Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There have been no changes to report today. But there is this.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None announced today here either.
RUSHING TO ENABLE BUILDING MORE HOUSES MORE QUICKLY
The Government, with the support of National, is proposing to urgently change the RMA to enable more houses to be built in some key large cities, including Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch. Serious intensification is on its way, and with bipartisan support.
Farm sales dried up in September with only 53 changing hands in the month, down from 123 in September 2020 and an average of 94 in the past four Septembers. You have to go back to 2010 and when the GFC was biting hard to find a month with fewer sales transactions. At the same time, the number of farms being listed as for sale rose sharply in the first two weeks of October (although still not back to year-ago levels). Dairy and horticulture sales are holding up, but all other types were very weak in September.
'RECORD' LOW
Lifestyle block sales were low too, only 98 were recorded in September nationwide. There has never been a lower month, at least since our records started in 2003.
LIVESTOCK PRICES ARE HIGH
Maybe rather than "can't sell', its a case of not wanting to sell a farm? Livestock prices are mostly at or near record highs for both sheep and cattle (but not deer). And that is somewhat consistent with the fact that farm prices/ha are holding or rising despite the very low transaction levels.
DAIRY PRICE PREVIEW
Dairy prices may get added to that list. There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning and it looks like WMP prices could rise by +2.5% and SMP prices by more than +6% (according to the futures price indicators). That isn't inconsistent with the recovery of the global foodservice sector.
WATCH MY (IN)ACTIONS, NOT MY MINUTES
Regular readers will have noticed (below) that the Aussie benchmark yields are rising quickly. That may have been a surprise given the RBA has been quite dovish recently and made dovish comments in its released meeting minutes. But in fact, the RBA has not been out there defending its three year rate, which has allowed the whole curve to rise. Why they say one thing and do another isn't entirely clear. But the markets are noticing.
PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have risen to 1749 cases reported there today, and more than expected. There are now 22,476 active cases in the state and there were 11 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 273 new community cases reported today with 4,158 active locally acquired cases which is lower, but they had another 4 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting zero new cases again. The ACT has 17 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 68% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 15% have now had one shot so far. There were five new cases in New Zealand at the border, and 94 new community cases. Now 85.1% of Kiwis nationally aged 12 and over have had at lease one vaccination and the Australian rate is now at 84.8% of all 16 year olds and older.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trading, gold is up +US$2 from where we were this time yesterday, now at US$1772/oz.
EQUITIES ALL POSITIVE
The NZX50 is up +0.4% late in its session. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in early afternoon trade. The very large Tokyo market has opened today up +0.5% in morning trade. Hong Kong has opened +1.1% higher in very early trade, and Shanghai has opened more modestly, up +0.2% in opening trade. The S&P500 started out negatively, but gained all day in its Monday session, although the high it reached at the end was only +0.3%.
SWAP & BONDS RATES FIRM
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They probably rose strongly across all terms. So far, the one year swap is up +19 bps, the two year swap at +18 bps. We will update this if there are significantly different changes when the end-of-day data comes through. The 90 day bank bill rate is up another +4 bps at 0.78% as markets price in the next OCR rise. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.73% and up +3 bps from where we were this time yesterday. The China Govt 10yr is now at 3.06% and up +2 bps again. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.31% and unchanged after yesterday's massive rise. The point is, it is holding those CPI-induced gains. But that is now actually below the earlier RBNZ fix for that rate at 2.36% (+11 bps). The US Govt ten year is unchanged at 1.58% from this time yesterday.
NZ DOLLAR FIRMER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up again, now to 71.2 USc and a +40 bps gain in a day. Against the Aussie we are up to 95.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up to 61.2 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 74.7 and now well above the top of the 72-74 range we have been in for most of the past eleven months and its highest in eight months.
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BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$61,804 and -1.0% below this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.
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74 Comments
So NZ has overtaken AU in single dose vax and catching up fast in double dose. Auckland is at 72% / 89%, yet we are still locked down for 2 weeks at least despite almost no deaths, while Melbourne is quitting lockdown with only 70% double vaxed. Quite a big difference in risk tolerance between the two countries isn't it?
Hell, there's a difference over 24 hours in NZ alone: There was no need for a L4 because apparently L3 would be sufficient if people followed the rules, and 24 hours later we bust out a 94 caused by people not following the rules. Well... what now? Are we meant to forget the things that got said yesterday were said and go into each 1pm presser with a blank slate and doe eyes?
Only around 150,000 over 12 potential virus victims, plus younger kids unvaccinated in AK alone,a whole swathe partially vaxxed, 80,000 surgeries deferred so far, looking at 200-500 cases /day soon as it gets into the workplace , our hospital reserves much less than AUS.
Going to be an interesting next 2 months, I'd say at least 50% chance of level 4, no chance of easing level 3 anytime soon
I would say 0% chance of level 4. The Government knows very well that level 4 would simply be ignored by most, and actually cause more cases because of people meeting indoors in groups, rather than outdoors. And people would still go out and frequent parks, beach etc, level 4 or not.
Everybody I know, with no exception, have told me that they have every intention to not respect level 4 if it is introduced again. And I completely understand where they are coming from.
Re-introducing level 4 would be the most moronic thing this Government could do at the current stage, and actually counter-productive.
Out of lockdown you mean?
Today we locked down 1.6 million people meaning they effectively lost a day of their life, that adds up to 50 lives worth of time lost to lockdown just today. For many it is the best years of their life and their education that they can never get back. Yet our supposed health experts never seem to calculate the other side of the coin. Even some kids having a party with almost 0 chance of death is considered the end of the world; they should just give up on their best years so no one ever dies of Covid in NZ.
Victoria currently have about 10 Covid deaths a day. Its probably about their peak assuming they follow NSW trajectory. They have 4x the pop of Auckland, so we would have ~2.5 deaths a day. It would take 120 days just to get to the normal road toll, but the numbers would decrease as the vax rate increased.
"Moronic and counterproductive",don't tempt them...let's just hope the hospitals hold up as the bug is coming ready or not ,fortunately most of the high risk are vaxxed,although Hopkins said ther are 20000+ over 65 unvaxxed in AK still.
Could be long Covid for Xmas for the hesitant masses ,and no Xmas for the ?1%
Just had a look at the UK stats, the overall death rate is higher than I expected at 1.6% of cases. Although I presume the number of cases is fairly inaccurate due to the asymptomatic cases. Even as a % of total UK population it is 0.2% which would be 9000 people in NZ.
But then looking at Melbourne, they have had 0.02% of their population die, that would only be 900 in NZ terms. That is probably the more likely outcome for us with current vax rates.
It's not going to be good by any means, but at some stage we are going to have to go for it. People need to get down to the vaccination centre as we are all getting sick of waiting for them.
Foxglove I feel that I am the only commenter on this site that can see both sides of any coin. I can see that Covid is pretty damn awful, but maybe a bit over exaggerated too. And I can also see the harm, particularly for the young, that lockdowns are causing; people are losing the best years of their lives. To me this is the tipping point: we have reached the point where the harm from lockdown is exceeding the potential harm from Covid, particularly as the vaccine now gives most people a choice. I don't feel we can sit around waiting for people to choose whether to vaccinate, they need to make up their minds now and get it done or put up with any repercussions.
Well it concerns me and more importantly the individuals justifiably would have much greater concerns themselves. However this sector is obviously of neither concern norimportance to our government. Otherwise they would not have thought, in the midst of a pandemic, to impose a wage freeze on it. In my opinion one of the most inane and counterproductive actions any NZ government has ever made.
We haven't had Covid blow through our nursing homes. That's where most of the deaths will occur, sadly. Vaxxed or not, Covid is the grim reaper. It will scare a lot of people. Also, we must prepare for more double vaxxed to get breakthrough infections. (Less severe, but positive nevertheless). As immunity wanes, these cases will also become more severe, so NZ that's the future - endless boosters to renew your immunity ID, unknown attrition on human immune system in the meantime. Zero accountability anywhere. Say nothing of excess mortality rates and heart attacks for 'reasons' in the coming months. It's all been documented in Israel. We are painting by numbers here.
Two things we could do immediately would be to build some field hospitals manned by the military and get some prophylactic protocols out to South Auckland stat. Send out packs of vitamin C, D, zinc. Shut KFC. At the moment it's ok to get a comorbidity, but it's not ok to choose your early treatment for Covid. Strange.
In preparation for your points then, those such as residents in nursing homes and other elderly and/or preconditioned that are vulnerable therefore urgently need boosters. They and all others too, need the ability to freely self saliva test, eg the UK, to enable early detection of covid in any symptoms. Those are precautionary measures adopted by just about all other nations to reduce pressure on hospital admissions. Could our government then follow suit rather than dilly dallying around with the laxity that saw vaccines arrive in NZ far too late.
- The median age of all cases is 31 years (range: 0 to 106 years).
- The median age of deaths is 84 years (range: 15 to 106 years).
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-a…
It will be fascinating to watch how our biggest trading partner goes forward, given the apparent change in stance to the prosperity brought via trading, and so the equity markets.
Common Prosperity has de-prospered the Chinese private sector by about $1 trillion in value. In the past year, the leaders of most of the major Chinese tech companies have “stepped aside” in one way or another. (In at least one case, “stepping aside” has meant execution by firing squad.).....It is time to trim the sails, and check the lifeboats.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2021/10/18/the-latest-jack-m…
Understanding Xi’s true program, however, means also understanding what’s really going on. I wrote it four years ago from tomorrow, and every single thing that’s happened over those years in between has validated this view:
Xi Jinping’s three-and-a-half-hour speech covered a lot of ground, but more than anything “rejuvenation” along these lines is their only choice. The NBS numbers leave little doubt on that account, certainly proved enough for Communist officials that a no-growth world was just announced, I believe, as China’s official baseline doctrine. Link
Regular readers will have noticed (below) that the Aussie benchmark yields are rising quickly. That may have been a surprise given the RBA has been quite dovish recently and made dovish comments in its released meeting minutes. But in fact, the RBA has not been out there defending its three year rate, which has allowed the whole curve to rise. Why they say one thing and do another isn't entirely clear. But the markets are noticing.
It has not purchased bonds in support of the 3-year yield target since early December (2020). Link
"The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest."
wow
94 new cases
And all unvaccinated!
Or is helen peteosis Harris spreading misinformation?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300433535/covid19-cas…
I've got to admit, I'm abit worried what's in it. I've been quite sick from the 2nd vaccine. Pretty much all the side effects I got and still feel off after several days. I wonder how many feel the same? It concerns me now, that the government are considering bringing other vaccines in - where was my choice?
What did the research say? I didn't have any side effects and was lifting weights the next day so I am hoping that means I'm kind of superhuman. I have spent the last six months, exercising, eating clean and intermittent fasting as well as taking zinc and large monthly doses of vitamin D. Also get sun exposure when I can.
I had my second jab last week and surprisingly I didn’t seem to have any side effects apart from a sore arm. In fact, I had the best sleep the two nights after the jab that I’ve had in a while. My response was so mild I thought I may have got a dud! It seems to hit people in different ways.
I had a mate who was spewing and crook for a week totally wiped out after jab 2. I had jab 1 and got freaky side effects including racing heart, pulse went to 140, I normally have low blood pressure, also waves of bizarre vertigo type symptoms, extremely sore arm and then got really depressed for days after. A neighbour got a rash within min of jab 1 all over her face and also got very depressed. I'm concerned too. It's not great.
I probably shouldn't have been so flippant about this as it is actually quite concerning. If you reacted like that to the first jab you must have some trepidation about the second one. I wonder if the experts have any data on bad reactions to the first jab and what to expect with the second. I suspect it's all rather random.
I had similar heart/pulse issues after my first jab.
I track my heart rate day and night on my smart watch (admittedly not the most scientific device, but it is what it is - I use it for sports conditioning/fitness). My resting heart rate normally sits around 57-60, but for 72hrs after the 1st vaccine it was sitting around 75-80 - which is below average for a late 20s male. I would also get massive spikes up to as much as 140bpm from climbing the stairs at home.
At the same time, I also had fairly severe "chest anxiety" (can't think of any other term ... basically super aware of my heartbeat and feeling like my heart would stop/explode if I didn't concentrate, along with tightness in the chest) and numbness on my left side where the injection was.
This tapered off over days 3-7, from near-constant to occasional episodes 3-4 times per day that would last for 20-30 mins.
I was sufficiently worried that I went to the doctor, who took my pulse, listened to my heart, and then also got me on an ECG and blood test to check for myocarditis. Thankfully everything has come back "all clear".
11 days later and I feel basically back to normal. The doctor's view is that the initial immune response effectively heightened my anxiety around the jab which in turn led to effectively psychosomatic side-effects. This is also compounded by being under a lot of stress with business and family matters (full disclosure, I was definitely hesitant to have it as worried about heart damage and will admit to only taking it because I will need to travel for work as soon as this is possible, and to help convince my mid-60s parents who were more hesitant than I and who both have health issues).
First day back in the gym (day 7) was very tough going, but I have done two cycling sessions and an 8km run since then and felt progressively better each time.
I will be honest that I'm annoyed I've had to cough up $150 on doctor's appointments and ECG tests to check I'm ok (for now) after taking a vaccine that seems to do bugger all to help someone of my age and general health/fitness. I've also lost a few days of productive work due to feeling unwell, which is a hit to my business.
On the other hand, I do accept that Covid carries the potential for a bunch of very nasty side effects as well ... doctor was eager to remind me that Covid carries a risk of myocarditis several times greater than the vaccine does (and I don't doubt the data on that)
I'll probably go back and get my second, although very much under duress. I don't mind the thought of side effects like nausea/vomiting/sore arm (not pleasant, but understandable). It's the weird racing heart rate, palpitations and overhwhelming sense of "OMG am I about to have a heart attack" that really threw me. The issue now being that as I've had this reaction the first time, I'll probably be even more attuned to this the second time around.
I had a similar experience with shortness of breath and elevated resting heart rate, i was not keen on taking the vaccine at all and waiting to see what happened overseas but thanks to Labour mismanagement of MIQ and travel bubbles leaking covid here, I had to move way earlier then i hoped. Not looking forward to the 2nd jab and will certainly be waiting longer then the 3 week reduced timeframe to cover their incompetance. Labour should have been looking overseas and seeing the vaccine is not as good as they said and building hospital capacity, instead of preening at the countrys lockdown efforts to stamp it our 3 times after they kept importing it. Lets hope this is not the begining of the "I am legend" movie.
I'll be waiting the standard interval (6-8 weeks).
You've got to laugh at the "she'll be right" attitude of dropping it to 3 weeks, just to pump the double-vaccinated numbers up to mask the slow roll out.
I'll also wait to see just how punitive life is going to become for the unvaxxed. If it's a case of not being able to go to large events, festivals etc then I'll probably hold out as long as I can (just in case the world regains its sense of sanity and vaccination efforts are focused in the most at-risk communities e.g. 65+ or co-morbidities) - especially if the government can't be bothered to let people in and out of the country without MIQ.
If I had the wherewithal to do so, I'd rather become a hermit for the next year or so than feel like I'm going to drop dead of a heart attack at the ripe old age of 28, after being forced to take something to participate in society.
" ...is proposing to urgently change the RMA to enable more houses to be built."
Densification. Every foot of land space is gold. Wise investors will lock in their bids soon.
Be quick.
I think some land just went up a lot, mostly the good land near amenities that was previously single house zone. But the less desirable land should have gone down by a similar amount, because it just doesn't make sense to build units in Otara that you can sell for 700k each when you can now be building them in Mt Eden and sell them at 1.5 mil each.
Or to put it another way, there is a pretty much a fixed demand for development land (fixed supply of builders), and the supply of developable land just went up by probably 100%. Hard to see the less desirable land not depreciating.
Or to put it yet another way, if inflation keeps running at 5%, interest rates will be so high that no one will be buying houses and this change will not matter as the market will have fully crashed.
Not really.
The more desirable land will rise in price, and to some extent the less desirable land as well (but not by as much)
Land in places like South Auckland is serving a totally different market with totally different 'price points' to land in central Auckland so I don't agree with your point.
Also zoning and planning rules is one thing, a whole lot of other things influence whether a site is readily developable. Things like slope, existing easements and covenants, access to infrastructure, flood prone land etc etc. And another biggee is the fact that many owners of land do not have interest or the means of developing.
So suddenly 20,000 theoretically developable sites becomes say 5000 realistically developable sites. Just for example.
And then we haven't even talked about development feasibility which will further reduce the number of realistically developable sites.
It's why with the Unitary plan there's a huge number of theoretically high density sites but all these other non planning constraints means the realistically developable properties are a much smaller subset and hence you see 10 developers bidding at auctions for properties.
Our vaccination numbers are looking really good. And for those that haven't done it yet, they have had ample oppourtunity so far and can get it as soon as they want.
Time for the government to announce full opening up plans, for pre Christmas (say start of Dec) because nobody is going to be adhering anyway over the Christmas break. This gives people plenty of time to be vaccinated with 2 doses. Government then needs to be looking at more doses for booster shots early next year.
In addition though, travel should be restricted completely for those that aren't vaccinated. That means no ferry/train/planes for the unvaccinated. Lots of stick and inconvenience for the unvaccinated. In addition all indoor venues and outdoor gatherings need to keep up the mask wearing.
COVID looks to be in the endemic phase now, the lockdowns bought us time to get vaccinated. Now that we are or at least should be, there's not much point to them.
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