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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; few rate changes, giant Crown deficit, higher electricity bills for many, GHGs reduced, swaps slip, NZD slips, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; few rate changes, giant Crown deficit, higher electricity bills for many, GHGs reduced, swaps slip, NZD slips, & more
ID 22702269 © Daniaphoto | Dreamstime.com

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Bank of Baroda cut their fixed mortgage rates today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here, so far.

GIANT DEFICIT
In no surprise to anyone, the ten month Crown Accounts to April were a shocker. The largest deficit ever was reported of -$12.8 bln for the month and -$27.6 bln for the ten months to date. Gross debt rose more than budgeted to almost 30% of GDP. More here. In fact, they are borrowing so fast, tomorrow we will probably report that more than $100 bln is now owed by Government (and taxpayers of New Zealand).

FACTORY OUTPUT WEAK
One of the final pieces of data for the Q1-2020 GDP result due in a week was out today, manufacturing trade. It revealed weak growth of course. But it is 'positive' that finished goods inventories didn't blow out.

ABSOLUTE GHGs REDUCE
In a quiet release today, Statistics NZ revealed the latest update of our greenhouse gas performance. Households increased their emissions by almost +12% between 2007 and 2018 and that added +1033 kilotonnes of GHGs. But industry actually saved -1921 kilotonnes over the same period so the net national result was a -1.1% reduction in those eleven years. Emissions intensity (emissions related to GDP) fell by an average annual rate of -2.4%. Almost all those gains were from policy settings of the previous government.

VIRTUE POLICY
The Electricity Authority has decided on a new way to price the cost of transmission. This is very likely to sharply raise the cost of electricity to customers in the north of the North Island. The the regulated company, Transpower, is very opposed to the new method, not to mention customers facing the increases. The EA says the new pricing "encourage the right investment in renewable generation and transmission to respond to the electrification of transport and industrial processes", and "contribute to a low emissions economy at the least cost to consumers". But it will be very tough on low-income households north of Taupo.

GOOGLE FINDS A LITTLE MORE FOR NZ
Google New Zealand has filed its annual accounts for the year to December 2019, the first year in which it is applying a “new business model” – recognising more revenue generated from its New Zealand operations. This followed the NZ Government’s measures brought in during 2018 “to ensure multinational companies pay their fair share of tax”. Google NZ reported revenue of $36.2 million, up from $17.5 million the year before. Tax in the latest year was just under $2.5 million compared with under $400,000 the previous year. This left a tax paid profit for 2019 of $8.1 million compared with a loss of over $1 million previously. A Google NZ spokesperson said: “This is our first full year of operating under our new business model and we have worked constructively and collaboratively to ensure that we comply with New Zealand’s legislative requirements.”

NEW TRAINING FOR BNZ STAFF
BNZ's parent National Australia Bank has announced plans for a staff training programme, of education and accreditation, to be run in partnership with the Financial Services Institute of Australasia. A BNZ spokesman says the NZ bank will be rolling out the globally recognised formal qualification to all its staff in April 2021.

 

BORROWING PULLBACK
In Australia, mortgage lending to both investors and owner-occupiers has fallen sharply in March and April and economists say it is likely to fall further in coming months before it recovers.

CONSUMER PRICES SETTLE, FACTORY DEFLATION INTENSIFIES
China's consumer inflation eased to +2.4% in May, down from +3.3% in April as food price hikes, especially for pork, eased. Prices for lamb and beef also eased but only marginally. But Chinese factory deflation picked up sharply in May with prices falling -3.7% year-on-year and that is the fastest fall in more than four years.

AUSTRALIA UPDATE
In Australia, there have been 7270 cases (+3 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just under 92% (unchanged). 19 people are in hospital there (unchanged since yesterday) with 2 in ICU (-1). There are now 448 active cases in Australia (-11).

GLOBAL UPDATE
The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 7,237,100 and up +124,000 from this time yesterday. This is still rising at a faster pace than recently. American cases rose by +19,000 since yesterday to 1,979,100. US deaths now exceed 112,000. Global deaths now exceed 412,000.

EQUITY MARKET UPDATES
Equity markets in our time zone region are all hovering at an almost unchanged level after a -0.8% fall on Wall Street and much larger falls in Europe.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates may have fallen today. We don't have wholesale swap rates movement details yet but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant movement. The 90-day bank bill rate slipped -1 bp to 0.25%. The Aussie Govt 10yr has retreated further today by -3 bps to 1.03%. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp to 2.86%. And the NZ Govt 10yr yield has slipped by -5 bps to 0.94%. The UST 10yr is down -2 bps since this time yesterday at 0.83%.

NZ DOLLAR SLIGHTLY SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has held its overnight slip to be still at 65.2. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down to 57.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still down slightly to 69.7.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The price of Bitcoin is little-changed from this time yesterday, but up +0.8% at US$9,765 which is only very marginally firmer. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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24 Comments

This is very likely to sharply raise the cost of electricity to customers in the north of the North Island.

I think calling an estimated price increase of $80 per year - $6.66 per month - a "sharp increase" is a bit overstating it.

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It doesn’t really seem to matter how much this coalition of non business people borrow!
The Labour Party campaigned on getting the bodies out of the Pike River Mine didn’t they???
Andrew Little said that they wouLd get them out and that it was achievable on a budget of $26million and the suckers thought how great he was.
The Man has constantly said that it was a total waste of money and it was just going to be another one of Labour’s campaign policy failures, and none have been achieved!!!!
The amount spent is not $26m but has now blown out to $50million and Andrew Little has now said no more is going to be spent!!!!
The failure is that Andrew Little of the Labour Party has today stated that it is impractical now for them to be able to get any bodies out from the mine!
No kidding Andrew?
You have blatantly blown or wasted $50million Of taxpayers money on absolutely nothing, now stating that they are now looking for evidence!!
Andrew, the mine was full of gas that exploded and you have wasted $50million!!!!
This government has also decided to donate to Whale Watch at Kaikoura $1.5 million!
Whale Watch as far as I recall is owned by NGA Tahu who certainly had more than their fair share of the taxpayers money over the years and the Fat Cats continue to have their hands out!
How on earth anyone can say that this lot is anything but the most incompetent government of all time is hard to fathom!

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Looks like they spent around $12 billion in April to prevent the housing bubble from bursting...you should be very grateful.

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I couldn't agree with you comments more! The so called Pike River Re-entry is an unbelievable waste of money! Remember the 20-30m column of flame shooting from the vent! The vent was a long way from the mine face - everything in between would have been incinerated! Little and co should be flogged for this disgusting waste of taxpayers money! Peters said he would be the "first" person to enter the mine - another Winnie porky! Another reason he and his cronies need to be buried forever at this election!

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TM2 You're full of it.

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Wouldn’t it have been fair to acknowledge the help for low income households south of Taupo.

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I've got a long-prebooked annual trip to Taupo coming up in a few days. A little worried that most of the places I liked to go won't exist anymore. I don't think people understand what the ripple effect of this is going to be and how long it will keep rippling.

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When you have just lost most/all of your income. Any price rise can be considered a "sharp increase".

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And when you haven't, it wouldn't be. And most people haven't.

Also this doesn't take effect until 2023.

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The numbers on the deficit are truly scary.
They imply that the deficit was already -$15 billion before the lock-down started at the end of March.

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What is even scarier are the government's assumptions around growth and tax revenue to redress it...

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And all the model projections everywhere look near exactly the same. Huge downturn followed by only a partial comeback extending way beyond the visible horizon.

This is NOT a "V". The most optimistic scenario is for a total disaster.Link

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NZD was around 60c on USD just a month ago. The stock market seemed miserable. now it is still over 65c on USD, with most of stocks regained a loss.

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Clearly a signal from the market for more QE to achieve inflation targets.

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Yes its been very clear from all central banks, the asset bubbles cannot be allowed to burst at all costs. Its back to mature utilities with low growth rates on PEs of 30 to 40 again.

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Man 2 totally agree with you about Govt. As to pike mine the chance to go into the mine was straight after the two men walked out.

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For $50m you could have opencast the mine, got the bodies and had a mine ready to go. Forget the Greens, they are too busy looking for tourism jobs on the West Coast for ex miners.

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Pike River: Andrew Little says it is 'just impractical' to expect all bodies to be recovered
Pike River: Andrew Little says it is 'just impractical' to expect all bodies to be recovered
https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12338776

Dishonest Little always knew it could not be done... callously gave false hope to mining families and blew millions of our money.

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Little is full of BS!!
He is saying that he has always said there has always been low probability of body recovery, which is just B!!!
Labour campaigned on getting the bodies out, rubbished National for not doing enough!
He justifies the $50m as being ok as it is normally $2 to $3million per homicide and there are 29 bodies so $58million would be on par??????
wtf, there was one event Andrew, and you should fall on your sword at the election and lose your seat, as it is an absolute disgrace that you think That wasting $50million is acceptable!
Who has been given this huge amount of money!

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Agreed. Thought the likening of costings to 29 homicides was ridiculous - it's the exact same investigation?

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Wow! The rocket scientists at the Electricity Authority strike again! They are really struggling to justify their jobs. This quango should have been binned in the 1st month of the last National government. It was only set up to administer Clarks oil fired power station - built in the middle of know-where and never used, ever! It needs to be gone tomorrow!

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The EA says the new pricing "encourage the right investment in renewable generation and transmission to respond to the electrification of transport and industrial processes", and "contribute to a low emissions economy at the least cost to consumers".

I'm not surprised Transpower is not happy - any shift away from lines transmission will hurt them as well. And $80/yr might not seem like a lot to some, but northland already has high rates of poverty. Combine that with current job losses and this is very poor timing by EA..

And it's all very well suggesting that this will encourage renewable generation, but where are the incentives beyond brewing your own bio-fuel for the ordinary person? Seems counterproductive to enable higher costs for electricity in a poorer region as we go into winter, when the cheapest form of heating is burning things.. Combine this with NZ stats release that domestic GHG's are high (mainly transport) and one wonders where EA's head is at.. and has anyone mentioned Tiwai yet? With their own transmission lines and demand for low electricity prices, it looks more like subsidisation by the poor for Rio Tinto's greed. Hard pill to swallow that...

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I have dealt with the EA both Personally and professionally. Labelling them incompetent would be a compliment.

Regional NZ (i.e. anyone not on the main Hydro to Wgtn to Akld line) are about to get pummelled.

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There's enough solar in Northland, and low-tech works there as well as anywhere.

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