sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Kiwibank cuts, building consents lower, debt reaches record levels, bank account balances surge, swaps hold, NZD falls

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Monday; Kiwibank cuts, building consents lower, debt reaches record levels, bank account balances surge, swaps hold, NZD falls

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

TODAY'S MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
As we foreshadowed on Friday, Kiwibank reduced their one and two year fixed mortgage rates today. NZ Home Loans did as well.

TODAY'S DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank reduced most term deposit rates by -5 or -20 bps, but they do have a new 'special' of 3.40% for 5 months. Westpac also has a TD 'special' of 3.25% for 4 months. FE Investments also lowered their 18 month rate but raised their 2 years rate to 7%.

A SOFT PATCH I
Building consents for houses were well down in Canterbury, and only slightly higher in Auckland in January.

SOFT PATCH II
ANZ does a monthly survey of NZ business confidence and they reported it downshifted in February. Firms are still flagging reasonable prospects; it’s just that the foot is planted less firmly on the accelerator. "We put the move down to global unease. Our composite indicator still flags pretty solid prospects over the year ahead, albeit in a lower gear," they say. Pricing gauges point to continued low inflation outcomes. Still, ANZ economists changed their tune today, joining in with those who see the RBNZ cutting the OCR, probably twice to 2%.

RECORD DEBT
Debt to the rural sector increased to a record level in January, to a level just shy of $59 bln and up +8.6% year-on-year. Debt to the business sector exceeded $80 bln for the first time, up +7.5% year-on-year and its fastest growth rate since February 2009.

BLOATED DEBT
Housing debt owed to banks and other non-bank financials reached a record $213 bln in January. That is +7.8% higher year-on-year and the fastest rate of growth since before the start of the GFC (July 2008). That means we added to our housing obligation by a remarkable +$15.4 bln in the year. While that is a lot, it is still lower than the $18.4 bln splurge in the year to August 2007 which caused so much indigestion. The housing deleveraging cycle is certainly over. 76.5% of this housing debt is on fixed terms; but 58.2% of it is due to roll over with a year. That is $125 bln that is vulnerable to higher rates, or can benefit from lower rates.

SURGING BANK ACCOUNTS
While our debt is growing fast, so is our money supply. M2 is up +12.9% to $148.6 bln. Household bank accounts are now at a record $152 bln, a year-on-year rise of +11%. Compare these rises to the rises in debt and you can see 'savers' are adding to their balances faster than 'borrowers' can soak it up. Even on a dollar basis, household bank accounts went up $15.1 bln in a year.

HIGHER MINIMUMS
The adult minimum wage is to increase to $15.25 per hour on April 1, 2015. The in-traing wage minimum will go to $12.20 per hour.

WHOLESALE RATES HOLD
NZ swap rates are little changed today. The short end is down by -1 bp, the long end up by +1 bp. All rates are still either at or very near record lows. The 90-day bank bill rate is softer again by -1 bps today to 2.56%.

NZ DOLLAR BACK LOWER
The Kiwi dollar slipped back to the lower end of its range today in response to the surprisingly good US data out over the weekend. It is now at 65.8 USc, and at 92.4 AUc. The TWI-5 is at 70.9. Check our real-time charts here.

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
Daily benchmark rate
Source: RBNZ
End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

9 Comments

The debt situation can't keep on building in the way it is without some serious pain at some stage.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/28/mervyn-king-new-financi…

Up
0

The pain will be on us Penquin as they roll out TBTF 2.0

Up
0

Minimum wage to increase - is this just the government doing its bit to lift inflation?

Up
0

Is minimum wage really increasing to $15.75 ??? That's mite than 10% increase over the current $14.25.

Up
0

Crumbs! You are right to query that figure. The correct new rate is $15.25/hr (and not $15.75 as I originally noted). Sorry about that error.

Up
0

Also, to what level did Kiwibank drop their 1 & 2 year rates ?

Up
0

The changes were unremarkable and not market leading. Their 1 yr 'special went from 4.39% to 4.35%, a -4 bps change. Their 2 year 'special' went from 4.49% to 4.39%, a -10 bps reduction. You can find the comparatives here. These Kiwibank rates are still about +10 bps above their market-leading rivals. And of course, the HSBC Premier 18 month 'special' of 3.95% straddles both terms.

Up
0

Oops - dislocation is apparent.

The outstanding balance of the interbank activity plunged 79 percent to a record low of 4.51 trillion yen ($40 billion) on Feb. 25 since Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Jan. 29 announced plans to charge interest on some lenders’ reserves at the monetary authority. Read more

Up
0

With the one and two year swap rates having inverted. Does Graham Wheeler and team actually have a clue what is going on or should they consult Roger Kerr to ensure clarity in their outlook.

Up
0