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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; sub 5% mortgage rate, lower milk payout, building consents up, household deposits jump as do business loans, NZD sinks

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; sub 5% mortgage rate, lower milk payout, building consents up, household deposits jump as do business loans, NZD sinks

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today. Actually, you have a wide choice over what you may judge to be the most important issue of the day.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank has launched a 4.99% 18 month home loan rate. It is a rate that comes with no other incentives, it is being pitched as one where all its benefits are in the rate. Their offer will run until the end of May. Borrowers win.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
One consequence of the Cooperative Bank's very low mortgage rate, they have dropped their term deposit rates by -10 bps for all terms from 3 to 18 months. Savers lose.

DOWN AND DOWNER
Fonterra said today that it now expects what it pays for milk to be just $4.50/kgMS for current season, down from $4.70. Shareholders however did not get downgraded this time with their dividend forecast unchanged.

OCR EASING BIAS
RBNZ left the OCR at 3.5% as expected today, but said it may lower rates if demand weakens. It has removed talk of any future hikes. Along with the Fonterra announcement, this sent the NZD lower.

BUILDING CONSENTS UP BUT ...
Residential building consents were up in March but still well below last year's peak, with little joy for Auckland buyers in the latest figures.

WINNERS AND LOSERS
Owners of a big Auckland apartment building in Orewa have won $25 mln in a leaky building claim in a court decision today. There were 150 owners in the 12-level block which is in a beach side suburb. But a win for them means a loss for their fellow ratepayers as Auckland Council is now responsible for paying the entire amount, even though it did not exist when the building was built.

CRAZY FOR MORTGAGES
Last week saw 6,922 new mortgage approvals and which were worth $1.521 bln, both numbers the highest this year. The average loan approval was a record.

MONEY SUPPLY BUBBLE
The New Zealand money supply is rising fast. M3 is up +8.3% year on year, but the rise in M2 is even more spectacular, up +12%. M2 is the sum of notes and coins, on-demand savings account, plus chequing accounts. A lot of that is building up in household accounts (see below).

A TIGHTER FOCUS
Christchurch is setting up a one-stop shop for investors and developers who want to be part of the city's rebuild. A new agency, Development Christchurch will be set up under the council's commercial arm to shepherd big new development proposals and look after some of the major capital projects the council has on its books. It will also help progress the council's suburban master plans.

A GROWING LOAN APPETITE
Lending to businesses in March grew very strongly, up +7.3% year-on-year. That is according to the latest data out from the RBNZ today and is the fastest growth since early 2009. Rural credit is growing at a +6% rate, itself the fastest rate since early 2010.

FLUSH AND FLUSHER
Household deposits are also rising quickly. Household bank accounts grew more than 10% year-on-year in March, the third consecutive month that growth has been in double digits. In fact, over the past six months, growth has averaged +10%, an amazing run.

WHOLESALE RATES STEEPEN
Wholesale swap rates struggled to make sense of the US Fed's signals and the RBNZ signals. What they have settled at is a -2 bps fall for 2 year swaps up to a +6 bps rise for 10 year swaps. The rate curves have steepened sharply today with the 1-5 curve now at +11 bps and the 2-10 curve now ballooning out to +34 bps. Remember, in early February, both were virtually flat. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 3.64%.

NZ DOLLAR SINKS
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower today on the combined pressure from the OCR and Fonterra announcements. As of late this afternoon it is at 76.2 USc, 95.3 AUc, 68.5 euro cents, and the TWI is at 79.5. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

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Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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1 Comments

Interesting times indeed.

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