A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; looking at population trends, home ownership levels low, farm confidence not so low, swaps stable, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Only the Police Credit Union trimmed TD rates today.

POPULATION SCENARIOS
New Zealand’s population could hit 6 million by 2050, or it could reach this milestone sooner depending on migration and birth rates, Stats NZ said today. However lower projected birth rates and an ageing population mean the population may not reach 6 million for about 20–30 years. It will get there in 2043 if our historic cyclic migration patterns return - or a decade earlier if we maintained high migration levels. With zero migration we may never reach 6 million.

70 YEAR LOW
Another Stats NZ report shows that home ownership levels continue declining, especially for younger people. Summary here.

JOHN KEY II
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says 'sustained moderation' remains the Government's goal when it comes to house prices, as people 'expect' the value of their most valuable asset to keep rising.

THE NEGATIVES FADE
Rabobank released its quarterly farm confidence survey for December today. Confidence is now at its highest level since late 2019, however, it remains at net negative levels overall. Dairy, sheep and beef farmers are now more optimistic about the prospects for the broader agricultural economy while horticulturalists are more pessimistic. Farmers with a positive outlook cited demand and overseas markets as the key reasons for optimism, while government policy and COVID-19 remain the key concerns for those with a negative outlook. Farm business performance expectations were up overall, driven by a strong jump in dairy farmer optimism about the outlook for their own operations. Farmers’ investment intentions were up across the board with horticulturalists continuing to hold the strongest investment plans.

AUSSIE CONFIDENCE ENDS YEAR ON A HIGH
In Australia, both businesses and consumers are increasingly confident about their prospects. Business conditions and confidence rose in November, continuing to suggest a rapid rebound in the economy as restrictions are eased and state borders open up. Consumers surveyed show that their current confidence is now higher than a year ago.

WIDER PUNISHMENT OF AUSSIE BEEF EXPORTERS
China has widened its ban on beef imports from Australia to a sixth supplier. And this time they have chosen one of Australia's largest beef exporters to China. In addition, we came across this notice on the Chinese Customs website pertaining to food imports from New Zealand. Can any reader explain its relevance?

STEELSANDS CREDIT UNION COMPLETES TAKEOVER OF NEW ZEALAND EMPLOYEES CREDIT UNION
A transfer of engagements of the New Zealand Employees Credit Union (NZECU) to Steelsands Credit Union, under the Friendly Societies and Credit Unions Act, has been completed. This is effectively a takeover of NZECU, which will cease to exist, by Steelsands. NZECU was in breach of its capital and related party ratios and thus subject to an Event of Review and Event of Default called by its supervisor, Covenant Trustee Services Ltd.

GOLD PRICE FIRM
In Asian trade, the price of gold has risen +US$2 from the ending New York price and is now at US$1864/oz. The New York price ended at US$1862/oz and was +US$2 higher than the afternoon London fix.

EQUITIES UPDATE
Wall Street ended its session today lower by a minor -0.2%. The ASX200 is trading up +0.3% in mid-day trade while the NZX50 Capital Index is up +0.6% near the end of today's session. Meanwhile, the very large Tokyo market has opened down -0.3% in early trade. Hong Kong has opened down -0.4% while Shanghai has opened up +0.3% in early trade today.

SWAP & BOND RATES IN MINOR SLIP
We don't have todays swap rate movements yet. If there are material changes today when the end-of-day swap rates are available, we will update them here. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp today at 0.27%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -4 bps at 1.02%. The China Govt ten year bond is down -1 bp at 3.31%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -3 bps at 0.94% and matching the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.94% (unchanged). And the US Govt ten year is down -4 bps today to 0.93%.

NZD HOLDS
Against the US Dollar, the Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at 70.4 USc. On the cross rates it is up marginally against the Aussie to 94.9 AUc and against the euro we are unchanged at 58.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 has hardly moved from this time yesterday at 72.5.

BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin is now at US$19,222 and lower by a minor -0.6% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».