I have learned is that there is more to inheritance than just monetary

You said it Houseworks. Entitlement is not becoming, and sometimes wisdom is all you need to get ahead.

If people who buy houses to let is an inconsistency with your values then there should be a lot more inconsistencies to worry about. I trust your current and future selves identify and "spend" your time on those.

Did twice sorry

That’s minutes of your life wasted replying to my post. Sucker.

Well, this is the second recession in a row where older folks with power over money have gone straight to wealth transfer from the young and upcoming generations to preserve their wealth, that's true. National and the RBNZ screwed the young last time, and Orr's monetary response perpetuates this as it has over the last decade...making your sons' earning capacity ever less valuable. Spare a thought for your sons' ability to stand on their own two feet as a result of this wealth transfer to older folk.

Time to make some major changes to central banking eh.

Probably a bit early for Sainthood,but I'm sure she will be a Dame...thank goodness Sir John Key brought back the honours sytem...

And thus quoth Rogers & Hammerstein “ there is nothing like a dame.” quite precognizant that musical being titled South Pacific

How about a bit of procol harum:
and so it was that later
as the tale was told
her face, at first just ghostly
turned a whiter shade of pale

About that vintage then too, The Stones. Have you seen your mother baby standing in the shadow. Just means, no damehood. Agony Aunt Helen would not approve, methinks.

vman I'd guess she's probably got more class than wanting to become a dame, esp after the worst prime minister the country ever had bought them back for his own ego.

But time will tell I guess.

I'm guessing she's aiming for bourgeoisie security in socialism. Probably something like that €300k+/annum bankcheck beside aunty Helen at the UN.

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Labour's 2017 election manifesto was a work of fiction, they have failed to deliver anything they promised (FBB notably excepted), tax reform, light rail, kiwibuild, house prices, child poverty, immigration cuts. It's been an endless parade of spin, incompetence and failure.

They are very good at promoting brand Saint Jacinda and very poor at delivering anything that actually matters. I say this after giving them the benefit of the doubt and not only voting for them but donating to them every time they came begging for money.

If the Chinese virus hadn't come along they would have been presiding over record immigration and record house prices and gearing up for another round of "aspirational" promises coupled with woke virtue signalling. Instead we got a panicked over reaction lockdown, rule of law thrown out the window, unnecessary economic destruction and generations of debt.

But Kiwi's lap it up don't they. They don't like to think very hard and they love a good cult of personality and being fed the myth of kiwi exceptionalism. Bunch of dopey sheep.

The catch is... that National are even worse. They are toxic waste after what they did to the country during their tenure. Lower than cockroaches and compromised by the CCP. We need a credible opposition and instead we have Ximon the clown act.

I would be overjoyed to be proven wrong, but all I see is things getting worse and worse.

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Thats the real issue...if you start thinking deeply,analysing...and you come up with Simon as the answer...then Houston,we have a problem...

You almost start having sympathy for the American voter.

Hillary or Trump? Hillary or Trump? Hmmmm.....?

Yes and Sir Key delivered everything he promised ?

Did you properly read what I wrote?

Your comment is fair. But the Jacindamaniacs think actually holding Labour to their election promises is somehow mitigated by National being garbage. That isn't how accountability works, especially when you attacked them for 'neglect' and 'inaction' and then delivered even less than they did.

the problem national have is who is the leader in waiting that people will support, if you look at the top ten not too much there that has personality and support from other members.
the only good news with this poll is the mps that purchased there list seat through massive donations from head office may not get back in

If Labour romp home it may be history making - never has such an incompetent government trounced it's main opposition.
Any other contenders?
And I will put it out there - I wouldn't call Key's governments incompetent, overall (sure there were elements of incompetence, ie. ChCh). I just didn't agree with much of their policy.

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Key was competent at doing nothing. Hard to fail to achieve your promises if you don't make any.

Oh he promised to fix the housing crisis remember although forgot it was a crisis when he was elected.

And reneg on the smacking referendum even though 80% of the country wanted to discipline their children as they saw fit....but we couldn't have the next generation of taxpayer balking out of work because they were smacked like the previous generation was!!

He was competent at becoming and staying PM. Good at accumulating political and not spending it on achievement. As was even said on NBR:

He came, he saw, he left.

A storm of monumental proportions is bearing down. We face it with a master of spin at the helm backed by a divided and largely lightweight crew. There is a very long way to go between now and September.

May to September. Winter mostly, subduing often. Announcement of the new tax regime mandatory. Big impact? Probably.

Spraying short term fix money around is the easy part. Already hundreds of job seekers are chasing any vacancies hard and the reality of grim times ahead is beginning to dawn on the great unwashed.

Yep. Can't wait to see how much of my hard earned dollar actually makes it into my pocket.

A master of spin at the helm...backed by a lightweight crew...I thought John Key and the Nats were voted out ?

I am being unfair,Gerry Brownlee was no lightweight...well,not physically anyway;
An excerpt from his bio..
A Roman Catholic, he attended St Bede's College where he twice failed to gain University Entrance.[5] After leaving high school, he worked in his family's timber business and received training in carpentry. After qualifying as a builder, he retrained as a teacher and taught woodwork, technical drawing and Māori, over a period of twelve years, at Ellesmere College, and at his alma mater, St Bede's.[

Sent one of my boys to St. Bedes for a year, wasn't impressed. He and his four brothers converted to Burnside for the better; John Key, Rob Fyfe & Hayley Westenra's old haunt. Believe my kids are all better for it, seen the light and off making their wealth overseas.

Yep, and along came winston peters to anoint this motley crew. At 2.7% the electorate has signalled its verdict on that.

And that is where it is quite simple.And to run a country,you think as a basic you should be able to read the rules and count...2 things which national missed.Forgot how MMP works and couldn't count the total numbers required...

Wasn't numbers, it was the peters principle.

Typically takes a year or more for a surge of popularity for a govt from an external crisis like this to dissipate (See 1st Gulf War, 9/11). Labour have it in the bag. Just hope that they can sideline the Greens (though expect hard left tactical voting will see them back in).

News from the bowels of the Nats headquarters,special meeting of the 'secret handshake club' to convene this weekend to authorise the full unleashing of the Hosk,let him off the chain...double down on the misogyny, the 'this lot',Cindy,Taxinda, COL,the'if Stephen Joyce was in charge'..."no one in this government knows how to run a business..."
He knows this,cos Paula Bennett told him when she was running through her thoughts on fiscal deficits

Are you the fart from the bowel?

Are you the turd?

Flush me please, out of my misery.

Ok...only cos "if its yellow,let it mellow,if it's brown,flush it down..." Water shortage in AKL...

Don't forget to wash your hands little sparrow ;-0

*Chuckle* interest.co.nz commenters, meet reality.

Reality isn't until it is. But being a pragmatist I would expect you know that.

Doesn't say a lot for NZ when the previous Govt and the present Govt consist of of 2 people.
Key/English and Ardern/Robertson.

So true

Well NG, think you will recall Muldoon governed for nine years entirely on his own. Perhaps two is better? But hardly a good comparison or scenario, whichever way you look at it.

Good comment. Say what they want about labour, but they're is nothing on the blue side that inspires any confidence that they can take the country forward. Labour deserve more time,but they need a way to jettison their prominent but weaker elements (twyford, lees-galloway etc) and actually deliver on things. I'm optimistic.

Only because we chose to vote it that way. Maybe we should vote a little more laterally in convention with the MMP ideology. Instead of bastardising MMP like NZ does, lets make the politicians work for their money and vote how their policies align with our values. Don't be scared.

The Nats must be thinking where did this all go wrong as they mull things over a single malt at the club...all they had to do was have JK stay on for the election,a few months later,he retires,a smooth handover to the steady hands of Bill English...it could have all been so easy...
And humour aside,I think that could have been a good option...but we will never know.

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JK had a house to sell to a Chinese buyer so the election couldn't wait.

BE said there was no housing crisis. Now I don't agree on the word crisis but serious problem yes. Made me vote for Winston First to try and keep Labour and the Greens honest. Maybe its time to vote for Labour based on their current polling. Never voted for Labour before. Keep the Greens and Winston First out. Labour may do better on there own without support from Greens. Who knows. Terrible choices.

Don't do it. Communism is worse than Capitilism.

i was waiting to read this is a rogue poll but when i read this
"What will be interesting is to see how the polls move (if they do) as the focus moves more towards the economic response than the public health response.
But no one should fool themselves that this sort of gap would be easy to close by September. "
from nationals internal pollster i have to take it that this poll is pretty much on the money.
BUT labours support will decline by September and will be below 50% , but by how much,
and those counting out WP must be kidding, his politics and the thought of many that they had better get him back in to hold labour in check will see him through again, most likely by getting national voters whom see that is a viable option rather than vote for a weaker opposition

Critical thinking required by previous national voters of which I am not. A vote for National may be a wasted vote if Labour are sitting around 45% come election. The Greens appear stable at around 5% so that's the election right there unless WP pulls of the near impossible persuading some Labour and National to NZFIRST.

Very true,this could actually get worse for the Nats,wily Winston wil call on all those years of experience and like you say,what ever folks say about him & the 'COL' as some in here call them,MMP has done what it is supposed to and stopped anyone having absolute power and has the effect of drawing everyone closer to the centre,smoothing off the sharp edges.So unless the National Party can understand how MMP works and get viable partners,they will be toast.

Winston has little chance of re-election. He's old, worn out, has angered most of his voters with various petit betrayals, and is staring at an SFO investigation, and his coalition partners hate him as much as the rest of the country do. Labour could go for a snap election and cheerfully deliver the coup d'grace to that toxic dwarf.

Yes. Worst time in the world to do a poll/survey while putting the alarmist fear of your 3 in 100 chances of catching COVID. The government have certainly ramped this one up into a political machination. I have been in very close contact with the virus (unfortunately because of government decisions), and have not managed to contract or spread it while travelling between my workplace in Wellington and home in Christchurch. Go figure.

And yet it was a 50:50 call in February. What fickle creatures we are

Considering the absolute shitshow we are in right now, a very convenient way to gain votes is to play tough on CCP/China. Ironically, either NZF or Nats can do it effectively. NZF is in the government, and it means they only have a limited room to maneuver when playing the China card. Nats are in an even worse position, as they have tied themselves up so much with the majority of ethnic Chinese voters who migrated from Mainland China during Key's years.

Paradoxically,these bad polls are probably keeping Mr Bridges in a job,no one wants to be passed the baton if they are going to get a pasting,as they will be rolled as well straight after.
The only things in Nationals favour will be if we have a resurgence in Covid,the economy looks really ugly and possibly cannabis reform.
Or they could get worse if things starts heading up with a trans tasman bubble,we stand out against the rest of the world and last but not least Jamie Lee-Ross unleashed at election time...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/107914931/jamilee-ross-and-sim...
...Ross: Yeah they're good people. Now there's no catch or anything to it. You may recall at the dinner they did discuss candidacy, and another Chinese candidate.
Bridges: Two MPs, yeah.
Ross: Colin Zhang? The younger one, he's put his name in for Candidates' College and so I assume he'll get through and we'll make some decisions as a Party further down the track as to what we want to do with candidates.
Bridges: I mean, it's like all these things, it's bloody hard. You've only got so much space. Depends where we're polling, you know? All that sort of thing… two Chinese would be nice, but would it be one Chinese or one Filipino? What do we do?
Ross: Two Chinese would be more valuable than two Indians, I have to say.....

'if the economy looks really ugly' .... if ?

Correction...'uglier..."

JA go join National.

Would be interesting to see if Jacindamania worked for them. ROFL.

They might as well ditch ACT, by not providing them with a safe seat . If Seymour manages to hold it , ( and i think he could) , then good for him .

on these polls paul goldsmith the MP for Epsom would lose his list seat, maybe he should just tell Epsom to vote who they want in between him and david Seymour, if so we could see two parties disappear this election

Nah, goldy will be going on the list. MMP means Act getting the Epsom seat is much more valuable than National getting nothing.

he is already number two on the list , but under these numbers both him and PB will lose their seats,
I can not see that happening and think they may be safe, but ACT are useless unless he can drag more Mps in and at this stage he is only looking at one more

John Key quotes:
..."We're definitely going to get through, and actually going to get through better than some other countries," Key told the Golfizz podcast.
....Current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has come in for criticism from some quarters for not immediately quarantining all new entrants in New Zealand, though she argued it was not feasible given the amount of entrants before the borders closed.
Key understands those arguments, but believes the low levels of community transmission shows that it wasn't a major blunder.
...Key has praised Ardern's communication skills during the crisis, and says although leading the country in difficult times can be a tough task, it also has its benefits.

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If Labour win in a landslide, they will really have a once in a generation opportunity in the next election to do some really fundamental things like:

- Shake up the tax system: introduce wealth / land taxes. More environmental taxes. Make first 20K of income tax free. Reduce business tax.
- Build a crapload of housing: social and affordable. Stop all the BS about a KB reset - just build housing themselves, and sell at no profit.
- Truly reform the RMA- to make it both more 'development friendly' and more environmental. Not at all mutually exclusive goals

Can't be that hard can it?

Based on their performance this last term where they delivered almost nothing they promised, and indeed failed spectacularly at almost everything they tried, - other than proliferate spending on endless working parties for their mates. Do you really believe they will do better in a second term? Their only competence is in spending money. They rest they are just fumbling around in the dark at.

Based on what I just witness post GFC under National, they won’t become truly terrible until their third term.

No, I don't have a lot of faith in them to deliver, sadly.
But at this point, at least they give me the merest hint of hope...unlike the blue party who are just awful and bereft of anything meaningful, positive or inspired.

The incoming National government in 2008 actually launched more working groups and enquiries than this new Labour government did.

But hey let's not look at the facts, let's just parrot National's neat-sounding sound bites.

I think the main difference was the decisive nature of Labour's 2017 manifesto about what they would do, only to endlessly bury any and all progress in working groups.

From memory, National's 2008 campaign was more about change for the sake of change and promising to stop the stuff they were opposed to - there wasn't really a bigger picture beyond that.

100% right Foyle

Hopefully these billions they’re spending will result in economic growth and not crippling debt.

Fortunately we have a lifeline in China who will be more than willing to help us out of debt in return for land, fisheries and ports.

national had the same when JK came to power, did he roll back WFF like he promised no, did he get rid of free student fees no, did he reform the RMA no.
unless JA is looking at retiring at the end of next term she will not do anything to drastic, its all about getting another term so dont rock the boat

Glad to see TOP irrelevant on 0.1%. God they have some truly terrible ideas. Wasted vote.

Bridges has destroyed National and too gutless to resign in the best interests of the party’s survival. I’ve been a Nat for 45 years and can not say I’ll continue to support them. What do we stand for under Bridges?? Soft. Weak. No policy that anyone’s interested in. Self-interest only. Cowardliness. Bridges is a blouse, and if we’re to have a blouse as our leader, at least let’s have one with guts and strength. C’mon Judith, do the right thing and and roll this wet paper bag.

This govt has:
1. Destroyed the economy
2. Spent spent spent + plan to increase the countries debt by ~150% in 4 years
3. Take away peoples basic freedoms
4. Turn the country into an intrusive overprotective nana + police state
5. No doubt a plan is coming to increase taxes primarily on the middle class workers to pay for this mess
....and the public love them for it....!?! Who said people weren't rational?
I won't be voting for Labour, although the alternatives are not that fantastic either, might have considered Greens, but that is jsut another vote for Labour and NZ First will jump in bed with anyone who keeps them relevant...

Where is the McGillicuddy Serious Party when you need them, at least their policies were more amusing than these clowns

Start your own party - find out if you have any useful ideas, and whether your fellow citizens agree with them.

National is a CCP fan club and Labour/Greens are unfit to govern on their own so we need Winston back to keep Labour/Green from wrecking the economy.

The price of which will be another few hundred million to horse racing and more commercial fishing industry concessions but overall its a small price to pay.

Yes we should have kept the boarders open and strengthened our China relationship. It would all be smooth sailing now if we did. Is that you Simon?

Funny seeing all the haters. This article lays out facts!! Polling data that illustrates the support for and endorsement of, Ardern and Labour. Everyone in here complaining is running against the tide of public opinion. Bridges and his lot will be summarily rejected by New Zealanders in September. Make your minds up to it!!

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