Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None to report today here either.
SPOTTY
Retail activity rose +3.3% in November above the same month a year ago for the core retail activities of consumables (+5.3%), durables (+8.5%), hospitality (-8.3%) and apparel (+4.3%). But outside those, things were quite negative. Spending on fuel was down -16.6% and for services down -2.4%. Non-retail card activity was down -8.2% on the same basis. That means that total electronic card activity was down -0.8% in November compared with November 2019. Westpac looked at these numbers and has a more upbeat view.
UPBEAT ON JOB ADS
The BNZ-Seek Employment Report on job ad levels was also upbeat. "With its 6.9% advance in November, job advertising indicated a genuine recovery is in train. This is after gains in September and October that likely had elements of rebound from a compromised August, when COVID-19 restrictions were tightened. The sense of underlying recovery was also evident in the fact November’s ads were down just -5.1% on year-ago levels. This continues a claw back that has been underway ever since April’s ads were down -73.7% on an annual basis."
"SLIPPING"
The weak spending on fuels in the retail spending report is confirmed by the ANZ Truckometer report. "Light traffic" (read cars) activity was lower in November than expected. The lack of tourists is becoming evident in car traffic, while the Heavy Traffic Index (trucks and freight) ANZ says, suggests "a stonking Q3 GDP outturn", also raises the real possibility that Q4 is tracking for negative growth.
MARKET MANIPULATION
The FMA has issued a formal warning to an unnamed individual trader. The alleged misconduct occurred in April 2020, with the individual trading on their own behalf via an online trading account. It involved the individual buying a small parcel of shares at a price materially higher than the last traded price, while attempting to sell a larger parcel of the same shares at the higher price. Trading of this nature is likely to trigger surveillance alerts, which it did in this case.
REGULATION OF FEES COMING
The Government is proposing to regulate interchange fees, typically the largest component of merchant service fees charged by banks to business customers, through "hard caps" priced for a range of different types of merchants. Additionally the Government is also mulling a range of other options to force down merchant service fees.
BACK TO NORMAL
The NZ smartphone market is coming back strongly, up +35% in the September quarter to sell 384,000 units. That spurt means the year-on-year sales level is almost the same as for Q3-2019, according to the latest IDC Asia/Pacific Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.
HIGHER YIELDS HOLD
Treasury tendered $600 mln in three tranches today and that attracted $2.35 bln in bids leaving $1.75 bln unsatisfied. The April 20023 tranche for $250 mln attracted $892 mln in bids and the average yield was 0.22% pa, unchanged from the prior issue. The April 2029 tranche was also for $250 mln, and that was even more popular, attracting $1.052 bln in bids. The average yield was 0.73% pa and also unchanged. The final $100 mln for the April 2033 tranche attracted $405 mln in bids and was sold with an average yield of 1.07% pa and this was marginally higher than last time.
SINKING TO NEGATIVE YIELDS
The latest Australian Government bond tender of AU$150 mln went off with a yield of -0.79% for their September 2030 linker issue. Just five bidders won at that average rate of the 38 who bid a total of AU$836 mln. And the latest AOFM AU$1.5 bln Note tender, attracted a massive AU$8.2 bln in bids and the average yield for the 19 winning bids was 0.0099% for their March 2021 Note, with at least one "winner" offering a negative yield of -0.01%, the first time this has happened for an AOFM Notes issue.
LOADING UP $50 BLN MORE
In Australia, a Parliamentay Budget Office report sheds some light of the future of their Federal finances. For 2020-21 they will run an underlying cash deficit of -AU$214 bln. And at -11% of GDP this is around 2½ times greater than the previous worst deficit of the last fifty years. Total net debt will rise to 44% of GDP in 2023-24 they say, and the negatives will echo for decades to come with lower tax revenues and higher expense and support obligations.
GOLD PRICE WEAKER
In Asian trade, the price of gold has slipped -US$1 from the ending New York price and is now at US$1838/oz. But that is -US$32 below the price at this time yesterday. The New York price ended at US$1839/oz and was -US$3 lower than the afternoon London fix.
EQUITIES UPDATE
Wall Street ended its session today down by -0.8% with most of the fall in the morning session. The ASX200 is trading down -0.6% in mid-day trade while the NZX50 Capital Index is flat near the end of today's session. Meanwhile, the very large Tokyo market has opened today down -0.3% in early trade. Hong Kong has opened down -0.6%, while Shanghai has opened down -0.2% in early trade today.
SWAP & BOND RATES STABLE
We don't have todays swap rate movements yet. If there are material changes when the end-of-day swap rates are available, we will update them here. The 90 day bank bill rate is -1 bp lower today at 0.26%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down -2 bps at 1.01%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 3.30%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is holding at 0.93% and marginally above the earlier RBNZ-recorded fix of 0.91% (-3 bps). And above the US Govt ten year is down marginally today to 0.93%.
NZD SOFT
Against the US Dollar, the Kiwi dollar is a -¼c softer that this time yesterday at 70.2 USc. On the cross rates we are down -¾c against the Aussie to 94.3 AUc and against the euro we are little-changed at 58.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 has slipped lower to 72.3.
BITCOIN RECOVERS
Bitcoin is now at US$18,468 and recovering +1.1% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
30 Comments
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123639148/nido-investors-face-big-loss…
The financier, Pearlfisher, is collecting 16% p.a. on their outstanding debt, while Mum and Dad investors, hoping for a trouble free 8.5%, are being asked to shell out more money to pay the interest and then more again to clear the debt, which effectively means doubling their investment. The only winners in this exercise appear to be Pearlfisher, and the liquidators. Looks like another example of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, albeit a little wiser
The latest Australian Government bond tender of AU$150 mln went off with a yield of -0.79% for their September 2030 linker issue. Just five bidders won at that average rate of the 38 who bid a total of AU$836 mln. And the latest AOFM AU$1.5 bln Note tender, attracted a massive AU$8.2 bln in bids and the average yield for the 19 winning bids was 0.0099% for their March 2021 Note, with at least one "winner" offering a negative yield of -0.01%, the first time this has happened for an AOFM Notes issue.
Give me the stuff, I’ll pay whatever!
Link
some interesting data with the Credit card spend
Hospitality was down 8.9% (6.6M)
Accomodation was down 38% ($90M)
Travel and tours down 86% (130M)
Despite kiwis spending money locally- it is proving there is a definitive gap in spend without international tourists. Typically Nov is the start of the international tourism season (particularly cruise ships - which use tours and also hospitality). Given the sluggish results its not a good omen for Dec, Jan, Feb, March and April for the industries that have relied on tourism. Here is hoping the vaccines work and by Mid 2021 borders can start re-opening
The borders won't reopen until either the majority of the population here is judged to be immune (at least a month after vaccination completed), or a similar condition is met for those likely to come here. We don't yet have enough covid vaccine ordered to get 80% immunity here. I would give it until March 2022 before we get there.
The poor sods who invested have been told a pack of lies by Mr Tuffin and Mr Kumar. They have every right to be annoyed, and to possibly ask for the commissions paid to Mr Tuffin out of their money to be returned to them. Did Mr Kumar actually put any of his own money into the project? It would appear not. With hindsight it is easy to blame cashed up retirees for trying to find some sort of yield for their life savings, but if they are unable to see the truth, carefully hidden from them, that may be the fault of the people presenting the story.
Poor Sods? No greed got in the way of common research..anyone with a bit of time on their hands could easily check Mr Tuffin and Mr Kumar out. And really does NZ not have enough big box warehouse shops? Better to have brought some Mainfreight shares and read a book.
"Chinese professor boasts about Beijing’s influence in ‘America’s core inner circle’, hails Biden victory"
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/us-politics/chinese-profess…
Get a life guys. Trump is pure as the driven snow? Biden craps diamonds? This is US politics, the most mysoginistic, racist, perverted and basically dishonest "democracy" we have seen since the Weimar republic's ultimate collapse into anarchy and (in short order) totalitarianism.
China and Russia are no better, but its too easy to turn to blaming the bogeyman in times like these.
Stop trying to pick a winner from a bunch of losers, and start focusing on how we can get out of this mess without destroying the planet and good old fashioned decency.
I like your post Rhumline. Hunter Biden has very little influence to any govt past or present and anything he has done would pale in comparison to the chump and his family and their subversion of democracy. Unlike chumps whole family which were given absolute control of many facets of govt. Compared with chump, Biden at least has a modicum of honesty and integrity. I don't think he will be very effective however if the hateful, pathological lying, bigoted, hypocritical republicans retain control of the senate after the Georgia runoff races.
Just pat yourself on the back that you don't have to live in the states right now. I live part time in the USA and it is the closest thing I have seen to civil war since, well, the civil war. The misinformation and lies spewing out from the Rupert Murdoch right wing fascist propaganda machine all over the world actually makes him way more influential than the chump and there are vast amounts of people who lack the education and ability to be able to decipher the bullshit from the truth. Total sheep. You have a sitting president who actually believes potentially 500,000 deaths from covid is a 'terrific' outcome (chumps words) towards herd immunity.....'terrific'.......and to anyone who thinks this is out of the ordinary rhetoric have not been following reputable news outlets for the last 4 years.
In the past I have supported both republicans and democrat's so this is not about that. I have NEVER seen such a perversion of the truth than that which we are currently witnessing from chump and his republican GOP and mentally retarded followers and the murdoch slimers. That's how fox works. They just keep perverting the truth until the sheep think its true by basis of repetition. Under this scenario the USA is ripe for the second civil war and the destabilizing effect this will have on the rest of the worlds security as China, Russia and Iran etc, laugh at the USAs incompetent lack of leadership and take advantage of the security situation as the USA becomes embroiled in their self made inner turmoil and isolationism....
Sweden is so boring. Do you really want me to post about their pandemic - that hasn't bothered to show up in their death stats? There is nothing there for lockdown sadists so it has dropped off the radar.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/
or their excess mortality stats.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
Really, partial year data? You wouldn't be trying to obscure something would you? How about
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102193/coronavirus-cases-developme…
from your own source.
And in a month you'll see it in excess mortality too.
2020 is still partial and there is not much I can do about that. Get back to me in a month if there is something not boring? Be sure to adjust for population. You were cool with the https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality data?
Continuing on my morning's post about NZ's worsening record on school-level maths & science, it appears that Australia has significantly improved overall .
Our neighbours stand among the top-10 nations in overall achievement and across three out of 4 sub-categories.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/nsw-lifts-australian-high-school-stude…
Advisor
I take international reports on success of our education system with a grain of salt.
The nature of our education is unsurprisingly quite different to many other countries. For example Japan - which is widely recognised as having a focus on rote learning - is no doubt ranked highly in such reports; however given that there is “knowledge decay” the long term worth of rote learning must be questionable.
I look at our broad education system developing a wide range of skills which enables our graduates to punch above their weight internationally - most Kiwis on their OE are well sort out.
I think both our culture and education system has much to do with our success and break through technology associated with the America’s Cup. I find it amusing in the last regatta that our computer programmers out-did Oracle despite Larry Ellison and his resources and their capabilities.
Wary of the positivity around job listings up. I've noticed with some job listings that there's multiple recruitment agents placing ads for the same job. Often jobs listed don't actually exist either, they're just scoping out candidates to then approach potential clients.
TVNZ - Ardern Government begins push for 4 year terms
More important than that NZ does not yet have
(a) a constitution
(b) a High Court that can rule on legislation
(c) an upper house of review
All of which should come before 4 year terms
#NZconstitution #climate-emergency #FixHousing
One year less than 9, which is close to the average. We'll either have 1 term governments or 2 terms, with the rare 3, rather than the usual 3 term governments with the rare 2. It will average out ok. Especially since 4 years is enough time to not be able to blame the previous government for your failures, as multiple governments have done.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.