Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC raised 9 month to 5 year TD offers sharply, but they are still far below some other major banks.
CATCHING UP
A new ANZ report says the border closure means housing supply is catching up with demand but there's still uncertainty over future immigration settings.
CATCHING UP FAST
In Christchurch, there are clear signs the housing supply pipeline is building, with April consent levels up sharply.
THE EXPECTED TAX TAKE
We have now summarised all the tax and other revenues the Government is Budgeting on for the new fiscal year. It makes interesting reading. For example, taxes on wages and salaries (source deductions) are expected to rise +6.4% in 2021/2022, and an increasing proportion of this will be bracket creep.
THE END OF REFINING IN SIGHT
New Zealand's only oil refining company is pressing ahead with plans to convert its Northland refinery into an import terminal after reaching agreements with Z Energy (ZEL #24) and BP earlier. It only needs to agree with Mobil to complete arrangements with all its major customers.
LACKING ENERGY
The large listed energy stocks listed on the NZX represent 19% of the NZX50's capitalisation, but they are losing value. Over the past month, this group of eight stocks have lost almost -$1 bln (actual -$946 mln). The largest in this group is MEL (#4) and the smallest is TPW (#39).
THOUSANDS NEED TO REVIEW THEIR KIWISAVER, SAYS FMA
Data supplied to the FMA by 11 KiwiSaver providers shows around 12,700 younger KiwiSaver members switched from growth to conservative funds between February and April last year and, most of them are still sitting in conservative funds, which may not be aligned with their long-term savings goals.
FONTERRA WATCH
Fonterra is to update its business performance tomorrow morning, probably before 9am, and a tighter farm gate milk price range is expected for the 2020/2021 season, and likely their first estimate for the 2021/2022 season. Transparency of their earnings for the current year should be forthcoming too, although it may not be a flash result. Their shares are still sinking, with (FCG) them down to $3.44 and below the sharp drop after their May 5 capital structure review announcement. Since May 4 they have fallen -25%.
MONETARY POLICY UPDATE
Of course, tomorrow afternoon the RBNZ issues its May Monetary Policy Statement at 2pm. We will have full coverage, including a link to the live press conference.
BEIJING IGNORED?
After falling marginally yesterday (and many media reports highlighting that slip) the iron ore price has opened today with a small rise on Chinese futures markets. Given Beijing's weekend instructions, today's rise is something unexpected. Ditto coking coal prices.
GOLD WAVERS
The gold price is now at US$1877 in early Asian trading and down -US$7 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES FIRM, EXCEPT THE NZX
The S&P500 ended its Wall Street session up a creditable +1.0% earlier today. The very large Tokyo market has opened its session up +0.6%, Hong Kong is up +1.1% and Shanghai is up +1.4% in very early Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.7% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 Capital Index is sliding and down -0.4% in a growing selloff late in its session. Majors like FPH (#1), RYM (#7), and ATM (#10) are all contributing to today's decline.
SWAP & BONDS YIELDS SLIP AGAIN
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. If there are significant movements today, we will note them here later when we get the data. The 90 day bank bill rate is up + bp at 0.33%. That is a -5 bps fall in a week. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is down another -2 bps since this time yesterday at 1.64%. The China Govt ten year bond is holding at 3.10%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down -3 bps at 1.80% and now back above the 1.78% in the earlier RBNZ fix (-4 bps). The US Govt ten year is down -1 bp at 1.61% as bond markets stay in a risk-off tone.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is holding the overnight +½c gain, now at 72.2 USc. Against the Aussie we have firmed to 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.1euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up at 73.6.
BITCOIN RISES AGAIN IN HIGH VOLATILITY
The bitcoin price is now at US$38,225 and up another +8.7% from this time yesterday. At one point it nearly hit US$40,000 again. Volatility in the past 24 hours is still extreme at +/- 8.0%.
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20 Comments
We will turn to the great oracles of our time - the banks, property investor, real estate organizations of NZ - and they will lead us in peaceful protest and unbiased journalism to ensure our fine politicians can see the error of their ways and prop up the housing market, for the good of all.
Talk about not getting the message.....
'A new ANZ report says the border closure means housing supply is catching up with demand but there's still uncertainty over future immigration settings.'
Stuart Nash: " "When our borders fully open again, we can’t afford to simply turn on the tap to the previous immigration settings. That path is a continuation of pressures on our infrastructure, like transport, accommodation, and downward pressure on wages."
That's the market, demand for houses rises - so the market responds by building houses. All the central bank tinkering has created the bubble issue which now makes additional housing supply a threat to the bubble! How perverse!
How irresponsible to deliberately stoke asset bubbles chasing the fools gold of 'the wealth effect'. It's criminal actually. Just goes to show that these fools who think they can 'command and control' just create systemic risk with the distortions their actions cause.
12,700 younger KiwiSaver members switched from growth to conservative funds between February and April last year
"Well that's fantastic. A really smart decision, young man. We can put that Kiwisaver in a money market mutual fund, then we'll re-invest the earnings into foreign currency accounts with compounding interest aaaand it's gone."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
Those young-uns are smarter than we give them credit for.
RBNZ chief should be happy that FHB are slowly and steadily getting extinct and rich investors are getting back over them - if not now, when. Right time as they have found a messiah in Mr Orr.
Any doubts, wait for the perfomance tomorrow by the entire team of rbnz.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/05/more-first-home-buyers-pul…
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