A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; more rate cuts, commodity prices hold high, Council rates rise fast, online spending leaps, swaps rise, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB cut some carded rates today, but none are lower than their "price-match promise".

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut term deposit rates across the board today. TSB also cut TD rates.

STAYING HIGH
The May commodity price index fell marginally, but by any standards it is still high, both on world price terms and NZD terms. It means our export prices are stronger than the import prices we have to pay. ANZ chose to highlight the -9% fall year-on-year. But in NZD terms the fall is just -2.6% on that bassis and May 2019 was unusually high. We have been on a rising trend since early 2016.

STILL RISING AT TWICE CPI
Local authorities say their rates and regulatory income rose +6.3% in the year to March 2020. Rates rose +6.4% but regulatory income was up only +5.6% which is well down from the +34% rise in the year to March 2019.

HIT IN POCKET
Westpac Australia has issued its AML/CFT mea culpa for it institutionally not picking up tens of thousands of potentially problematic transactions that were the subject of AUSTRAC action. It says its faults were ones of omission and not intentional, and the result of a combination of weak systems and management oversight. 38 individuals were disciplined including having bonus payments docked by AU$13.2 mln. In addition, the CEO and their twelve group executives were docked AU$6.9 mln for their oversight misdemeanors. Interestingly, AUSTRAC would never have known about the issue if Westpac had not turned itself in.

STILL VERY SUCCESSFUL, JUST LESS SO
There was another set of NZ Govt. bond tenders totaling $1.05 bln today. The $500 mln April 2025 bond had bids totaling $1020 mln and far less than the equivalent tender in the past three events. The accepted yield was 0.42% and up from 0.22% at the prior tender. The $350 mln April 2027 bond had bids totaling $617 mln and also far less than the equivalent tender in the past three events. The accepted yield was 0.62% and up from 0.37% at the prior tender. The $200 mln April 2033 bond had bids totaling $467 mln and again far less than the equivalent tender in the past three events. The accepted yield was 1.04% and up from 0.73% at the prior tender.

LOCKDOWN WINNERS
April was a strong month for online spending, up +47% over April last year according to the Marketview survey. Spending at domestic online stores drove this growth, as spending at these sites was up +88% over April last year. Spending at domestic sites accounts for nearly three quarters of all online spending. Sales at international sites fell -8% in April.

TRUCKERS FURIOUS
The Government’s +5.3% increase in road user charges from 1 July is "a kick in the guts to the trucking industry that kept the country moving during lockdown and must be cancelled", says the National Road Carriers Association.

HIT HARD BUT JOBS HELD
Xero's Insights report says year-on-year revenue for small business fell by -10% in March and -34% in April, while the number of jobs in the small business sector dropped by -4% in March (approx. 24,000 employees) before leveling out as the Government wage subsidy began to be paid.

BIG NEW MARKET RESTORED
China has now included red deer meat in its list of approved consumer meats, opening new markets for the New deer farming industry. In fact, venison from NZ is the only imported red deer variety listed in the Chinese regulations, and prior to its suspension accounted for 10% of New Zealand exports of venison. This comes as Rabobank analysts say global beef production and demand is expected to fall in 2020.

LOCAL UPDATE
There were zero new Covid-19 cases again today in New Zealand, so now only the same one person is left with it in the whole country. We are now at thirteen days with zero new cases.

AUSTRALIA UPDATE
In Australia, there have been 7240 cases (+12 since this time yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just under 92% (unchanged). 25 people are in hospital there (-1) with 5 in ICU (+1). There are now 498 active cases in Australia (-3).

GLOBAL UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 6,429,500 which is rising at a slightly slower pace than recently. American cases rose by +20,000 since this time yesterday to 1,851,500. US deaths now exceed 107,000. Global deaths now exceed 386,000.

DIVE & RISE
In Australia, data out today revealed that retail sales plunged a record -18% in April, while strong iron ore prices delivered a AU$8.8 bln trade surplus on top of the +AU$10.4 bln surplus in March.

HUMUNGOUS & ABOUT TO GET BIGGER
Credit rating agency Fitch reckons global fiscal easing announcements now exceed 7% of world GDP.

'WE CHOOSE BEIJING'
HSBC's Asia chief has come out in support of Beijing's security law for Hong Kong. In doing that they have abandoned their long policy of neutrality in Hong Kong political matters. Standard Chartered Bank has done the same.

EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
The S&P500 ended up +1.4% in their session earlier today. But that was tame compared to most European markets which saw new huge gains of up to +3.8% (in Frankfurt, but only +2.6% in London). Shanghai and Hong Kong have opened today down -0.3% but Tokyo is unchanged in early trade. Both the ASX200 and the NZX50 Capital Index are up +0.5% in late trade.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Yesterday, there was little change at the short end, but 10 year swap rates rose +5 bps to 0.80%. Swap rates may have moved similarly today. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details yet but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is still unchanged at 0.26%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps at 1.01%. The China Govt 10yr is holding at 2.81%. But the NZ Govt 10yr yield is up another +8 bps to 0.94%. The UST 10yr is up another +4 bps to 0.74%

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar has continued to firm against the greenback, up now to just on 64.2. Against the Aussie we are also up at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 57.2 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up at 69.2.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The price of Bitcoin is firmer today by +1.8% from this this time yesterday to US$9,671. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».