1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: National hits rock bottom at 29%; Todd Muller gets 0.2% in the preferred prime minister ranks; Mark Mitchell believed to be running for National leader too

1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll: National hits rock bottom at 29%; Todd Muller gets 0.2% in the preferred prime minister ranks; Mark Mitchell believed to be running for National leader too
Simon Bridges

A 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll, unveiled the day before National MPs are due to vote on the party's leadership, shows support for National diving 17 percentage points to 29%.

Meanwhile support for Labour hit a record high for the poll, climbing 18 percentage points from the last poll conducted in February, to 59%.

Support for the man of the moment, Simon Bridges, slumped 6 percentage points in the preferred prime minister ranks, to only 5%. 

However, his leadership challenger, Todd Muller, received support of only 0.2%.

1 News said it understood National MP, Mark Mitchell, was also planning to put his hat in the ring for leader.

Bridges on Wednesday called all MPs to Wellington for a meeting on Friday, pushing Muller to put up or shut up. 

Jacinda Ardern's popularity was sky-high at 63% - up 21 percentage points from February. 

According to the poll, Labour would get 79 seats in Parliament, National would get 38 and ACT 3. A party/parties need 61 to govern.

Neither the Greens nor NZ First would make it back into Parliament. 

Had there been an election in February, when the last poll was done, National would've been able to govern with the support of ACT. 

However the new 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll, conducted up until Wednesday, paints an even more dire picture for National than Newshub-Reid Research Poll, conducted up until Saturday.

Here are the results in full:

1 NEWS-COLMAR BRUNTON POLL

(Conducted between May 16 and 20. Previous poll done in February)

Preferred party:

  • Labour: 59% (+18% points)
  • National: 29% (-17% points)
  • Greens: 4.7% 
  • NZ First: 2.9%
  • ACT: 2.2% 
  • Maori Party: 1.2% 

Preferred prime minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: 63% (+21% points)
  • Simon Bridges: 5% (-6% points)
  • Judith Collins: 3% (no change)
  • Winston Peters: 1% (-2% points)
  • Todd Muller: 0.2%
  • Nikki Kaye: 0.4%

NEWSHUB-REID RESEARCH POLL

(Conducted between May 8 and 16. Previous poll done in February)

Preferred party:

  • Labour: 57% (+14% points)
  • National: 31% (-13% points)
  • Greens: 5.5% (-0.1% points)
  • NZ First: 2.7% (-0.9% points)
  • ACT: 1.8% (no change)
  • Maori Party: 0.9% (no change)
  • Conservatives: 1.0% (+0.3% points)
  • TOP: 0.1% (-0.5% points)

Preferred prime minister:

  • Jacinda Ardern: 60% (+21% points)
  • Simon Bridges: 4.5% (-6.1% points)
  • Judith Collins: 3.1% (-0.7% points)

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

79 Comments

Not surprising really.

"Todd Muller, receives support of only 0.2%"

Watch out Jacinda!

What was she pulling at 20th in the Labour Part before she got the tap?

And yet she was thrust into the top job at the last minute because the public knew who she was, liked her, and Labour thought she was their best shot. And she won.

Good luck pulling the same trick with Mr Nobody.

Jacinda is still only a one trick pony with a sting of failures.
Won?? No Winny appointed her.
Funny at the preferred PM polls. JC number 3, where us Labour.... there is no one else in Labour.

14
up

You're really grasping at straws now mate. Why would they even put a second Labour name on the poll?

I don't think I have seen one single solitary claim that if Todd Muller were leader someone would consider voting Nats, as happened over and over for a few years with Ardern, even though it was obvious some were saying that because of her looks.

Bridges is awful. I think the argument is take away the negative and they do better even is muller adds nothing.

Seems like a poor argument given that according to these numbers Bridges is still 25x more popular as preferred PM than Muller. And that's with Jacinda 12.6x more popular than Bridges. Think about this, for every person who prefers Muller as PM there are THREE HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN people who prefer Jacinda.

In terms of Bridges vs Muller, there is always a distortion caused by a beneficial public perception of the reality and profile associated with being the actual incumbent. For example when Geoffrey Palmer stepped in for David Lange, overnight he became around 40% of the poll for the preferred prime minister. The day before he had been about 2%.

Fair point. What I'm emphasising though is the size of the gap. Even 12 Jacindas for 1 Simon is an absurd gap. Given that no one knew who Todd Muller was until about three days ago I don't like his chances of crossing that canyon.

These "preferred prime minister" surveys are extremely dumb. I've been in one. You get asked the question. Your answer is obvsiously constrained by the incumbents. Why would you say that you preferred Todd Muller over Simon Bridges before he is/was leader of the National Party? That's like telling the pollster your preferred PM is Kanwaljit Singh MP. That may be so, but it's a silly answer when there's about a 0% chance of it becoming reality. The other reason it's dumb is that the PM is hardly a presidential role: their ministers, their overarching party political platform, and the composition of Parliament is much more infuential than who is PM. But that's harder to ask people over the phone.

it will be interesting to see if labour do deals with the greens and NZ first, i have always been in favour of lowering the threshold to 4% and getting rid of the win a seat and bring in a MP, that should not happen unless the party polls over 4%

Yes very. I imagine they would very much like to help the greens out, however if they just missed out on one election they will probably survive until the next so maybe they would put off that support until then. As for NZF, on the one hand they seem good at stealing crucial votes off national but on the other they aren’t a very good fit for labour. They will be gone altogether if they don’t get in this election and winny calls it a (very long) day.

Greens got in last time despite a very efficient self hatchet job. They have the advantage of an international profile and a dedicated percentage in the electorate who are compelled to vote for them willy nilly. Not so NZF. And therein lies the quandary for Labour. Despite all the consistent outcry NZF have been neither the poodle n or the tail wagging the dog. Despite WP being perceived as the most impossible identity to associate with in parliament, the coalition has remained steadfast. Would then Labour want to govern with just the Greens? Because if they were to and it disintegrated, which is very likely, then that would cost them long term, in exactly the same manner as the Bolger/Shipley lot invited on themselves with their slipshod coalition. NZF will be given an Epsom somewhere up north.

Your point about expat support for the greens is interesting. During the good times when the dream is of one day returning to NZld to raise a family or spend the golden years, a party that supposedly has the environment as its primary focus might superficially seem appealing. But when the economy goes tits up and your world comes crashing in forcing you to run for home where there are no jobs, your focus will shift to identifying which group of politicians is best equipped to steer us through.

Which apparently is labour at the moment according to this poll.

I'd substitute 'Ardern' for 'labour' in your statement. Just now it's a simple personality contest, the poll on which team is best equipped will be taken in September when the world will look very different.

Oh yes but the hardcore willy nillys are pretty unshakeable.Once you learn to knit your own underwear, you will understand that.

Hardcore toilet composters or born to rule epsom grammarians don't decide which government we have, short attention spanners hold the keys to the kingdom.

I reckon Jacinda's international profile could hit the greens' expat support hard.

True that

Yep, if your news sources were mainly tabloid I think you'd be right. If forced to endure another term of Ardern's didactic infantilisation I'd rather that occur without the influence of the marxist faction in the Green Party.

So when John Key was playing the everyman's working class friend you were okay with that?

Those recommendations came out of the 2012 review of MMP, they were things that we wanted by the majority of people, but when they reached parliament for discussion and introduction into electoral, they were immediately binned by Judith Collins, never seeing the light of day. That was one of the things that woman did, that will see me despise her for as long as she remains in parliament. Sheer arrogance and that arrogance is baked in now, with the way the Nats seem to think they own governance of this country.

The problem with MMP is that it was corrupted and destabilised at the outset. The Royal Commission decreed there was absolutely no need to increase the number of MPs. Yet such was the rotten lot in parliament then, they calculated in the most cynical manner imaginable, that if the electorate was sick of them, they would hardly be likely to vote for MMP if meant another thirty of the same blighters. David Lange recorded that act, as the most despicable he had ever witnessed in parliament. Rotten lot then. Has it gotten any better. Don’t think so.

24
up

We can all see the nine years of damage that National did with creating a false economy, that was totally dependent on selling off NZ to foreign powers. And too busy enriching themselves in the process.

11
up

Let's hope Labour can get rid of Winston. It would also be nice if they promised less and did more.

If Labour got rid of Winny, they would not have a chance of winning the election after. Winny has kept the Labour pie in the sky lala incheck. Without Winny it turns to nuts on steroids.

It's just a pity it took so many people 9 years to see it, when it was evident after their 1st term that they weren't actually 'ambitious for New Zealand' like John Key said they were.

That was already going under Labour, who were fine with it because you felt rich when your house went up in value and forgot your were being punitively taxed for every dollar over $60K.

The Nats somehow managed to make it worse. I still don't understand how, but my guess was there was a lot of things coming to a head under Labour (councils, RMA, building supplies) that they weren't interested in fixing or looking at or outright didn't care. To their credit, they did start out with things like depreciation coming off rental properties and all that carry on, but then they just lost interest, roughly about the same time Labour started imploding and they realised they didn't really have to do anything. It looked like English would get things back on track from the social investment side of things, but here we are.

Yeah, punitively punished by our ridiculously high 33% tax rate - the 29th highest top tax rate in the OECD! Or rather, the 8th lowest (out of 36).

Don't kid yourself - NZ is a low tax country. All the countries we like to compare ourselves to (Australia, US, UK, the Scandanavians, Canada, etc.) have higher top tax rates than we do. The problem is and always has been that Kiwis are unproductive workers (hard workers, maybe, but unproductive), meaning salaries are low and the taxes feel harsher.

Mark Mitchell, oh lordy!

Shares in listed popcorn producers are spiking by the minute...

Which terrible option will they go with? The only one that stands a chance is Nikki Kaye and I don’t think she wants to be leader. So I think they should choose Muller just to get Nikki as deputy.

I think they'll go with Nikki Kaye next election. Might not be a good fit for National, but a better fit as PM than any of these other clowns.

arent they the stalking horse for mark mitchell?bridges will get ambushed.

It is purely delusional if anyone thinks Labour + Green + someone else are capable of developing an economic development model that is independent of using or selling natural resources and absorbing quick foreign money by importing more people.

Well someone bloody well has to, we sold just about everything under the Nats even though people were/are very, very uneasy about it.

Translation : CCP says no.

Bruce Lee once said...'A big head needs a big basket below the chopping block....kung pow!'
Waxing on the future of Te Party...where is the diversity? No Maori, No Pacifica, no lesos, no gays no bi's and certainly no transgender. Very dissappointing lack of 'Real Life' in Te Party, you stiff white rednecks need to catch on....dare you to stand up and tell your party whips to go sling it. In the meantime...the challenge is not to put another white guy and white woman up for the sake of your electoral future. There, the challenge is laid. The rest is up to you.

Maybe I should stand?

If you are like your namesake and experience religious visions bishop Brian's party would welcome you .

He had many talents.

The poll is a farce. Like one of those fruitcake dictator states with a sole candidate who is exclusively promoted by a fawning media during a time of national crisis and then pronounced to be the 'winner' in a rigged contest against an opposition starved of oxygen. Ardern and her ministers will be put to the test over the next few months in defending her party's risky triangulation strategy. She can't hide Kelvie, Clarkie and the other lame duckers for much longer.

I think the poll is just the reality when a pandemic/war/etc occurs. And as much as you probably don’t like jacinda you have to admit she comes across spectacularly well. The only chance National have is if our Covid response turns out to be over the top. And at the moment that is not looking likely; we may end up better off economically than most other countries if we can spend a decent amount of time in levels one and two.

Yes, how quickly we forget that earlier in the year the same polls had the nats and ACT able to govern alone. Interesting those same polls show overwhelming support from nat voters for full lockdown. Even those of my mates who are secretly in love with Judith grudgingly agree.

Cometh the our,cometh the man...or in this case,cometh the woman.
In a time of global upheaval,it was Ms Ardern that shone out as a leader and Mr Bridges star dimmed greatly,whether you agree with the direction we took,no one can argue that it was brilliantly lead and articulated as shown by the polls.

'comes across spectacularly well' .... err, no. You mistake me for a reality TV fan, kardashian groupie, social media mainliner or Simon Cowell. I have no doubt she does just that if you are one of the above but after a hard scrabble lifetime where I have encountered numerous posers and parvenu's I have developed an aversion to the superficial.

10
up

John Key is long gone

It is already well over the top!!
The halo will be gone when people of nZ realise what the consequences of the extended lockdown are!
Which part of zero cases don’t they Understand and yet we are still scared to go within a metre of people at work and can’t do anything!
Leading a country or business is making decisions as circumstances change, but it is all about control of the NZ people with our PM!

15
up

Which part of 14 day incubation period do you not understand? Until you have a basic grasp of this term please refrain from these comments.

10
up

“ exclusively promoted by a fawning media” - how unfair, if only all media was as impartial as mike hosking.

Yep, NZ's own Sean Hannity, telling it like it is.

telling it like his boomer audience likes to hear it is more the case

you talk about fawning media, its all for blue imagine if someone did this on live TV for labour or the greens or NZ first they would be sacked
I'll fight for your businesses. I'll fight for your family's future. I'll fight for your homes, I'll fight for your farms. I'll fight for your right to employ those who can't employ themselves. "Stay safe. Stay smart. And stay blue." mark richardson
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/mark-richardson-s-bizarr...

12
up

Fawning media - Garner, Hosking, Soper, Tova O'Brien, Andrea Vance, Mark Richardson, Sean Plunkett, heck even Steven Joyce gets a column these days. The entire nzme radio network is pretty much National.

the whole lineup for newstalk ZB are national supporters, even the moderate ones let it slip every now and again, gone are the days of making sure you come across impartial and attack all politicians on policy ala paul homes

Looks like first past the post that could be a worry with Clark, Twineford , Lees Galloway
Capital gains tax, increased taxes, more getting told what we are loud to do.
No freedom of speech.

You missed the papal bull from her holiness that there will be no capital gains tax. She didn't rule out other capital taxes though. Labours strategy of pinching nationals soft centre vote will limit her and Robbos manoeuvring space on tax.

bad move by nats-- even if bridges is a deadweight - 6 weeks of jacinda every lunchtime -- very successful in stamping it out -- making us feel we are special / different - massive lollipop scramble for interest group aftere interest group - 12 billion plus dirct to wages of people who would have had nothing - the poll refelcts those things nothing else -- be downhill from here - faster and faster as more and more housholds feel the effects of this -- looks panicky feels panicky - is panicky - 10 % swing in a month easy 20% in 2 back to all square in three

Yep. I suspect from things you've posted you are plugged into real business. We are going gangbusters just now on catch up but a couple of months out is starting to look really ugly. The lack of capability behind the all dancing all singing leader is deeply disturbing. The electorate is a victorious sports team coming down off its endorphin high and slowly realising that winning its first game is just a start of a season long brutal struggle ahead.

What if tomorrow Simon puts forward The Crusher and she accepts the leadership ? That will sort Labour in September.

She's said no and the lady's not for changing. Besides, she's too polarising in a world where vaguely amorphous but good on the telly is where it is at.

not for turning, I think is more accurate, if to draw on past large political identities.

If the Greens want more people to vote for them they should drop the loonies like Golriz.

And a few others - like merchants-of-hate identity politicians Genter and Davidson, or Provincial economic saboteur Sage.

It would be good to get some actual perspective rather than insults - maybe you both could elaborate in specific terms as to why you don't like these green party mps?

Don't forget to factor in that if National had been in power under Covid, Winston and Labour would have literally lost about 40,000 of their supporting demographic by now. By all accounts, that many mainly oldies would have perished. There's no way National's Neo-Liberals would have shut down the economy. They would have dutifully followed Trump and the UK. This would have been devastating to both NZF and Labour.
So anybody over 70 years old, and I am, or over say 6o years with chronic health problems, should now be eternally grateful to Labour and NZF.
It's even coming out now that Australia's Scott Morrison would have gone the Neo-Liberal way if he hadn't noticed Jacinda's early attraction of global kudos.

What a load of BS! National would have moved faster to shut the boarder. It was a no brainer! Therein lies the problem - those in power have none! They also wouldn't have shut down businesses like butchers and green grocers or those that could still operate just fine without other human contact. What a laugh that you think Scott Morrison takes his ques from from the Commandant of Fort Neive! Streetwise- LOL!

And yet it's National and those on the right who are decrying for not opening up sooner. Which one is it?

National should have been challenging the leadership role a year ago, not just a few months away from an election - all of this controversy around leadership and infighting is just undermining their position further

If they aren't clear on what they stand for and who will lead them there then it just weakens the party as a whole
Again Nationals problem has been self-interest, instead of a broader vision of what the country would look like under their leadership, and how that would benefit the whole, not just the parts in their constituency to appeal to middle ground voters who ultimately swing the balance at election time

National + Act led the polls prior to Wuflu. The current surge That Ardern is enjoying is entirely on the back of that massive exposure and a media that has fawned over her in spite of Labor's terrifying dithering on border quarantine (finally instituted only on 10th April), and late response in general - entirely focused on Christchurch Massacre until just a day or two before hand when infections started to increase beyond levels they could ignore.

Bridges is, has been and will always be a total embarrassment to NZ.

He is not a leader. I mean seriously would you follow this guy into battle on the front line game of thrones style or leave him to run towards the dark enemy and perish?

Jacinda on the other hand would easily have the country following her she’s a natural leader.

The best thing for NZ would be if Lippy Bridges remained as king of the National party goons. That way an actual good government can continue to govern without having to worry about any form of competence in the National Party.

How short people's memories are. This Government was on track to deliver precisely zero flagship policies by the 2020 election, and had walked away from almost all of them (save the foreign buyer ban). Ardern was going to have to defend her track record in a 'year of delivery' that just delivered more nothing. Until Covid19 happened.

Frankly, I'd rather have a semi-competent opposition that can articulate a convincing alternative to the current government if it results in the government actually following through on policies, or at least feeling like there are consequences for not doing so.

First find your semi-competent opppostion.

National has a pile of ex ministers who have successfully run various portofolios, delivering results under leadership that punished failure through the long climb out from Cullen's empty-cupboard structural deficits, GFC and Earthquakes. Coalition is an utter joke by comparison - entirely lacking in ministerial talent, they have failed to deliver anything and have overseen a steady decline in almost every social and economic KPI.

So much to unpack in that one statement.

"National has a pile of ex ministers who have successfully run various portofolios" - yep they successfully enabled wealth transfer upwards, ran down social and critical path services and utterly betrayed the people of christchurch. Some even went off and got high powered roles in the private sector after their destruction was complete.

"climb out from Cullen's empty-cupboard structural deficits" - not even close to the truth

"GFC " - bailed out the banks like all western governments, and watched their money evaporate in corporate profit and bonuses

I think that in very difficult circumstances-unprecedented-to use the overworked word, the government has handled the crisis well. However, I do worry that they may fail to handle the recovery well enough. Not only is there a lack of talent-Tyford being the most obviously unfit for high office, but a lack of understanding of how the economy can best rise to the challenges facing it. I don't know how much better National would be and I wouldn't vote for Bridges, but I might be persuaded to vote for Muller if he can clearly articulate a path forward.