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Grant Robertson delivers a 'peak Labour Party' Budget, committing to spending more than expected, including on benefit increases

Grant Robertson delivers a 'peak Labour Party' Budget, committing to spending more than expected, including on benefit increases
Grant Robertson. Image from Labour's Facebook page.

Budget 2021 is seeing Finance Minister Grant Robertson move to the left of the centre ground he had been hugging.

Having tempered Labour Party supporters’ expectations around being “transformational” with talk of “balance” and “prudence”, Robertson has committed to spending a decent amount more than planned in December.

Benefits will go up and Robertson has confirmed a Social Unemployment Insurance scheme will be set up to ensure people who lose their jobs temporarily receive more support than they would going into the regular welfare system.

Robertson claims to be "undoing some of the damage done" in Ruth Richardson's 'Mother of All Budgets', delivered 30 years ago. 

Health remains a focus.

However, businesses haven’t received much support, with the National Party criticising the “Securing Our Recovery” Budget for not focussing enough on productivity and economic growth. 

Forecast debt issuance revised down less than expected

Robertson allocated $3.8 billion towards new operational expenditure (day-to-day expenditure on things like public sector wages and welfare) in Budget 2021 - a significant increase from the $2.6b pencilled in, in the Budget Policy Statement released in February.

He allocated $2.7b to new operational expenditure in Budgets 2022, 2023 and 2024 - amounts on par with February plans.

As for capital expenditure (IE on rail, school buildings and infrastructure), $8.1b has been allocated over four years - an increase from the $7.8b stated in February.

Robertson also dug into the $62b COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund created last year. He allocated $3.8b towards the already-announce Housing Acceleration Fund, among other initiatives, leaving $5.1b in the fund.

Because the New Zealand economy is pulling through the COVID-19 pandemic better than expected, The Treasury forecasts it will issue less debt than projected when it released its Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) in December.

However, The Treasury doesn’t forecast cutbacks as large as expected by bond traders.

Treasury forecasts issuing $30b of New Zealand Government Bonds (NZGB) in the year to June 2022 - the same as forecast in December. But then it only plans to cut back issuance by $5b in 2023 and 2024 to $25b each year. NZGB issuance is forecast to remain at $25b in 2024.

To put these numbers in context, Treasury in 2019 forecast issuing $8b of NZGB in 2022. 

Deficit expected to narrow to $2.3b by 2024

But because the Government’s tax take is above, and expenditure below forecast, net core Crown debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to fall from levels projected at the HYEFU in December.

Net core Crown debt is expected to climb to 34% of GDP in 2021 and peak at 48% in 2023.

The Reserve Bank’s Funding for Lending Programme has had a material effect on this figure. Removing the programme (effectively aimed at reducing interest rates), sees net core Crown debt peak at 41% of GDP in 2024.

Robertson said it wouldn’t make sense for him to create debt targets in this uncertain environment, as he did pre-COVID-19.

Bringing this all together, New Zealand’s Budget deficit is forecast to sit at $15.1b in 2021, rise to $18.4b in 2022, and then start falling to $2.3b in 2024.

So, the country’s books will remain in the red across the forecast period - as expected. Click on the magnifying glass to zoom in on the chart.

House price growth to plummet

The Treasury expects the Government’s recent housing policy tax changes (extension of the bright-line test and removal of interest deductibility) to contribute to annual house price growth falling from 17.3% in the June 2021 quarter to 0.9% by June 2022.

“As borders reopen, higher population growth and continued low interest rates are expected to result in a gradual increase in house prices inflation, reaching 2.5% in the June 2025 quarter,” The Treasury said.

It said slower house price growth will dampen the economic recovery, “prolonging the period of monetary policy support needed to raise inflation and employment to target”.

Key initiatives in the Budget

  • Welfare increases

All main benefits will increase by $20 per adult, per week, as of July 1, 2021.

As of April 1, 2022, main benefits will be raised again to meet levels recommended by the Welfare Expert Advisory Group in 2019.

People with children will get an additional top-up of $15 per adult, per week.

The Student Allowance and Student Loan for living costs will increase by $25 per person, per week.

Income thresholds for Childcare Assistance will be adjusted every year in line with average wage growth. These thresholds were frozen in 2010. The change will mean people on slightly higher incomes will be able to qualify for assistance.

  • Social Unemployment Insurance

Robertson affirmed his commitment to creating an ACC-like scheme to support people who lose their jobs.

“We’re looking at a scheme that could provide those who lose their jobs with around 80% of their income, with minimum and maximum caps,” Robertson said.

The public will be consulted on the design of a scheme later this year. It isn’t expected to become operative for a few years.

  • Infrastructure

The large allocations include:

  • $810m for KiwiRail to buy new locomotives and wagons and complete upgrades to mechanical facilities, as well as invest in maintenance.
  • $761m of capital for education, including $634m for school property.
  • $700m for District Health Boards to invest in new assets.
  • $300m of additional capital for New Zealand Green Investment Finance to continue to invest in climate change mitigation.
  • Climate change

Robertson said he intended to start recycling revenue from the Emissions Trading Scheme for climate initiatives, rather than putting these funds back in the Government’s main kitty.

This is forecast to see up to an additional $3b of funding over five years ring-fenced for climate-related expenditure.   

  • Business 

The tourism sector will receive $200m from the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund. 

$44m has been allocated to a 'Small Business Digital Training, Advisory and Support Programme'. 

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

231 Comments

16
up

Basically exactly as everyone was expecting. Bumbling Back Better.

18
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The Fudgeflation Budget
The Mother of ALL Subsidies?

All the 'benefit increases' are just fudgeflation. The BILLIONS in infrastructure spending is just a subsidy to City Councils and DHB's. Money that should have been raised through rates over the past 30+ years.. rates which still aren't meaningfully increasing.

The reality is, there is NO REASON to believe these earmarked funds will actually manifest into roads, buildings, pipes and infrastructure in general. Execution Lacking!

On first gaze, this Fudgeflation Budget does little to increase manufacturing, business expansion or the general expansion of NZ's wealth as a nation. So many opportunities missed in Information Technology it should be criminal~!! Just my first thoughts.

National bungled the appointment of Derek Handly as a CTO for NZ in 2018. If the only major party who cares about business can't get a single thing right when it comes to IT, why should the other lot? There's isn't a single politician I can think of who understands the difference between good and bad practice in the sector. Hell, most government IT architects don't understand it.

National? Are you sure?....

On 24 August 2018, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern dismissed Curran from the Cabinet after it became clear Curran had met Handley in February at her Beehive office to discuss his interest in the vacant CTO role. Curran had failed to disclose the meeting in her ministerial diary and to inform staff or officials about it (the second meeting she had failed to disclose). Curran apologised to the Prime Minister for her actions and eventually resigned as a Minister.[35][36][37][38]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Handley

Ezy, you could always try a gig at Stuff.

Botching Back Bigger

31
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So, Labour's big plan for the pandemic recovery is to up the dole. Genius

They're building infrastructure! Human infrastructure... I wonder how long it will be until we hear that subtle redefinition?

Increasing their future voter base and trying to hd the Maori seats

10
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Nope, no investing, just increasing the dole. Investing would involve training, upskilling, creating jobs. This is just increasing dependence on the welfare state, classic Labour.

Yip, given how much poverty there is in this country, and how poor people typically spend every penny they get, and how Ruth Richardson's decimation of the dole in 1991 is believed to have been the main cause of the following recession, yes, it is genius.

In 1991 NZ median house price was 3x income, now it is nearly 8x.

We would not have needed to increase anything if land use and housing policy changes did not allow rentier house prices to increase as they have done.

The increase in benefits is a poor substitute for better land use and housing policy.

38
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"Higher population growth" and there's that magic phrase. Not much of an increase in infrastructure to catch-up with our current population, but the population growth is already being banked to dig us out of our current financial tight spot. The talk of migration reform are clearly just that: talk. The numbers don't lie: we have to keep adding people but we're not going to make it easier for them to get to work or move around.

22
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Yep. Adding more people for no rhyme or reason except for diversity (explicit) and economic growth (explicit / implicit).

Bums on seats, except for an entire country?

Adding more pareto-optimal GDP

14
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At 2% (90 thou) immigration we are way out in front in terms of welcoming people into this country compared to the rest of the world. Winning?

24
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Welcome to NZ where you earn less than you would elsewhere in the West, pay more for living essentials, get put on a waitlist for critical surgeries and feel free to send your kids to our moldy classrooms!

23
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Sounds absolulety terrible. Why do they still want to come here to this hell hole? The Russian uber driver in his 60's who recently conveyed me for point A to B in Christchurch did an arm dance of jubilation in the car when he told me that he and his wife were now on national super. He'd spent most of his life in Vladivostok.

20
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Why do they still want to come here to this hell hole?

Only because we're less hellish compared to the places where tens of thousands of cooks and cart-pushers arrive from each year.

28
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This is the thing that bothers me the most. Our country simply can't afford to pay super to people that haven't paid taxes in NZ for 20 years.

JustAnOpinion '90 thou' would roughly work out at 2 immigrants for every baby born. I guess they don't like us and want us diluted out?

What are you talking about? We've found the key to Pandora's box and figured out what 42 actually means. All we need to do to be prosperous is print money, then hand it out to people so they can sit at home and watch Netflix and eat potato chips. I really can't see what the problem is here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but with QE we have a neverending unlimited supply of capital to enable spending in the economy. It's exactly the same way our primary industry, property works. A country full of landlords and beneficiaries. We pay each other money created out of thin air, and grow increasingly richer. You lot must be thick!

And what about the health care costs as well

What was his name? It's coincidental that seems to fit in with the hysterical communist narrative you lot pump out every day. Oh look! He's Russian!

I had to scroll back to see why you were talking about a Russian. I guess the salient point of the comment for me (immigrants arriving and sucking up tax-funded benefits despite not contributing much/anything to the tax pool) was different to what you got out of it.

28
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Did they not just say 2days ago that they would like less people arriving here I guess that was a lie.

What is new?

11
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Does any body actually do a cost benefit analysis for these people that we are adding.
Each Family will require a new house to be built somewhere in the country because already we have people living on the streets, cars and motels. Can't escape that one. $1 Million if in Auckland.
Then we need to provide all the extra infrastructure, services etc - at least another $ million or two.
If we are making this sort investment to bring these people in to the country, what rate of return would we want. I would not settle for anything less that 10%, as it seems such a risky stupid proposition. So are they going to generate a $200,000 to $300,000 per year profit for each family over and above their wages and the cost of government services that they are provided? Practically all the immigrants that we would let in under the 40,000 plus soles that they are talking about would not have a hope of getting any where near that. Most of the low skilled shop keepers, hospitality staff etc, etc that have historically come here would barely make any net profit for the country let alone those figures.
We are governed by total idiots.

But we need to let them in to pick apples and build more houses for the next 200k arriving and carry on down this path.
Maybe free tickets to OZ and New Zealand underwrites social security for kiwis in Australia as a safety net while they find jobs and affordable homes/rents.
They have more homes in smaller towns that are cheaper than here or do we keep them in motels here for 1300 a week plus other benefits on top.
From latest RBA updates they are going to be screaming out for staff just like us maybe Australia government may even change its stance on Kiwis and start poaching good staff from here.

No, the national party didn't do any of those costings. They delivered a low wage economy instead

Immigration was high under the previous labour government too. The difference was the many more people were living to Australia as well. This is not defending National, just challenging your partisan view that everything today is to be blamed on National when Labor is just the same.

Labor hasn't demonstrated any differently for sure, but they did start to turn off the tap. Partisan? Sure, like every one else, just maybe not like you think

Making our per capita emissions targets even lower and housing g demand higher. In 10 years there's going to be a lot of unemployed builders

Where does this "high population growth " assumption come from ? According to recently released population and immigration statistics, as posted to this site, of over 5,000 student and work visa holders leaving NZ. a month, our borders being essentially closed to. grants (except entertainers), and our net birth rate per woman of around 1.6 it is a mystery. To which can be added the resumption of the familiar flood of Kiwis to the greener fields across the ditch. Having had some experience with econometric and other "models" and simulations, I am very aware of the importance of GIGO.

20
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I am surprised he has anything left over to spend after greasing all the palms of the Rotorua slumlords.

I think you are right, let's return all those fine upstanding citizens from whence they came.

12
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Scary warning from Robbo, a 'sharp drop' in growth of house prices. Oooooohhh!! Frightening!! On his watch I expect prices to only go up by 10% per year, until the eventual pop. Would like someone to explain to me why his warning of prices going up slower is going to deter buyers.

'The Government is forecasting a significant slowing in house price growth in the coming years, after the New Zealand market's recent red-hot run.
"This is a very sharp adjustment in house prices but a very necessary one," Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in today's budget lockup.'

That's the Never-never land promise: house prices keep on increasing at a slower rate but they also become more affordable.

13
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How much would our salaries and wages need to go up overnight tonight just to get parity with house price growth over the last couple of years?

10
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lol awesome that's some numbers I'd like to see.

House inflation was 26.8% for the year ending April 2021, I wonder what our society would look like if we all got a 26.8% pay rise?

The unemployed have just got a 17.97% raise from Labour this budget that would be a dream come true. Maybe working is over-rated?

23
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Sharp drop in house price growth! Hah! What we need is a sharp drop in house prices not just house price growth or provide 100% top up of our wages for the next 10 years to make housing affordable until our pay catches up. I have had enough of labour. Not again. What an utter let down on housing and immigration. We are bursting at the seams. Where are the additional hospital beds, classrooms in schools, roading, housing etc for the continued increase in immigration? Auckland doesn’t even have water for the existing population. 1000 houses for Maori and how many are you letting into the country? 100,000?

Saw stuff refer to it as a crash in house price growth. A crash

19
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It's no use shaking your head in frustration and despair because it is a case of idiots, writing for idiots, about idiots.

14
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Yes I think Stuff was never more deserving of it's name, there's stuff all in there worth reading.

Still I like to keep an eye on clown world happenings as they impact on everyone

More like clown islands.

Sounds like the comments section here

The same sort of adjustment occurred in 2016-19 but folk are not keen on examining that.
24% growth in Auckland for 2 years, followed by 3.5 years with total growth of about -3%.
Chinese credit impulse of 2013-15 started last mania and its reduction caused the drop in 2017.
Guess what China did in early 2020? Yep, huge increase in printing.

Productivity support = $200m for the Tourism sector and $44m for an advisory service.

China average working (40 hour week) salary for a person ~ $250 NZD before tax. NZ minimum unemployment benefit for a person working zero hours a week - $315 NZD before tax (after the $48 raise this budget).

I'm sure you can buy a lot more essentials for $250 NZD in China than you can for $315 NZD here.

Well I would like to see any data you might be basing that view on? Is there a comparison anywhere?

NZ is roughly twice as expensive as China. Here you go... https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-ppps

Thanks, that makes the disparity more understandable. The gap is 50% or thereabouts so the average weekly wage in China under this analysis would be more like $500 NZD before tax.

That's not like for like though, and it depends on which cities you're comparing. E.g. PSM costs to buy an apartment in Shanghai are ~3x higher than in Wellington so if housing is your biggest cost you'd need to earn much more in Shanghai.

And likely all basic jobs in Shanghai pay more to start with. Just like most jobs in NYC pay more than the same job in Raleigh.

23
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Two weeks after telling the public service they wouldn't be getting anything they come out and dole out 20%+ increases for unemployed. All while our economy is "doing great".

For Ardern and Robertson to claim that our economy has come out of the pandemic better than before is a complete lie. Look how much we have borrowed for nothing more than a few weeks at home for workers and a pay rise for those that don't work at all.

The thing is that all the increases are locked in in perpetuity, they will still be locked in long after Robbo has burned through his $65 Billion slush-fund.

20
up

the scarier prospect here - was according to stuff - the average "non working family" has received an extra $`175 per week (or $9100 per annum) since labour came to power. Meanwhile the minimum wage has risen by $170 a week since labour came to power.

So not been employed reaps the same benefits as been employed on minimum wage. No wonder there are a large number of hospitality and agricultural jobs not filled in NZ.

17
up

I totally agree. This is a budget for bludgers.

12
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That's a bit harsh, how else are landlords going to service their mortgages if we don't increase benefits? /s

So severely disabled people still do not have enough money for a 1 room flatting and food and you say they are bludgers because no one hires people in powerchairs to pick fruit or and no one provides wheelchair office access in most jobs. Sure next we should say those over the age of 65 are all bludging because they have much more mobility and access to work than the much smaller set of people so physically impaired they need help bathing and food prep assistance.

Yet it is the more mobile (and often still working, with additional income included from investments) people over 65 who receive far more funding and access to housing than the actually most vulnerable least able to be employed and needing basic medical support. Try having all your muscles, organs included rot away genetically then come back and say severely disabled people should be out there picking fruit while having to be fed through a tube on heart meds.

You've hit the nail there. There would be more cash for people who have no choice about work if those who could did work and those who don't work but breed do so.

Except those on the largest benefits are predominantly actually are still working and receiving large investment income. It does not add up. Also I sincerely doubt a <1 year old can look after themselves.

I wonder if the employers have ever thought of offering more pay to try attract applicants?

Employers don’t have the same access to the money tree the government has access to.

They also don't have as many dependants as the government.

Haha!

Come in 10.00flat white.

Correction this actually drops support for disabled people much like the other "increases" which cut funding support for those so disabled they cannot get any work and facing higher living costs.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/13-05-2021/they-said-the-changes-would-...

12
up

I'd like to tell him shove his ever increasing house prices where the sun don't shine.

15
up

There will a sharp drop in house prices*

*note: in the annual growth in house prices.

10
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Have we suddenly had less demand for housing? When the borders open there will be a flood of immigrants. That's what always happens when we turn down the productivity.

He's in charge of the fiscal situation, not monetary. Ask Orr

Even 2.5% growth in housing in 2025 is unsustainable. Because the average house is now 10x the average income and both growing at 2.5% long term doesn't work.

It requires interest rates to continue to drop to support that - otherwise you will need wages increasing at 5% to cover the rising interest rate costs as houses grow cumulatively/exponentially larger than wages.

But if wages are growing at 5%, it means we have high inflation, which means interest rates will be rising, which means mortgages rates will also be higher. Doesn't stack up.

Or increased savings for highest deposits, or an influx of cash-rich immigrants.

11
up

There remains unchecked the huge gulf, the disparity in wages. When I started work in the early 60s, the boss earned half as much again as the middle executive which anyone could reach with due application. Since rogernomics those upper tier pay rates have simply been strapped to a rocket, out of reach. NZ is paying high end execs at the top of the ladder far too much and those on the bottom rungs too little. Yet those low end jobs, manual, unsexy are neverthe less essential. Therefore hikes to the minimum wage are essential too and there should be a meaningful margin available provided there too, to attract and motivate those that skimp life by sitting it out on a benefit. Personally, admittedly simplistically, would much sooner have the government paying their workers in that category more, than the same for benefits.

Unfortunately its skills based supply and demand. There will be some pretty wealthy builders in a few years time.

13
up

NZ's international status as a rich country will end in the next three decades.

Except property owners, they'll be good.

China will never get to 'rich' status.

watch the price of lotto go up

14
up

and of junk food too - this is a KFC's budget

- Drug buying agency Pharmac got a $200 million increase as Labour delivered on its election pledge to increase the funding.

- As well as the $380m for new Maori housing, a further $350m of the previously announced $3.8b Housing Acceleration Fund has been ring-fenced to help enable the construction of more homes for Maori. The Budget also establishes the Māori Health Authority, which will be set up out of a $243 million allocation for Māori health.

16
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Children not having enough is a tragedy! Who's fault is this? The government or the parents? IMO, especially in a time when unemployment is so low, the blame is with the parents. If that's the case, more money for the benefit won't give the unemployed parents any incentive to find a job to care for their families, quite the opposite

11
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The problem is that deciding who to blame doesn't solve the problem. You can blame parents until the cows come home, but the kids still need help.

13
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And will they get it? The extra money will be spent on the kids aye?

Yes - that is almost always exactly what happens. There has been endless research on this - when parents who are struggling to get by get more money, they spend it on their kids.

https://morganfoundation.org.nz/the-myth-of-how-families-in-poverty-spen...

It is not blaming. It is a fact that no money can counter negligent parenting. But not all poor and unemployed parents are negligent, so this would definitely help their kids, at least a little bit.

It is an unfortunate reality that children born into broken, dysfunctional, negligent households and families are beyond the help of the society by and large (with some heart warming exceptions) regardless of what government is trying or not trying to do. Some parents, regardless of their wealth, income and social status will die to protect their offsprings. Some not only do nothing to help their kids, may even harm them themselves.

20
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Landlords will look at how much benefits will go up and adjust their rents accordingly.
This is what happened last time benefits went up.

Exactly. Then claiming "we had no choice the market sets rent"!

Maybe the extra should be issued only to be used on food (healthy).
Our whole system is so unhealthy like you say that all this increase and then some will be sucked up in rent.
It has become a trap even for working class that if you are not on the ladder it is very tough.

There is also no certainty the increase will be spent on the children.

That's precisely my point

Except studies that confirm extra money is spent on kids. But why let mere facts stand in the way of your bigotted views?

That’s pretty daft - compare number of job vacancies (about 25,000) to number of people looking for work (130,000) + the number of people who want more work (230,000) + the people who have given up trying but might come back if the right job came up locally (100,000s).

A country without enough jobs cannot really leave it’s unemployed people to live in destitution.

14
up

“ a country without enough jobs?” Then why in hells name is NZ, and this government has duplicitously left this entry door well more than ajar, bringing in more and more immigrants?

Good question. Presumably because:
- there is a skills / location mismatch between the jobs available and the people looking for jobs
- it is economically beneficial to import skilled and productive people that have been educated at the expense of other countries (bargain!)
- the temporary nature and general crapness of a lot of our jobs means they are only suitable for people from places where working conditions are even worse

Or maybe we just need more chefs. Lots more chefs.

You need to spend sometime talking to disadvantaged families, your statement around parental blame is wide of the mark in most cases.

Well that is a fact free reckon that just reveals your bigotry..

21
up

The Bludger's Budget

Yep, no doubt the land-leeches will be salivating at the prospect of lining their pockets with more taxpayer dollars.

12
up

The Bludgit.

Comment of the day.

Sure next we should say those over the age of 65 are all bludging because they have much more mobility and access to work than the much smaller set of people so physically impaired they need help bathing and food prep assistance.

Nice one Richard prebble

24
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Wow, Scott Base is getting $306 million!! That puts the $200 million for Parmac in perspective....

And the bottom-less pit / ultimate white elepant known as KiwiRail bags another $$810 million!! Sweet as bro!

Hey, Te Huia runs twice a day for a cool $100m, on that basis we might be able to run a train from Hamilton to Auckland (very very slowly I might add) 16 time a day, almost one every hour...

yeah we could have 1/2 of a motorway interchange for that money, and move the traffic jam 1 k down the road. Thats not a subsidy though .

The Waikato "expressway" is mysterious project for example. The part I live close to in Hamilton has been "finishing in 2019", "finishing in 2020" and now "finishing in 2021" which it absolutely will not. I wonder who actually keeps a track of these programmes, NZTA based in Wellington seems to have no accountability for these incessant delivery failures.

On another note, this budget is focused on charity not subsidies. A subsidy makes something produced cheaper to buy. Charity is giving money to people for doing nothing. Except perhaps in the case of those long-term unemployed who have many kids, then we are giving them a subsidy for having kids.

Hilariously, Transmission Gully has had the same thing down here. Only thing now is, the last digit of the year is now one of those old cricket signs, where they can replace the last digit with another one. I am actually expecting them to change the last 2 digits of the year to be replaceable, then they have up to 2099 to finish.

15
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I hope Kiwirail doesn't continue to buy those crappy trains from China...

I am sure they will

Maybe they should buy some electric ones instead, seeing how we have all those kilometers of electrification sitting idle.

So we're having a spend up based on higher than expected Treasure forecasts? Not sure how smart that is...

10
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It's just wall to wall "good news" transmitted by our media. Remember when our national debt was 'very bad' under the Key government? Now we borrow $100 million a day and it's wonderful as our debt is significantly lower than that of the US and Japan. Never mind that we are a nation of only 5 million people. The media have already got over 50% of Kiwi's slavishly devoted to Labour, but can they get that percentage even higher?!? They will try!

Social Unemployment Insurance
Now that is something to watch and they say in will be rolled out in a few years just in time maybe for our housing market popping unless of course they let 100 -200 k more people per year and force many more into hotels and cars.
I own my own house and would prefer prices to go negative for a while than keep pumping the bubble.
The bigger this bubble rises the bigger the mess and I fear todays budget has just opened the doors to buy now before they open the borders again and we see another 20 plus percent increase.
I have been happy not owning a rental and just investing in business and shares but now I feel like I need to buy my kids something before prices double again and with government ramping feels like you will never loose but then again why introduce Social Unemployment Insurance unless they are predicting tough times ahead.
We are soon going to see what path we go down maybe I will wait till 2024 kids are still young enough to see what happens.

19
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This country is so screwed. Even the have's should be able to see the shit storm developing in our society. Another couple of years of Labour will take us to the brink of total collapse. What other party in their right mind is going to want to inherit this mess ?

Best to start thinking about your NZD and other assets and how you can move someout before everyone else starts to wake up.

Also the Social Unemployment Insurance (maybe call it UBI) is a sneaky way of back stopping everything but how much will that cost taxpayers.

Probably it would be paid for by employers, like in other countries. Which means less profitability and lower wage rises.

Yes - unemployment insurance will be a new tax on businesses. It is unlikely that we’ll hear much complaining from big businesses though, as they seem to have decided that it is best to cheer everything the government does. And why not - the New Zealand government is the biggest client for many of them, and it is only growing. Publicly support government announcements, speak the Labour language and the contracts will flow - never mind growing the economy. The future of New Zealand is government.

Wonder if Airnz will increase the one way ticket from NZ to OZ...expect they will after this nothing budget. Only the 200m to pharmac was the positive. They screwed House prices and rents so much, which continue to increase, that the increase in welfare will be gone by end of September.

Whoopdee doo

Its a swing and a miss!
Jobs & Income.

17
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Does giving more money to parents who are not able to look after their children, help the children ?

Does taking money from parents who are not able to look after their children, help the children ?

21
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If you can't feed 'em don't breed 'em.

What a disgusting comment.

There is no chance of money being taken away under this government surely?

Yes. Not those ones, but the ones that would have been born but were not....

Has it helped to date?

It's a bit like one of those fruit trees that bares no fruit. I think you could call it a tree in the woods.
Comparing this budget with what was 'promised' in 2017 to this budget. It seems to be the budget for most of what was promised then, now?
So if that's the case, I expect that the delivery 'bit' will come ... sometime in the future? Maybe??

Without credible opposition, Labour have flaked out.

National is flat on the canvas & Collins unelectable - Muldoon in drag, what a disaster for democracy when you have no opposition. The lefty media (and Winston Peters in 2017) have certainly played a major part in killing off any opposition.

Even after the colossal election defeat her party saw last year, Collins doesn't get that she has led the party far away from the expectations of NZ majority by pandering hard to a minority of low-value business owners and farmers (entrepreneurs as she calls them.. wow).

Her counter to Labour's central planning seems to be for the government to completely get out of the business of planning and policymaking altogether.

"Yes it requires historic debt" - that's all I can remember her saying in the last election campaign. Pretty much a ringing endorsement of Labour and a commitment to heaps more debt no matter who is charge.

Who in their right mind would bother with being in opposition to the most popular leader in recent times against all the media? It's almost self-harm. Perhaps someone should check in on her?

Muldoon in drag is hard (if hilarious) but just imagine for a moment if she were. My hazy memories of him are he loved giving the media a smashing, with absolutely no respect. These days a politician's greatest skill is to apologise without really apologising (Ardern is a Jedi Master here).

So he thinks that they can not only control house prices, but that they can fix the rate of growth to their target band. I remember the UK Chancellor saying something very similar in the 90s about their exchange rate mechanism on the pound. They ended up losing billions of pounds of taxpayers of money trying to defend their position against speculator George Soros. Moral of the story, governments control zip when it comes to markets. Any major changes in direction will be purely down to the animal spirits. Try over laying NZ house prices on a BTC chart..uncanny.

People are caught up in the hype, the reversal is inevitable, its just a matter of Time. We can sustain average prices being 10+ time household income.

Also very similar to the UK Post gfc, I think after this government we are in for a few years of austerity, we'll Get inflation for sure. Just not with our incomes.

Problem with Labour party is that went out of the way to support rich and speculators - pleasing national supporters and now wants to please - so called Labour supporters by giving benefits/dole.

What happens to hard working average Kiwi who are not interested in dole but opportunities and had aspiration to do more for themselves and their family.

Increasing dole is demotivating people to work, unemployment benefit should be for emergency and not a norm for lifetime. Anything in extreme is bad. Balance has to be created.

Basic necessity of life - home has been turned into speculative / casino cheap and both government and RBNZare trying hard to resist from taking action on speculation.

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I think you'll find the woke crowd, the virtue signallers, and the champagne socialists etc all are loving their house price growth. Cloak yourself in moral superiority & live it up in a 'capitalist' society: everyone's doing it you know. It's epitomised by JA, cashing in via her swish digs in Point Chevalier.

TV- closest comment to the truth, thus far.

Reminds me of RadioNZ.

Yeah. They are even more detestable than the materialistic capitalists. At least the latter don't pretend to have a social conscious.

It's further entrenchment of social class along the lines of property ownership. I'm Not sure about right now, but if we keep this up we will start to see the social unrest side eventually. Trump or brexit style populism Etc.

From C.S. Lewis's essay anthology "God in the Dock" (1948):

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be 'cured' against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.

It is no wonder that so many of the younger generation dislike (being kind) boomers.

Without the big revenue growth they're (we're) even more screwed.

Its just a budget / forecast. Looks adequate but I'm picking there's more speculation here than the housing market.

“We’re looking at a scheme that could provide those who lose their jobs with around 80% of their income, with minimum and maximum caps,”
So tell your doctor you have anxiety and depression , give up job and enjoy life??

Anxiety/depression is the commonest reason to be on the sickness benefit

What are you basing your comment on? I can't see any reference to the 'sickness benefit' paying 80% of someone's previous income.

It's proposed that the sickness benefits are modeled on the ACC,which is supposed to give you 80% of what you earned ,i0n perpetuity

3.3 billion to get 33000 kids out of poverty =$100,000 per kid
Think I'll have a second childhood

That's nothing, the RBNZ has decided to print $100b and give it to property owners over the past year (although I think it's only up to around $70b).

If we have 100k kids in poverty in this country, that's $1m per kid. Could have solved poverty overnight if they really wanted to. But instead, the powers that be decided to give themselves a massive payout in tax free equity (because they almost all own houses).

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Buying Maori votes. Money won't fix issues around poverty, violence and poor health. This comes from the family, and especially the Mother. In another 20yrs Maori will still be at the bottom of the pile. Just more squandered money.

If Labour don't keep 'delivering for maori' (euphemism for 'keep that cash coming') then history shows that maori will ditch them for the Maori Party or NZ First in the electorate seats.

No, money definitely makes no difference to poverty at all.

And your comment is abhorrent.

On a wholesale basis, Maori were locked out of the land/money tree when nz was colonised. And acknowledgement of This (along with a response) hasn't really existed until relatively recently in the journey of nz as a modern state.

It could take dozens, maybe hundreds of years for that disadvantage to balance out.

Yes self responsibility is important at a family level, but historical disadvantage exists and wealth is usually transfered down family lines.

Still its a money scramble.

What rubbish. Studies show more money for families does fix issues around poverty, violence and poor health.

Wonderful how National is calling for productivity increases. Do they mean things like importing cheap migrants to pick fruit?

I think that since our entire economy is apparently based on the 'wealth effect' of big house price increases, maybe they want the Reserve Bank to do something productive and slash interest rates again, and print some more money while they are at it, and for the government to do something productive and repeal the foreign buyer ban and the interest deductability changes.

National (nor Labour) wouldn't know what productivity even is, let alone how to achieve it. Their last version was to absolutely smash productivity by bringing in cheap labour and destroying our milk quality reputation by encouraging us to be a volume producer instead of quality producer. John Key literally admitted that was their plan in a speech he gave to Westpac.

If that's their definitely of productivity increases, we are all stuffed. The Labour version isn't any better, they think productivity increases means raising the minimum wage and giving more money to people on benefits (which will equate exactly to a rise in rents, so a subsidy to landlords).

Neither of them have a clue.

'destroying our milk quality reputation' so that's why NZ dairy product gets higher prices on the international market, over other countries.

Which won't last for long as industrial dairying becomes a thing in this country (if it isn't already). Why do we fetch higher prices? Quality right? Well if the quality degrades because our environmental conditions degrade and we increasingly have to supplement feed with palm kernel... what do you think will happen?

This isn't rocket science, high value, high quality produces higher prices. Any moves that reduce quality will result in lower prices. Same for every type of commodity.

What environmental degradation do you associate with falling milk quality and causing feed shortages and therefore, the need for more PKE being fed?

?? Have you not noticed the state of our rivers which are now largely unswimmable? Not noticed the high loads coming through ground water and poisoning people? That's damage to our "clean green" reputation which our milk markets itself as. There are literally beautiful pictures of cows feeding on grass with Mt Taranaki on the background in shops in China, hiding the reality of industrial dairying. Feed shortages??? We have too many cows for the amount of grass that we can grow, even after applying all the nitrates/phosphates etc to make the grass grow as fast as possible. Invariably that leaches into the ground and waterways. So we have more cows than the ground can support which means we are overloading the land, so we have to import PKE to feed them.

Funny how people who don’t have to try and live on a benefit criticise the increase given out to beneficiaries today. I say to them. Try to live on a benefit especially with children to feed etc. Not all of them are bludgers. Some are. How many tradies and people in business declare all their income to IRD. How many pay their staff a living wage. There are bad people everywhere and in all walks of life.

Who said all beneficiaries are bad? Life can be tough for all of us, irrespective of whether we get hand-outs from the state or hand-outs via central bank policies or wages / salaries via a paying job.

Still waiting for something BOLD Robertson. Pathetic.

More money go towards rent.

‘The Landlords Budget’

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I thought we were not allowed to discriminate on the base of race ? If so why does a section of NZ citizens get more because of their race ?

You need to read some history.
You've shown in the past with comments about moriori that you are pretty ignorant when it comes to our history.
Every immigrant that wants permanent residency should be required to take attend a course in Aotearoa's history, and what it has meant for our indigenous people (in many negative ways).

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They weren't any better before. They, too, overshot and had to migrate, or fight.

But without freezers and without fossil energy being applied to their own energy, they needed to eat the freshly-dead protein post-battle. The woke do-good brigade have attempted to call this 'ritual'- thus re-writing history and avoiding abhorrence. Leave them to it, an 100 years from now WW1 was half women and nobody had guns. Re-writing history is a rabbit-hole of grotesque proportions. Alice ain't the half of it.

I didn't say anything about Maori and the environment. That's a whole other conversation...
My point was, Maori have been disproportionately adversely impacted by colonialism. As per all colonized people.
Anyone who does not agree is ignorant, or a bigot, or both....

But as descendants of individuals they haven't been more impacted than if they had been on the wrong side of any outcome pre colonisation, and only exist today because of colonialism.

It's like blaming your parents for being born.

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Let me summarise pre European history for you: Prior to European arrival life in NZ was hard, very hard. With a lack of wool, cotton or leather (yes, I know Maori skinned seals) a key challenge was keeping warm. The tribes were fractious and at war, with the Musket Wars between the tribes killing thousands. Slavery and rape was endemic. The archaeological record shows many Maori, especially around Banks Peninisula were protein deficient and with evidence of rickets. The diet was crap. But apparently life was just heaven until Whitey turned up. Blamed for every ill and ailment. Maori nationhood never existed and still doesnt. The only common ground is sucking in tax payers for a sense of complicity in their poor social status. Anyone want a payout....

You have previously said you are from the UK. Now I know a lot of poms who are lovely, informed and intelligent. You are none of those things. And your last statement was racist, I have reported you. I don't think there should be any tolerance on this website for racism.

Calls him racist. Uses word pom in a derogatory context...

The comments are racist, derogatory and lazy. Which parts do you think aren't?

Btw look at your own fucken European history. The English and other Europeans did plenty of hideous things back in the day.
Racist.

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Grow up.

If you disagree then state your case with reason and facts, not whataboutism and cries of 'racist!' meant to silence those whose opinion you don't like. Actually, on second thoughts yell it from the rooftops all day long - the sooner that crap loses it's shock value the better off we will all be.

How about this Computer, at my high school my Head of Faculty has been openly spouting "all whites are racist" all week, prompted by the mana oorite (meaning equality) teacher only day. To the visible shock and sadness of her peers...

Yeah we were nasty. Complicit in wars of religion, Irish famine and through another side the Holocaust.
Racist gets thrown around whenever you oppose a Maori position. I should clarify that the musket wars were post colonial when trade for muskets was used for inter tribal warfare. If you want local genocide check out how Maori treated the Moriori on the Chathams. Seeking redress for a treaty in 1840s is like the Irish blaming the UK for forced emigration (Australia) and the potatoe famine, and wanting redress whilst claiming drug use, child abuse is the fault of the UK. Get over yourselves. The biggest impediment to Maori is other Maori, especially those who seek to blame others rather than themselves

HM, True, and you don't often see the winners pander to the losers of territories in Europe. Even less so write a contract with them signaling a sharing of power. It is worth noting prior European settlement the life expectancy of Maaori in NZ was 28-30. I think its naieve/romantic to think just because you were somewhere first you have a special claim, I'm not sure where that comes from; in reality battles a fought and the spoil go to the victor (sadly). Just some thoughts.

Wow, I never knew that Māori had muskets before the Europeans arrived - you learn something new everyday.

Yes, that ignorance managed to stand out amid a diatribe so racist I'm surprised the editors haven't modified it (but this site is moving hard right). Oh, the seal skins as well, cracked me up.

Uni of Otago did the analysis of human remains from Banks Peninsula. IIRC correctly, evidence of seal bones with cut marks implied they were a food source, and possibly a form of insulation eg Inuits. The lack of warm attire was a major impediment to settling in colder parts of NZ. Not sure how that is racist?

As per usual a little further analysis is required hopefully using the correct numbers. An extra $380m for a 1000 houses for Maori. That $380,000 per house. At an approximate $3500/m2 that gives ~100m2 house not too bad. Where's the land cost? Ah maybe its on Maori land so belongs to the tribe. So again numbers with no substance. It's buried in the small print, or just a number more less conjured up, or the devil is in the detail which be later thought up. Of course to administer this will suck up some more funds to come out of the $380m

I'd like more help for anyone at the bottom. I will ask my Pasifika colleagues tomo if they feel marginalized with the Maori focus.

This budget lacks inspiration, innovation and....transformation.
Mediocre.
This government is not doing the future of our country and it's people any favours.

Jacinda said that the budget will deliver 200,000 jobs over four years. (Could be like the 100,000 houses over 10 years).

Just saw the Jacinda-Bot 2000 on Seven Sharp. She is the ultimate political robot, programmed to be a master communicator.

It's tiring.
All style, no substance.

When the mouth smiles but the eyes don't you know shes telling you lies, which nowadays is 99% of the time.

You guys just can't admit you're wrong can you

Not sure of the source but I did read somewhere that helping those less fortunate actually helps everyone. The extra $175 will be spent and not saved. That is a lot of extra cash in circulation. Where it ends up is another argument entirely.

most of it will end up in rent, and both ACT and national were pushing that today, but when they were in power they did nothing to slow down the house price increases and building of houses to fix the problem, instead they kicked the can down the road.
the simple solution is a MASSIVE state house building programme.
ionically all week the have been showing a doco of the mother of all budgets on parliament tv and that is where it started, the bringing in of market rents for state housing and the creation of accommodation supplement and tax laws to favour private rentals

@sharetrader. Don't forget the stable population approach. With that in place houses and infrastructure can catch up. Without it, not a chance.

So, the hollowing out of the working and lower middle classes is to continue. Superb!

Good to see the table comparing the Welfare Expert Advisory Group recommended increases in benefits to what is proposed in the budget.

Pity, though, that the budget writers felt the need to deliberately mis-represent the changes.

Two factors stand out. First, the WEAG recommendations were based on increases compared to the levels of benefits in 2019 when the final report was released. The budget shows increases since 2017, not 2019.

Second, there is no allowance in the comparison for the cost of living increases since the 2019 reports.

Overall effect is to overstate the extent to which the government is implementing the WEAG recommendations. Deliberately.

unemployment to go down..really...won't you need the productivity in the commercial world go up so they can employee people. The shovel ready projects are no existent (from last budget), nothing much in this one. Unless the public sector is going to double in size, which I suspect they will. He just better hope the interest on there massive borrowings does not go up too much.

I have read many of the 171 posts, but have not yet seen one in support of the budget. Since voters decisively backed a Labour government, they are only doing what you would expect a left-leaning government to do. What did you all expect? Tax cuts?
I didn't vote Labour and they are clearly not particularly efficient, but I am not unhappy to see benefits raised materially, if only because every cent of that money will be recirculated in the economy.

i would have rather they changed the tax system than hand out more money, make the first 5 or 10k tax free, it seems illogical to me to give people more in benefits (hand out) then take it away again in tax and does not advantage those working on low incomes in any way

linklater01 - it WON'T be recirculated in the economy, it will be gobbled up by rent rises. This in turn goes to support higher house prices and the 4 aussie banks.

Until the government fixes the underlying issues, no amount of benefit raises will make beneficiaries better off. Don't believe me? Check out what moteliers are charging the government per week for single rooms and try and tell me landlords who know their tenants are beneficiaries won't be upping rents after the recent government actions.

Yes, these increases are not an addition, but really make up for the subtraction of disposable income already caused by the unnecessary higher cost of living, eg unaffordable housing, that Govt policies have caused.

Basic economic fact, all savings get captured by any restriction in the system, starting with the most restrictive part. So if this extra money causes any increase in demand on a product that is in short supply, or can be artificially restricted, then the price of that product will rise and absorb any initial benefit the extra money was meant to give.

Net result, you are usually worse off within one to two spend cycles. That is why the more they do this, the worse things will get until it crashes, then gets really bad while it reverts to the mean.

$5,000/ wk for a motel room in Porirua for social housing.

I own property like many here. My tenants are lifetime beneficiaries, with dependents at home on benefits, many on disability benefits. Their rent has been approx $100/ wk below market. Not anymore. Not with the new policy. Not with the benefit increases.

Unfortunately their extra benefits going on higher rent won't be circulated into the economy. It'll go straight to council rates which has skyrocketed. A miracle house insurance hasn't skyrocketed yet either.

I own property like many here. My tenants are lifetime beneficiaries, with dependents at home on benefits, many on disability benefits. They are all good people who through a combination of some really bad luck, really bad genes, some stupid choices, poor education find themselves as they are. They have stable housing they can keep pets and stay longterm, 7yrs+ some of them. The weed smokers are the most chilled out and just watch TV all day. I don't rat on them and they don't cause too much damage or aggravation to neighbours. Rent has been approx on average $100/ wk below market. Not anymore. Not with the new policy. Not with the benefit increases.

Unfortunately their extra benefits going into higher rent won't be circulated into the economy. It'll go straight to council rates which have skyrocketed. A miracle house insurance hasn't skyrocketed yet either.

What a shameful parade of negativity, cynicism, partisan cleverdickery and meanness of spirit in these comments. For the last thirty years, public economic policy has been biased towards giving businesses the most helpful environment in which to flourish, while ignoring the mounting social costs that arose from such policy. Now, when there is an attempt to redress harmful social inequities, those who have benefited from such a policy are criticising the government for having the sheer gall to care about people other than the business community. The nastiness and naked self-interest underpinning many of these comments is disturbing.

What a shameful parade of negativity, cynicism, partisan cleverdickery and meanness of spirit in these comments. For the last thirty years, public economic policy has been biased towards giving businesses the most helpful environment in which to flourish, while ignoring the mounting social costs that arose from such policy. Now, when there is an attempt to redress harmful social inequities, those who have benefited from such a policy are criticising the government for having the sheer gall to care about people other than the business community. The nastiness and naked self-interest underpinning many of these comments is disturbing.

The self interest of Nurses teachers, social workers, police, Health care providers, DOC staff - in fact all public servants who got 0 ZIP NOTHING SFA - oh wait - a free covid vaccine !!! and a lifetime of government debt to pay off!

The consequences of this Social policy will be a wave of our key frontline staff leaving for Aussie -- and massive shortages of the key staff we need to actually do somethign about the social issues !

Actually, I think you will find for years governments of all colours have only cared about property and asset owners. That's not the same as businesses, if they really cared for businesses, they would have concentrated on productivity enhancements.

I agree, they also haven't cared for the social costs. But you must realise that without changing the system that allows the property owning class to become wealthy without doing anything, their policies just announced (to increase benefits etc) will again flow up to the property owning class via increased rents. The social harms won't be solved by their actions yet again, until they change the fundamentals of the tax system and housing system, any money redirected to the people who are disaffected by those systems will flow directly to those to whom it benefits. You can see this from the last 4 years of Labour trying to fiddle around the edges and now they find themselves in a deeper hole, now paying billions in accommodation supplements and more WFF costs which are all flowing up to the land owning class.

These changes won't fix it either. Rents have gone up 6% in a year, next year they will probably be up 10% because of the changes enacted by Labour recently. The increases in benefits will barely cover the increases in rents, so those mounting social costs will continue to mount.

What most of us are saying Cliopedant is that until the system fundamentally changes, the government will continue to throw money at the problem. And that money comes from the productive parts of the economy via taxation - parts of the economy which are also disaffected by idiotic government policy. The tax system needs huuuuge reform to discourage investment in speculative assets and into productive investment, but no party wants to tackle it. There needs to be a step change in our accounting towards sustainability at the same time as huge investment in innovation to change our emissions and consumption of harmful substances (plastics for instance), but no party wants to tackle it. There needs to be huge re-investment into people's education and access to it, something like a national post high school conscription service into areas of education/trades/armed services/environmental/charity work to promote productivity (Germany does this). Labour is fiddling around the edges of this. There needs to be investigation and actionable changes to the cost of new housing in this country, but no party wants to do anything. The Maori economy needs further support and enhancing whilst at the same time encouraging them to maintain links to and look after the members of their iwi or hapū. Labour are actually doing OK with this last one. Mostly though Labour claim it's being bold, while doing nothing to fix any of the things which require bold action.

All these things flow through to having a better, more productive, relatively cheaper environment for people to live in with the added benefit of a more productive business sector and therefore increased tax pool. They ALSO mean that people on benefits will be relatively better off as their costs would be lower, particularly that of housing AND they could get extra money from the increased tax revenue. At the moment the Labour party and National before it are not addressing the underlying problems, instead acting as an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, trying to deal with the consequences, while often making them worse.

So don't blame us for calling out governments for not doing what is good for the country long term, it is the reckless action of feckless and spineless leaders that has led us here. Had they nipped many of these problems in the bud earlier, we wouldn't have to dramatically increase benefits, nor go back to unionised labour forces, nor do half the things they are obsessed with.

Agree.

NZ obsession with housing should be changed. It is only possible if government and rbnz gets over it themselves, first and think where all this is leading to.

Dp

$50 a week to sit on your arse and not contribute when there are multiple industries crying out for staff -- and $0 a week for hard working NURSES TEACHERS POLICE SOCIAL WORKERS DOC workers etc !

You have just proved my initial point.

One of the many things being missed by this government is that unemployment is rising and the ability to fill jobs due to labour shortages is becoming a major issue for businesses. What it tells us, is that people simply do not wish to work, adding an increase to benefits will only exasperate the situation. The cost to mental health and community by having hundreds of thousands of people wasting away there lives by not actively contributing to society will be unsustainable.
This government has no idea as to the decline in society they are creating.

The government have pushed house prices so high that most people have lost all motivation to work. The harder they work, the further away house prices go. The government have stolen a whole generation of hopes and dreams. They have no future.

Rule #1. You can always fill a job if you pay enough money. What you mean is you cannot find staff because you don't pay enough. The minimum wage is still a joke and by the time you factor in the high transport costs etc you can see why people sit on the Dole. Increasing the unemployment benefit will further reduce the pool of people that pick fruit etc. I have done fruit picking its bloody hard work but back in the day it paid very well on contract if you were fast and was brilliant school holiday work and done 100% by Kiwi's but its all changed now that a cheap labour force can be exploited. You reap what you sow, quite literally in this case.

.Dp 404 Cloud error

It is most amusing to read the New Right's pleas for government (which they supposedly loathe) to help and support business (which is supposed to be manly and independent?) and farmers (ditto) and "create jobs" and not tax business etc. Rhetoric re "free markets" plainly is just that. Governments are elected to "run" the economy and make changes in society. They of course do not "run" economies and changes to society are glacial and soon reversed by next lot. Government job is to regulate private business so it does not run amok and create social instability in its sole goal of personal gain. Other than that, to keep some form of order. Nowadays, everyone seems to think government is there to hand sweetie freebies to whoever is crying for it.

Don't get me started on so-called "free trade agreements" which are anything but

Lots of usual thing on here about job-shy shirkers and parasites who do not want to work.
Not a word of course about our wonderful upper class who don't need to work and who inherited much of their wealth and whose wealth earns income for them without them doing a thing. Of course the rich are all entirely self-made and merit their wealth, whereas the poor are always to blame for their poverty. Systemic analysis entirely, as usual, absent

Usual hilarious GDP forecast which are always better in next 2 years notice.
These should be quoted back to treasury later, when, as usual, they prove ridiculously inaccurate.

Social service agencies I talk to say it is not the beneficiaries who are the rising clientele, but the 'working poor'. They say there is more help available to beneficiaries than the working poor and most of their food bank assistance is now going to the latter. Does anyone here working in this sector see the same or could it be location specific? There is little to nothing, in this budget to help the increasing numbers of 'working poor' in this country.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

A mate of mine is a manager at the Sallies. Every single motel in Porirua is contracted for social housing now. They can't get enough housing of any kind. Lots of people sleep in their cars. Single men are on the bottom rung and have given up trying to get a home. They sleep in cars if they have a car. Single women without children also sleep in cars. It's dangerous and incidents occur. Those with children go to the top of the list. Once they get a social house they don't leave. 3+ kids is the magic number to get max benefits to never work a day in your life again. So they don't. Free furniture, discounted rent and over $1000 wk in the hand. A bit of cash work and drug dealing on the side gives them a great income. Or sell the new free furniture online, then claim more is another favoured money earner. Gang wives with children do a roaring trade with multiple benefits and ill gotten income, then go to the food bank even though they can afford to buy food. So yes, that keeps the working poor unable to access assistance.

It's made my mate very cynical... of the govt, Jacinda, beneficiaries, woke talk of lifting the poor.

Extremely dire situation for more and more people.

We're beneficiaries too. Of the property kind. Only we worked 30 years in shit, low paid jobs we hated. Not making excuses but in NZ you're either a beneficiary, a property owner, dairy farmer but God help the middle income earners working poor.

‘Treasury expects the Government’s recent housing policy tax changes (extension of the bright-line test and removal of interest deductibility) to contribute to annual house price growth falling from 17.3% in the June 2021 quarter to 0.9% by June 2022.’

YES Treasury has predicted house price inflation will be under 1% BUT they didn’t consider the tax impacts of interest deductibility.

See B.3 | 23 of the Budget Economic & Fiscal Update 2021 which states;
“The forecasts incorporate Government decisions and other circumstances known to the Government and advised to the Treasury (up to 30 April 2021). The main exceptions to this are the tax impacts of interest deductibility of the recent housing announcements & impacts of recent health reforms. Neither of these matters are reflected in the fiscal forecasts as not enough information was available to reliably estimate the fiscal impact from these policy changes.”
The government deliberately delayed the announcement so Treasury couldn’t model the impacts. The forecasts of course are not worth the paper they are written on.
What’s more is B.3 | 55 states there is unchanged risk to “increases to market rent”.
It is obvious that the changes that the interest deductibility rules will result in significant increased pressure on rents and emergency accommodation.
It is laughable that on p 16 | B3 that under downside, upside & main scenarios for Covid-19 outcomes that unemployment in all 3 scenarios in June 24 & June 25 converge at about 4%.
These forecasts are simply not credible and far too optimistic for the downside scenario.