Grant Robertson delivers a 'peak Labour Party' Budget, committing to spending more than expected, including on benefit increases

The Fudgeflation Budget
The Mother of ALL Subsidies?

All the 'benefit increases' are just fudgeflation. The BILLIONS in infrastructure spending is just a subsidy to City Councils and DHB's. Money that should have been raised through rates over the past 30+ years.. rates which still aren't meaningfully increasing.

The reality is, there is NO REASON to believe these earmarked funds will actually manifest into roads, buildings, pipes and infrastructure in general. Execution Lacking!

On first gaze, this Fudgeflation Budget does little to increase manufacturing, business expansion or the general expansion of NZ's wealth as a nation. So many opportunities missed in Information Technology it should be criminal~!! Just my first thoughts.

Botching Back Bigger

So, Labour's big plan for the pandemic recovery is to up the dole. Genius

Yep. Adding more people for no rhyme or reason except for diversity (explicit) and economic growth (explicit / implicit).

At 2% (90 thou) immigration we are way out in front in terms of welcoming people into this country compared to the rest of the world. Winning?

Did they not just say 2days ago that they would like less people arriving here I guess that was a lie.

Does any body actually do a cost benefit analysis for these people that we are adding.
Each Family will require a new house to be built somewhere in the country because already we have people living on the streets, cars and motels. Can't escape that one. $1 Million if in Auckland.
Then we need to provide all the extra infrastructure, services etc - at least another $ million or two.
If we are making this sort investment to bring these people in to the country, what rate of return would we want. I would not settle for anything less that 10%, as it seems such a risky stupid proposition. So are they going to generate a $200,000 to $300,000 per year profit for each family over and above their wages and the cost of government services that they are provided? Practically all the immigrants that we would let in under the 40,000 plus soles that they are talking about would not have a hope of getting any where near that. Most of the low skilled shop keepers, hospitality staff etc, etc that have historically come here would barely make any net profit for the country let alone those figures.
We are governed by total idiots.

Making our per capita emissions targets even lower and housing g demand higher. In 10 years there's going to be a lot of unemployed builders

Where does this "high population growth " assumption come from ? According to recently released population and immigration statistics, as posted to this site, of over 5,000 student and work visa holders leaving NZ. a month, our borders being essentially closed to. grants (except entertainers), and our net birth rate per woman of around 1.6 it is a mystery. To which can be added the resumption of the familiar flood of Kiwis to the greener fields across the ditch. Having had some experience with econometric and other "models" and simulations, I am very aware of the importance of GIGO.

I think you are right, let's return all those fine upstanding citizens from whence they came.

That's the Never-never land promise: house prices keep on increasing at a slower rate but they also become more affordable.

Sharp drop in house price growth! Hah! What we need is a sharp drop in house prices not just house price growth or provide 100% top up of our wages for the next 10 years to make housing affordable until our pay catches up. I have had enough of labour. Not again. What an utter let down on housing and immigration. We are bursting at the seams. Where are the additional hospital beds, classrooms in schools, roading, housing etc for the continued increase in immigration? Auckland doesn’t even have water for the existing population. 1000 houses for Maori and how many are you letting into the country? 100,000?

Saw stuff refer to it as a crash in house price growth. A crash

The same sort of adjustment occurred in 2016-19 but folk are not keen on examining that.
24% growth in Auckland for 2 years, followed by 3.5 years with total growth of about -3%.
Chinese credit impulse of 2013-15 started last mania and its reduction caused the drop in 2017.
Guess what China did in early 2020? Yep, huge increase in printing.

I'm sure you can buy a lot more essentials for $250 NZD in China than you can for $315 NZD here.

The thing is that all the increases are locked in in perpetuity, they will still be locked in long after Robbo has burned through his $65 Billion slush-fund.

the scarier prospect here - was according to stuff - the average "non working family" has received an extra $`175 per week (or $9100 per annum) since labour came to power. Meanwhile the minimum wage has risen by $170 a week since labour came to power.

So not been employed reaps the same benefits as been employed on minimum wage. No wonder there are a large number of hospitality and agricultural jobs not filled in NZ.

There will a sharp drop in house prices*

*note: in the annual growth in house prices.

He's in charge of the fiscal situation, not monetary. Ask Orr

Or increased savings for highest deposits, or an influx of cash-rich immigrants.

There remains unchecked the huge gulf, the disparity in wages. When I started work in the early 60s, the boss earned half as much again as the middle executive which anyone could reach with due application. Since rogernomics those upper tier pay rates have simply been strapped to a rocket, out of reach. NZ is paying high end execs at the top of the ladder far too much and those on the bottom rungs too little. Yet those low end jobs, manual, unsexy are neverthe less essential. Therefore hikes to the minimum wage are essential too and there should be a meaningful margin available provided there too, to attract and motivate those that skimp life by sitting it out on a benefit. Personally, admittedly simplistically, would much sooner have the government paying their workers in that category more, than the same for benefits.

Except property owners, they'll be good.

China will never get to 'rich' status.

and of junk food too - this is a KFC's budget

The problem is that deciding who to blame doesn't solve the problem. You can blame parents until the cows come home, but the kids still need help.

Landlords will look at how much benefits will go up and adjust their rents accordingly.
This is what happened last time benefits went up.

There is also no certainty the increase will be spent on the children.

That’s pretty daft - compare number of job vacancies (about 25,000) to number of people looking for work (130,000) + the number of people who want more work (230,000) + the people who have given up trying but might come back if the right job came up locally (100,000s).

A country without enough jobs cannot really leave it’s unemployed people to live in destitution.

You need to spend sometime talking to disadvantaged families, your statement around parental blame is wide of the mark in most cases.

Well that is a fact free reckon that just reveals your bigotry..

Yep, no doubt the land-leeches will be salivating at the prospect of lining their pockets with more taxpayer dollars.

The Bludgit.

Sure next we should say those over the age of 65 are all bludging because they have much more mobility and access to work than the much smaller set of people so physically impaired they need help bathing and food prep assistance.

Nice one Richard prebble

Hey, Te Huia runs twice a day for a cool $100m, on that basis we might be able to run a train from Hamilton to Auckland (very very slowly I might add) 16 time a day, almost one every hour...

I am sure they will

Maybe they should buy some electric ones instead, seeing how we have all those kilometers of electrification sitting idle.

It's just wall to wall "good news" transmitted by our media. Remember when our national debt was 'very bad' under the Key government? Now we borrow $100 million a day and it's wonderful as our debt is significantly lower than that of the US and Japan. Never mind that we are a nation of only 5 million people. The media have already got over 50% of Kiwi's slavishly devoted to Labour, but can they get that percentage even higher?!? They will try!

Best to start thinking about your NZD and other assets and how you can move someout before everyone else starts to wake up.

Also the Social Unemployment Insurance (maybe call it UBI) is a sneaky way of back stopping everything but how much will that cost taxpayers.

Wonder if Airnz will increase the one way ticket from NZ to OZ...expect they will after this nothing budget. Only the 200m to pharmac was the positive. They screwed House prices and rents so much, which continue to increase, that the increase in welfare will be gone by end of September.

Does taking money from parents who are not able to look after their children, help the children ?

Has it helped to date?

National is flat on the canvas & Collins unelectable - Muldoon in drag, what a disaster for democracy when you have no opposition. The lefty media (and Winston Peters in 2017) have certainly played a major part in killing off any opposition.

People are caught up in the hype, the reversal is inevitable, its just a matter of Time. We can sustain average prices being 10+ time household income.

Also very similar to the UK Post gfc, I think after this government we are in for a few years of austerity, we'll Get inflation for sure. Just not with our incomes.

I think you'll find the woke crowd, the virtue signallers, and the champagne socialists etc all are loving their house price growth. Cloak yourself in moral superiority & live it up in a 'capitalist' society: everyone's doing it you know. It's epitomised by JA, cashing in via her swish digs in Point Chevalier.

What are you basing your comment on? I can't see any reference to the 'sickness benefit' paying 80% of someone's previous income.

That's nothing, the RBNZ has decided to print $100b and give it to property owners over the past year (although I think it's only up to around $70b).

If we have 100k kids in poverty in this country, that's $1m per kid. Could have solved poverty overnight if they really wanted to. But instead, the powers that be decided to give themselves a massive payout in tax free equity (because they almost all own houses).

If Labour don't keep 'delivering for maori' (euphemism for 'keep that cash coming') then history shows that maori will ditch them for the Maori Party or NZ First in the electorate seats.

No, money definitely makes no difference to poverty at all.

And your comment is abhorrent.

On a wholesale basis, Maori were locked out of the land/money tree when nz was colonised. And acknowledgement of This (along with a response) hasn't really existed until relatively recently in the journey of nz as a modern state.

It could take dozens, maybe hundreds of years for that disadvantage to balance out.

Yes self responsibility is important at a family level, but historical disadvantage exists and wealth is usually transfered down family lines.

Still its a money scramble.

What rubbish. Studies show more money for families does fix issues around poverty, violence and poor health.

I think that since our entire economy is apparently based on the 'wealth effect' of big house price increases, maybe they want the Reserve Bank to do something productive and slash interest rates again, and print some more money while they are at it, and for the government to do something productive and repeal the foreign buyer ban and the interest deductability changes.

National (nor Labour) wouldn't know what productivity even is, let alone how to achieve it. Their last version was to absolutely smash productivity by bringing in cheap labour and destroying our milk quality reputation by encouraging us to be a volume producer instead of quality producer. John Key literally admitted that was their plan in a speech he gave to Westpac.

If that's their definitely of productivity increases, we are all stuffed. The Labour version isn't any better, they think productivity increases means raising the minimum wage and giving more money to people on benefits (which will equate exactly to a rise in rents, so a subsidy to landlords).

Neither of them have a clue.

Who said all beneficiaries are bad? Life can be tough for all of us, irrespective of whether we get hand-outs from the state or hand-outs via central bank policies or wages / salaries via a paying job.

‘The Landlords Budget’

You need to read some history.
You've shown in the past with comments about moriori that you are pretty ignorant when it comes to our history.
Every immigrant that wants permanent residency should be required to take attend a course in Aotearoa's history, and what it has meant for our indigenous people (in many negative ways).

I'd like more help for anyone at the bottom. I will ask my Pasifika colleagues tomo if they feel marginalized with the Maori focus.

Jacinda said that the budget will deliver 200,000 jobs over four years. (Could be like the 100,000 houses over 10 years).

It's tiring.
All style, no substance.

You guys just can't admit you're wrong can you

most of it will end up in rent, and both ACT and national were pushing that today, but when they were in power they did nothing to slow down the house price increases and building of houses to fix the problem, instead they kicked the can down the road.
the simple solution is a MASSIVE state house building programme.
ionically all week the have been showing a doco of the mother of all budgets on parliament tv and that is where it started, the bringing in of market rents for state housing and the creation of accommodation supplement and tax laws to favour private rentals

i would have rather they changed the tax system than hand out more money, make the first 5 or 10k tax free, it seems illogical to me to give people more in benefits (hand out) then take it away again in tax and does not advantage those working on low incomes in any way

linklater01 - it WON'T be recirculated in the economy, it will be gobbled up by rent rises. This in turn goes to support higher house prices and the 4 aussie banks.

Until the government fixes the underlying issues, no amount of benefit raises will make beneficiaries better off. Don't believe me? Check out what moteliers are charging the government per week for single rooms and try and tell me landlords who know their tenants are beneficiaries won't be upping rents after the recent government actions.

I own property like many here. My tenants are lifetime beneficiaries, with dependents at home on benefits, many on disability benefits. Their rent has been approx $100/ wk below market. Not anymore. Not with the new policy. Not with the benefit increases.

Unfortunately their extra benefits going on higher rent won't be circulated into the economy. It'll go straight to council rates which has skyrocketed. A miracle house insurance hasn't skyrocketed yet either.

I own property like many here. My tenants are lifetime beneficiaries, with dependents at home on benefits, many on disability benefits. They are all good people who through a combination of some really bad luck, really bad genes, some stupid choices, poor education find themselves as they are. They have stable housing they can keep pets and stay longterm, 7yrs+ some of them. The weed smokers are the most chilled out and just watch TV all day. I don't rat on them and they don't cause too much damage or aggravation to neighbours. Rent has been approx on average $100/ wk below market. Not anymore. Not with the new policy. Not with the benefit increases.

Unfortunately their extra benefits going into higher rent won't be circulated into the economy. It'll go straight to council rates which have skyrocketed. A miracle house insurance hasn't skyrocketed yet either.

The self interest of Nurses teachers, social workers, police, Health care providers, DOC staff - in fact all public servants who got 0 ZIP NOTHING SFA - oh wait - a free covid vaccine !!! and a lifetime of government debt to pay off!

The consequences of this Social policy will be a wave of our key frontline staff leaving for Aussie -- and massive shortages of the key staff we need to actually do somethign about the social issues !

Actually, I think you will find for years governments of all colours have only cared about property and asset owners. That's not the same as businesses, if they really cared for businesses, they would have concentrated on productivity enhancements.

I agree, they also haven't cared for the social costs. But you must realise that without changing the system that allows the property owning class to become wealthy without doing anything, their policies just announced (to increase benefits etc) will again flow up to the property owning class via increased rents. The social harms won't be solved by their actions yet again, until they change the fundamentals of the tax system and housing system, any money redirected to the people who are disaffected by those systems will flow directly to those to whom it benefits. You can see this from the last 4 years of Labour trying to fiddle around the edges and now they find themselves in a deeper hole, now paying billions in accommodation supplements and more WFF costs which are all flowing up to the land owning class.

These changes won't fix it either. Rents have gone up 6% in a year, next year they will probably be up 10% because of the changes enacted by Labour recently. The increases in benefits will barely cover the increases in rents, so those mounting social costs will continue to mount.

What most of us are saying Cliopedant is that until the system fundamentally changes, the government will continue to throw money at the problem. And that money comes from the productive parts of the economy via taxation - parts of the economy which are also disaffected by idiotic government policy. The tax system needs huuuuge reform to discourage investment in speculative assets and into productive investment, but no party wants to tackle it. There needs to be a step change in our accounting towards sustainability at the same time as huge investment in innovation to change our emissions and consumption of harmful substances (plastics for instance), but no party wants to tackle it. There needs to be huge re-investment into people's education and access to it, something like a national post high school conscription service into areas of education/trades/armed services/environmental/charity work to promote productivity (Germany does this). Labour is fiddling around the edges of this. There needs to be investigation and actionable changes to the cost of new housing in this country, but no party wants to do anything. The Maori economy needs further support and enhancing whilst at the same time encouraging them to maintain links to and look after the members of their iwi or hapū. Labour are actually doing OK with this last one. Mostly though Labour claim it's being bold, while doing nothing to fix any of the things which require bold action.

All these things flow through to having a better, more productive, relatively cheaper environment for people to live in with the added benefit of a more productive business sector and therefore increased tax pool. They ALSO mean that people on benefits will be relatively better off as their costs would be lower, particularly that of housing AND they could get extra money from the increased tax revenue. At the moment the Labour party and National before it are not addressing the underlying problems, instead acting as an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, trying to deal with the consequences, while often making them worse.

So don't blame us for calling out governments for not doing what is good for the country long term, it is the reckless action of feckless and spineless leaders that has led us here. Had they nipped many of these problems in the bud earlier, we wouldn't have to dramatically increase benefits, nor go back to unionised labour forces, nor do half the things they are obsessed with.

You have just proved my initial point.

The government have pushed house prices so high that most people have lost all motivation to work. The harder they work, the further away house prices go. The government have stolen a whole generation of hopes and dreams. They have no future.

Rule #1. You can always fill a job if you pay enough money. What you mean is you cannot find staff because you don't pay enough. The minimum wage is still a joke and by the time you factor in the high transport costs etc you can see why people sit on the Dole. Increasing the unemployment benefit will further reduce the pool of people that pick fruit etc. I have done fruit picking its bloody hard work but back in the day it paid very well on contract if you were fast and was brilliant school holiday work and done 100% by Kiwi's but its all changed now that a cheap labour force can be exploited. You reap what you sow, quite literally in this case.

.Dp 404 Cloud error

Don't get me started on so-called "free trade agreements" which are anything but

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.